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Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics


Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!

Cartoon: Blindfolded people walk precariously close to the edge of a cliffRemember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.

Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)

It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.

The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!

This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.

What Do You Get For The Money?

The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.

To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.

All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!

In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.

Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

PRODUCT SUMMARY

Fundamentals of Sports Betting - book cover
  • Format: PDF & XLS
  • Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
  • Pages: 169 (almost 38,000 words)
  • Tables and graphs: 70
  • Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Only £59.00*

* 0% VAT to UK customers, 0% VAT to Non-EU customers     Read more: EU VAT Legislation    


>>> read an excerpt from the book <<<



PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing

For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.

Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.

The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.

Contents at a Glance

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability

Basic Statistical Terminology

  • Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
  • Deviation from the Mean
  • Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
  • Precision, Trueness and Accuracy

Betting Odds Calculation

  • Probability and Betting Odds
  • Opening Betting Odds Range
  • Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds

Risk Management Control

  • Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
  • Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
  • Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank

Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy

Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Market Dynamics

  • Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
  • Falling Odds represent Price Increase
  • Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions

Building of Cluster Groups

  • What are Cluster Groups?
  • Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team

Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

  • Goal Distribution by Team
  • Team Calculation Tables
  • Standard Deviation Tables
  • Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds

Finding Value Bets

  • Everything that Glitters is not Gold
  • Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
  • Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
  • Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification


>>> frequently asked questions <<<


…or ask any questions in the comment section below.


Last Update: 20 November 2016

Categories:Money Management Odds Calculation S T O R E Value Betting Academy



56 Responses to “Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics”

  1. Teck Chuan Lee
    18 July 2016 at 6:40 am #

    I got a little confused with %cv adjustments

    Say I got a range of fair odds 1.25 to 1.35 for over 1.5 market

    What odds is considered value back bet?
    What odds is considered value lay bet?

    Is it the same for over and under market ?

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      18 July 2016 at 7:14 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      You only bought the course 2 days ago. It takes a genius to work through and completely understand the whole book in such a short period of time.

      Therefore, please work through the course from the beginning, do all the exercises, especially everything in part one, before you even look at part two (which is about betting though; I therefore understand that you probably read this part first and are now stuck) and then you will be able to answer your own question with great confidence.

      Good luck!

      It’s a lot to learn, I appreciate this. But learning and comprehending takes time!

  2. Graeme
    20 July 2016 at 6:58 am #

    I found the first course an invaluable insight into how the markets are priced and how things work, and will certainly be looking to add this updated edition to my collection.

    Everything I have purchased so far from Soccerwidow has been excellent and very good value and I would have no hesitation recommending the products to friends and family.

    Many thanks!

  3. Paul
    25 July 2016 at 7:05 am #

    Hello Soccerwidow,

    Came across your site. Found out you got a new course to offer.

    I am really interested and wondering if you do also bet based on what you teach in the course? Can I find any P/L records on your site?

    Thanks,
    Paul

    • Soccerwidow
      25 July 2016 at 8:13 am #

      Hi Paul,

      You will find an answer to your question in the article Frequently Asked Questions – Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course. Please scroll down to the bottom, you’ll find an answer to your question there.

      You may also be interested in the other ‘ethical’ questions asked by readers.

      I’m looking forward to your custom,
      Soccerwidow

  4. Teck Chuan Lee
    1 August 2016 at 2:44 am #

    I have just done over 100 matches of quartile betting, total goal market with %CV adjustments.
    Unfortunately I have not successfully gain a positive yield. At the moment about -3% yield, 20 units fixed risk/gain staking plan.

    Would you mind to help me out?

    1. I took historical odds statistics/results from Betexplorer. Their match result 1×2 odds is average bookmaker odds prior to match start.

    2. The leagues that I’m currently betting are MLS, Brazil, Japan, Sweden, China and Denmark.
    Majority is MLS Brazil and Japan. Have I selected wrong leagues? So far hits and misses for all leagues except for Brazil.

    3. I bet when 10% value, 70% hit rates appear. I have seen many instances where a back bet shows 1 – 5 % value, but lay bets shows a much higher value, 20 to 30%. Is it true that lay bets usually holds more value than back bets?

    4. MLS brazil and japan has 85 matches of data, Sweden china and denmark has only 75, is 75 matches data enough? I wonder this affects my odd computations.

    5. My spreadsheets will evenly divide data into 4 quartiles. Unlike what you have shown in your PDF where you divide them manually. Some 22 some 19. Do you think its ok?

