24 June 2025

72 thoughts on “Finding a System Using the HO/AO Quotient

  1. Hi,
    Thanks for this article that cleared up a lot of things for me.

    I have a few questions:
    1.How was the average fluctuation of 2.55% derived?
    2. How was the maximum deviation of 5.48% derived?
    3. How were the zero odds range of 2.34 and 2.65 derived?

    1. Hi Tom,

      the hit rate observed in this particular cluster (0.603 to 1.369) was 40.23%.

      1 divided by 40.23% = 2.485707184 (Zero odds: 2.49)

      Regarding you ‘fluctuation’ (deviation) question… Please look at image 2, where I marked the hit rate with ‘2’.

      39.62% average hit rate.

      Highest hit rate in the last 5 seasons: 45.1%
      45.1% minus 39.62% = 5.48%

      If you calculate the deviation from the mean for all 5 season and then calculate the average of them (Please pay attention only to use the absolute figures; meaning removing the negative signs) your result will be as follow:

      (5.48% + 0.38% + 0.4% + 2.05% + 4.43%) / 5 = 2.548% (rounded: 2.55%)

      If you would like to understand more about deviation and ranges and other mathematical and statisctical terminology that is applicable to betting then you may be actually interested in our course book: Fundamentals of Sports Betting

  2. Hi do the HO / AO quotients have a benefit or value on over under betting systems or does it only assist in HDAFU selections?

  3. Hi Soccerwidow

    I’m loving your work and appreciate the time and effort placed in all of your Tables, article…just the whole site!

    What I’d like to ask, and I’m not sure if I have read it before, so forgive me if it has been answered previously is this:

    Have you ever recommended Laying Systems rather than Winning? My example is based on say the EPL (Demo) whereby HOAO Q @ 0.622 and 1.396 have achieved an average “loss” of £1416 with a LLS of 17 vs LWS of 4.

    Of course using this a Laying System it would appear that we would have achieved a winning streak of 17, and losing streak of 4!

    With such powerful information to hand, I’m wondering whether there is equal opportunity to be had using the Lay method, or am I perhaps viewing it from a different vantage point.

    Thank you once again and look forward to hearing from you.

    1. Hi Mike,

      yes, of course you can use the information in the tables for identifying laying systems instead backing. Exactly as you describe.

      It’s just writing high quality articles like we do takes a huge amount of time and many of our readers don’t have access to exchanges. Therefore, we have decided to concentrate on writing about backing for the time being. Once, we have written and published everything what there is to write and to publish we will look at writing about laying. But this is probably only going to happen sometimes next year. We are even thinking about developing ‘Lay HDAFU tables’ in addition to the tables we are offering now.

      Our HDAFU tables are hugely powerful! I simply cannot write quick enough and explain everything.

  4. Hi,
    just out of curiosity can you explain how did you get the expected min and max odds in portfolio tab lets say for the England EPL which range from 3.36 to 3.54.

    If i input the same system in the free England HDAFU table the corresp.odds are from 3.46 to 3.50, even if i manually scroll through the clusters the odds range from 3.21 to 3.56 so i’m not sure where is the difference.

    1. Just for clarification for other readers… This question refers to Image 2 (System Picker example) if you replicate this screenshot in the free download in the ‘System Picker’ tab.

      In this particular example…

      Cell L12 (Corresp. odds from) takes its information from Z214 from the ‘IP’s by HO/AO’ tab
      Cell L13 (Corr. odds to) takes its information from Z267 from the ‘IP’s by HO/AO’ tab

      If you go to the ‘IP’s by HO/AO’ tab and look at the cells Z214 to Z267 you will note that the corresponding odds first decline up to a minimum of 3.30 (HO/AO: 1.000) and then start rising again.

      This is because the cluster 0.603 to 1.396 includes (more or less) ‘equally matched teams’ with home hodds from 2.26 to 3.35 and away odds from 3.72 to 2.4. At some stage (HO/AO: 1.000) there is a tipping point when the team favorited to win at home becomes the underdog and vice versa.

      If you manually look up the odds range you’ll find 3.21 to 3.56; the explanation is that the ‘IP’s by HO/AO’ tab displays averages for the associated HO/HO group.

      Hope this clarifies your question…

      However, please don’t pay too much attention to the ‘corresponding odds’ display in the ‘System Picker’ tab. This information was only included to give users an idea what the HO/AO clusters actually mean as it’s a concept that probably surpasses the common knowledge of the average punter.

  5. Hi Soccerwidow

    Thank you for clarifying my previous question regarding the Lay process.

