HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues


12. ITA1 – Italy Serie A – Whole Season System

Risk: Low

Usually, there is always one system that breaks all records and pulls up trees on its way to the top of the performance table.

Italy smashed its estimated hit rate by almost 6%, and its yield estimate by more than 8%. The resultant six-season-high profit figure was £4,142.00, fantastic for a low risk/low yield system.

Result: Over-Achiever

13. NETH1 – Netherlands Eredivisie – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium-high

With £4,378.00 banked to become top earner in our portfolio, this system still only achieved its third highest performance in the last six seasons.

There were 14 fewer bets but the same number of expected wins (28).

Result: Achiever

14. OZ1 – Australia A-League – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

This system was in profit only three times during a run of 51 bets, with the hit rate down more than 8% on expectations.

As it finished on -£101.00, we are classifying the result as a zero sum game.

Result: Zero-Sum

15. POL1 – Poland Ekstraklasa – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium

After 106 of its eventual 162 bets, this system was cruising at over £1,800 profit. Then a run of 22 straight losses turned something so promising into the worst performing system of all.

The loss was eventually recorded at -£1,283.00, the only negative season in the last six.

Result: Loser

16. POR1A – Portugal Primeira Liga – First Half Season System
Up to 23/12/2016 Christmas break

Risk: Medium

The combination of a hit rate more than 5% less than average, and almost 20 fewer bets (54 vs. 73 expected), eventually took this system down. 14 of the last 15 bets lost for a net return of just £1.00.

Result: Zero-Sum

17. POR1B – Portugal Primeira Liga – Second Half Season System
From 07/01/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Low

Small odds usually mean small returns, but at less than 3% adrift of estimates, the hit rate still returned a profit of £314.00.

Result: Achiever

18. RUS1A – Russia Premier League – First Half Season System
Up to 05/12/2016 winter break

Risk: Low

The second best performance in six seasons, bringing a profit of £1,302.00.

Hit rate was up more than 5% on average, whilst yield was more than 8% above expectations.

Result: Achiever

19. RUS1B – Russia Premier League – Second Half Season System
From the 03/03/2017 start of the second half of the season

Risk: Medium-high

An 11% drop on hit rate resulted in only four winning bets out of 22. A loss of -£433.00 was therefore an acceptable result.

Result: Loser

20. SPA1 – Spain La Liga Primera – Whole Season System

Risk: Medium-high

Another tale of reduced hit rates, in this case, by more than 9%, resulted in a six-season-low of -£1,069.00.

Result: Loser

21. SWI1 – Switzerland Super League – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

Here, hit rate was down by more than 7%, and the loss of -£204.00 was again acceptable.

Result: Loser

22. TUR1 – Turkey Super Lig – Whole Season System

Risk: Low-medium

There were almost 20 fewer bets than expected and a slightly lower (by 1.5%) hit rate still created a profit of £415.00.

Result: Achiever


Spread of Risk

The 22 systems chosen incorporated an even spread of risk:

  • Low Risk = 4 systems (18.19%) (1x Over-Achiever; 2x Achievers; 1x Loser)
    Return: £5,448.00
  • Low-medium Risk = 6 systems (27.27%) (3x Achievers; 1x Zero Sum; 2x Losers)
    Return: £3,726.00
  • Medium Risk = 6 systems (27.27%) (1x Over-Achiever; 3x Achievers; 1x Zero Sum; 1x Loser)
    Return: £5,605.00
  • Medium-high & High Risk = 6 systems (27.27%) (3x Achievers; 1x Zero Sum; 2x Losers)
    Return: £4,824.00

The spread of risk is the primary factor in creating the synergy within a portfolio. Everything holds together because the investments are spread over the different levels of risk and tend to complement each other.

The Chrono tab reveals that a mixed-risk portfolio also tends to have a tempering effect on the longest winning and losing streaks expected from any individual system.

In the Summary tab you will see that the longest expected winning streak in any one system was 11 (Italy and Greece), whilst the longest expected losing streak was 31 (England).

The actual results gave one streak of 10 consecutive wins, and one streak of 12 consecutive losses.

A portfolio with too much bias on low risk systems has to work hard but sees lower profits (because many bets will be on under-priced favourites). The returns from lower odds place more stress on a bank trying to recover from losses, and a low risk portfolio is therefore more vulnerable to bankruptcy.

