Value Bet Test Evaluation – Three Months – 65% Bank Increase



Results of the Individual Leagues:

Table of expected hit rates, actual hit rates and profit and loss per country

Profit and Loss by Country

The bottom line (green panel) shows that the results are close to the statistical expectation:
A success rate of around 81.6% was expected for the Home-Draw-Away selections and after placing 271 back and lay bets, 76.4% of all selections won. Despite this hit-rate shortfall, the profits accrued were still handsome.

On the over/under ‘X’ goals markets a success rate of around 93.1% was expected and after 188 bets, 85.5% won, bringing in another nice profit margin.

Unfortunately, the English Premier League proved not to be particularly reliable, and as our related article shows, Goal Distribution: German Bundesliga 1, French Ligue 1, Eredivisie and English Premier League, this league is a little unpredictable.

Replacing the English Premier League fixtures with those from a different league or country is something to consider for the future, but in the meantime leaving them out altogether shouldn’t harm the remaining numbers of betting opportunities remaining in the pool.

Betting Account Screenshot:

As mentioned the starting bank was £250.00 GBP, and by 8.11.2011 it had increased to £402.02 GBP:

Betfair bank screenshot

Betting bank as at 8.11.2011

It is a genuinely great feeling when mathematical computations are confirmed ‘sound’ in practice.

Anyone who would like to view the individual bets in more detail can download the following zip files showing full screenshots for three months:


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Last Update: 10 November 2011

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4 Responses to “Value Bet Test Evaluation – Three Months – 65% Bank Increase”

  1. 23 September 2016 at 1:36 pm #

    Hello Soccerwidow!

    Did you continue the campaign?
    What are the leagues where the value Detector can be useful of identifying value bets?

    Thanks

    • 26 September 2016 at 4:53 pm #

      Hello again Sarkec,

      No, sadly we had to finish the campaign due to time constraints but, carrying it on would not have told us anything we didn’t already know.

      The simulation proved that if you have positive value on your side, then long-term profits are just a numbers game.

      Regarding the Value Detector, personally I would look at leagues with high liquidity, and also take into account what their league composition stability ratio is. For example, the German Bundesliga 1 has a high stability ratio of 66.67%. This means that 66.67% of the teams currently playing in this league (2016-17) have been ever-present for a total of five seasons up to this point. The Czech 1. Liga has a 75% stability ratio, but playing this league only makes sense in the bookmaker market, as liquidity in exchanges for this league is low.

      Look also for things around 45-50% probability and higher.

  2. 21 November 2011 at 4:16 pm #

    Hi panos, I’ll try to answer to your questions 🙂

    • I only bet on leagues I have statistics for at least 5 years. For this I use football-data.co.uk where you find statistics for 11 European leagues for download.
    • I include as many as possible games into my analyses (teams which have played in the past five years with comparable strength) and not only the last 6 matches.
    • Specializing is very important as one single bettor cannot be master of too many different leagues and strategies. My advice is to concentrate on very few leagues but to become a master in these.
    • It is quite hard to find value bets in the very popular markets such as Premier League, but second and third divisions or smaller markets such as Turkish games or Greece which are not as efficient as the popular markets often have quite a number of value bets.
    • Team performance obviously changes and sometimes a team may become a completely different team in the new season, e.g. Man City this season, what means that the market prices which are normally based on statistics for the last 3 to 5 years don’t reflect the new performance and offer value.
    • I do not bet on ‘cup’ competitions such as the Champions League as there is no possibility of obtaining reliable statistics due to the fact that that the teams competing here are mostly different each year.

    Generally speaking, one can only make money from betting if consistently betting on value, either ‘laying’ if the prices are under the zero odds or ‘backing’ if the price is over the zero odds and therefore in favour of the gambler.

    Becoming a successful gambler may be probably just as hard as becoming a successful surgeon. Nobody can simply go into a hospital and start operating without many years of training and practice. Unfortunately, the same applies to gambling. Only with profound understanding of the betting markets, odds calculation, league performance, probabilities and statistics, which obviously include betting ‘values’, etc., one can make money with betting.

  3. 20 November 2011 at 9:23 pm #

    hi again soccerwidow ! when do you make a bet on 1×2, what parameters take into consideration, and what parameters not.

    Home matches , Draw matches , Lose matches put into equation ? (by percentages , e.g. 5 home win of 6 matches =83.3% /100 0.83 etc)
    Recent form put into equation? how many matches in recent form 4 , 6 ?
    Injuries, suspended players put into equation ??

    and do you make bets only on regular leagues , Eg. premier league , Serie A , Bundesliga etc or do you also bet on champions league , UEFA etc??
    at least sometimes you find “stables”
    parameters to bet in the long run in regular leagues , but no idea how to make a profit in Champions league matches , most of the matches no any parameter defined (no h2h , no many previous matches etc)

    I know you put the example of stuttgart vs schalke , many years in bundesliga1 etc but how to do it in a Champions league?
    i think bookmakers have a quotient for big teams , (Barcelona , Mancheser UTD etc ) and for newbie/poor teams (E.g , they
    put into the same quotient Cluj in 2010 in Champions league , Galati in 2011 in Champions League and so on.
    I see the seconds division on many countries , in 2 years , many teams changes , but they put a quotient for each team
    based on previous team , e.g. championship 2008/2009 volwes and 2010/2011 qpr , similar trends ,both promoted so bookmakers put the same quotitent for qpr based on wolves trends , and so happen with many teams (because many teams changes etc) and they based on the behavior of previous teams , i hope you understand what i meant , i speak very bad english and i hope you answer my questions.

    Greetings

    pd: you at least have say something about betting ,you guide us a little bit how to betting
    but i see some blogs who say you must bet on value bet and nothing more, no examples etc, you at least have
    give us some successful examples.

    pd2: i have plenty questions about betting but i dont want “crack your head” with questions , i’m learn excel because i want predict games by myself, nowadays i bet following very good tipser to get a small profit but in a future i want to predict games by myself as i mentioned above.

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