Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie


Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.

Goal full of soccer ballsImage: koya979 (Shutterstock)

The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.

From a betting perspective however, the French league is a more sound proposition because its results are statistically more reliable and predictable.

In this article we explore the ‘Goal Habits’ of four major European leagues and compare them using “simple” line graphs.

Goals Galore – Distribution Graphs

Line graph showing goal distribution in the EPL - five seasons 2006-2011

English Premier League: 20 teams; 380 games per season

Line graph showing goal distribution in the French Ligue 1 - five seasons 2006-2011

French Ligue 1: 20 teams; 380 games per season

Line graph showing goal distribution in the German Bundesliga 1 - five seasons 2006-2011

German Bundesliga 1: 18 teams; 306 games per season

Line graph showing goal distribution in the Dutch Eredivisie - five seasons 2006-2011

Dutch Eredivisie: 18 teams; 306 games per season


Last Update: 9 May 2012

Categories:Case Studies Odds Calculation Value Betting Academy



2 Responses to “Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie”

  1. betakos
    29 September 2016 at 4:34 pm #

    Thank you for sharing this article. So in an attempt to be more practical. Assuming we detected that under 1,5 goals has an average of 9% success with a deviation of +-1,5%. That would mean the range should vary from 7,5% to 10,5%. How could we build our portfolio? Take the worse scenario of 7,5% which means we need a minimum odds of 1/0,075 equals 13,33. But who can guarantee that we will get these odds from the bookies?

    • Soccerwidow
      30 September 2016 at 9:09 am #

      Hi betakos, there is no “guarantee” that you will get your desired odds from the bookies. If you use exchanges such as Smarkets then, of course, you can “ask” for your desired odds and hope that somebody matches your bet.

      Do you know my course Fundamentals of Sports Betting – Over/Under X Goals? In part 2 I explain in great length how to utilise the knowledge of odds calculation, and with the cluster tables which come with the course I provide readers with a powerful portfolio betting tool for value betting.

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