Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.
2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve
We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.
For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.
And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.
2016-17 Campaign Report
Measures of Risk
Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.
This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.
Here is our rough guide:
- Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
- Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
- Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
- Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
- High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)
Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)
Measures of Success
You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.
For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:
- Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
- Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
- Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
- Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).
You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.
2016-17 League-by-League Review
Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):
1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System
Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.
Result: Achiever
2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits
Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.
Result: Over-Achiever
3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break
Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season
This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.
Result: Loser
5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System
This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.
Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.
There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).
Result: Achiever
6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System
This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).
However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.
The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.
Result: Zero-Sum
7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System
Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System
The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.
This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).
Result: Achiever
9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break
Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season
The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.
It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System
The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.
Result: Loser
About the Author
Scott,
Yesterday was the final day of portfolio betting for me. A 15% hit rate means that the losses I recovered over the last 3 weeks are gone and further losses were incurred. My losses sit at around 40 units of my bankroll. This is after approx 500 bets – the point being, I have given this a very fair crack of the whip and been more than patient with it.
This week was game week 14 of the portfolio: after week 4 my profits were 24 units. From 24 to -40 shows a 64 unit loss in 10 weeks. That’s totally disastrous – especially as it was modeled on the risk profile of the very profitable example portfolio we were presented with.
I had in place good and profitable systems – but what can I do when for 10 weeks or more, the hit rate I see is 15%+ lower than expected. All one can do is watch their bankroll disappear slowly week by week. I put a stop loss in place, and the money is still disappearing.
All the best analysis in the world is no good if the hit rates conspire to kill your bankroll before they right themselves, and thats exactly what is happening here.
It really does seem to be a pipe dream to think we can make fortunes from this endeavour – at least thats what reality is showing me. It seems to me that it is pot luck that you pick the right systems in the first place. Systems can and will fail, and they will fail spectaularly; ligue 2, eridivisie, la liga, turkey to name a few. Like me, if you have a few of these running, they will add up and kill the bankroll.
It boils down to this for me, I spend my weekends checking odds portal, placing bets, checking results…for absolutely no reward. Add to that getting further wound up because being in losing position I’m seeing 2 goal leads being blown and losing me more money…..and its just not worth the time or effort. I could be doing plenty of other fruitful things.
I think when betting begins to impact your real life and become a chore, then its time to knock it on the head. So that’s what I’m doing. This is a complete waste of time. Which I’m surprised to be saying as before the season began I had very high hopes for this endeavour. It wasn’t to be.
Good luck to all for the rest of the season. I hope those that are currently losing get some of that back.
Thanks to Right Winger for the assistance along the way.
Take care guys.
Had Getafe won the game after leading by 2 goals at half time, the day for me would have been in profit. But yet again I’m down money on the first day of the game week and looking to claw back a deficit before I can make any progress towards reducing the already existing deficit.
It’s tough to take these bad bad losses when already down a considerable sum of cash. Me moaning and complaining about it won’t help matters or change results, but I really do feel like luck is just not with me at all in this campaign.
Thinking about my game weeks, since the horrendous run started in game week 5 of the campaign, almost EVERY Friday is a total disaster where I am in a hole before the bulk of the weekends games even begin. I would be very confident in saying that if I had simply not bet on Friday games I would be around break even for the campaign – that kinda tells you how bad Friday’s have been for me!
I’m looking at things now in mid November for many systems I have running that are losing badly, and they really need to start to winning NOW, as time for recovery is reducing – with the winter break being the end for these 1st half systems. I get the feeling La Liga is going to continue performing badly and end up losing me a lot of money….but I also worry that if I ditch it, it will start winning. So in a way I’m stuck with it for better or for worse.
Nevermind, I will take another bad day on the chin and plug away with the whole thing.
Wow, this kind of stuff really can’t be made up!
Kasimpasa leading Bursaspor 2-0 after 90 minutes. I have a bet on Kasimpasa. 2 goals for Bursaspor in injury time and I lose my bet.
Thats 3 times in a row now that has happened to me.