    6. I would like you to have a look at my spreadsheets and my betting records, if thats OK.

    Please advise. I really hope to bet for long term.

    • Soccerwidow
      4 August 2016 at 8:15 am #

      Hi Teck Chuan,

      Some leagues play statistically more reliable than others. Brazil definitely yes, Japan and China, no. It probably depends on their league format. But I cannot say that for sure.

      To you request to have a look at your spreadsheets… This is something I must unfortunately refuse. We have so much work that we don’t know what to do first; I cannot add anything more. Sorry! However, ask your questions here, and I’ll reply as much in detail as possible.

      Best wishes,
      Elena

      • TeckChuan
        10 August 2016 at 7:07 am #

        Hey there why is japan not a good choice?
        I compare leagues with 5 years average relative deviation. is that good enough?

        focusing on any market which has 3.5% and below deviation.

        • Soccerwidow
          10 August 2016 at 9:05 am #

          Hi TeckChuan,

          Japan may be a good choice or not. Truly, I don’t know. Each league follows different patterns. What applies to one league does not necessarily applies to another.

          We mainly concentrate on the EPL and Bundesliga, and what I can say for sure is, that Japan has different patterns to those two leagues. But is is impossible to know every league in and out. For everybody, also for us. Therefore, as you are probably more interested for the Asian leagues that for the Europeans, then there is no reason why not to specialise on them. Just be careful to ‘mix and match’ in an intelligent manner, not randomly. Stick to a few leagues, learn everything about them, and become a master.

          Best wishes,
          Soccerwidow

  5. Teck Chuan Lee
    1 August 2016 at 2:18 pm #

    Results

    Excluding Sweden, Denmark and China leagues,

    41 matches of Major league soccer, yielded about 9%

    12 matches into Brazil league, yielded 29%

    13 matches into Japan league, yielded 2.4%

    MLS, Brazil and Japan has about 85 matches for quartile analysis.

    I would say this looks pretty promising. Thank you soccerwidow

    • Soccerwidow
      4 August 2016 at 8:16 am #

      Well done!

      Keep reporting 🙂

  6. shearer
    4 August 2016 at 11:16 am #

    Hi,

    I’d like to know whether we can use the same stats and math to find value about 1X2?

    • Soccerwidow
      4 August 2016 at 2:49 pm #

      This course is the first of a series of books educating the ‘Fundamentals of Sports Betting’.

      There are more topics planned such as ‘Betting on Home, Draw, Away’, ‘Asian Handicap’, or ‘Betting In-Play’, and so on. Of course, it will take a while until all of these books have been written and published, but we reassure you that more course books are on their way.

      For the first volume we have chosen the Over/Under goal market because this is the easiest betting market to teach statistics and maths without the need to dive any further into much more advanced formulas and concepts. You will need a basic grounding before moving on to more complex calculations for bet types with multiple options such as 1×2, HT/FT and the Correct Score market.

      To answer your question… yes and no… The 1×2 market uses more or less the same stats and maths, but to reliable find value there is more to consider than explained in this Over/Under Goals course.

  7. TC
    27 August 2016 at 11:46 am #

    I do not understand this part. please help.

    I bet when 10% value, 70% hit rates appear. I have seen many instances (betfair exchange) where a back bet shows 1 – 5 % value, but lay bets shows a much higher value, 20 to 30%. Is it true that lay bets usually holds more value than back bets?

    • Soccerwidow
      28 August 2016 at 9:35 am #

      Hi TC,
      you cannot generalise that lay bets hold more value than back bets. It all really depends on the market price offered for the bet.

      Please continue working through the course, repeat the exercises, until you really understand everything.

      Just as an aside, I asked a trained actuary to read through the course and provide me with comments as we are currently looking for a publishing house. Here is one of her comments:

      Probably four different times, I tried to jump ahead and not do some portion of the earlier exercises, because I was convinced I knew the probability calculations already. And even though I do, I found I really needed to just work through everything methodically if I really wanted to understand it. I bet other readers probably try to do the same thing! However, going through everything slowly and steadily, it is very well laid out and each piece builds on the next, just as it is intended to.

      Therefore, please, work and work and work through this course, and continue working. You may even have to repeat the exercises several times in order to understand everything. Please really work from the beginning to the end, don’t skip a single chapter.

      Good luck!

  8. ivan
    27 August 2016 at 6:33 pm #

    Hello,
    May I know prerequirement to read this e-book?