Likewise, too much risk means more losses because the implied probabilities are lower, and this means a lower hit rate, more jagged profit curves, and lower profits as a consequence. This end of the spectrum is vulnerable to long losing streaks and bankruptcy. (Remember the EPL system).

A healthy balance of low, medium and high risk funds is therefore essential for any investment portfolio. Just ask any pension provider, stockbroker or insurance company.

All four of the ‘funds’ finished in healthy profits and the success of the portfolio was never in doubt – only the size of that success.

Spread of Results

The overall result was defined by the following classifications:

  • Over-Achievers = 2
  • Achievers = 11
  • Zero Sum Players = 3
  • Losers = 6

59% (13) of the systems made money. Just under 14% (3) effectively broke-even. Just over 27% (6) of the systems lost money.

In effect, just the top eight systems produced the profit.

Together, the following systems accounted for £19,306 profit (of the overall £19,603 total figure): Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, France 2, Germany (2nd Half), Czech Republic (1st Half), Denmark (1st Half), Germany (1st Half).

The other 14 systems were effectively a collective zero-sum-game, but nonetheless essential in the grand scheme of things.

The only time the portfolio was not in profit was during week two of the 47 week campaign. It was a very similar experience to the Summer League Campaign, which was never out of profit in its entire duration.

Get the Full Report & Check our Statements so Far

The information contained in the spreadsheet is invaluable and we are sure that you will feel the nominal £1.99 GBP charge is a real bargain: It is an ideal template for your own portfolio structuring and monitoring processes, and provides many valuable Excel formulas that may come in handy with your other projects.

The size of this .XLSX Excel file is 553KB:

>>> 2016-17 winter league campaign <<<


 
When buying this spreadsheet you will also receive a coupon code offering a discount of £7.00 GBP, redeemable against the purchase of any individual HDAFU Table. This allows you the opportunity to experiment and explore your first HDAFU Table without paying the full price for it and before you commit to buying more. Test drive and formulate strategies for any current season ‘on the cheap’!

Spreadsheet Features:

  • The spreadsheet details every bet in every system used and is totally customizable, including a stake toggle (Chrono tab cell N1838) to allow you to see the effects of different levels of flat staking.
  • Includes a separate tab for each of the 22 systems used, detailing the systems themselves and the individual bet results.
  • The Chrono tab brings the 22 systems together in one tab for collective detailed analysis.
  • The Inflection Points graph tab shows the profit curve’s adventures based on the full range of odds bought. (This is a static table relevant only to this portfolio).
  • The most important addition is the Stake Ratchet and Stop-loss simulation (an example of a medium-aggressive progressive staking plan: Chrono tab), which will provide you with the ideas and tools to manage your money professionally and make it work at optimum levels in order to maximise profits.



Last Update: 2 August 2017

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Advice Betting Systems Case Studies



225 Responses to “HDAFU Tables: £20k in 214 days with the Winter Leagues”

  1. Florian
    16 May 2019 at 12:32 am #

    Dear Elena and Rob,

    I hope you are doing well! 🙂 if I may ask you the following: which odds have you been using for your 2016/2017 winter leagues excel sheets? I have tried to reproduce your portfolio for the French Ligue 1 on the paper backing the favorite. However the odds ive been using slightly differ from yours and interestingly this small difference eventually makes a big difference. My result is 904 units compared to your 1.634 units. As the odds decide which game you bet we have a different portfolio (your portfolio consists of 138 matches in France, mine has 131). I would like to reproduce your portfolio but would need to know the exact odds you were using.

    My odds: I used historical data from football-data.co.uk. For whatever reason their excel sheet does not contain maxodds at the market.)

    So I took Bet365 Interwetten, BWin, Ladbrokes, Pinnacle, William Hill, VC Bet and Pinnacle closing odds (last odds before match starts). That’s all the odds I got from the excel sheet from football-data.co.uk. for the French Ligue 1 2016/2017 season.

    Now, which odds exactly have you been using? My guess is that you have been using the highest odds available on the market at kickoff. But where do you get the data from?

    Last question: do you know any other website that provides historical odds in excel sheets?

    Thank you and warm greetings to Teneriffe!

    Florian

    • Right Winger
      19 May 2019 at 8:51 pm #

      Hi Florian,

      Yes, we are both fine, thanks very much for asking – I am back in the UK these days whilst Elena continues to bask in the warmth of Tenerife (lucky girl!) 🙂

      2016-17? Seems almost an aeon away now! If I remember rightly, Australia A-League, EPL and Greece Super League were all based on audited Oddsportal odds at the point of kick-off, where manual adjustments had been made according to the timestamps on each set of match odds. They were as accurate as we could get them.

