Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.
2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve
We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.
For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.
And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.
2016-17 Campaign Report
Measures of Risk
Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.
This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.
Here is our rough guide:
- Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
- Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
- Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
- Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
- High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)
Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)
Measures of Success
You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.
For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:
- Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
- Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
- Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
- Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).
You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.
2016-17 League-by-League Review
Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):
1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System
Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.
Result: Achiever
2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits
Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.
Result: Over-Achiever
3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break
Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season
This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.
Result: Loser
5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System
This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.
Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.
There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).
Result: Achiever
6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System
This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).
However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.
The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.
Result: Zero-Sum
7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System
Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System
The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.
This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).
Result: Achiever
9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break
Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season
The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.
It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System
The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.
Result: Loser
hi all
I gave up staking on real money 4 weeks ago. even with the stop loss in place, you lose a larger amount and with reduced stakes after, it will take a tremendous turnaround to achieve parity after these results.
I understand RW pointing towards the odds etc but in my experience it is the strike rate, especially france 2…….. it honestly looks like the French league has said we will have a result and play on till someone wins!!!!
the short odds systems let me down badly to and I’m not touching this again unless I see a marked improvement.
Hi Scott,
how suddenly leagues and results began to deteriorate, so suddenly they can start performing perfectly for some time, beyond any expectations. No one knows what next rounds will bring. I lost 27 bets out of 30 last weekend and to win 27 out of 30 in the next round is also possible. Of course it’s not very realistic, but 20 wins still would be fantastic, making 66% hit rate. I did hit 64% in my summer league once and it happened exactly when I came back to 0 balance from my 3.5 months struggle. After such a long frustrating period I did not expect such a good hit rate, but it it did happen and balance curve rocketed to the sky. With brief struggles the curve kept rising until now. Bad results in winter leagues urges me to make a pause, because I naturally expect the next round to perform badly as well, but based on my summer experience I can’t stop thinking, if I make a pause, I may regret it as well. Statistics does not care what happened and can offset horrible performance and losses in a stormy way right after them. I’m not sure what I’m going to do.
Jo,
I’ve been continuing to read peoples comments on their situations with the portfolio approach. The ones sharing their experiences are all exactly in the same boat more or less. If anyone reading the comments here is indeed making a healthy profit, please do share with us the constituent elements of your portfolio, as I’m extremely intrigued to know what leagues and systems are turning a good profit. Perhaps there are a few leagues other than the 12 I analyzed where profits are being made.
I’m like you in my view that switching over to paper testing could end up leaving you feeling burned, as what happens if the hit rate spikes next round and you end up leaving profits on the table. That would be immensely infuriating.
Whether right or wrong, I think if a method of betting or system approach is viable, then it would be successful with flat staking without the need to alter stakes, and certainly without the need to stop betting to wait for better times. A lot of us are loathe to see another week or 2 of very low hit rates, which would further decimate our bankrolls, hence are considering or have already decided to paper test, or suspend betting entirely.
I don’t know if this method of betting is always prone to such volatility in terms of hit rates dipping so significantly across all systems at once. Perhaps it is, or perhaps this early season is just a one off disaster, that won’t repeat again. I suppose paper testing would save us money this season and allow us to decide if a portfolio approach is viable.
I know RW had a great campaign as illustrated. But that is one example. All the real life anecdotal evidence we have seen here so far suggests it is tough going – and that worries me. As mentioned, I really would be interested to hear about successes thus far, so as to perhaps encourage me to plug away with my own portfolio rather than ditch it entirely.
On the note of the stop loss. I had been comparing flat staking alongside a stop loss, and for my own portfolio, it didn’t take much difference to the bottom line. Of course, the flat staking lost more than it would have done had I lowered stakes last week. But if I were now to lower my stakes based on 7 straight losing weeks, my stake would be halved. Looking forward that makes it incredibly tough to make back 25 points of losses, where in effect that 25 points is now 50 points at half stakes. Recovery of the bank to break even seems optimistic. Which for me is why I feel really turned off from carrying on as it seems I have a mountain to climb to come back from these losses just to break even.
Tough decisions indeed!
Hi Simon,
if you still decide to continue with real money and if I were you, I would probably halve my stakes. In case the next round performs well, I would still make some money and would not become infuriated, because some piece of the cake would be in my plate. In case the next round brings loss again, it won’t look too much for you, hopefully. Or just reduce the stakes to the amount you don’t care to lose in case horrible round like this happens twice in a row.
