Tag Archives: football betting

Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 207 Bets, 07/12/2011 – 31/05/2012

The end of the month has arrived again and after 17 match analyses and 48 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our summary. May was the first month we published our value bet articles and predictions in both Betfair’s German...
Man with measure tape and golden coins / Mann mit Messband und goldenen Münzen

Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays

Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen. Image: Elnur (Shutterstock) Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
3d target and arrows / 3D Target mit Pfeilen

UCL Final: Bayern Munich v. Chelsea – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap...
Teacher standing near blackboard in classroom / Lehrerin in der Nähe der Tafel im Klassenzimmer

Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues

Both sides of the coin… The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 159 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/04/2012

After five months of writing match previews and bet recommendations both in the English and German language versions of Betfair’s blog, it is time to review the results and ultimately compare them with Betfair’s own odds (i.e. predicted...
Goal full of soccer balls / Tor voller Fußbälle

Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals. Image: koya979 (Shutterstock) The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches. From...
Handcuffed businessman with bank notes / Mit Handschellen am Rücken gefesselter Geschäftsmann mit Banknoten in den Händen

Betfair Premium Charge Part 2

Death Of The Dream: So, my case scenario revolves around the fact that you are statistically more likely to belong to the 99.5% majority of Betfair customers who have a tendency to lose more bets than you win. If so, you can rest assured that...
G-cramp squeezing oil from coins

Betfair Premium Charge Part 1

The Naked Truth: I had always believed that if I found one good strategy (or hopefully more), I could sit back and earn an easy, tax-free living from betting, whilst at the same time having fun operating this blog and explaining to other people...
Stock market concept - globe with charts in background / Börse Konzept - Globus mit Diagrammen im Hintergrund

Is Football Betting Safer than Stock Market Trading? A Few Thoughts…

In the German language version of my article, “An observation about stock trading and football betting” a comment was recently received from a keen observer (translated as follows): “Companies can go bust. Then the entire share...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 109 bets, from 07/12/2011 to 31/03/2012

Patience and persistence is paying off. Since December 2011, Soccerwidow has published regular match previews and betting recommendations mostly for English Premier League and German Bundesliga 1 games in the German language Betfair blog. For...