Euro 2012: Republic of Ireland v Croatia – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips


All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 9th June, 2012…


Ireland Quicker on the Draw:

You would have to believe this is a must-win game for both countries with seemingly tougher tests against Spain and Italy to follow in the group.

Ireland are becoming draw specialists abroad if their last 30 competitive away/neutral matches are anything to go by with four 0-0 results, 10 times 1-1, and once 2-2. Indeed, in addition to 15 drawn games, they were also drawing at half-time in 15 matches. They kept 16 first half clean sheets and conceded only 16 first half goals in total.

Croatia have won 17 of their last 30 games in all competitions away from home and on neutral ground. At half-time, they were losing on only four occasions, turning one of these situations into a win but lost the other three. They were drawing 12 games at half-time, kept 22 first half clean sheets, and conceded only 10 first half goals in total.

Ireland are on an unbeaten run of 14 matches home and abroad, whilst Croatia have won just one of their last four matches. In their last 30 games away from the Emerald Isle, Ireland have scored 38 times and conceded 29. Croatia scored 49 and conceded 30 in their equivalent matches.


Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Ireland’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 1.6.2002):

  • Full-time Result = Ireland wins: 10 (33.3%); Draws: 15 (50%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
  • Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-W-D-W-D-W
  • Lost “to nil”: 3 times (10%)

Ireland’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 1.6.2002):

  • Full-time Result = Ireland wins: 1 (25%); Draws: 3 (75%); Defeats: 0 (0%)
  • Lost “to nil”: 0 (0%)

Croatia’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 21.6.2004):

  • Full-time Result = Croatia wins: 17 (56.7%); Draws: 7 (23.3%); Defeats: 6 (20%)
  • Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-W-D-W-D-W
  • Won “to nil”: 7 times (23.3%)

Croatia’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 21.6.2004):

  • Full-time Result = Croatia wins: 2 (28.6%); Draws: 3 (42.9%); Defeats: 2 (28.6%)
  • Won “to nil”: once (14.3%)


Identified Value Bets:

  • Value Betting Tip 1: Back Full-time Result: Draw (Odds: 3.2; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.19; Value: 45.9%; Probability 45.6%).
  • Bet LOST

  • Value Betting Tip 2: Lay Croatia win to nil (Odds: 3.6; Zero or ‘true’ back odds: 7.29; Value 64.3%; Probability: 86.3%). Backing Croatia win to nil “No” at a price of 1.38 brings exactly the same outcome.
  • Bet WON

MATCH RESULT:
FT – Republic of Ireland 1-3 Croatia
HT – Republic of Ireland 1-2 Croatia



We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.


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Last Update: 9 June 2012

Categories:Match Previews



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