I think stop-loss & ratchet mechanism may not make a big difference compared to flat stakes if system is losing at the time, but it should be quite a difference in case portfolio is in profit from the start and pretty much in a constant rise. You can check the numbers in Soccerwidow’s winter campaign. And you probably compared flat stakes with stop-loss with your current results, not so far away from from the start of the season. Major European leagues played about 7 rounds so far. They have about 34-38 rounds. At the end of a season it should be quite a difference. Also numerical difference may not look big, but in percentages it may look much more. Difference between 1 and 2 is just 1, not a lot, but in percentages it’s 50%. And it’s really a lot.
Simon, whatever you decide to do, I hope it’s gonna be right decision.
Jo,
As far as I can tell, the ratchet only comes in to play to make use of profits accrued. I.e if the bank is increased you put it to work more by putting more of it into play. And assuming hit rates stay consistent you would reap benefits of it. And if hit rates start to drop, you cut back stakes to protect profits.
The issue for me with the stop loss is that when you reduce stakes as your bankroll is decreasing and going into loss, it becomes ever harder to make profits. The reduction of stakes does help you “stay in the game”, but when you are winning a pittance with each winning bet its harder for the bank to recover to break even. A prolonged winning run would enable one to increase stakes, but at present having just one winning week seems far away.
If stakes are reducing week by week over an extended time, then that for me is an indication of a failing system.
My thinking at present is not to quit though. I must admit over the weekend I simply laughed to myself as my two final bets went from wins to losses due to injury time goals, and at that point I chose to take Sunday off. Frustration was at a high and those final results were a real kick in the proverbials. So my position is that the bank I had set aside for the portfolio is down by 30%, but, if I can claw back and break even, or even cover the cost of the tables I purchased, then we get out of this situation unscathed and look to next season.
I’m not a reckless guy, at the moment the bankroll is intact and sitting there safe and sound. No chasing losses, no trying to get it back quick. The international break is a great time to clear the mind, get rid of any annoyance from this bad run, and hope things even out.
The money I have set aside for this campaign is part of a larger amount I have available for betting with, completely separate from personal money….so if it loses it loses. I’m more upset that the system I spent so long trying to perfect is failing….I’d be equally frustrated if just paper testing and seeing these results believe me. Because I really do believe this concept.
My stakes at the start of the campaign were 1% of bankroll. So I will just rest and make stakes 1% of the current bankroll, and roll with that and hope I see a surge in hit rates, as right now it seem to have bottomed out and is due for a rebound.
Let’s see!
I’m having a similarly tough time of it, my running totals as follows:
Holland: – 6.2 points
Ligue 1: -6.5 points
Ligue 2: -25.5 points
Turkey: +4 points
Italy: -1.5 points
Germany: +9 points
Belgium: -3 points.
29.7 points down after 6 weeks of betting. I joined late and have only a small portfolio as was reluctant to shell out for alot of spreadsheets as my first time doing this.
I am loathe to paper trade going forward as feel that if I do that will guarantee an upturn in results. But am finding waking up to check results more stressful than it should be! I have been reducing stakes and will continue to do this I think. I’m based in Australia so difficult for me to place bets within the hour prior to kick off and normally place between 1 and 5 hours before.
I have no issues with this really, as was my decision to sign up for it and my choice to put my money at risk. It’s clear though that a decent bank is required and I’m sure I read that a 20 point bank would be sufficient. I don’t think that is enough and would advise a 50 point bank minimum.
I don’t normally like International breaks but will enjoy this one and will be a chance to reflect and evaluate.
Good luck all!
Hey guys,
I’m sorry to hear that your portfolios aren’t going too well right now. I hope things get better.
Should you read this post, may I ask, are all your systems based on the 1 x 2 full-time market?
Because if things are horrendously volatile in that market, maybe try the half-time market? I’ve heard tell that it’s stabler and easier to make predictions for. Although I’m not sure if the HDAFU tables cater for it (I’m yet to purchase those, I’m still doing the Fundamentals of Sports Betting).
And, of course there’s over/under markets. Maybe they’re steadier?
I’m not sure how lucrative the odds for those respective markets tend to be. But maybe they enhance the chances of a steady profit?
If the ‘favourites’ aspect of your system isn’t getting far, why not swap it for one of those systems?
Anyway, I still have a lot to learn and this might run contrary to the portfolio idea. But I thought I’d throw it out there for you to consider in the hope it might help.
Happy hunting!
Well, unfortunately for me it seems like that’s the end of the road as far as real money goes for the moment. The last two weekends, as they have for everybody else, have decimated my bankroll and I actually can’t afford to get another full round of bets on.
I only ended up picking seven systems due to lack of funds so always knew I was taking a risk in terms of balance of my portfolio, but I never truly expected to see four of my seven systems equal or better their longest losing streak at the same time! So for me it’s time to paper trade and keep an eye on it, build up my bankroll via other means, and then possibly return for a second half of the season portfolio. Good luck to everybody continuing!
