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1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
Numerous Web sites and forums pay homage to the Lay The Draw strategy with prolific threads from supporters claiming to have found extremely lucrative 1×2 betting systems. Therefore, I have decided to explore lay the draw betting in detail...
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
We often receive queries asking how to calculate odds for league newcomers and why we don’t develop a Value Bet Calculator for league matches involving teams without head-to-head (H2H) history, or their respective last 25 matches being in...
Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement
In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed...
How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?
Simply put, overround is the bookmaker’s profit margin. Overround percentages vary and usually average between 4 and 7%, depending on the bookmaker.
Although bookmaker odds do not always fully represent the ‘true’ (expected)...
When to Back Instead of Lay Betting: Asian Handicap; Double Chance; Dutching…
This article explores the alternatives to laying at the betting exchanges in order to bet against a result.
Every bettor should try to optimise the financial return from his/her risk, which means finding absolutely the best prices available.
Of...
True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)
This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
The...
True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History
In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
Our bet selections are always based on true...
Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?
The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker.
The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays
Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen.
Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)
Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Football Betting Permutations: 5 Cup Finals in 5 Days
Slim chance for the favourites?
It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea.
Having...