    Just for clarity, and I have read the other posts too, but a little doubt remains. If the odds of game drift or drop in to the required Quotient 4+ hours prior to KO, do I include this bet, or should I exclude it due to market volume driven by sentiment or market manipulation by Traders on exchanges?

    Thank you, once again.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike,

      the main advice I gave in Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio was to stick to the Rule of Thumb: 50 is the magic number!

      This included.. At least 50% of the systems within the portfolio with at least 50 bets (for the whole season/year).

      If you find enough systems that have 50 (at least close to 50) bets in a season/year then your worry becomes obsolete because the span of the HO/AO quotient is going to be big enough to cover deviations that may arise through odds movements prior kick off.

      In addition, odds only start moving seriously in the last hour before kick off.

      Choose your bets according your set criteria on Thursday or Friday for the weekend, and then place them at any time you like without worrying if the HO/AO quotient has changed by the time.

  6. Hi Soccerwidow

    Thank you once again for you response.

    I have read your advised article on “50 is the magic number” again. It makes much more sense once the Table are purchased and the process of selecting and performing the task of selecting Leagues and Systems for the short-list.

    I have performed the “health check” (as I refer to it) of my Portfolio. I’m slightly concerned due to the high Yield, or perhaps it is skewed by 1 or 2 Leagues. I have the following details:

    Please note I have 11 Leagues with 640 Expected Games

    Expected Hit Rate: 52.25%
    Yield: 47%

    If I remove 1 League – Belgium, the following results occur. Belgium has only 13 Expected Games and a Yield of 71%.

    Expected Hit Rate: 52.2%
    Yield: 37%

    If I remove the largest Sample Size – Spain, 101 expected games and an expected Yield 13.81%

    Expected Hit Rate: 58%
    Expected Yield: 53%

    From what I see, I can conclude, based on your table, that I have formed a High Risk Portfolio, due to my Yield accounting for over 30%.

    I have 6 systems with over 50% Expected Hit Rate
    1 system @ 13, 2 @ 50, 3 @ 40-47 and 5 over 50 = 11 Systems.

    Therefore my problem seems to be the Yield as being too high. Do I ditch or look for other systems or do I stick by it and consider it as an anomaly and based on my expected Hit Rate, I should be OK? Otherwise, the only other thing I can take from your advice is that I am set for a very bumpy curve perhaps?

    Your articles are very well detailed, but as this is my first attempt, I’d like to take your opinion on it.

    Many thanks in advance and thank you once again.

    1. Hi Mike,

      I wouldn’t remove Spain but may decide shorten the cluster a little; try to stick to the 58% expected hit rate (or lower it a little if not avoidable) but try to increase the expected yield to a region of 20%.

      Belgium, you need to look at the matches for the last 5 years that were played in that cluster and decide if it’s likely to be repeated (this is now ‘judgement’; formulas don’t apply anymore). If you think that it is reasonable to be achieved again then leave this system in.

      Check all your systems with yields higher than 30% individually and again, apply ‘best judgement’ if it’s likely to be achieved again. If you have doubts that it may have been just an anomaly then remove it from the portfolio or shorten the chosen cluster.

      We’ve got end of August. So, you don’t have to start betting with serious money straight away. Give yourself a few weeks time to pretend that you are playing.

      After you have settled for your portfolio use a starting bank of just a 100 units and play with tiny stakes. Choose your picks at the times that suit you and place the bets at random times. Monitor it! Give yourself at least two months for this exercise. If you are happy that everything goes to expectations then you can try more serious money. However, if it goes wrong then you will have lost time and maybe a hundred quits but not more.

      Here’s an article that shows that it doesn’t matter when you commence betting: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

      Hope that helps.

  7. Thank so much for your prompt reply.

    Just to clarify, my Whole Portfolio Expected Hit Rate is 58%, but it’s the Yield I’m worried about, as it’s at 47.33%.

    I have reduced the cluster in Spain and have made it a little more efficient maintaining profit in 5/5 seasons running, using “better judgement” to prevail. I had applied this from the outset as I’m a believer of trends.

    I have divided into your suggested Risk Groups and are:
    2 Low Risk – 1 is 4/5 seasons in profit
    4 Medium – 1 is 4/5 seasons in profit
    5 High Risk

    The other 9 systems are 5/5 seasons in profit. The 2 systems that are not had their losing year in 13/14. The last 4 years in profit.

    I would have like lower risk in the portfolio, but I looked for a combination of High Hit Rate, Profit and a 5 year consistency. The Yield was almost a by-product!

    Therefore, though my Portfolio has an expected average Hit Rate of over 50% and the Expected Avge Yield is above 45%, I’m hoping that the trend may form a basis for optimism.

