Following up the successful 2016 Summer League Campaign, here is our complete report on the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign, based on 18 different top flight leagues.
2016-17 Winter League Profit Curve
We will try to avoid repeating what was said in the summer league article so that it is all new information for you here.
For the sake of completeness, you should still read and digest both reports for a full idea of our strategies and thought processes.
And you will find the current stock of available HDAFU tables via this link.
2016-17 Campaign Report
Measures of Risk
Before beginning to plan any portfolio or placing bets, you will need to review your analyses and rank the systems you have found according to risk exposure based on the values of the upper inflection point odds.
This will allow you to compile a portfolio with a healthy balance of risk, which is essential to the success of any investment plan.
Here is our rough guide:
- Low Risk (Probability 45.00% or more; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.22)
- Low-medium Risk (Probability 44.99%-35.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 2.85)
- Medium Risk (Probability 34.99%-22.50%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 4.44)
- Medium-high Risk (Probability 22.99%-16.00%; upper inflection point maximum odds of 6.25)
- High Risk (Probability 15.99% or less; upper inflection point odds above 6.25)
Discretion is used if a system does not fit these parameters or crosses two or more classifications – In these cases, the harmonic mean odds of all the games in the set is used as the benchmark to guage risk. The Excel formula for a range of odds in cells A1 to A100 would be: =HARMEAN(A1:A100)
Measures of Success
You will also need a definitive framework to be able to judge the final results.
For us, the final results of any league fall into four distinct categories:
- Systems that achieve a six-season-high (i.e. profits larger than any of the previous five seasons). (Over-Achievers).
- Those that make a profit over and above the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case), but fall short of six-season-high results. (Achievers).
- Strategies that break-even or, record a tiny profit or loss up to the size of the initial stake (£100 in our case). (Zero-Sum).
- Leagues that make a loss over and above the size of the initial stake. (Losers).
You can already see that two of these outcomes are favourable, one is neutral, and only one is detrimental.
2016-17 League-by-League Review
Let’s have a brief look at each league to see how our 22 systems fared. (Alphabetically according to the tab codes in the workbook):
1. AUS1 – Austria Bundesliga – Whole Season System
Only eight of 28 bets won, but this was enough to see a profit of £882.00. Hit rate and yield were both below the calculated averages and the resultant profit figure was lower than any of the five previous seasons’ figures.
Result: Achiever
2. BEL1 – Belgium Jupiler League – Whole Season System
Up to, but not including Europa League and Championship Group splits
Both the estimated hit rate (33 out of 97 bets won) and yield figures were surpassed by wide margins, leading to a six-season-high profit figure of £3,108.00.
Result: Over-Achiever
3. CZE1A – Czech Republic 1. Liga – First Half Season System
Up to the 04/12/2016 winter break
Nine out of 22 bets won, and whilst the hit rate and yield both outstripped expectations, the profit figure settled at £1,247.00, the fourth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
4. CZE1B – Czech Republic 1. Liga – Second Half Season System
From 18/02/2017 start of the second half of the season
This one suffered its worst result in the last six seasons, but the resultant loss was minimal at -£310.00.
Result: Loser
5. DEN1A – Denmark Superligaen – First Half Season System
This was the only system employed in this league purely because the format of the second half of the 2016-17 season was to change from previous seasons.
Although hit rate and yield were both below estimates, the system still recorded its third highest total for six seasons at £1,238.00.
There were twice as many bets than expected (largely due to the fact that around 40% more games than usual were played in the first half of the season to accommodate the new second half season format).
Result: Achiever
6. ENG1 – England Premier League – Whole Season System
This system suffered the longest losing streak we have ever encountered, almost 14% worse than expected, for a very painful 36 straight losses. (A six-season-low).
However, the situation was mostly recovered by three big winners all carrying odds of over 12.00, for a final loss of just -£32.00.
The last six bets of the season lost, but had only one of these been a winner, this system would have returned a profit. Small margins.
Result: Zero-Sum
7. FRA1 – France Ligue 1 – Whole Season System
Hit rate and yield were both below par, but the league turned in a steady performance for a profit of £1,634.00, ranked fifth largest in the last six seasons.
Result: Achiever
8. FRA2 – France Ligue 2 – Whole Season System
The same story as France Ligue 1, but with a profit of £2,801.00, for its third largest profit figure in six seasons.
This one was unusual for a much higher number of bets than expected. (215 vs. 119 estimate – Profit was at £2,523.00 after 119 bets).