      The other Winter Leagues used unaudited Oddsportal odds (i.e. scraped as they appeared), again at the close of the ante-post market.

      The range of bookmakers we used is outlined in our article about the settings in Oddsportal.

      One thing I will say is that when revisiting Oddsportal after more than three seasons (bearing in mind the odds used for 2016-17 were for the seasons 2011-16), what you will find now is not going to be the same picture. Oddsportal odds have a habit of being distorted by bookmakers that were in the portfolio in 2016, for example, but which have since been discarded as a featured bookmaker for whatever reason.

      In other words, I have found in the past that things get churned around to some small degree every year making it nigh on impossible to replicate the same results when scraping odds from Oddsportal. Of course, the first set of odds used for each table, 2011-12 (seven seasons back now), will probably be worse than the other seasons, and so on down the line in varying degrees.

      To be honest with you, I think you’re likely to be fighting a losing battle if you are trying to replicate a past portfolio.

      The newer home odds divided by away odds ratio approach to system building and match selection has shifted the emphasis away from purely looking at match odds to determine cluster groups. Indeed, the relationship between the home and away odds is a far more accurate benchmark, which doesn’t tend to change radically during the ante-post market.

      In answer to your second question, apart from Football-data.co.uk’s free Excel sheets, the only other source of odds that I am aware of is a paid service courtesy of Football-bet-data.com.

      Florian, I hope these answers help you in some small way and thanks once again for taking the time and trouble to contact us.

      All the best for now.

  2. Right Winger
    12 February 2018 at 4:11 pm #

    Dear all,

    I have seen so many of you experiencing different runs of fortune this season; many of you communicate with me via private mail and many of you post your experiences on the blog. Firstly, therefore, thank you for even bothering with our website. We are always very humbled by the support.

    Although I can’t share anyone’s individual paths, what I can say is that the raft of results vary from exceptional (several better than our own) all the way through to pretty disastrous.

    This range of results is of course down to the following facts:

    1) No two portfolios are exactly the same
    2) Bet selection criteria may differ from person to person during the ante post period
    3) Each person will certainly have different bookmakers at his/her disposal
    4) Bets will be placed at different times and/or at different odds

    In addition to these fundamental differences there are many more variables such as missed bet opportunities, lack of consistency with the timings of bets, and personal traits such as greed in waiting for higher prices to appear before committing to the bet, or even hesitancy in not being confident enough to place the bets because ‘common sense’ dictates otherwise.

    Whatever the differences between you all, whilst it is nice to encourage each other when things are going well and commiserate when things are failing, please all be aware that you are indeed all different. When you begin to compare results with each other, please, please always have in the back of your mind that your are effectively comparing apples with pears, and don’t draw too many conclusions from someone else’s experiences.

    Your results and, more importantly, how you come by them, will bear little resemblance to each other. This is important to remember, and appreciating this fact will go a long way to understanding that ‘herd mentality’ is exactly what the bookmakers thrive on.

    I do feel genuinely very sorry and remorseful for those who have bad weeks, and happy (and sometimes even justified!) when reports are received of roaring successes. And like a standard distribution curve, we receive equal numbers of both.

    Personally speaking, we have been using this systematic betting approach for several years in both full-term market and in-play trading scenarios.

    The three most important elements are:

    a) Size matters! The larger portfolio the better.
    b) Portfolio balance matters! A balanced range of bets from low-low/medium-medium-medium/high-high is essential.
    c) Bank roll management is crucial. protect what you have and speculate when you can.

    Perfecting the other necessary cosmetic details such as identifying bet placements, persevering through crises, monitoring results, checking everything, adjusting attitudes, and so on, is a very personal thing. I can tell you that what works for one will be unpalatable to another. You must find your own balances here.

    And lastly, there are two types of mistakes: good mistakes (lucky wins), and bad mistakes (uneducated losses). But you must always be in a position to recognise mistakes (whether good or bad) as mistakes whenever you make them. Write them down. Post them in front of your screen. And try very hard not to repeat them.

    I hope this helps.

  3. Simon
    12 February 2018 at 1:58 pm #

    Hi guys,

    Quick update on my paper testing of the remainder of my campaign. The 2nd half systems have had a few rounds to get going, and with the results in, to date the overall picture for the entire campaign is as follows:

    Total profit based on £100 stakes = £2414.90 (Which is 24.14 points of profit)
    Overall hit rate is 36.05%. Expected is 44%
    Yield = 2.74%. Expected is 26.43%

    So as it stands, even though the performance is below the average of the last 5 seasons, the whole thing is in profit.