    • Soccerwidow
      28 August 2016 at 9:28 am #

      In order to keep this book down to a reasonable number of pages I have assumed that readers have had a little experience with statistics in the past. For example, you are familiar with terms such as ‘mean’ or ‘median’, can handle some graphs, and you may vaguely remember having seen a ‘distribution’.

      I have also anticipated that readers have a basic knowledge of mathematical operations and recognise signs used in algebra such as ‘x’, ‘y’, the summation sign, etc. Furthermore, I have assumed that the reader understands fundamentals such as finding the square root of a number, or squaring a number (or at least know where to find the right buttons to press on your calculator), and so on.

      But please don’t worry if you are challenged by maths or regard yourself as extremely rusty; I do explain things as thoroughly as possible as we go along.

      Of course, you’ll need a computer to read this PDF document, and having a calculation program such as Excel will certainly also help working through the exercises.

  9. Stan
    19 September 2016 at 8:45 am #

    Hi there,

    On Page 67 there’s a link: ‘Soccerwidow Value & Probability Calculator’, however it isn’t clickable on OSX. Could you tell me where it leads? 🙂

    Thanks!

  10. Stan
    19 September 2016 at 10:35 am #

    Another question: on page 69 you mention ‘Consistency with statistics is of vital importance’ with regards to using an unbroken chain of 25 matches, however, does this same principle apply to the H2H matches? Or can these be from any year as long as there are 6 or more in total?

    • Soccerwidow
      19 September 2016 at 10:48 am #

      Of course, it would be better if you could get 6 consecutive matches, or even 10, but teams have the habit of dropping out of a league and coming back again. Therefore, just 6 (or more) from the last 10 years is enough. There isn’t a way round it.

      • Stan
        19 September 2016 at 11:24 am #

        Thanks! And just to make sure – if a team has dropped out of a league 1 season due to degradation and got back in the next, would this render all future statistical analysis useless due to the break? Following the ‘consistency’ mantra seems to suggest so…?

        Or, can I interpret the ‘consistency’ better by reading it as ‘never skip any available data’?

      • Stan
        19 September 2016 at 11:27 am #

        ….ow, rereading that I meant the 25 streak, not the H2H games since you answered that 🙂

  11. Stan
    19 September 2016 at 2:50 pm #

    Working on 3.3.4 now and found some inconsistencies between the questions and the answers. You asked me to post those here, so here goes:

    Question C ii) asks after how many bets the longest winning streak can be expected. However the answer for that question is how long the longest winning streak lasts. Two different things.

    The longest winning streak at 20% and 500 bets is expected to be 4 bets in a row. Using the calculations before that would mean that it is expected to take 625 bets at a hitrate of 20% to hit a streak of 4.

    • Soccerwidow
      21 September 2016 at 10:49 am #

      Thanks for pointing out this little slip, we will make sure that when we revise the course we will provide the correct answer to this question.

      Brilliant! You calculated totally right! Well done! 🙂

      Feel free to continue pointing out whatever you find as we are planning to revise the course in November to remove any errors, doesn’t matter how tiny they are.

  12. Stan
    22 September 2016 at 12:20 pm #

    Hi there, me again 🙂

    Another question concerning value. In the course you seem to favour comparing the Yield to the RSD, however when I look at my calculations I find it far easier (and more intuitive, but that’s personal) to just compare the market odds with the high fair odds based on the probability range.

    Is that perfectly fine as well? Or am I missing some nuance that makes the Yield method more favourable?

    • Soccerwidow
      28 September 2016 at 9:21 am #

      Hi Stan, there are many roads which lead to Rome.

      I’m explaining the Yield/RSD comparison in the course, but if you have another method which works fine for you, then there is nothing wrong with using it.

  13. Jeff
    6 October 2016 at 3:53 pm #

    Could you please explain how you calculated profit/loss for both back and lay bets in table 12?

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      8 October 2016 at 10:39 am #

      Fig. 12: The back and lay odds in the table are taken from the Betfair screenshot (Fig. 11). I cannot see there any profit/loss calculations. Are we talking about the same course?

  14. Jeff
    8 October 2016 at 3:49 pm #

    Ah, I have the old course, the first edition. Didn’t realise there was a new version out.

    I think what I’m looking for is actually explained in the footnote.

    Profit = investment * value.

    Sorry should have looked closer!

