2019 Summer League HDAFU Tables – Campaign Report: £8k+ in 288 Days!


The best test of any theory is always how it works in practice:

Below is the full account of our FT 1X2 results campaign for the 2019 ‘Summer Leagues’ based around Soccerwidow’s HDAFU ~ Home – Draw – Away – Favourite – Underdog Tables.

419 bets in 288 days = min. £8,433 profit from £100 unit flat stakes

The final profit curve for the 2019 Summer League Campaign (comprising all 419 bets) is shown below:

2019 Summer League Campaign Profit Curve

 
The systems employed in each league were all picked based on observations of the profit curves produced from the accumulated data (match odds and results) of the previous five complete seasons.

Read on to find out exactly how and why we picked the systems we did…

Campaign Report 2019 Summer Leagues

If you would like the accompaniment for this article please click on the button below to get your FREE 2019 Summer League Campaign spreadsheet, which pares down each system to individual match detail.

>>> 2019 summer league campaign <<<


(Then click on the green Checkout button, fill in your name/email address details and press Submit Order. A download link will then be sent to your email address – and it won’t cost you a penny! Check your junk mail if it doesn’t arrive in your inbox immediately).

How the Systems Were Chosen

Our long-held tried and tested method is to use the HO/AO quotient (i.e. the figure derived from dividing the home odds by the away odds) as the most reliable benchmark for categorising an individual match and allow comparisons or groupings with others.

Employing the quotients of all matches in a league over the previous five complete seasons provides a significant data set with which to carry out in-depth analyses.

Then, by producing graphs for each of the Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog results, it is easy to visualise betting results and trends.

Constructing a balanced portfolio of ‘systems’ in our chosen leagues is then just a matter of identifying and choosing historically lucrative segments of the profit curves upon which to target our bets in the forthcoming season.

For the purposes of diversification, we chose two systems for each league: one representing the 1st half of the season and the other for the 2nd half of the season.

In all of the leagues summarised below, you will see images taken directly from the 2019 HDAFU tables. (Containing the data from the five seasons prior: from 2014 to 2018)

When deciding upon which segment of the profit/loss curves to choose as our systems in each league, we compared the relevant 1st and 2nd half-season graphs (i.e. representing half of the data set in each case) with that representing the Whole Season (the whole of the data set).

If the segment of interest in, say, the 1st half-season graph was mirrored to some degree in the Whole Season analysis, then it was considered more likely to be influential on the whole-of-season picture. Ditto with the 2nd half-season.

In almost every case, you will see visual similarities between the chosen half-season system and the whole-of-season graph, whereas the graph belonging to the other half of the season is usually very different.

However, in a few examples, the chosen segment of the graph is mirrored in all three graphs (1st, 2nd and Whole-of-season), making it even more likely that the chosen system for the future had a significant influence on the historical picture across the previous five seasons.

Judgment of Risk

You will find a Risk Table (Image 8) and explanatory commentary in our dedicated risk judgment article.

League-by-League Breakdown

In alphabetical order…

League 01) Brazil: Série A

System 1 – 1st Half: Away Win
High-risk

Here, the visually similar peaks in the profit curves between the 1st half and whole-of-season graphs were indicative of a potentially lucrative system:

(Clicking on all of the images below enlarges them in a new tab):

Brazil Série A: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs

Brazil Série A: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


The beginning and end of the peak in the 1st half-season graph corresponded with HO/AO quotients between 0.104 and 0.167. These points have also been marked in the whole-of-season graph alongside to show how similar these two graphs look. This is a high-risk system with odds between around 9.00 and 16.50 (top row label).

By comparison, the 2nd half-season graph looks very different:

Brazil Série A: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph

Brazil Série A: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph


As you can see, there is a similar peak towards the left-hand side of the 2nd half graph, but it corresponds to odds of around 6.00 to 8.00.

Between odds of 6.00 and 8.00 in the whole-of-season graph above is a less definite picture containing peaks and troughs of ‘statistical noise’.

To conclude, the 1st half-season system of choosing away wins between HO/AO quotients of 0.104 and 0.167 seems to be more influential on the overall picture in this league.


