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Euro 2012: England v Italy – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 23rd June, 2012…

Early Olympic Test for England:

Italy have been saying all week that they are the underdogs for this match and it doesn’t sound like they are bluffing. The stats suggest that they really should be considered the outsiders for this match despite being crowned world champions just six years ago, and paradoxically so, in view of England’s failure to win anything at all in the last 46 years. Something doesn’t quite add-up does it?

England have scored 47 times and conceded 21 in their last 30 competitive games abroad (average 2.27 goals per match), whilst Italy have racked up 40 goals and conceded 29 in their equivalent fixtures (average 2.3 goals per match). They have an impressive 17 (56.7%) clean sheets to Italy’s 10 (33.3%), whilst in just 10 of England’s 30 games (33.3%) both teams have scored, as opposed to Italy’s figure of 17 (56.7%).

England have only been losing at half-time twice (6.7%) during their last 30 games, on both occasions going on to lose at full-time. Italy have been behind eight times (26.7%) at the interval, eventually losing five, drawing one, and winning two. On neutral ground within their last 30 matches abroad, England have been behind at half-time just once (9.1%), a match they eventually lost 4-1 to Germany. Italy have been behind six times (42.9%).

Italy have been under 3.5 goals in 25 (83.3%) of their last 30 competitive matches abroad, whilst England’s record shows 22 (73.3%) such events.

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

England’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.10.2004):

  • England wins: 18 (60%); Draws: 7 (23.3%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
  • Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-W-D-D-W-W
  • Opposition Clean Sheets: 6 (20%)

England’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 13.10.2004):

  • England wins: 5 (45.5%); Draws: 5 (45.5%); Defeats: 1 (9.1%)
  • Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-L-W-D-D
  • Opposition Clean Sheets: 2 (18.2%)

Italy’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.7.2006):

  • Italy wins: 14 (46.7%); Draws: 11 (36.7%); Defeats: 5 (16.7%)
  • Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-D-D-W-W
  • Clean Sheets: 10 (33.3%)

Italy’s matches on neutral ground within their last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 4.7.2006):

  • Italy wins: 2 (14.3%); Draws: 9 (64.3%); Defeats: 3 (21.4%)
  • Last 6 Full-time Results (most recent first): W-D-D-L-D-D
  • Clean Sheets: 3 (21.4%)

Identified Value Bets:

England v Italy has been analysed to death by the masses and the odds on offer in most of the betting categories are either under-valued or bang on the ‘zero’ or ‘true’ odds. Subsequently, we don’t have much more than a couple of tentative suggestions for you.

  • Value Betting Tip 1: Back England: Draw No Bet (Odds: 1.98; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.6; Probability: 62.5%). This is an ‘insurance’ bet providing: a return of 0.96 to a 1 unit stake should England win; full stake return (i.e. no win or loss) in the event of a draw; full stake loss should Italy win.
  • Bet VOID

  • Value Betting Tip 2: Back Italy Clean Sheet: “No” (Odds: 1.52; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.3; Probability: 76.8%). You would be betting on England to score at least 1 goal during the regulation 90 minutes in order to win this wager.
  • Bet LOST

FT – England 0-0 Italy
HT – England 0-0 Italy
(Italy won 4-2 on penalties, after extra time)

We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

Last Update: 23 June 2012

Categories:Match Previews

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