When to Back Instead of Lay Betting: Asian Handicap; Double Chance; Dutching…



  • The lay price for M’gladbach was 1.83 at Betfair
  • Hamburg’s Asian Handicap price for +0.5 goals at Pinnacle was 2.24
  • The Double Chance (Draw/Hamburg) X2 bet at 32Red was priced at 2.13
  • The best draw price was with 5Dimes at 3.99; Pinnacle provided the best odds to back Hamburg at 4.93

Required Result:

  • Four different bet types all with the same aim: to bet against M’gladbach winning the game


  • M’gladbach’s actual (‘true’) statistical chance of winning the game in this example was exactly 51%


Suppose you are faced with 100 identical lay bets (same odds, same back bet opportunities, etc.):

  1. What is the long-term profit or loss for 100 bets:
    i) Laying M’gladbach with an exchange at 5% commission?
    Backing Hamburg in the Asian Handicap +0.5 market with a bookmaker at zero commission?

  2. What is the expected long-term profit or loss if you bet with an even distribution:
    25 lay bets with an exchange at 5% commission?
    25 Asian Handicap bets with bookmakers at zero commission?
    25 double chance back bets with bookmakers at zero commission?
    25 ‘Dutch’ back bets with bookmakers at zero commission?

What next?

We find that Pinnacle Sports and Bet365 are currently the top bookmakers for Asian Handicap betting. An account with both is therefore essential for those of you who regularly bet on lay results in betting exchanges.

By all means post any questions or queries you may have about this article or more general feedback in the Leave a Reply box at the bottom of this page as it always makes us happy to hear from you.

Last Update: 28 September 2012

Categories:Betting Exchanges Bookmakers Odds Calculation

4 Responses to “When to Back Instead of Lay Betting: Asian Handicap; Double Chance; Dutching…”

  1. 21 February 2017 at 6:09 pm #

    hi soccerwidow,
    gladbach actual winning the game is 51%.
    so, the losing the game is 49%.
    for 1.
    in 100 bets , there will be 51games win and 49games lose probability.
    i) if laying gladbach in exchange after 100 bets to win 10units the profit will 510units.
    loss will be 427.77units. (8.73*49)
    total profit be 82.23
    (ii) backing hamburg in asian handicap the profit be same 510 but the lost reduce 394.94.
    the overall profit will be 115.06.

    2.if in 25 even distribution . the win in each distribution be 13 and lost be 12.
    profit 25.24units in 25 lay bets with exchange.
    profit 33.28units in 25 handicap match.
    profit 31.96units in double chance match.
    profit 32.8units in ‘dutch’ back match.

    if i wrong , please enlighten me. please .

  2. 9 June 2014 at 9:05 pm #

    Second request to my message above.

    Thank you.

  3. 16 March 2013 at 6:10 am #

    Great stuff here. Are there answers to the questions posed on page 4 of this article?

    Please advise. Thank you.



  4. 7 March 2013 at 2:14 am #

    Hi, very interesting article with some good advice. But it doesn’t look like you’ve considered your approach to staking & risk when you are betting on multiple lines, or betting and laying simultaneously in the same market, especially in a single Betfair market. For my paper on this topic, please see rankingsoftware.com/research.html.

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