RESULT

In our campaign from 28/04 to 15/09/2019, there was a total of 17 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 15 of these bets lost and only two won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 8.45 to 12.39.

However, the two bets that won were sufficiently high priced to earn this system a profit.

Profit: £366.00

Running Total: £366.00



System 2 – 2nd Half: Home Win
High-risk

Brazil Série A: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs

Brazil Série A: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Hopefully, these graphs are now self-explanatory. Once again, the section of the profit curve peaking in the 2nd half-season graph in Brazil is mirrored in the whole-of-season graph alongside it.

And again, the 1st half-season graph looks very different:

Brazil Série A: 1st Half-Season Home Win Graph

Brazil Série A: 1st Half-Season Home Win Graph


Our chosen system incorporates HO/AO quotients between 1.157 and 1,607, which correspond to odds of around 2.95 to 3.50.

In the 1st half graph, this area does show an incline but it represents a gain of fewer than 1,000 units.

By comparison, the 2nd half-season system employed spanned a gain of 2,500 units in the previous five seasons. (Between 2,930 and 5,412 units)

The equivalent whole-of-season graph shows a gain of 3,400 units. (Between 3,979 and 7,394 units)

RESULT

In our campaign from 22/09 to 01/12/2019, there was a total of 13 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Seven of these bets lost and six won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.01 to 3.45.

Profit: £588.00

Running Total: £954.00


League 02) China: Super League

System 3 – 1st Half: Away Win
Low-risk

China Super League: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs

China Super League: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


There weren’t many similarities between the 1st half and whole-of-season graphs in China and only the very tail of the profit curve seemed to be an acceptable match.

But, the away win selections highlighted in the chosen quotient of 3.332 to 15.175 were all odds-on favourites between around 1.20 and 1.80.

The 2nd half-season graph did not show anything as pronounced in this area.

China Super League: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph

China Super League: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph


As you can see from the labels shown on the combined graphs above the five-season profit figure in this HO/AO zone totalled only 500-600 units.

We knew from the outset that we wouldn’t be playing for massive gains with this 1st half system.

But, when there is little else to find in the analysis, choosing a low-risk system or a home-win or a favourite-based system are the prudent choices.


RESULT

In our campaign from 30/03 to 30/06/2019, there was a total of six bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Two of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 1.37 to 1.60.

Profit: £21.00

Running Total: £975.00



System 4 – 2nd Half: Draw
High-risk

China Super League: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

China Super League: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


Here, the whole-of-season graph showed a massive historical profit exceeding 9,000 units over five seasons between the chosen quotients of 0.455 and 0.988. (the closest mark of 0.451 is shown on this graph owing to the shortcomings of Excel graphs)

Looking at the 1st half-season graph it was evident that the draw in the second half of the Chinese season showed the stronger trendline.

China Super League: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph

China Super League: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


Odds for the draw between the chosen quotients were roughly 3.30 to 4.30.

The upper quotient wasn’t extended further: it could have been taken to the next and final peak of around 1.07.

However, it was decided that the final peak represented diminishing returns for a higher risk.

On the 2nd half-season graph you can see before the last peak after 0.988 was a trough of roughly equal size. Therefore, the chances of increasing the profit beyond the 0.988 parameters were roughly 50/50 (i.e. ‘heads’ and the bottom line increases; ‘tails’ and it reduces – this snakes-and-ladders game wasn’t worth playing).

RESULT

In our campaign from 06/07 to 27/11/2019, there was a total of 26 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 18 of these bets lost and eight won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.32 to 4.29.

Profit: £355.00

Running Total: £1,330.00


League 03) Finland: Veikkausliiga

System 5 – 1st Half: Draw
High-risk

Finland Veikkausliiga: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

Finland Veikkausliiga: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The nice peak showing on the 1st half-season graph between quotients of 0.443 and 0.522 was mirrored well in the whole-of-season graph.

It may seem paradoxical that this part of the curve appears below the profit line in the graph (i.e. in the ‘red’) but as you can see the curve begins around -5,000 units and climbs to around -2,000 units, meaning the results in this sector are combining to create a profit of around +3,000 units (i.e. an improvement from -5,000 to -2,000).

