Value Bet Test Evaluation – Three Months – 65% Bank Increase




In August 2011, Soccerwidow began a portfolio football betting exercise involving the backing of over-priced odds and the laying of under-priced odds, subject to certain calculated probability parameters.

The picks were originally only published in the German language version of the blog but even then, it proved too time-consuming to continue evaluating, preparing and formatting them to go to press prior to each round of matches.

Nevertheless, the test continued and today’s article evaluates the results and findings from 459 bets placed over the course of three months with a starting bank of just £250.00 GBP.

The experiment contained a number of controls:

  • The picks chosen had to have an 85% or higher calculated probability of winning (We began with selections from German Bundesliga 1 and as we gained familiarity and pace with the calculations, games from the English Premier League were slowly introduced, and then other leagues until the portfolio during each round of betting comprised a total of 10 leagues from nine European countries)
  • Bets were only placed if the ‘value’ of the bet amounted to at least 30% (We specialised in backing/laying the “1×2” results as well as “Over 1.5 goals” and “Under 4.5 goals”).
  • The risk per bet was limited to 4% of the total bank (But if our calculations suggested more than 25 bets in a day, then the bank was divided by the total number of bets)

After 12 betting rounds, the betting bank looked as follows:

Graph showing bank growth over 12 rounds of matches from 05.08 to 08.11.2011

The first 4-weeks showed more losses than gains but from the middle of September it finally picked-up momentum and began rising.

The main reasons for the losses during August were an insufficient diversification of the bets, plus the fact there weren’t enough bets in the portfolio each week. In the middle of September, the analysis of all 10 leagues was finally finished, which enabled the doubling of bet numbers in each round, and the improved trend from this time beginning on 21 September 2011, is illustrated in the table below:

Table showing the weekly profit and loss from 05.08 to 08.11.2011

Weekly Profit & Loss 05.08 - 08.11.2011

As you can see from the table above, only one week in mid-October showed a loss after the quantity of bets doubled and the bet selections became split over 10 different leagues.


Last Update: 10 November 2011

Categories:Case Studies Match Previews Money Management Value Betting Academy



4 Responses to “Value Bet Test Evaluation – Three Months – 65% Bank Increase”

  1. sarkec
    23 September 2016 at 1:36 pm #

    Hello Soccerwidow!

    Did you continue the campaign?
    What are the leagues where the value Detector can be useful of identifying value bets?

    Thanks

    • Right Winger
      26 September 2016 at 4:53 pm #

      Hello again Sarkec,

      No, sadly we had to finish the campaign due to time constraints but, carrying it on would not have told us anything we didn’t already know.

      The simulation proved that if you have positive value on your side, then long-term profits are just a numbers game.

      Regarding the Value Detector, personally I would look at leagues with high liquidity, and also take into account what their league composition stability ratio is. For example, the German Bundesliga 1 has a high stability ratio of 66.67%. This means that 66.67% of the teams currently playing in this league (2016-17) have been ever-present for a total of five seasons up to this point. The Czech 1. Liga has a 75% stability ratio, but playing this league only makes sense in the bookmaker market, as liquidity in exchanges for this league is low.

      Look also for things around 45-50% probability and higher.

  2. Soccerwidow
    21 November 2011 at 4:16 pm #

    Hi panos, I’ll try to answer to your questions 🙂

    • I only bet on leagues I have statistics for at least 5 years. For this I use football-data.co.uk where you find statistics for 11 European leagues for download.
    • I include as many as possible games into my analyses (teams which have played in the past five years with comparable strength) and not only the last 6 matches.
    • Specializing is very important as one single bettor cannot be master of too many different leagues and strategies. My advice is to concentrate on very few leagues but to become a master in these.
    • It is quite hard to find value bets in the very popular markets such as Premier League, but second and third divisions or smaller markets such as Turkish games or Greece which are not as efficient as the popular markets often have quite a number of value bets.
    • Team performance obviously changes and sometimes a team may become a completely different team in the new season, e.g. Man City this season, what means that the market prices which are normally based on statistics for the last 3 to 5 years don’t reflect the new performance and offer value.
    • I do not bet on ‘cup’ competitions such as the Champions League as there is no possibility of obtaining reliable statistics due to the fact that that the teams competing here are mostly different each year.

    Generally speaking, one can only make money from betting if consistently betting on value, either ‘laying’ if the prices are under the zero odds or ‘backing’ if the price is over the zero odds and therefore in favour of the gambler.

    Becoming a successful gambler may be probably just as hard as becoming a successful surgeon. Nobody can simply go into a hospital and start operating without many years of training and practice. Unfortunately, the same applies to gambling. Only with profound understanding of the betting markets, odds calculation, league performance, probabilities and statistics, which obviously include betting ‘values’, etc., one can make money with betting.

  3. panos
    20 November 2011 at 9:23 pm #

    hi again soccerwidow ! when do you make a bet on 1×2, what parameters take into consideration, and what parameters not.

    Home matches , Draw matches , Lose matches put into equation ? (by percentages , e.g. 5 home win of 6 matches =83.3% /100 0.83 etc)
    Recent form put into equation? how many matches in recent form 4 , 6 ?
    Injuries, suspended players put into equation ??

    and do you make bets only on regular leagues , Eg. premier league , Serie A , Bundesliga etc or do you also bet on champions league , UEFA etc??
    at least sometimes you find “stables”
    parameters to bet in the long run in regular leagues , but no idea how to make a profit in Champions league matches , most of the matches no any parameter defined (no h2h , no many previous matches etc)

    I know you put the example of stuttgart vs schalke , many years in bundesliga1 etc but how to do it in a Champions league?
    i think bookmakers have a quotient for big teams , (Barcelona , Mancheser UTD etc ) and for newbie/poor teams (E.g , they
    put into the same quotient Cluj in 2010 in Champions league , Galati in 2011 in Champions League and so on.
    I see the seconds division on many countries , in 2 years , many teams changes , but they put a quotient for each team
    based on previous team , e.g. championship 2008/2009 volwes and 2010/2011 qpr , similar trends ,both promoted so bookmakers put the same quotitent for qpr based on wolves trends , and so happen with many teams (because many teams changes etc) and they based on the behavior of previous teams , i hope you understand what i meant , i speak very bad english and i hope you answer my questions.

    Greetings

    pd: you at least have say something about betting ,you guide us a little bit how to betting
    but i see some blogs who say you must bet on value bet and nothing more, no examples etc, you at least have
    give us some successful examples.

    pd2: i have plenty questions about betting but i dont want “crack your head” with questions , i’m learn excel because i want predict games by myself, nowadays i bet following very good tipser to get a small profit but in a future i want to predict games by myself as i mentioned above.

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