Alex,
The run of luck, where underdog and favourite systems across the majority of top leagues are failing has been what has cost us. The underlying premise of the portfolio is that systems support each other, and we just aren’t seeing that support.
I skipped betting on any games on the Sunday of the last round of games, but tallying things up to include those games, my portfolio is down 34 points, which is 34% of my bankroll.
I allotted a bankroll of 100 points to this venture. I have decided to play the percentages and hope that a hit rate of 17% (last weeks results) will get better. So I will press on and alter my stakes to reflect each stake still being 1% of bankroll. I will just have to accept winnings per bet will be less until I experience a good run of higher hit rates.
At this point I will be happy to dig myself out of this hole, break even for the campaign and cover the cost of the tables purchased.
Wishing us all the best of luck!
Good luck to you Simon! You seem to have done the sensible thing and erred on the side of caution regarding bankroll management. I went for a more aggressive approach, and whilst I knew I was taking a bit of a risk I never expected such an overwhelming failure to all my systems at the same time.
You’re correct, that lack of support from the low risk systems is just compounding the problems with the higher risk systems. In fact, the only one of my systems performing well is my Portuguese one, but bets in that one are very limited due to the small odds range so it’s barely even scratched the sides of the losses from the other systems.
Hopefully your perseverance will pay off. I’m heading back to other pursuits to rebuild my bankroll, and then hopefully I can put together a promising second half season portfolio and be a bit more cautious with my bankroll.
Hey
My campaign did comparatively well when I see the results you mentioned in your comments. I did not split the leagues in two halves. I always analyzed the whole season of each league. If you want to follow my campaign, just visit http://betlist.atwebpages.com .
Hi LeBo,
Very interesting results – thanks for sharing them with us. I shall certainly be keeping an eye on your campaign as it unfolds and would also recommend it to others on this thread.
Thanks again.
Again, a disastrous day. I hoped that after the big international break things will pick up, but today all 5 of my bets lost! I can’t believe this is happening – currently I sit at 15% less hitrate than the projected one! IMPOSSIBLE!
Rado,
I made 7 bets today, only 1 bet won, which was a 2.12 favorite. So another day ending in a heavy loss. My portfolio hit rate is 14-15% less than the projected hit rate, which as you say is nothing short of a disaster when it comes to looking at the bankroll being depleted. My stakes have been reduced priorate this round of games in an attempt to stop the bleeding.
I really don’t know what to expect with the hit rate in the short term – they really are in a prolonged slump right now. I have multiple systems performing to the level where they have already exceeded the longest experienced losing streak. I fear that unless the hit rates start to improve soon, some of the systems will be doomed to fail, with big losses incurred, and it will also be harder for the bankroll to recover, when its most historically profitable systems have failed.
It’s why I have abandoned the notion of making a lot of money from this venture, but instead will be happy to recoup my losses and cover the outlay on the tables. Then I can decide whether I want to do this type of betting method again next year.
Don’t bother. I am dropping this nightmare as soon as the end of this weekend. After the 5 out of 5 lost bets yesterday, today I started with another 5 out of 5 lost, which totals to 10 straight losses across all systems! I hate to admit it, but it seems to me the cause is lost beyond all hope. I spent a tremendous amount of time trying to understand the tables, researching, reading and waiting for the final minutes before kickoff to place the bets. I’ve been committed to this endeavor with all I’ve got and in the end not only did I not win a penny, but accumulated horrendous losses, with not a single week, not even a single DAY in the last month producing any profit. It’s been only losses, losses, losses. I know betting has bad periods, but not to have a single winning day in an entire month, a hitrate almost 20% below the projected one, and only waiting and hoping for the “next high odd lucky win” doesn’t cut it for me anymore. I am completely sure that even if I continue till the end of the season, it will be impossible to bring back the enormous losses the systems have suffered so far. It is simply not possible to bring back 30 units negative back. Rightwinger didn’t at any single point sit at -3000 pounds of balance, nor did he have a month with such a loss. That brings me to the conclusion that either the results of his campaign are forged, or that we are having such a unprecedentedly bad year that the losses are already beyond repair.
Another bad weekend. Not as bad as 2 weeks ago, but in the best case scenario after 2 estimated bets left tomorrow I will have a loss of -500. In case remaining bets lose, I will be -1400 this weekend. Currently I have won 9 bets out of 30, 30% hit rate. None of the high odds won, except one bet I decided to skip. Last 2 rounds were really poor, this Friday was loss, Saturday profit, Sunday ruined everything again. My portfolio did not perform as bad as Rado’s since I had winning days and weekends during the last month, but I don’t think it will be any easier to recover from losses. Exactly this day 1 year ago Right Winger had 12600 in his balance, if I get back to 0 before Christmas, it will be fantastic result.