The 2nd half-season graph was again very different.

Finland Veikkausliiga: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph

Finland Veikkausliiga: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph


A second possibility was the peak on the right-hand side of both curves in the double-image above between the quotients of 2.802 and 8.911.

But, as you can see from the odds label at the top of these graphs, a system in this zone would involve backing draws at considerably longer odds (i.e. a far higher risk system), and with only 2,000 units profit made in the previous five seasons.




RESULT

In our campaign from 03/04 to 19/06/2019, there was a total of five bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Four of these bets lost and only one won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.33 to 3.63.

Loss: -£137.00

Running Total: £1,193.00



System 6 – 2nd Half: Favourite
High-risk

Finland Veikkausliiga: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Favourite Win Combined Graphs

Finland Veikkausliiga: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Favourite Win Combined Graphs


There was a lot of statistical noise in the 2nd half-season graph and only one peak of any interest.

The 1st half-season graph showed once again what huge differences exist between the 1st and 2nd halves of league seasons as far as match results and odds are concerned.

Finland Veikkausliiga: 1st Half-Season Favourite Win Graph

Finland Veikkausliiga: 1st Half-Season Favourite Win Graph


The five-season profit was around 1,700 units between the chosen quotients of 0.694 and 0.790.

Dividing this by five to give a seasonal expectation meant that nothing spectacular could be expected from this system.

However, the favourites alluded to would all be home favourites between odds of 2.30 and 2.45 meaning that a profit would be secured even if there were an equal number of winning and losing bets.


RESULT

In our campaign from 27/07 to 19/10/2019, there was a total of four bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Two of these bets lost and two won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.33 to 2.43.

Profit: £68.00

Running Total: £1,261.00


League 04) Iceland: Úrvalsdeild

System 7 – 1st Half: Home Win
Medium-risk

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Another couple of similar-looking graphs, both strikingly different from the 2nd half-season results.

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph


The chosen quotients of 0.527 and 0.929 (0.515 being the nearest point available on the whole-of-season graph) targeted a tranche of home favourites.

The home odds for these bets were likely to be between around 2.00 and 2.60.

Dividing the five-season profit figure of the proposed system produced an expectation of just 400 units profit per season.



RESULT

In our campaign from 27/04 to 06/07/2019, there was a total of 18 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Seven of these bets lost and 11 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.09 to 2.56.

Profit: £668.00

Running Total: £1,929.00



System 8 – 2nd Half: Draw
High-risk

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The selected portion of the graph is around 40% the length of the whole, so we can expect to bet on around 40% of matches (25-26 games) during the second half of the season.

Once again, the 1st half-season graph bears little resemblance.

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph

Iceland Úrvalsdeild: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


The quotients between 1.108 and 4.304 inclusive are aimed at draws carrying odds between 3.35 and 4.75.

In all cases, the away team will be the favourite to win the match.

Expectations are higher than the 1st half-season home win system (here, around 700 units per season on average) but, with higher rewards on offer, the risks are also greater.



RESULT

In our campaign from 13/07 to 22/09/2019, there was a total of 20 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 14 of these bets lost and six won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.44 to 4.21.

Profit: £188.00

Running Total: £2,117.00


League 05) Ireland: Premier League

System 9 – 1st Half: Home Win
High-risk

Ireland Premier League: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs

Ireland Premier League: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Another two similar-looking graphs – note a similar rising curve at the same points in the 2nd half-season picture, which adds promise to this system.

Ireland Premier League: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph

Ireland Premier League: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph


Here, we are looking at quotients spanning 1.448 and 2.584.

This places the home win bets in a zone of odds between around 3.40 and 5.00: In other words, every bet we make will be on a home underdog to win.

The rewards are not great (around 500 units per season on average), but there is little else to aim in the 1st half of the season in this league.

It may be high-risk, but the consolation is that it is also a home-win-based system.

RESULT

In our campaign from 22/02 to 18/05/2019, there was a total of 15 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 11 of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.42 to 4.81.

