2 July 2025

77 thoughts on “2017-18 Winter League HDAFU Tables

  1. Hello again Cobber,

    Yes, you are quite right and this highlights the necessity to find the inflection points in each bet type. Whether you do this with graphs or whether you look at the long list in each HDAFU table and sort the results manually is a matter of personal taste.

    What looks on the face of it like a losing system is sometimes totally transformed when you identify the sweet spot in the best performing bet type. Essentially, you will be discarding clusters of odds or odds ratios at either end of the list (or both; or even discarding a portion in the middle) until you reach a point where you can no longer improve on the bottom line. Check if the clusters you have chosen made a profit in each of the last five seasons and if they did, you have found an ideal candidate for including in a portfolio.

    Sometimes, a combination of sorting by odds clusters (e.g. home and then away) or by ratios (e.g. HxDxA and then Away/Home), or by a mixture of odds clusters and odds ratios will be needed to find the most lucrative combination. It’s trial and error to some degree.

    Try sorting the long list by home odds. Then look down the long list in each bet type or use a formula at the bottom of each column such as =max(range:range) to see the highest figure each bet type reached at a particular point during the five seasons. Then choose the bet type which shows the highest figure to analyse first. By chopping out unprofitable clusters, what you are left with is the real potential of that bet type.

    To summarise, the HDAFU tables exist to show you what is best to bet on in each league and once you have chosen which bet types to analyse, it is up to you to filter and achieve the optimum result possible. If you cut out all the unprofitable sectors you will be targeting games where historically betting profits have been made. If you then only bet within your filter parameters, then each bet you make will effectively be a ‘value’ bet.

    As mentioned frequently above, concentrate on Premier Leagues in each country only. Lack of demand for bets in lower leagues leads to bigger overrounds (basic supply and demand) and anyone betting perpetually in this situation is automatically handing the long term advantage of ‘value’ straight to the bookmaker.

    Thanks for you valued contribution and I hope this helps!

  2. Hi,

    I’m confused and I hope you can provide guidance.

    I use the HDAFU spreadsheets to determine a systematized bet for a particular league e.g. bet draw on ‘x’ league when draw odds are 3.5. For a particular round of matches, 3 bets are identified. I could straight bet on the three draws, however I then use the True Odds & value detector sheet to determine value bets for the 3 matches. None of the value bets identified are draws. I don’t bet on the draws, however 2 out of the 3 matches results in draws.

    Please can you assist me with this predicament? Its frustrating and not sure which spreadsheet to believe?

    Thanks

    P.s. love the quality of articles on the site – keep up the great work 🙂

    1. Hi Jason,

      the HDAFU tables and the Value Calculator are two completely different tools.

      The HDAFU table are for systematic betting – finding a strategy like you give as an example: Bet draw in ‘x’ league when draw odds are 3.5. The tables strength is finding the inflection points where systematic betting is possible.

      The Value Calculator, on the other hand, is for fans of odds calculation. It calculates the probabilities of an event happening for individual matches. This tool is, strongly speaking, not usable for systematic betting as each match has to calculated individually what is pretty time-consuming.

      Sorry for the confusion, and I promise that at some stage within the next 12 months I will write a comprehensive course on 1×2 betting. including the VC as well as the HDAFU tables.

      1. Thanks for the response Soccerwidow.

        Another question – in your back/lay formula, there is a calculation i’m not sure on and how you get to those numbers: column / column >= 1.15 and column/column <= 0.85. What is the significance of this portion of the calculation and how did you get to 1.15 and 0.85?

        Looking forward to that course in the future

  3. Hi Jason,

    Not quite sure what part of the HDAFU table spreadheet you are referring to as in the Odds Ratios clusters, the higher number will always be on the right hand side – using your figures, the cluster would be described as >0.85 <=1.15. If it is this area you are referring to then these cluster figures have been calculated by dividing the entire match list into roughly equal groups, and the 'greater than' and 'less than or equal to' parameters are purely the boundaries of each cluster group. It's a pretty sophisticated system for sorting the data that we employ to make these divisions, and I can't (in simple terms) explain how we do it. Just suffice to say that we sort and divide the data automatically and fine tune manually. Of course, if you want to play around with the cluster groups, simply over-write the figures with your own. So long as the bottom line P/L figure remains unlatered and the number of games Pld and Won still match those of the other ratios, then you can't go far wrong. Jason, I hope I've answered your question but let me know more specifically if I'm missing your point. Thanks again for your contribution.

  4. I think you may have misunderstood me – the calculation is for the automatic back/lay column in the true value calculator spreadsheet. In the automatic back/lay formula, there is a >= 1.15 and a <= 0.85. I am struggling to understand how you guys came to that number and calculation? Please could you provide some clarification on it?

  5. Hi Jason,

    Now I understand. The 1.15 and 0.85 figures appear in the formulas for First Half Goals (over and under 1.5) in the Value Calculator Spreadsheet.

    These are purely manual calibrations based on observations of our collection of over 1,000 completed sheets.

    The 0.85 and 1.15 adjustments bring the calculations within an acceptable error rate of +/-3%.

    I certainly do not want to explain any further how these figures were arrived at or indeed wish to divulge our trade secrets, but once again this is evidence that mathematics is never an exact science – there will always be an error rate in any statistical calculations.

    Thanks again for taking the trouble to write!

  6. Hi Soccerwidow / Right Winger,

    i would like your company to provide some tutorial to us for using Profit/Loss Simulation Tables that recently i had bought it.

    Thanks & Regards,
    Thien

  7. Hi Thien,

    Please check out the knowledge base articles that are linked towards the end of the following article:

    https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/systems/hda-1×2-betting-profit-loss-simulation-tables/

    Archived instructional videos are here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03LGr5V5b3M

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-l52QV6pdo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8uRxwn6TIE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XRzNnQpTKU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCVE7QVBMmo

    These will give you an idea how to sort the tables to find the sweet spots. Otherwise, another useful article is the Inflection Points tutorial here:

    https://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/odds-calculation-en/inflection-points-football-betting-odds/

    Thanks for taking the trouble to write and best of luck!

  8. Hi Right Winger,

    in your comment from 25th of September you mentioned that you’re not sure if there will be new HDAFU tables in the future.

    Can you tell us more regarding the Summer Leauges ?

    Thanks

  9. Hello again Manfred,

    It is likely that we will continue with Full-Time HDAFU tables only – no-one seems to want the Half-Time tables.

    The updated Summer League tables will be ready and available for sale in around 10-14 days’ time.

    Thanks for your question and no doubt we’ll talk with you again soon.

  10. Hello,

    I’ve just purchased some HDAFU tables. However, in the “data” tab, where there are Bookmakers’ highest Odds.
    I wonder the web site that you took the data since i want the exact data to compare with the Betbrain (i often use to archive the highest odd before kick-off for calculating my odds toggle purpose).

    For instance, in your HDAFU for Bundesliga (backing home team to win), odds clusters 2.00 – 2.10 positive result and 1.92 – 2.00 negative. So if i i look for the highest odd before kick-off at Betbrain is 2.01 but your data source is 1.99. It’ll be a bias selection, am i right?

    Can you help to clarify ?

    Thank you

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