Rado, Jo,
Similar experience for me this weekend. Friday resulted in 1 win from 7 and cost me about 5 points of profit. Saturday was a great day and actually hit 60% of my bets to gain about 15 points. Today was horrible and I won 3 of 12, giving back most of Saturdays profits.
The hit rates from day to day are quite volatile, as in we can’t seem to string a few good days together. I can’t recall back to back winning days. And from week to week recently, the hit rates are way under what we have all projected.
Totting up my results this week I came out with a few units profit, but am still around 30 points in deficit.
Had today been a bit better, this week would have been exactly what I needed to get back on track, but it wasn’t to be.
Jo, as you probably read in my previous post, I had modified my expectation in as much as I will be happy to simply right the ship and cover my expenses. Anything above that will be a pleasant surprise.
I just look at it his way. We all purchased good information, and have been provided with a lot of help here in getting our portfolios up and running. I appreciate that a lot. Understandably those us of us having a worse than expected time of things are disappointed and upset. I’m trying to just detach from the results and wait for the hit rates to improve.
Saturday for me was a glimpse of what can happen when things go right. I just need a few of those days in a row to happen to get me back to even.
This week for me is pretty much done as there may be just 2 more bets to make tomorrow.
One thing to point out about right wingers campaign, was yes, it got off to a brilliant start, then slowed down during the middle, to then experience 30 points of loss in the last 4 weeks of the campaign. I don’t suppose for a minute any campaign will show the same pattern as the last one. So whilst we have seen a good start, followed by a really bad period that has put us at overall loss, perhaps with patience we will see an upswing in results.
At this point patience is all there really is left to employ.
Hi Simon,
when I check how much extra wins I need to be in profit on each losing weekend usually it’s really not a lot, depending on odds 3 extra wins would be just enough with actual hit rate being still quite far away from projected 41%. It’s really crazy how differently the next year portfolio can perform compared to the previous year. On Saturday I won 7 bets out of 13, 3 wins produced profits less than 100 units each and the day was still in profit. Success is not so far away most of the time except that horrible weekend 2 weeks ago, but moving back and forth for prolonged period of time is really tough.
Hi guys , i purchased 2 or 3 HDAFU tables at the start of the season and have been paper trading out of interest , i have also been following all of your progress this winter season , after studying and thinking about this way of betting for months , i am afraid i have no long term faith in the profitability , alot of the inflection points we are betting on fall below the sharp Asian lines ie Pinnicle and Sbo these are the most liquid markets and therefore the most accurate odds unless you are beating there odds at kick off you will not make any money. I may be missing something and i hope that i am wrong .
Hi Kevin,
I’m not quite sure what you mean by “the inflection points we are betting on fall below the sharp Asian lines”.
Pinnacle and SBOBET are both in the pool of bookmakers we have used to formulate the HDAFU Tables, and both are at or near the top of the Asian contingent when it comes to offering best odds/low margins.
But usually, these type of bookmakers are only top dogs on one or two of the 1X2 lines at a time, and very, very rarely best on all three odds at the same time.
Of course, the odds captured for use in the tables are a benchmark only. If you wish to lower the benchmark to match more closely a ‘middle range’ of bookmakers, then use the Odds Toggle function to reset results/expectations.
On the betting side, everyone naturally seeks to obtain the best odds they can buy.
Only by comparing the odds bought with the highest legitimate odds available at the time can you then say that a system is hampered by the list of bookmakers at your disposal.
Again, using the Odds Toggle function will help you decide whether you do have the ammunition with which to hit the targets created by your chosen inflection points.
Lastly, whilst agreeing with you about the great liquidity at places like Pinnacle and SBOBET, there is no connection between liquidity and ‘most accurate odds’. No single bookmaker can provide best price on any market (home, draw or away) all of the time. Each has to balance their portfolio, and prices for every betting option change constantly throughout the day with all bookmakers, especially quickly on more popular events.
Ultimately, we are dealing with a fluid market articulated by demand and supply, with necessary competition between bookmakers for market share. The likes of Pinnacle and SBOBET may turn over far greater amounts of money to gain the same net outcome as a middle-of-the-road bookie such as Ladbrokes – the same business model, just with different strategies.
In short, you don’t need to constantly beat Pinnacle or SBOBET odds – you will do it naturally anyway because bookies such as this are never best price on any one line all of the time.
I hope this helps.