Profit: £158.00

Running Total: £2,275.00



System 10 – 2nd Half: Away Win
High-risk

Ireland Premier League: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs

Ireland Premier League: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


The curve beginning near to 0.204 and peaking around 0.233 looks more appealing than the one we chose, but remember that the more vertical the peak, the fewer bets will be involved. It can also be the sign of an anomaly created by one or two out-of-kilter results. Hence why gentler upward peaks from left to right are usually a far better bet.

The 1st half-season picture contains a similar shallow rise towards the right-hand side of the profit curve but, like the other two graphs, this is in a zone where odds-on favourites are winning very small increments to the bottom line (amounts which are barely worth the work involved).

Ireland Premier League: 1st Half-Season Away Win Graph

Ireland Premier League: 1st Half-Season Away Win Graph


The chosen quotients of 0.398 and 0.738 contain a zone of away odds between around 3.15 and 4.75.

All of our bets will, therefore, be backing away underdogs to win.

Remembering the more vertical spike from earlier, you will see the odds there are far higher (between around 6.80 and 7.50). At these odds, it would only take one or two anomalous results to produce a misleading peak of this nature.


RESULT

In our campaign from 31/05 to 22/10/2019, there was a total of 12 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Eight of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.25 to 4.54.

Profit: £434.00

Running Total: £2,709.00


League 06) Japan: J-League 1

System 11 – 1st Half: Away Win
Medium-risk

Japan J-League 1: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs

Japan J-League 1: 1st Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


The five-season 1st half picture suggests an average of 1,000 units on offer per season for the chosen system of quotients between 0.695 and 1.015.

The 2nd half-season image suggests a reversal of fortunes between these marks.

Japan J-League 1: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph

Japan J-League 1: 2nd Half-Season Away Win Graph


In terms of odds, most of the bets we are expecting to place will be away underdogs.

However, those over 1.000 (before 1.015) will be slight favourites to win.

Looking at the 1st half-season image, the odds range of our bet placements is likely to be between around 2.60 and 3.40.

It is worth noting that Japan always seems to contain an away win system in one half of the season or the other.


RESULT

In our campaign from 23/02 to 30/06/2019, there was a total of 42 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 25 of these bets lost and 17 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.60 to 3.41.

Profit: £705.00

Running Total: £3,414.00



System 12 – 2nd Half: Draw
High-risk

Japan J-League 1: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

Japan J-League 1: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The peak that was chosen as the 2nd half-season system also appears in the 1st half-season image.

Japan J-League 1: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph

Japan J-League 1: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


Here, the quotients of 0.189 and 0.328 (0.331 the closest available point in the whole-of-season graph) indicate odds in the region of 3.75 to 5.50.

And, at this end of the scale, the matches included were likely to be between odds-on home favourites and longer-priced away underdogs.

But the fact the peak in the profit curve showed in both the 1st and 2nd half-season graphs was indicative of a good chance of repeated profits from this zone.


RESULT

In our campaign from 07/07 to 07/12/2019, there was a total of 12 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Eight of these bets lost and four won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.72 to 5.36.

Profit: £445.00

Running Total: £3,859.00


League 07) Norway: Eliteserien

System 13 – 1st Half: Home Win
Medium-risk

Norway Eliteserien: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs

Norway Eliteserien: 1st Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Despite a lot of statistical noise in the two graphs above, the zone chosen suggested a similar return from both: a five-season haul of around 2,000 units, or 400 on average per season.

The 2nd half-season graph suggested half the size of reward between the same quotient points.

Norway Eliteserien: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph

Norway Eliteserien: 2nd Half-Season Home Win Graph


The quotients of 1.019 and 2.133 suggested home wins in the region of odds between 2.70 and just above 4.00.

In reality, every bet would be backing a home underdog, although not a great distance apart from the away favourite odds.

The profit curve for the 1st half-season contains many jagged peaks and troughs and, at these odds, it was expected that more bets would lose than would win.


RESULT

In our campaign from 31/03 to 15/07/2019, there was a total of 29 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 18 of these bets lost and 11 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.74 to 4.11.

