2 July 2025

33 thoughts on “1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

  1. thanks for the reply. Was thinking of doing some small stakes testing of the tables for this season, maybe start with the Bundesliga or Eredivise.

    1. Hi Gary, if you are thinking of starting with only two, try the Bundesliga and France Ligue 2. They both play uncanny ‘statistically correct’. 🙂

    1. Hi Gary,

      1×2 and Over/Under are two completely different bet types. The tables, you were referring to in your previous comments are 1×2 simulation tables, the course is about Over/Under betting. Right now, there is no course on 1×2 betting, only the tables.

      In addition, the 1×2 tables are for ‘systematic’ betting, and the Over/Under course is for ‘value betting’.

      Thanks for this question, I will see if I address it in an article as you are probably not the only one who gets confused.

  2. Hi it’s ok I know that they’re different bet types. I’m just very interested in exploiting the mismatch in bookie’s odds, whether it be 1×2 or under/over goals. I’m also very interested in working out how to calculate the odds. Just confusing which one to choose now, as a novice.

    1. Go for the course. It’s a very comprehensive piece of work which teaches a huge amount about betting. One of our readers even said “It’s not just about over/under betting. It teaches you everything.” You will learn how odds are calculated, how bookmakers make their money, false beliefs are being removed.

  3. Hi,

    Following on from our previous conversation, I purchased the over / under betting course which has proven invaluable in working out how to calculate odds. I love your products!

    I’ve read the PDF from cover to cover several times and I’m confident with the maths, but now I’m struggling how to apply it?

    I’ve built a spreadsheet using the main leagues in Europe from football-data, so I can compare the odds between teams present in the respective leagues for 5 years, but then for some cases you don’t need to do that and you only need 25 games history.

    I like the idea of mixing systematic strategies with individual team strategies, but to be honest I don’t know where to go from here.

    Thanks again,
    Gary

    1. Hi Gary, from our previous conversation I understand that you are struggling to make heads and tails between the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course and the HDAFU Tables. These two products are totally unrelated!

      Both products, of course, address the gambling market, but they look at betting not only from totally different perspectives, but also at different markets. The course is for Over/Under markets whilst the HDAFU Tables are for the 1×2 market.

      The course… allows you to calculate each match individually; you can compile a portfolio of bets for any weekend of your choice; you don’t need to bet each weekend during the season without fail; you can carry out the calculation well ahead of the matches

      The HDAFU tables… are a tool to develop a betting system for constant betting on one or more leagues, e.g. betting on the underdogs in the German BL if the odds are higher that X; the HDAFU tables don’t require calculations each weekend or any understanding of maths, but… the HDAFU tables require the punter, once he/she hve decided which system to play, to start pretty close to the beginning of the season, or at the start of the second half of the season. A betting system developed with the HDAFU tables requires that bets are being placed every weekend during the run of the system without fail.

      Summa Summarum… The HDAFU Table are for ‘Systematic Betting’; the course is for ‘Strategic Value Betting’.

      Back to the course… it does not matter if you use the Cluster Tables to calculate the probabilities and make your picks (5 years data), or the VC approach (last 25 games and H2H results). You have the choice to pick one of the two which you find more comfortable to use. I explained both in the course because in the 1st edition of the course, I hadn’t explained the VC and we’ve had plenty of queries enquiring on how to use the VC for Over/Under betting. This is why the VC was included in the course as an alternative to the Cluster Tables.

      There are many roads that lead to Rome. Which one you finally take it’s totally up to you. 🙂

      1. Hi Soccerwidow,

        You write… ‘the HDAFU tables require the punter, once he/she hve decided which system to play, to start pretty close to the beginning of the season, or at the start of the second half of the season. A betting system developed with the HDAFU tables requires that bets are being placed every weekend during the run of the system without fail.’

        I’m still doing the Fundamentals of Betting Course and am not quite ready to start betting. Plus, it would be a good idea for me to papertest.

        Does this mean I can’t properly do a weekly portfolio of betting systems (based on the HDAFU tables) until the beginning of next season, or at least halfway through this season? Would it be ill-advised for me to use the HDAFU and to jump into the betting in a month’s time or so?

        Also, I gather this is a wholly different system to using the value calculator to analyse individual matches and to make a weekly portfolio of bets based simply on bets I find which have value? Is it fine to start using the value calculator to place a weekly portfolio of value bets at any point in the season?

        1. Hello again Audiendi,

          The HDAFU Tables are designed for long-term system betting, whilst the Value Calculator can definitely be used as and when required on individual games or weekends.

          Therefore, it doesn’t matter when you start betting with the Value Calculator – you can dip in and out of a season as you see fit.

          With the HDAFU Tables, it also doesn’t really matter when you start, so long as you view the exercise as a long-term project and are prepared to keep it going until you have met your personal targets or need a break.

          However, with both approaches, the start of a season is usually the most volatile time as results are a little more random, with more statistical noise, and a league usually takes several rounds before things have settled into recognisable patterns.

          As ever, we advise that you paper test everything before committing real money to any strategy. You may feel that having done all of the homework to prove that something works historically, that it must also work going forwards, and that it is okay to risk money from the start.

          However, you will often find that things need fine-tuning in a live arena and this is a painless exercise if you don’t have to worry about losing money at the same time.

          You will also find more focus to getting a system right if you are looking objectively at the situation rather than being emotionally drawn by a series of bets during the experimental phase. Placing those initial bets on paper achieves exactly the same result.

  4. Hi,

    Thanks for getting back to me. I guess I thought I could apply some of the knowledge gained in the OU course to calculate HDAFU odds and value with these bets, but I guess your tables do this job! My next purchase will be an HDAFU table or two so I can expand my portfolio. Which HDAFU tables would you recommend to start with?

    1. Hello Gary,

      All of the HDAFU tables contain something of interest, and we also backdate the discounts for multiple purchases if you decide to buy the tables on a drip feed basis.

      In other words, if you buy two now, we’ll refund the 20% offered once you have bought your fifth table, and so on.

      Just drop us an email to tell us when you reach each discount threshold.

      A couple of recommendations to begin with?

      Well, Italy Serie A and the German Bundesliga are great examples. You can get them here.

      Thanks again for your contribution and best of luck!

  5. Dear Elena,

    hope you’re doing well. I have the following somewhat interesting questions no one has asked before if I’m correct:

    (1) The inflection Points of how many previous seasons in your opinion would be optimal to build your strategy on? You’ve mentioned previously that you think that 6 are too many.

    (2) When the new season starts, do you discard the oldest season and include the Inflections of the last season?

    Thank you for your valuable thoughts on that!

    Florian

    1. Hi Florian,

      as I already said, 6 seasons are probably too many. There are too many changes in the format of the leagues, different teams competing, or now, this virus affecting the 1×2 performance. There is always something going on. Five seasons for the Inflection Point graphs proved to be ideal and it certainly shows trends. However, if you calculate individual matches then you can always check your calculations by using the last 25 matches (that is 1.5 years). Anything less it’s too little and statistically speaking, too much noise.

      To your (2) question: Yes, when the new season starts you drop the oldest season and replace it with the season that just finished.

      By the way, currently, the Cluster Tables seem to perform much more reliable than the HDAFU tables. Playing without crowd hasn’t so much affected the total goal count but it somewhat seems that there are many more away teams currently winning than previously. Regarding odds and distribution, Rob is currently looking into that and writing on an article.

      Good luck!
      Soccerwidow

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