Seriously….I’m exceptionally close to throwing in the towel here…..
I’ve had a similar weekend, Simon. First up, Dynamo Moscow concede in the last minute (3.75), then Getafe do the same (3.92), and then Kasimpasa (2.58).
I was dug out of a giant hole yesterday by Burnley beating Southampton (7.0), but am still down about 5 points for the weekend so far.
To be fair though, I’ve been on the beneficial end of a bunch of last minute equalisers and winners….I just tend to not remember/dwell on those as much as I do the last minute bet-busters!
Let’s just hope for better today, although looking at the day ahead I’m not sure there’s that many bets to be placed for my systems.
+43 today and just because I skipped 1 team that lost. 2 bets lost in the last 10 minutes today. Would’ve been a good day.
Just a vent more than anything……
Another losing day for me. And to cap it off, it ends with another bet losing where the team i have the bet on is 2 goals ahead. The Spanish La liga is seriously frustrating the hell out of me. Haven’t won a bet there in a month, and the last 2 bets have lost where my team is 2 goals ahead…..I just cannot catch a break at all….
I am not kidding when I say that in my portfolio it gets in to double figures where I have suffered a losing bet when my team is ahead by 2 goals or more…add to that the lost bets due to injury time goals and I’m wondering if I’m just the unluckiest bloke alive! Frustrating thing is that I can’t even tell you when I have won a bet from a losing position….it probably has happened, but not often.
Had half the bets won where the team I was backing was 2 goals ahead, I would be in profit.
I’m one frustrated bettor at this moment!
I also had a good week with 8 units profit. I hope this is not just a lucky spark and the good trend continues.
36 bets,13 wins, 36% hit rate, +350 units final result. Had I cut failing Netherlands it would’ve been a different story since it had 2 wins out of 3 and made 820 units profit. Spain keeps failing badly, 6 bets lost this weekend, only 6 bets won out of 51.
Good weekend here too. 5.33 points of profit. I’m absolutely furious to have missed a a qualifying bet in Russia this afternoon that went on to win.
That would have meant an 8 point weekend. Bah!
Good Weekend…
Hope everything stabilizes from now on. I’m 7.22 point in plus with a yield of 1.5%. This campaign is an up and down…
More info on http://betlist.atwebpages.com
Rado,
Good to hear this round of games has been positive for you so far.
I can’t say the same myself unfortunately – of 21 games bet, I have just 5 wins, so a hit rate just under 25%, totally unacceptable in the sense of what is required to make a profit.
The last 2 weeks were pretty good, allowing me to recover around 9 units of profit (based on my lowered stake amount). However, unless today bails me out, I stand to lose all of that and then some. So its the classic case of treading water here, a lot of effort for zero gain.
The Spanish underdog system I am running just cannot produce a winner and is absolutely my worst performing system. The turkish favourite system is also a terrible performer and is losing me money every week.
Ligue 2 has actually won the last 2 draws I placed bets on. Netherlands will be profitable this week regardless of the 1 bet on the table for that system today.
But the story is the same, there is no consistency with the hit rates. Volatility is high and that sees any recovery wiped out in the blink of an eye. Highly highly frustrating to say the least.
The Hannover win and the Feyenoord draw patched things up a little bit today, with me seeing the first truly “good” day in 2 months. These two matches absorbed about 1/3 of the accumulated losses so far. When I look at things, two strategies stand out as the big problem so far: The draws in Ligue 2 (2/17 won), and the home wins in Australia (0/8 won). I think that the draws in Ligue 2 have totally collapsed, with not only the league setting a new record for the lowest number of draws in a season so far, but also this low number leading to a distorting of the odds, lifting them by more than 0.10 points across all bookmakers. This has moved a huge number of matches out of our pre-determined inflection points. My opinion is that Ligue 2 should be dropped, because these odd distortions have destroyed the statistical model. It’s impossible for this system to return any profit this season. The odds are not corresponding, the number of matches to bet will be totally different, etc.