Profit: £778.00

Running Total: £4,637.00



System 14 – 2nd Half: Away Win
High-risk

Norway Eliteserien: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs

Norway Eliteserien: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Away Win Combined Graphs


For the 2nd half-season system, a five-season historical profit of over 3,000 units attracted us to the first peak in the away win graph.

In the 1st half-season graph, there was a similar rise in the profit curve but the five-season haul was around 2,000 units.

Norway Eliteserien: 1st Half-Season Away Win Graph

Norway Eliteserien: 1st Half-Season Away Win Graph


As you can see from the 2nd half graph above, our away back bets were all likely to be underdogs – not rank outsiders, but the odds were in the range from around 4.60 to 5.80.

The part of the curve containing our system existed within a fairly narrow margin, so not many bets were expected.

But, at the odds highlighted in the graph, not many bets would need to win to turn a profit here.



RESULT

In our campaign from 04/08 to 01/12/2019, there was a total of 11 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Eight of these bets lost and three won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 4.55 to 5.56.

Profit: £348.00

Running Total: £4,985.00


League 08) South Korea: K League 1

System 15 – 1st Half: Draw
Medium-risk

South Korea K League 1: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

South Korea K League 1: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


Two very similar-looking graphs including a long and steadily increasing profit line.

The 2nd half-season graph is once again very different in appearance.

South Korea K League 1: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph

South Korea K League 1: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph


Our chosen system spanned quotient points from 0.639 to 3.993 (4.435 the closest point of reference in the whole-of-season graph) and represents around two-thirds of all matches during the 1st half of the season.

The potential rewards are large – around 6,000 units profit from the five-season historical trend or 1,200 per season on average.

The season is 228 matches in length. Our expectations were around 75 bets (66% of 114).


RESULT

In our campaign from 01/03 to 07/07/2019, there was a total of 79 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 54 of these bets lost and 25 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.87 to 4.50.

Profit: £684.00

Running Total: £5,669.00



System 16 – 2nd Half: Draw
Medium-risk

South Korea K League 1: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

South Korea K League 1: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


An interesting league from the perspective that the draw looked profitable in both halves of the season but at different sets of quotients.

A reminder of the 1st half graph in isolation is shown below.

South Korea K League 1: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph

South Korea K League 1: 1st Half-Season Draw Graph


In the 2nd half-season, the quotients that were chosen, 0.701 to 0.887, were part of the 1st half-season system but the rest of that system was not historically profitable in the 2nd half.

Here, we are looking at draws between well-matched teams, with the home team being the slight favourite in each case.

The quotients represent a small margin of the entire graph, so we are not expecting anywhere near as many bets as in the 1st half-season.


RESULT

In our campaign from 20/07 to 30/11/2019, there was a total of 14 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Nine of these bets lost and five won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 3.03 to 3.52.

Profit: £265.00

Running Total: £5,934.00


League 09) Sweden: Allsvenskan

System 17 – 1st Half: Draw
Medium-risk

Sweden Allsvenskan: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs

Sweden Allsvenskan: 1st Half & Whole-Season Draw Combined Graphs


The chosen section in the above graphs is, to some degree, mirrored at 0.405 to 0.631 in the 2nd half-season graph below.

Sweden Allsvenskan: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph

Sweden Allsvenskan: 2nd Half-Season Draw Graph


Our chosen parameters of 0.380 to 0.895 encompass games involving closely-matched teams but where the home side is the favourite in each case.

The feel from the odds range is that every match selected ‘could go either way’, which is always prime territory for backing the draw.

The five-season historical profit is over 3,750 units or around 750 on average per season.



RESULT

In our campaign from 01/04 to 15/07/2019, there was a total of 36 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 19 of these bets lost and 17 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.99 to 3.80.

Profit: £2,100.00

Running Total: £8,034.00



System 18 – 2nd Half: Underdog
High-risk

Sweden Allsvenskan: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Underdog Combined Graphs

Sweden Allsvenskan: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Underdog Combined Graphs


There wasn’t much to get excited about in this analysis, especially so when looking at the fruitless descent of the 1st half-season underdog graph below.

Sweden Allsvenskan: 1st Half-Season Underdog Graph

Sweden Allsvenskan: 1st Half-Season Underdog Graph


In the chosen portion of our graphs, we are looking at games between fairly evenly-matched teams where the away side is the slight underdog in each case.