    I regret not sticking with this and carrying on placing bets, as if I had done so, I would have recouped losses and got back in profit. Live and learn as they say.

    Still, a lot can happen, this season from now until the end. But I just wanted to report the period of success and to say that long term, this is working out as planned.

    Summer leagues start this weekend with Ireland, so I plan to begin a fresh campaign with real wagers then.

    Good luck guys.

  4. jo
    1 February 2018 at 12:38 am #

    After a glimpse of hope at the end of 1st half that statistics finally settled in and recovering from losses well, I finished my 6th losing week in a row today. The hit rate was 16%. I sincerely hope I will stop chasing Simon’s “achievement” of 11 losing weeks in a row now. The campaign came back to its usual performance: 1, maximum 2 wins and then normally a losing streak of at least 4 bets, but just 4 is like a dream, normally it’s 5-12. When portfolio performs like this, no bank management will save your bank, it will just go bust later. When balance goes up, ratchet-stop loss mechanism should work well to get the most out of what you do, but when it goes down, I find it detrimental. You may bet 100 units, suffer losses, then reduce the stake to say 90, and if you win, you recover from losses by betting just 90 units, not 100. Then, if you’re lucky to win enough, you increase your stakes again to 95 or whatever and then you lose again at those higher stakes. It complicates recovery of a bank. I ran simulations and that’s exactly what is going on when portfolio fails to perform how it should for prolonged periods of time and the way losing weeks exchange with winning ones. It has 4 months to go, 5 months are gone, 785 or 60% bets placed out of 1307 estimated. I won just 224 or 28.54% of my bets. Expected hit rate is 40.93%. The hit rate is lower by 12.39%. With this kind of deviation against me, portfolio is going to fail and ratchet-stop loss mechanism would make it fail even worse. Even though it’s really unlikely all strategies will fail, it’s little consolation for us. It doesn’t matter if all systems fail and lose 10000, or 9 systems win 10000 and the 10th system lose 20000 units. It’s incredibly tough to cope with after successful summer season.

    • Scott
      1 February 2018 at 8:31 am #

      It’s weird because I’ve found the opposite has happened. Mine has actually started (I hope!) to settle in to normal performance. I’ve had a few strategy changes as we’ve moved into H2 of the season, but even some of the strategies which were catastrophic in H1 have now sorted their lives out and are making money.

      January brought 28.5 points worth of profit – a pretty crazy month! I’m prepared for more variance between now and the end of the season, but hopefully on a more measured basis than we saw in the first half of the season.

    • Simon
      1 February 2018 at 10:27 am #

      Jo,

      Please don’t replicate my run of 11 losing weeks in a row! That was most certainly a brutal run of bets.

      After the 11 week losing run, I stopped placing real bets and went into observation mode, but as my luck would have it, the entire portfolio recovered and ended the 1st half of the season in profit. Not a fortune, but 12 times the stake size, so it was something.

      As for now I’m just paper testing the remainder of the winter leagues and seeing what happens, and using it as a learning experience. I hope yours is profitable for you.

      You raised the point about the ratchet and stop loss mechanism. In my winter campaign I did eventually employ a stop loss, but not right away. Having said that, I kept 2 separate records: 1) Flat stakes for every bet, 2) Reduced stakes via stop loss.

      Interestingly there was not much difference at all in the bottom line when comparing both methods of staking. I’m basing that on losing less per losing bet, but winning less per winning went, so balancing out somewhat. Definitely the ratchet is great when on a long winning run as you really can make the most of winning bets with larger stakes. Its the long and protracted losing streaks that will be detrimental. Winnings will disappear fast with larger stakes.

      The effect of my losing streak on the bottom line of profit/loss was mitigated by the fact that the losing run occurred at the point when I had accrued 24 points of profit. After 11 weeks of losing I was at -30 points of profit. So that’s a 54 point swing, and in isolation, half of the bankroll. In real terms 30% of the bankroll.

      I mentioned it before in a post of mine, that my belief is that if the system or group of systems are all viable, then flat staking will produce a profit. My system’s showed that to be the case after judging at the end of the betting period. It’s a shame that 2 of the 13 systems running (Spain, Turkey) suffered “Heavy” losses and really dented the final profit figure.

