12. ITA1 – Italy Serie A – Whole Season System
Usually, there is always one system that breaks all records and pulls up trees on its way to the top of the performance table.
Italy smashed its estimated hit rate by almost 6%, and its yield estimate by more than 8%. The resultant six-season-high profit figure was £4,142.00, fantastic for a low risk/low yield system.
Result: Over-Achiever
13. NETH1 – Netherlands Eredivisie – Whole Season System
With £4,378.00 banked to become top earner in our portfolio, this system still only achieved its third highest performance in the last six seasons.
There were 14 fewer bets but the same number of expected wins (28).
Result: Achiever
14. OZ1 – Australia A-League – Whole Season System
This system was in profit only three times during a run of 51 bets, with the hit rate down more than 8% on expectations.
As it finished on -£101.00, we are classifying the result as a zero sum game.
Result: Zero-Sum
15. POL1 – Poland Ekstraklasa – Whole Season System
After 106 of its eventual 162 bets, this system was cruising at over £1,800 profit. Then a run of 22 straight losses turned something so promising into the worst performing system of all.
The loss was eventually recorded at -£1,283.00, the only negative season in the last six.
Result: Loser
16. POR1A – Portugal Primeira Liga – First Half Season System
Up to 23/12/2016 Christmas break
The combination of a hit rate more than 5% less than average, and almost 20 fewer bets (54 vs. 73 expected), eventually took this system down. 14 of the last 15 bets lost for a net return of just £1.00.
Result: Zero-Sum
17. POR1B – Portugal Primeira Liga – Second Half Season System
From 07/01/2017 start of the second half of the season
Small odds usually mean small returns, but at less than 3% adrift of estimates, the hit rate still returned a profit of £314.00.
Result: Achiever
18. RUS1A – Russia Premier League – First Half Season System
Up to 05/12/2016 winter break
The second best performance in six seasons, bringing a profit of £1,302.00.
Hit rate was up more than 5% on average, whilst yield was more than 8% above expectations.
Result: Achiever
19. RUS1B – Russia Premier League – Second Half Season System
From the 03/03/2017 start of the second half of the season
An 11% drop on hit rate resulted in only four winning bets out of 22. A loss of -£433.00 was therefore an acceptable result.
Result: Loser
20. SPA1 – Spain La Liga Primera – Whole Season System
Another tale of reduced hit rates, in this case, by more than 9%, resulted in a six-season-low of -£1,069.00.
Result: Loser
21. SWI1 – Switzerland Super League – Whole Season System
Here, hit rate was down by more than 7%, and the loss of -£204.00 was again acceptable.
Result: Loser
22. TUR1 – Turkey Super Lig – Whole Season System
There were almost 20 fewer bets than expected and a slightly lower (by 1.5%) hit rate still created a profit of £415.00.
Result: Achiever
Spread of Risk
The 22 systems chosen incorporated an even spread of risk:
- Low Risk = 4 systems (18.19%) (1x Over-Achiever; 2x Achievers; 1x Loser)
Return: £5,448.00 - Low-medium Risk = 6 systems (27.27%) (3x Achievers; 1x Zero Sum; 2x Losers)
Return: £3,726.00 - Medium Risk = 6 systems (27.27%) (1x Over-Achiever; 3x Achievers; 1x Zero Sum; 1x Loser)
Return: £5,605.00 - Medium-high & High Risk = 6 systems (27.27%) (3x Achievers; 1x Zero Sum; 2x Losers)
Return: £4,824.00
The spread of risk is the primary factor in creating the synergy within a portfolio. Everything holds together because the investments are spread over the different levels of risk and tend to complement each other.
The Chrono tab reveals that a mixed-risk portfolio also tends to have a tempering effect on the longest winning and losing streaks expected from any individual system.
In the Summary tab you will see that the longest expected winning streak in any one system was 11 (Italy and Greece), whilst the longest expected losing streak was 31 (England).
The actual results gave one streak of 10 consecutive wins, and one streak of 12 consecutive losses.
A portfolio with too much bias on low risk systems has to work hard but sees lower profits (because many bets will be on under-priced favourites). The returns from lower odds place more stress on a bank trying to recover from losses, and a low risk portfolio is therefore more vulnerable to bankruptcy.
Likewise, too much risk means more losses because the implied probabilities are lower, and this means a lower hit rate, more jagged profit curves, and lower profits as a consequence. This end of the spectrum is vulnerable to long losing streaks and bankruptcy. (Remember the EPL system).