The ‘could go either way’ factor might be beneficial if enough underdogs prevail at the higher odds they ultimately must carry (i.e. more ‘value’) to offset the weight of money placed on the favourites.

The margins are once again narrow between 0.666 and 0.943, so not a huge number of games are expected to qualify for betting upon.

And underdog betting usually suits the second half of a season:

  • Teams towards the lower echelons of a league tend to fight harder for survival
  • Perhaps a team near the bottom has already faced most of its toughest matches in the first half of the programme and goes into the second half at misleadingly longer odds to win its games


RESULT

In our campaign from 20/07 to 28/10/2019, there was a total of 15 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 10 of these bets lost and five won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.74 to 3.45.

Profit: £68.00

Running Total: £8,102.00


League 10) U.S.A.: Major League Soccer

System 19 – 1st Half: Favourite
Medium-risk

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 1st Half & Whole-Season Favourite Combined Graphs

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 1st Half & Whole-Season Favourite Combined Graphs


A small window of opportunity, which was mirrored in the 2nd half-season graph below – the 1st half quotients are also marked on the 2nd half-season image to highlight the similarity.

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 2nd Half Favourite Graph

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 2nd Half Favourite Graph


The narrow margin between 0.875 and 0.960 indicates few bets will qualify to be placed.

But from the historical perspective, this small zone has accrued over 2,000 units of profit in the previous five seasons.

All teams backed will be slight home favourites in very evenly matched games.

Neither many bets nor huge profits were expected.

With several hundred games in this league during a season, and with the format regularly changing (i.e. increasing numbers of teams in recent seasons) we felt that choosing systems in the M.L.S. with fewer potential selections would be better for the overall health of our portfolio.

RESULT

In our campaign from 31/03 to 02/06/2019, there was a total of five bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. Three of these bets lost and two won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 2.55 to 2.66.

Profit: £14.00

Running Total: £8,116.00



System 20 – 2nd Half: Home Win
Medium-risk

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 2nd Half & Whole-Season Home Win Combined Graphs


Here is another example of a system’s quotients also appearing to be profitable in the counterpart half of the league.

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 1st Half Home Win Graph

U.S.A. Major League Soccer: 1st Half Home Win Graph


The quotients that were chosen between 0.353 to 0.518 also form part of a rising part of the profit curve in the 1st half-season graph.

All of the bets expected will be home favourites at odds of 2.00 or below and above 1.60.

At these odds, the hit rate must remain high to make a profit knowing that approximately one-quarter of all games in the 2nd half-season will qualify for betting.

This is a medium-risk system with the potential for low gains. But, in keeping with our philosophy about concentrating upon more stable leagues, it also had the security of potentially low losses.

RESULT

In our campaign from 04/07 to 06/10/2019, there was a total of 40 bets satisfying the HO/AO criteria. 16 of these bets lost and 24 won. The odds of the bets placed ranged from 1.69 to 2.00.

Profit: £327.00

Grand Total: £8,443.00


Conclusion

The overall profit total was pleasing and, to reiterate, the profit curve graph at the start of this article shows what would have been achieved with flat 100 unit stakes.

However, by using a ratcheting system to incrementally increase stakes in tandem with stop-loss stake reduction at 85% of the bank each round, the profit figure would have been almost 10k higher. Ratcheting without stop-loss in place, in this case, would have netted a figure almost 14k higher.

We will shortly be publishing an article showing an articulate staking plan in action on this portfolio of bets.

The hit rate achieved was just over 38% using predominantly medium and high-risk systems, with just one low-risk system in use.

But, it should be noted that 64% of the bets placed were low-medium risk (269 bets), whilst 36% were in high-risk systems (150 bets).

The longest losing streak was only nine bets (once). The longest winning streak was eight bets (twice).

Of course, the stark reality of the campaign sticks out like a sore thumb in the profit curve graph. Using flat stakes, betting could have been stopped in mid-September having achieved the level of profit registered by mid-December. In effect, the last three months of the portfolio were a zero-sum game. Hindsight always offers up a wonderful reality check.