  15. Daniele
    6 December 2016 at 5:07 am #

    Hello,
    i just finished the reading of your book, and found everything very interesting. I was womdering though if the same principles described in the book could be applied for 1×2 markets. In the specific, analyzing 1×2 data for 5 seasons, extrapolate means and deviation for everyone of them and adjusting the final results with the help of cluster tables build for this type of results. It seems to me that the very same approach could give quite satisfying results, please correct me if i’m wrong.Also i have a question regarding the building of cluster tables. Once i split the clusters into four quartiles based on the HO/AO quotient, how do i figure out the range of odds associated with every quartile? I hope my question is clear anough. Also, when do you plan to release new volumes of the series?

    I hope you will find the time to answer all of my questions.

    Thanks,
    Daniele

    • Soccerwidow
      6 December 2016 at 7:49 am #

      Hi Daniele,

      The 1×2 markets are more difficult because there are 3 results instead of just 2. The over/under markets are simply speaking just Yes or No. However, you are right, statistics are statistics. It’s all about means and deviations, plus for the HDA betting about the inflection points.

      Regarding your question about the range of odds… Please have a look in the Cluster Table “Betting Tables” tab. There you will find in the columns D and E the average home odds for each cluster. If this is not enough then you will have to produce you own little table.

      The next volume of the series is going to be predicting 1×2 results, and I really hope that in January/February I will find the time to write this new volume.

      By the way, would you mind to write up a testimonial on the course and post it here on the comment section? We need to increase sales so that we can employ (and pay) someone to assist us to publish this book as a hard copy to be sold on Amazon & Co.

      Many thanks,
      Soccerwidow

  16. Daniele
    12 December 2016 at 6:43 pm #

    Your course has proven to be invaluable. It teached me how to approach to statistical analysis to ensure the understanding of every odd that the bookies price. I am also developing a strategy based on what i learned on the book, and i have been able to create my own analysis tables for every league i am interested in. I am currently running a simulation on betting o

    • Daniele
      12 December 2016 at 6:50 pm #

      I am currently running a simulation based on finding values, and i have a solid idea on how to support what i have learned in the course with the help of inflection points and odds clusters regarding betting on 1×2. So i want to ask, if i buy the HDA simulation tables am i able to see excel formulas behind the calculations, like in the tables that came with the course? That helped me so much with understanding how to fine tuning this powerful betting tools to my needings! (And my excel competence, too)

      • Soccerwidow
        13 December 2016 at 8:32 am #

        Hi Daniele,

        I’m very happy to hear that you are finding the course so helpful, and of course you will be able to see the Excel formulas behind the calculations in the HDA tables. However, please be aware that these are two totally different products. The O/U course teaches odds calculation whilst the HDA tables are simulations “what would have happened when”. There is a course scheduled for next year which goes in depth with 1×2 betting and utilising the HDA tables.

  17. sarkec
    16 December 2016 at 10:10 pm #

    Hello!

    Did you try this method of calculation of goals before producing it?
    If yes, what results did you have?
    I understand the concepts presented in it, but I am very sceptic about getting good results from my value bets.
    Do you think someone can succeed long term with this method?

    Thanks

    • Soccerwidow
      20 December 2016 at 12:57 pm #

      Hi sarkec, it’s a while ago that we did public match previews, but here is our record: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

      My husband has been nagging on me for years to reveal to the public my method how I did the picks, and this how the course came to live.

      So, yes, you will get good results by using statistics!

      Good luck,
      Soccerwidow

  18. jo
    17 December 2016 at 11:07 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    in Germany 2010-2015 Over/Under workbook provided password for GD by Team tab is GbT@SW2015. In fact, the real password is GDbT@SW2015. And it’s the same for 2011-2016 Germany Over/Under wb – provided password misses “D”. For Data tab password Data@SW2015 doesn’t work in 2010-2015 wb, but works fine in 2011-2016. I tried some other options, but this time I’m not able to crack it. What is the password for 2010-2015 O/U workbook Data tab?

    • Soccerwidow
      20 December 2016 at 1:02 pm #

      Hi jo,

      Thanks for making us aware that we provided the wrong password for the GD by Team tab.

      However, Data@SW2015 works fine for me for the 2010-15 file and Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file.

  19. jo
    20 December 2016 at 3:27 pm #

    It’s really strange. I even tried Data@SW2015 on untouched copies of 2010-15 file and it doesn’t work, while Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file works fine.

    • Soccerwidow
      21 December 2016 at 8:09 am #

      Hi jo,

      I just reactivated your purchase. Please re-download the file and see if it works now.