A healthy balance of low, medium and high risk funds is therefore essential for any investment portfolio. Just ask any pension provider, stockbroker or insurance company.
All four of the ‘funds’ finished in healthy profits and the success of the portfolio was never in doubt – only the size of that success.
Spread of Results
The overall result was defined by the following classifications:
- Over-Achievers = 2
- Achievers = 11
- Zero Sum Players = 3
- Losers = 6
59% (13) of the systems made money. Just under 14% (3) effectively broke-even. Just over 27% (6) of the systems lost money.
In effect, just the top eight systems produced the profit.
Together, the following systems accounted for £19,306 profit (of the overall £19,603 total figure): Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, France 2, Germany (2nd Half), Czech Republic (1st Half), Denmark (1st Half), Germany (1st Half).
The other 14 systems were effectively a collective zero-sum-game, but nonetheless essential in the grand scheme of things.
The only time the portfolio was not in profit was during week two of the 47 week campaign. It was a very similar experience to the Summer League Campaign, which was never out of profit in its entire duration.
Get the Full Report & Check our Statements so Far
The information contained in the spreadsheet is invaluable and we are sure that you will feel the nominal £1.99 GBP charge is a real bargain: It is an ideal template for your own portfolio structuring and monitoring processes, and provides many valuable Excel formulas that may come in handy with your other projects.
The size of this .XLSX Excel file is 553KB:
>>> 2016-17 winter league campaign <<<
When buying this spreadsheet you will also receive a coupon code offering a discount of £7.00 GBP, redeemable against the purchase of any individual HDAFU Table. This allows you the opportunity to experiment and explore your first HDAFU Table without paying the full price for it and before you commit to buying more. Test drive and formulate strategies for any current season ‘on the cheap’!
Spreadsheet Features:
- The spreadsheet details every bet in every system used and is totally customizable, including a stake toggle (Chrono tab cell N1838) to allow you to see the effects of different levels of flat staking.
- Includes a separate tab for each of the 22 systems used, detailing the systems themselves and the individual bet results.
- The Chrono tab brings the 22 systems together in one tab for collective detailed analysis.
- The Inflection Points graph tab shows the profit curve’s adventures based on the full range of odds bought. (This is a static table relevant only to this portfolio).
- The most important addition is the Stake Ratchet and Stop-loss simulation (an example of a medium-aggressive progressive staking plan: Chrono tab), which will provide you with the ideas and tools to manage your money professionally and make it work at optimum levels in order to maximise profits.
About the Author
Dear Soccerwidow, i’ve tried out inflection point graphs for U/O2.5 goals using HO/AO and HO/AO range of (0.095-0.237) gave me results which look good for Germany BL 1 2016-15 season when back tested because all games ended in O2.5 goals. I think may be I made a mistake some how. Can I email you the table I used to check it out?
It seems, Odoo, that I misunderstood your previous question as you placed in an HDAFU Table article but referring to the Cluster Tables. Please ask any further questions re. Cluster Tables in the FAQ article: Frequently Asked Questions – Over Under Cluster Tables
In answer to your question… Do you know this article here? What are Inflection Points and their Use in System Betting It will probably provide you with the answer you’re looking for.
To answer your query shortly: No, it’s pretty unlikely that you made a mistake. Bookmakers adjust odds according to market pressure and expectations. So, if your backtesting shows good results then the future is likely to bring good results too. Just be very careful and adhere to a strict staking plan.
Dear Soccer widow, is it possible to get systems from HDAFU simulation table using quartiles in the IPHOAO section?
Dear Odoo, you can certainly try but to be honest, I do not know. This particular scenario I have not analysed and, therefore, I cannot say if it works or not. Sorry.
The Inflectionpoint HDAFU tables provide such a plethora of information and different angles that the quartile approach may be well worthwhile to explore.
Have a very Happy Xmas and good luck with your betting!
Hi? I’ve purchased the 2011-16 winter league campaign. I want to know how you compute the odds rank* column.
Hi Odoo,
Firstly, Excel can only cope with 200 markers for a graph.
The Inflection Points graph in your spreadsheet is powered by data from the Odds Rank column.
If you sort the data (rows 6:1833) by the odds column L (smallest to largest), you will see that the odds rank numbers in column B then line-up in batches from 1-200.
To assign the 200 groups of numbers it is merely a case of dividing the total number of data sets by 200. In this case, 1,828 matches divided by 200 provides roughly nine matches per batch (rank).
I hope this answers your question and helps you to understand how Excel graphs work.
Thanks for your question and all the best for now!