      Certainly for the 1st half of the season, there were bigger than expected deviations in the hit rate of some systems – which most of us have reported.

      I’m hoping the summer campaigns show a little more consistency!

      • Rado
        4 February 2018 at 7:53 pm #

        I am almost pulling the plug after another DISATROUS week in which I lost more than 15 stakes! I have no more spare money to throw into this hopeless thing. Months of hard work flushed down the toilet in a matter of days is more than I can take! And SIMON, can you please mail me the exact odds ranges and possibly all the matches you have bet on the following systems:

        Ligue 1 (Favourite) +515
        Bundesliga (Underdog) +760
        Ekstraklasa (Underdog) +1293
        Ligue 2 (Draw) -223

        I also have these and they are all at pretty big loss. How can this be?

        • Simon
          4 February 2018 at 11:34 pm #

          Rado,

          Yes, no problem, I will get in touch with you on Monday.

        • jo
          5 February 2018 at 5:11 pm #

          I noticed a while ago that if some of us make profit, then some of us suffer losses. With probably none of us achieving any gains in profits in the long run. This weekend I finally broke my 6 weeks losing run and had a good weekend. 10 bets won out of 24, 41.66% hit rate. Even if all estimated bets lose up to Thursday I will still be in profit. However, it seems even with the supposed advantage against bookies not all of us will avoid portfolio failure. Having endured so much, it’s pain to read about someone else having another disastrous weekend. Scott, let us know how this weekend went for you? And Simon?
          I suffered small loss in Ligue 1 favourite, 1st half, Ekstraklasa dog, 1st half was pretty much the same profit as Simon’s.
          Rado, it’s strange you suffered loss in Ekstraklasa since it was very good performer with dogs, maybe it’s because the way you decide if the bet is valid or not?
          Although my difference with Simon’s Ligue 1 favourite is very big – about 700 units. 99% of time I rely on pinnacle odds only and I check them on pinnacle site, not oddsportal. If the odds fall in the range, then I check other bookies for even higher odds and then place bets.

          • Scott
            5 February 2018 at 8:14 pm #

            Hi Jo – I had another good weekend. 8 points of profit. It started off poorly with Friday and Saturday both making a loss, but came storming back on Sunday.

            Belgian and Austrian draws both had a good weekend as did Italian favourites.

            Last minute drama in Monaco was a nice way to finish the weekend!

  5. Rado
    25 January 2018 at 6:00 pm #

    I am completely devastated! After accumulating a nice profit in the last 2 months, the last 2 weeks destroyed everything. Over 20 stake units loss! All my profit is gone and now I am below zero balance… NONE of my last 10 bets won, and these were not only high odds, but also short priced favourite games… I don’t understand how can this be possible. About 80% of all my systems are 10-15% below the projected hitrate!!! Why?

    • Simon
      25 January 2018 at 6:14 pm #

      Rado,

      As you can see below from my results posted, in the 1st half of the season, I had some systems performing well, and some that were catastrophic and really dented the potential profits.

      I only had one system that I would classify as an over achiever – where the hit rate was way over what was expected. From looking at the hit rates of the achievers and zero sum systems, they were well below the average of the last 5 seasons.

      I think the low hit rates has really been the consistent factor that everyone has reported on that is stunting our gains. Nothing we can do to affect the results on the pitch, and we can’t stop a poor patch of results all coming at the same time.

      As mentioned I stopped placing real wagers at the start of November, and carried on paper testing. Many of my systems that were losing – remember I had 11 losing weeks in a row! – recovered in the final 2 months of the 1st half season. So it seems we can either have consistent results or long periods of good and bad, which will result in a very topsy turvy season. Rado, I had multiple losing streaks of 8,9,10 losses in a row and it was very disheartening to see the bank depleted. Sometimes I would have an 8 game losing streak, 1 win, and then 8 or 9 losses again….it is tough to handle for sure.

      I would much rather prefer a consistent run of results over a longer period of time rather than the topsy turvy nature of things many of us have seen….but that is not something we can control.

      Observing results and paper testing is much easier on the nerves for me at present, as this was my first time getting involved with something more in depth. What I have learned is that things can only be judged at the end of the specified betting period and until that time, managing the bankroll is the key thing.

      I lost money by getting panicked around november – when in hindsight I should have stuck it out and persevered. That was a valuable lesson learned for me.

      • Rado
        26 January 2018 at 3:21 pm #

        I will post a complete hitrate report for all 17 of my systems when the season is over. Then we will be able to analyze everything.

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