      There was a bug with the passwords and we updated the Excel file in October what was after your purchase. So it should now work fine. At least I hope so. 🙂

      Sorry for any troubles,
      Soccerwidow

  20. jo
    21 December 2016 at 12:51 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    thank you, now it works fine:).

  21. ivan
    26 January 2017 at 11:43 am #

    I am a beginner and I don’ t know the meaning of back and lay. Can I buy this ebook?

    • Soccerwidow
      26 January 2017 at 12:32 pm #

      Hi ivan,

      the course explains not only the difference between back and lay, but also the opening odds range, you learn to calculate your own betting odds, and much more!

  22. Chris
    3 May 2017 at 11:08 am #

    I thought I would take the trouble to write and tell you that I love what you have achieved with Soccer Widow! I’ve seen a lot of so called experts selling products and services relating to gambling, but none of them have come close to SW’s offerings for me.

    I started with the Over/Under Odds Calculation Course and whilst it took me some time to get used to a “new” way of looking at markets because of some bad (unprofitable!) habits I had to reverse, I’m now on course to becoming profitable in my betting and considering plans to increase my existing tiny stakes (I’m naturally risk averse…) as a result of the positives I’m seeing coming from the mindset change.

    The Value Bet Detectors and HDAFU Tables are really challenging my perceptions of what the numbers mean and how to maximise their potential returns.

    Without the SW products and education, both paid for and all the free info shared in the blog, etc, none of this would be possible.

    In return, I’d like to say well done on a cracking product portfolio and thanks for helping me to find the light! I’m so looking forward to the new football season in August, my real life trials of the solutions you have provided so far have been very interesting and this year will see the Summer leagues I’m trialling between now and then be the first season results that are profitable for me.

    I can’t wait to see what you release next – I’m sure I will be buying it, whatever it is!

    Thanks again!

  23. Right Winger
    3 May 2017 at 11:22 am #

    Thanks Chris, we are humbled by your kind words!

    I’ve added a few links to your text to direct others to the products you mentioned.

    Yes, there is a stigma attached to any site that sells gambling related products, but as they are put together by mathematicians here who are unconnected and unemotional regarding the sport in general, success at gambling boils down to a simple numbers game.

    And bookmakers exist to take advantage of most people’s poor grasp of mathematics, I’m afraid.

    When I see adverts telling people to gamble responsibly and to stop when they are no longer having fun, I cringe to say the least. The reality of the situation is the strong preying on the weak, and the vast majority of people don’t gamble for fun – they gamble to win.

    Hopefully, we do help people reassess their own abilities when it comes to understanding gambling maths, and if we can stop them from losing, then that’s our job done.

    As you say, most of our guidance is in the form of free information on this site, but if people require the little extra help in the form of ready-made solutions on a plate, then the money they pay us for those products will probably be the best value they will ever receive for such small stakes in their gambling careers.

    All the best.

  24. mrgud
    15 October 2017 at 8:58 pm #

    Hi there,

    I was about to finish the course but I got stuck at the final exercise, from D) – the part where VC gets in the action. I tried both games from D) and one from E) but I couldn’t get the results you show in solutions.

    Hertha – Stuttgart. Screenshot shows 18 games Under 6.5 each. There were no 7 7+ games for each side.

    Bayern – Augsburg, why even do them when they had only 5 h2h? Also how did you get Bayern 9 and Augsburg 16 Under 2.5 games? I got 11 and 9.

    M’gladbach – HSV, Screnshoot you provided shows 8 h2h Under 6.5 – I got 9.

    I gave up after the last example. Wasted hours, triple checked the data I’m entering, and I’m off every time. So either I don’t have a clue what I’m doing or there’s something wrong with the answers provided. I enter last 25 league home games for the host and the away for visitors. Last 10 years of h2h competitive encounters where home team was also hosting. And of course, since matches from the book took place in Sep/2015 I entered the data preceding the games in question.

    I have a couple more questions about the course – but I’ll hold on to those till you help me figure out this final step.

    • Soccerwidow
      16 October 2017 at 6:27 am #

      Hi mrgud,

      Sorry for your troubles. I just checked the calculations for the course, and it seems that you have stumbled upon one mistake in the course book.

      Hertha – Stuttgart… The calculations which you have carried out are probably right as the VC I filled in for the course only contains 18 matches instead of 25. No idea, how that happened but it did. Sorry, mistakes happen.