Result: Achiever
9. GER1A – Germany Bundesliga 1 – First Half Season System
Up to 21/12/2016 winter break
Another below par system, but one that still achieved a profit of £1,098.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
10. GER1B – Germany Bundesliga 1 – Second Half Season System
From 20/01/2017 start of the second half of the season
The very rare inclusion of a system with two non-profitable seasons (the oldest two) in the previous five.
It featured one more bet than expected, which won, to total one more winner than expected. Hit rate and yield both exceeded estimates for a profit of £1,294.00. (Fourth largest in six seasons).
Result: Achiever
11. GRE1 – Greece Super League – Whole Season System
The hit rate here was almost 8% below estimate and resulted in the worst performance for six seasons, and a loss of -£819.00.
Result: Loser
About the Author
Just a quick update here. After 6 straight weeks with minimal profit/loss (under 1 unit), this week was incredibly successful – over 15 units profit! Some systems have been exploding recently, but the problem is that the others are failing greatly – for example the away win in Spain and the home win in Australia. The favourites in Switzerland are also a disaster. These three systems are performing incredibly bad and each of them is at about 10 unit loss. If they were not here, I would have been in an enormous profit (I’m still in profit, but not that big). For the past 2 monts, thing have been improving a bit, I hope this trend continues into the next year.
Hi Rado,
great to know you have positive results recently. My results are improving also, I was at the record low of -7050, now it’s -1040. Downswing from the highest to the lowest bank is 10000, at 100 flat stakes. Results started to pick up after 480 bets out of 1300 estimated. I have 686 bets placed in total. This campaign is very heavily demoralizing, strong nerves and huge patience demanding.
Regarding your Swiss favourites, I bet this system too. Current result is profit unlike yours and I’m pretty sure I know what odds range you bet on there. When I sorted everything out I didn’t like zero odds were higher than the lower inflection point, difference – 18 ticks. Quite significant at these odds in my eyes. So, I decided to shorten the odds range I would bet on – raising lower inflection point and lowering upper inflection point. And I got zero odds lower than my lower inflection point – every bet I will place will be value bet. I tried to cut lower odds first, but it still didn’t work out, so I cut odds from both sides. This manipulation cut potential profits by almost a half over 5 seasons and 1 season turned into a loss, but for now it works, although it’s whole season strategy and final result is in question. But that’s an idea for you in the future if you keep doing this.
Good luck to everyone.
Hi – is there an ETA for the Summer League sheets yet, please? I’m keen on getting the lot once you’ve got them sorted.
Thanks.
Hi Scott,
The 2018 Summer League tables are now available for sale.
They should be the most accurate tables we have released to date with every set of 1X2 odds checked and audited to represent the highest odds at the close of the ante post market.
They also include a new tool that generates the implied probability of a chosen system in accordance with its harmonic mean odds. This should allow users to easily gauge the risk of each system and to build a well-balanced portfolio of systems.
In the interests of balance, and recognising that this has taken some bad press this season, my summer league campaign ended up returning an 800% profit on the cost of the spreadsheets (at a flat £25 per bet).
My winter league is now breaking even having been 36 points down at its lowest ebb. It’s performing much more reliably now. I fully intend to purchase a full suite of sheets for the summer leagues.
Has anyone persevered with this?
Thanks for your swift response Right Winger. Yes, your response makes sense. I always believed that the larger the data sample, the more accurate the probability model would be. I can now see that the changes to a league makeup could have an effect. Did you experiment with shorter/longer periods when reaching your conclusion of 5 seasons or was this a gut feeling starting point for you?
Yes, we did experiment with various analyses. Even to the point of recording how many teams would be making at least their sixth consecutive appearance in the forthcoming season; in other words, what percentage of teams’ statistics would be made up of five whole seasons prior (i.e. five season ever-present teams).
Visually, some leagues’ data have a ‘consistency’ percentage in the 70’s or 80’s (e.g. U.S.A. M.L.S. = no relegation), which you might think could be construed as an indicator of a more regular data set. Other leagues of a similar size can drop into the 30’s (e.g. Ligue 2 = promotion and relegation). But, despite this gulf between the team-make-up of the M.L.S. and Ligue 2, results in those leagues are still surprisingly consistent in themselves, if vastly different from each other.
In the M.L.S. over the five seasons 2013-17, home wins averaged 51.71%, draws 25.88%, and away wins 22.41%. The variance of each of these five seasons from the average is less than +/-4% for the home win, less than +/-6% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. In Ligue 2 between 2012-17, the home win variance was just over +/-3%, less than +/-2% for draws, and less than +/-4% for the away win. Maths is not an exact science, but this is close enough.
