Demystifying Betting Myths
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Euro 2012: Spain v France – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 22nd June, 2012…

Spain 2 Retain or Chance 4 France?

These teams really don’t like each other despite the fact they have to live next door to one another. Historically, neither has been able to gain much of an advantage and in 31 matches since 1922, the records show 13 wins to Spain and 11 to France.

Despite Spain’s current world domination, we believe that France is one of the only teams in the tournament capable of beating them at the top of their game and to be honest, the Spanish have not hit top gear so far at Euro 2012. This may sound ludicrous when looking at both team’s recent records.

Spain have won 24 (80%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, losing only two (Switzerland at WC 2010, and USA at the Confederations Cup in 2009). They have scored 61 (1st half: 24, 2nd half: 37), and conceded 18 (1st half: five, 2nd half: 13), with an average of 2.63 goals per game. France have won 13 (43.3%) of their equivalent last 30 games abroad, losing seven (23.3%). They have scored 37 (1st half: 17, 2nd half: 20), and conceded 26 (1st half: 14, 2nd half: 12), with an average of 2.1 goals per game.

Spain have 16 clean sheets (53.3%), whilst France have 15 (50%). Spain have scored and shutout their opponents on 14 occasions (46.7%), whilst France have done this 11 times (36.7%). On neutral territory within the last 30 matches abroad, Spain’s win ratio drops slightly to 73.7% (14 wins in 19), but France’s drops further to just 27.3% (three wins in 11).

However, recent history shows that in the last six competition meetings between these two stretching back to the 1984 European Championships, France have won five and drawn one. In fact, these are the only competition meetings between the teams. Case closed, surely..?! 🙂

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Spain’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 10.6.2008):

  • Half-time Score: 0-0 = 12 times (40%)
  • Both teams to score: No = 18 times (60%)

Spain’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 10.6.2008):

  • Half-time Score: 0-0 = 10 times (52.6%)
  • Both teams to score: No = 14 times (73.7%)

France’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 27.6.2006):

  • Half-time Score: 0-0 = 13 times (43.3%)
  • Both teams to score: No = 19 times (63.3%)

France’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 27.6.2006):

  • Half-time Score: 0-0 = 5 times (45.5%)
  • Both teams to score: No = 7 times (63.6%)

Identified Value Bets:

  • Value Betting Tip 1: There is ‘value’ in backing the draw at half-time at odds of 2.16. The ‘true’ odds should be 1.69 and the bet therefore carries value of 28.1% with a probability of succeeding at 59.3%. Spain have drawn 14 times (46.7%) at half-time in their last 30 competitive matches abroad, whilst France have drawn 18 (60%) of their equivalent half-time results.
  • Bet LOST

  • Value Betting Tip 2: Laying the draw at full-time also provides some value at odds of 3.6. The ‘true’ back odds should be nearer 4.05, so this one carries 12.4% value and a probability of 75.3%. However, we disregarded this bet on the grounds that France have drawn 10 of their last 30 competitive matches abroad (33.3%).
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 3: Back Half-time Score: 0-0 (Odds: 2.6; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.2; Value 32.8%; Probability: 45.4%).
  • Bet LOST

  • Value Betting Tip 4: Back Both teams to score: “No” (Odds: 1.8; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.53; Value 17.3%; Probability: 65.2%).
  • Bet WON

FT – Spain 2-0 France
HT – Spain 1-0 France

We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

Last Update: 22 June 2012

Categories:Match Previews

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