Emphasis on Strategy

In a word, the strategy is diversification.

Using all 10 of the Summer League HDAFU tables available we decided this term to maximise the number of systems gleaned from them by choosing a 1st half and a 2nd half-season system from each league. In other words, using the 10 tables to come up with a total of 20 different systems.

(See 6) Example and Summary in this link to illustrate why we split the profit and loss curves into the halves of each season.

The other important reason for splitting each Summer League into two systems (and ignoring whole season systems in all Summer Leagues), is the fact that the leagues themselves are not as popular with punters as the main European leagues.

Because of the lack of demand in some areas of the Summer Leagues (i.e. less money wagered makes it harder for bookmakers to balance their book), odds are sometimes adversely affected with higher over-rounds: In other words, there are less ‘value’ opportunities available for punters.

In addition, a tendency exists for bookmakers to react to historical results trends at the beginning of a new season by lowering odds across the board to counter the efficacy of punters trying to take advantage of them.

Therefore, without the ability to second-guess what is likely to happen with the odds trends in games not yet played, by concentrating on one bet type in any league for no longer than half a season, the chances of picking a system discriminated against by the bookmakers are minimised as much as is possible.

Also, if a system is going to go wrong, then better to limit the damage to half a season, rather then endure the misery of continuing losses (and hoping in vain that they improve) throughout the full term.

Final Words

Soccerwidow uses the term ‘Summer Leagues’ to describe those where the season begins and ends during the same calendar year.

In other words, leagues outside the usual format of those beginning in one calendar year and completing in the next (what we call ‘Winter Leagues’).

Although our own HDAFU campaigns are traditionally a mixture of ‘Summer’ and ‘Winter’ leagues it is difficult to provide a summary of the whole due to its overlapping and ever-running nature. In effect, the Soccerwidow campaign is one long, never-ending portfolio: The betting equivalent of perpetual motion.

In this way, it is as close to the bookmakers’ own business model as possible but on a micro-level by comparison.

Bear in mind that with the Winter League portfolio running concurrently, this article represents an isolated snapshot of what happened to our Summer Leagues during the time frame represented by 419 bets placed in 10 leagues (20 systems) over a period of 288 days from the 22nd of February to the 7th of December 2019, both dates inclusive.



Here again, is that free download link – Click on the button below to get your 2019 Summer League Campaign spreadsheet.

>>> 2019 summer league campaign <<<

(Then click on the green Checkout button, fill in your name/email address details and press Submit Order. A download link will then be sent to your email address – and it won’t cost you a penny! Check your junk mail if it doesn’t arrive in your inbox immediately).


When buying this spreadsheet you will also receive a coupon code offering a discount of £7.00 GBP, redeemable against the purchase of any individual HDAFU Table. This allows you the opportunity to experiment and explore your first HDAFU Table without paying the full price for it and before you commit to buying more – formulate strategies for any current season ‘on the cheap’!

Buy your tables in the Soccerwidow HDAFU Store (heavily discounted bundles of 5, 10, 15, 25 leagues also now available!)


Coronavirus Thoughts

The effects of coronavirus on the various leagues around the world are still unknown.

After the March 2011 Tsunami in Japan, the J1-League was halted for seven weeks. When the league restarted it assumed exactly the same statistical pattern as expected from previous seasons: the elongated break between rounds had no effects on the trends of the observed results (although only one round of matches had been played in the 2011 season up to that moment).

Coronavirus has suspended leagues for far longer and at a different point in each, and the possibility of many leagues resuming against a backdrop of empty stadia is another factor to consider. Will home advantage be to some extent neutralized by the lack of fans?

All in all, differences like this may affect individual results but, from a statistical perspective, previous trends will in all likelihood remain evident. But don’t hold us to that.

Whilst things stabilize around the world it is probably better to pause betting portfolios for a while and monitor your systems on paper. However, Value Calculation and Over/Under goal betting are probably still valid as the concepts are applied to and rely on calculating each game individually.

Stay safe.


Last Update: 13 June 2020

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Systems Case Studies



No comments yet.

Leave a Reply / Comment




Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. You can also subscribe without commenting.