Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie


Goals Galore – Relative Deviation Graphs

Taking the same information we used to build the first set of four graphs, we can now produce graphs showing the relative deviations (the average figure over five seasons), which will shed more light on the statistics from a betting perspective:

Line graph showing relative deviation of EPL over/under X goals market - five seasons 2006-2011

English Premier League 2006-2011: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals – Relative Deviation

Line graph showing relative deviation of Ligue 1 over/under X goals market - five seasons 2006-2011

French Le Championnat 2006-2011: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals – Relative Deviation

Line graph showing relative deviation of German Bundesliga 1 over/under X goals market - five seasons 2006-2011

German Bundesliga 1 2006-2011: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals – Relative Deviation

Line graph showing relative deviation of Dutch Eredivisie over/under X goals market - five seasons 2006-2011

Dutch Eredivisie 2006-2011: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals – Relative Deviation


Interpreting the Relative Deviation Graphs

Looking at the graphs you will see that the ‘over’ and ‘under’ goal event curves again intersect somewhere between two and three goals in all four leagues.

Dutch football fan with face painted in the colours of the Dutch flagImage: Michiel de Wit (Shutterstock)

The meaning of this is that bets on ‘over 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 goals’ have a smaller variance (error).

Therefore, they are “safer” selections than bets on ‘under 2.5, 1.5 or 0.5 goals’, which show greater fluctuations in distribution over the five seasons.

After the curves cross the situation changes and the under ‘X’ goals curve shows a diminishing relative deviation (error).

Once again, this means that bets become “more reliable” (i.e. they have a smaller and smaller variance), the higher the under ‘X’ goals event category climbs.


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Last Update: 9 May 2012

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2 Responses to “Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie”

  1. 29 September 2016 at 4:34 pm #

    Thank you for sharing this article. So in an attempt to be more practical. Assuming we detected that under 1,5 goals has an average of 9% success with a deviation of +-1,5%. That would mean the range should vary from 7,5% to 10,5%. How could we build our portfolio? Take the worse scenario of 7,5% which means we need a minimum odds of 1/0,075 equals 13,33. But who can guarantee that we will get these odds from the bookies?

    • 30 September 2016 at 9:09 am #

      Hi betakos, there is no “guarantee” that you will get your desired odds from the bookies. If you use exchanges such as Smarkets then, of course, you can “ask” for your desired odds and hope that somebody matches your bet.

      Do you know my course Fundamentals of Sports Betting – Over/Under X Goals? In part 2 I explain in great length how to utilise the knowledge of odds calculation, and with the cluster tables which come with the course I provide readers with a powerful portfolio betting tool for value betting.

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