24 June 2025

48 thoughts on “HDAFU Tables: £10k in 178 days with the Summer Leagues

  1. Hi Right Winger!
    How do you split the seasons for the mid-season break? Some seasons have their holiday breaks before the official closing of the first round of games (for example, although this changed in this year, the Italian Serie A had their holiday break just before Christmas, until around a week in the beginning of January, but the first round of games was finishing only one week later. So how do you choose when to split the season in a case like this? Is it on the longer holiday break, making the two halfs slightly different in terms of length, or just the official end of the round?
    Thanks in advance for your reply

    1. Hi Daniel,

      Yes, it’s the holiday break – sometimes the two halves of a season do differ in length, but only by a few games and this is not likely to have much statistical significance on the results.

      We split wherever the ‘clean break’ is in the middle of a season.

  2. Right Winger,

    let’s suppose for a match on the HDAFU analysis two teams have the same odds. How do you ensure the correct calculations when the system have to count favourites and underdogs? How can Excel manage to understand which one is the real favourite? Maybe you just shorten one of the two by a 0.01 to achieve this purpose?

    1. Hello again Daniele,

      If you’re using Oddsportal to check the odds, and the highest odds are the same for both teams, use the Average Odds as a tie-break.

      Whichever team has the higher average odds, make them the underdog, and vice versa.

      I have never seen a match where the highest odds are the same as each other, and where the average odds are the same as each other.

      For the sake of the HDAFU tables, we do occasionally increase the underdog odds by one tick as you suggest, but this happens so rarely that it should not be a statistical concern at all.

      Hope this helps.

  3. Hi! Congrats on articles!
    I have a tricky question: what happens if “a lot of users” start to use these methods at the same time, finding the same spots for an eventual profit? Wouldn’t these strategies start to become obsolete?

    Thanks!

    1. Hi Gabriel,

      Firstly, we are not giving away systems – merely the tools for individuals to decide upon their own strategies.

      As mentioned in the articles, everyone has their own levels of acceptable risk and, therefore, each person’s portfolio of chosen systems and bets will be different from the next person’s.

      Add to this the facts that each punter will be playing with different levels of stakes and have access to different sets of bookmaker and/or betting exchange accounts.

      Also, one person may not be as disciplined as another regarding the placement of every betting opportunity.

      Therefore, I would say that it is highly unlikely that you will see any noticeable betting patterns affecting the market as a result of any systems being followed by Soccerwidow readers.

    1. Hi Tim,

      When we began the 2016 Summer League campaign, we started off with £2,000 in various accounts.

      But the official bank size on paper was set arbitrarily at £1,500 to cope with the longest possible losing streak of any one system. Our analysis showed this was 15 losing bets in a row in the Japanese J-League away win strategy.

      I say ‘arbitrarily’ because we never expected to lose 15 bets in a row with all the systems overlapping and supporting one another.

      Thanks for your question.

  4. Hello again Tim,

    Well, one of our accounts is Smarkets, whose commission rate is 2%, so we do use exchanges ourselves.

    Of course, if you wish to use Betfair, then their 5% commission rate will certainly take a chunk of your profits away.

    However, the system should still work – it just won’t earn you as much profit…

  5. I can suggest to have a look at Sportmarket Pro. It’s a multiplatform broker like Vodds that includes exchanges like Betfair at 2.5% fixed commisison, Betdaq at 1.2% fixed commission and Matchbook at 1.8% fixed commission ON WINNING BETS only, instead of every bet (winning and losing) like betting on Matchbook website. They also have Pinnacle, SBOBET, and all the major asian bookies. I used them for almost a year now and they are very professional and fast in their withdrawals also. Definitely check it out!

  6. Hi,

    How do you pick the clusters that you want to use, is there a methodology behind it? I have purchased the Netherlands HDAFU tables but was wondering why they are set the way they are and the thinking behind it.

    1. Hi Jamie,

      I’m not sure what you are referring to precisely?

      Do you mean the Inflection Points graph itself, or choosing which systems to go with that are highlighted by the graph?

      1. I am referring to the cluster sizes. How do you set them or decide on them? How do you group them and work them out and could this be changed or would it matter?

  7. Hello again Jamie,

    I can’t teach you how to use Excel, but the cluster sizes are determined by Excel’s maximum number of 200 reference points for producing graphs.

    This is a limitation that has always been a barrier in Excel, thus we can only produce 200 “clusters” in any one table.

    To be honest, it doesn’t make much difference: 200 clusters is plenty, and you will see that some odds account for multiple numbers of clusters – e.g. draw odds of 3.40 might account for several clusters of their own, whilst odds of 1.06 to 1.10 might be contained in a single cluster.

    Even if you could change it in Excel, it wouldn’t make much difference – you are still able to fine tune the results by looking at the data tab to determine where the profitable ends of the inflection points graph start (see the User Guide).

    Be sure to read the comments in the Winter League summary, which also contain a mine of useful hints and tips.

  8. Hi, I’m just wondering if a portfolio made up of various systems selected properly as you explained may end up with an actual negative yield…did it ever happen to you?
    Thank you and congratulations for the great website!

    1. Hi Mark, although normally it shouldn’t you can never say never.

      Targetting the sweet point in the odds using the HDAFU Tables you are targetting low probabilities and I’m sure that you experienced in your life probably even more than once that, when you were throwing a dice (16.67% probability for a ‘1’, for example) that you had to wait for 20 (or even more) rounds until the first ‘1’ was thrown. It probably happened to you only once in your life but certainly not ‘never’. In that case, you may have experienced a ‘negative yield’ should you have included the ‘1’ in your portfolio of bets.

      Hope that makes sense.

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