# Author Archives: Soccerwidow

## 1×2 Football Betting – How to Compile a Winning Portfolio

This article moves away from betting on individual teams, and pushes strategic thinking further up the knowledge ladder. The method described below explains how to use our HDA simulation tables for recognising profitable 1×2 betting strategies...

## Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section....

## The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping

One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...

## Why Football is Better than Sex !

In 2008, a survey carried out by Canon in six European countries(1) came up with the remarkable result that 72 per cent of those asked said they would prefer 90 minutes watching their favourite team rather than an intimate evening with their...

## Arbitrage between Bookmakers and Cross Market Arbitrage

(1) Arbitrage between Two Bookmakers in One Betting Market This is the classic form of sports arbitrage (sure bets) in football betting. The arbitrage opportunity relies on at least two bookmakers evaluating the same event differently, each...

## Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Introduction The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...

## Get Permission to Use Images Displayed on Soccerwidow

Copyright Law & Licencing The images we use for illustration purposes throughout this website are often stock photos, purchased from outstanding libraries such as Shutterstock. Image: alexkatkov (Shutterstock) We sometimes modify these...

## How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting

Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance. When using odds in European format (decimal) you...

## What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?

A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size. This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...

## Alexa Rank, Visitor Count & Country Popularity – Accuracy Problem

What is Alexa Ranking? How Important is it? In order to compare websites and evaluate their popularity there are several tools on the Internet which generate comparison information. One of the most well-known is Alexa Rank. Alexa is a subsidiary...