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How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?
Simply put, overround is the bookmaker’s profit margin. Overround percentages vary and usually average between 4 and 7%, depending on the bookmaker.
Although bookmaker odds do not always fully represent the ‘true’ (expected)...
When to Back Instead of Lay Betting: Asian Handicap; Double Chance; Dutching…
This article explores the alternatives to laying at the betting exchanges in order to bet against a result.
Every bettor should try to optimise the financial return from his/her risk, which means finding absolutely the best prices available.
Of...
True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)
This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
The...
True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History
In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
Our bet selections are always based on true...
Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?
The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker.
The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays
Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen.
Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)
Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Football Betting Permutations: 5 Cup Finals in 5 Days
Slim chance for the favourites?
It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea.
Having...
Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues
Both sides of the coin…
The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.
Image: koya979 (Shutterstock)
The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.
From...
What is a Bet? How to Calculate Mathematical Advantage?
It is difficult to believe but, there are plenty of people around who have little idea exactly what a bet is or what is meant whenever I mention being interested in betting or the fact that I run a Web site about online football betting.
Obviously...