The M.L.S. figures are probably ‘spikier’ because their league has gradually expanded in numbers during this time whilst the French has retained the consistency of its composition throughout.
Taking the French as an example, if we looked at larger and larger numbers of data, all we would see is a similar pattern to the one we already see using just the last five seasons’ figures. And besides, the relevancy of the results decays the longer back we look in time. Five is therefore enough to form a snapshot significantly accurate enough for our needs. Anything less than five is not enough in our opinion.
I hope this helps in some small way.
Hi,
I’ve been reading the website and wondered whether I have missed the reasoning for the selection of 5 season for the data sample. Having studied some leagues in the past, there is a degree of variation in consistency of results. Would the selection system cope with a 6 season analysis in one league and a 7 season analysis in another? Or would this work against the synergy that is the goal?
Hello Thechump,
Five seasons’ data provide enough historical results for a ‘significant’ sample size.
Using more results is unnecessary because:
1) Accuracy is enough with five seasons and adding more only increases the workload (in collecting stats and analysing them), without adding any greater levels of statistical significance. For example, have a look at the Goal Distribution article to see how similar the distribution curves are, season upon season. It’s the law of diminishing returns as, using more and more seasons of data, brings less added benefit to the analysis.
2) The further back in time you look, the less relevant the results become to the current or forthcoming season. Turnover of teams via promotion and relegation creates more and more statistical noise, skewing results of the analysis.
In short, snapshots using five seasons’ data are enough. We don’t need more. Thanks for your question – I hope the answer is self-explanatory.
Your weekend sounds a lot like mine, Corner.
Halfway through Saturday, I was staring down the barrel of a weekend that was about to undo all the progress made in the previous few weeks.
By the end of Sunday it had all been recovered and I found myself 1 point up.
First of all thanks to all that you are posting the performance of your winter campaign.
It helped me because i was wondering if do something wrong. We all play different Systems, but the tendency is the same.
I have 17 Systems. I placed 600 bets so far and my hitrate is 30,27 %. The Forecast Hitrate is 39,69 % I am down – 46 points.
The same feeling for me like Simon on Saturday evening. I had the longest loosing streak ever of 15 games in a row. From Friday to Saturday 2 wins out of 21. On Saturday evening i was down to -61 points. I decided a last investement to bring my credit to 75 points.
On Sunday i made a profit of + 15 points. This weekend is +-0.
The last 5 weeks i lost -4 points. The 5 weeks before i lost -42 points. So i can see an improvement.
The problem are the big odds. With odds above 4,0 i have lost -54 points. With odds From 1,5 to 3,99 i have won +8 points.
I place an average of 45 bets on a weekend. When i read your posts i see the most people have around 30 bets. Maybe i have to much Systems at the moment with a tendency that is so far away from the last 5 years.
What worries me the most ?
I checked my systems in the last 5 years. In the worst year in early November there was a profit of + 130 points. I am so far away from that.
14 wins out of 36, 38.88% hit rate, +1224 units profit this weekend. Didn’t have a weekend like this for almost 3 months and it’s 2nd profitable weekend in a row. One of the worst performers Netherlands almost recovered in just 2 weekends. Ligue 2 won 3 bets this weekend out of 4 with 1 estimated bet tomorrow. The biggest pain at the moment remains Spain being at whopping -3052, 11 bets lost in a row and making 65% of my losses. Denmark won 3 bets out of 5 and sliced losses from -1005 to -549.
I had an absolutely incredible weekend. About 10 units profit and almost all losses erased. The draws in Netherlands have really picked up as of lately. The favorites in Italy are winning. I also had 2 pretty high odd wins in Poland. Burnley’s win also brought big profits. The only systems that continue to be disastrous are the Ligue2 draws, the favorites in Switzerland and the home wins in Australia. The other 10 of my 13 systems are not so bad as of now. To sum it up, that’s a second week in a row with a respectable profit for me. I SINCERELY HOPE it’s not just a coincidence and the good hitrate continues. Right now I am sitting at 31,5% hitrate out of 38,9% projected, which is not incredibly good, but is a huge improvement over the 19% hitrate I was at 3-4 weeks ago. Now I am a little bit below zero balance from when I started 2 months ago. Given the fact I was at one time over 20 units down, that’s also an enormous improvement. Maybe there’s hope.