    I shall take your advice an monitor for a few weeks. This weekend being my first active for finding and logging,

    Thank you once again.

    1. Hi Mike,

      Don’t worry too much about the high yield. You may have just been very lucky and spotted the most profitable systems. This very high yield also gives you a nice buffer if something doesn’t go exactly to expectations.

      Please keep us posted how you’re getting on. However, please remember that when you review the portfolio to judge the performance of the whole portfolio, not the individual systems within it. The individual members will play up randomly; you can only review and judge their performance after the season has finished (especially the high risk systems require a whole year/season to perform to expectations).

      For further monitoring, please use the article Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio

      I wish you success!

  8. Thank you Soccerwidow

    Your response has put me at ease and given me a little more confidence. I will certainly keep you posted.

    The articles are great for reference too as is your response to all my queries.up

  9. So far so good. After 1 month and 150 matches, i am almost 20 stakes in profit. I use 14 whole season systems, but have 2 worries.

    Most of the systems I have selected are very profitable in the last 5 seasons, but have an extremely high number of matches – almost all of my systems are with 100-120 matches per season, the draws in Netherlands are nearly 170! Is that a problem?

    According to your article about portfolio building, we must try to achieve around 50% projected hitrate. However, the 14 systems with the best Yield that I have found (and I use), have a combined hitrate of just 39,8%. Is that going to lead to huge losing streaks and problems later on? Because I hope that if I manage to survive said streaks, in the end I will have a much higher yield rate than if I choose systems with 50% hitrate.

    1. Hi Rado,

      20 stakes in profit sounds great. Well done!

      To your first question… The larger the group the lower the deviation. From that point, having large groups that is actually a very good thing! However what may become a problem is having enough funds available for betting if there are too many matches being played at the same time. Have you read this article: 2017-18 Winter League Report – Bank Management & Stake Size? By the way, any further questions of this kind are probably also better asked on that article than on the HO/AO Quotient article here.

      With a combined hit rate of as low as 39,8% you may experience very tough losing streaks. Be prepared for that and stick religiously to your staking plan: Sound Staking: Flat Stakes & Ratcheting

      1. New update. 200 matches down, 1200 to go 😀 I finished this week in profit again. So far, 6 weeks with profit and only 1 with a loss!

        Everything is going according to plan, with 10 out of the 14 systems in profit. The only very bad system so far is Turkey Favourites, which is running on about 10 stakes loss. My hitrate is 38.1% on 39.8% projected, which is not bad. However, I hope I manage to accumulate enough bank before the inevitable nightmarish mega loss week comes.

        1. Hi Rado, as explained in the article Judging the Risk of a Football Betting Portfolio keep judging the performance of the whole portfolio, not of the individual systems within, especially not with the low hit rates you have.

          An achieved hit rate of 38.1% on 39.8% projected is brilliant! Keep going. However, be prepared that you may have a few weeks of losses in a row, not just one. I will write this month another article on losing and winning streaks and also supply a simulation to go with it. But just be prepared, it may become tough at some stage. Therefore, keep sticking to a strict staking plan. Don’t experiment – ever!

          Should you at some stage need a break, here’s an article that you can afford to break during any campaign without having to worry: Starting or Pausing Your 1X2 Portfolio in the Middle of a Season

          Good luck! Keep us posted! 🙂

  10. I need clarification on the following please. Apologies if this has been answered, only I looked first of course.

    Q1. If the game that qualified initially drops outside the quotient before KO, should I still back it?
    Q2. If the game didn’t qualify initially but dropped into the quotient range in the run up to KO.

    The way I view the above is;
    If the game was initially outside the quotient a d dropped into it (q.2) I would avoid as market has distorted the price due to bias.
    But I am confused with q.1….as it qualified originally, I perceive it as having more value now even though outside the quotient range before KO.

    Always appreciate your replies.

    Thank you,
    Mike

    1. Hi Mike,

      I’ve got the rule in betting that if something is in doubt, then leave it. It’s always better not to risk anything than to lose money. Although this rule may disqualify a few games, as long as your groups are big enough, there will still be enough matches left to bet on.

      Otherwise, the HDAFU tables are based on odds well before KO. This means that if a game you identified as a qualifier for any of your systems suddenly moves out of the zone just prior to kick-off, then leave it in (Q1). If the game didn’t qualify initially but drops into the range just before kick-off, then don’t play it (Q2).

      The whole idea of the quotient is to allow bettors not to have to check odds movements prior to kick-off.

      Best wishes,
      Soccerwidow

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