      Bayern – Augsburg… I normally recommend 6 H2H matches, and you are on the safer site if you stick to this rule. However, for the course I did an exception to get enough exercises as we have only been analysing one single weekend in the Bundesliga.

      Bayern – Augsburg… … Please check your Under 2.5 Goals count again…. My goal count is correct, and logically speaking… Germany is one of the leagues with the highest goal count and Bayern contributes to that heavily. No way that Bayern has more Under 2.5 goal games than Augsburg.

      M’gladbach – HSV… Your count of 9 H2H matches is probably correct as there is one match on my list I couldn’t find the results for, so, I just simple disregarded it. Here are the 8 H2H matches which are included: 24.09.2014; 30.03.2014; 26.09.2012; 24.02.2012; 17.12.2010; 28.03.2010; 07.03.2009; 13.04.2007

      One major thing you probably learned through the course is that it’s all about statistics and strong deviations. Therefore, by not finding one H2H match for M’gladbach – HSV this didn’t freak me out. It was just adding to the uncertainty of the calculations.

      However, sorry for the mistake in the Hertha – Stuttgart game. This shouldn’t have happened.

      By the way, how did you find the course?

      Best wishes,
      Elena

  25. mrgud
    16 October 2017 at 7:59 pm #

    Hi Elena,

    Thanks for clarifying things.

    I have to apologize about Bayern – Augsburg. I was looking at the wrong numbers when writing that comment. What I meant was “I got 9 and 15”; 15 Under 2,5 for Augsburg; 1 from the 15/16 season, 11 from 14/15, and I only have 3 more from their last 7 away for the 13/14.

    About the course; I found it clear, understandable, concise, and as such easy to follow. I have some arbing experience so I was already familiar with some of the material. Several times while reading through I found myself thinking “Yeah, but if that’s the case what about this or that” – only to have “this or that” fully explained on the very next page (I had a few good laughs at myself about that). It feels very rewarding, gradually expanding on the matter, connecting the dots, and tying it all together beautifully towards the end. In short – didactic method done right.

    Still, I have to bother you with two more questions.
    In value bet example on page 86 we have zero odds at 1.23, range is 1.18 to 1.29 and market odds are 1.27. There you specify that since the market odds are within the expected range it is not a value bet. You also offer a shortcut to determine if a bet contains value i.e. if Yield (Value II) is lower than RSD (CV) it is not a value bet. Then we have the exercise 7.4 B) where market odds for Hoffenheim vs Werder and Hannover vs Dortmund are also higher then calculated zero odds, also fall within the range, and Value II is also lower than RSD – I calculated Yields of 2.56% and 2.63% respectively, however in solutions you say both are value bets. Only difference I could find is the use of HO/AO quotient to calculate probabilities for the latter.

    Finally, and this one bothers me most, I have a concern about Tempobet (or any bookie in the future with similar business model). They constantly offer heavily inflated odds on the favorites e.g. 1.18 on Bayern at home while the next best price is 1.10; or 1.65 on Leverkusen with 1.56 being second best. If we are using these odds as “public opinion correction factor”, and we have 79 bookies showing odds between 1.08 to 1.10 and just this one with 1.18 – it’s obvious what the public opinion is. I wouldn’t feel comfortable using their price for any calculations. Of course, this only becomes an issue when it affects in which cluster group a game falls, but I already saw it happen twice in few matches I checked. Am I wrong to dismiss their odds in such situations, or dismiss Tempobet and any bookies alike altogether?

    • Soccerwidow
      17 October 2017 at 8:57 am #

      Hi mrgud,

      Thanks for the praising words. I’m very happy that the course provided you with one or another insight and laugh. 🙂

      You are on the safer site when you carry out calculations with average odds. Therefore, you can dismiss Tempobet without worrying too much about it. Average odds are far less volatile as highest odds.

      Regarding your other question… At the end of the course there are a few suggestions (examples) on how to pick value bets, and I have purposely included a few contradicting examples to make the statement that “many roads lead to Rome”. Unfortunately, there is no right or wrong which applies to every league in this world and to every bettor in each country. A blue pause simply doesn’t exist. Sorry!

      Once you have carried out the exercises at the end, then apply all your knowledge gained in the course and experiment (on paper, of course) with other options to pick value. It’s not easy, I know, but I’m sure that you will finally utilise your knowledge about odds calculation and the bookmaker market and work something out that works for you.

  26. Vlad
    18 November 2017 at 6:12 pm #

    Hello. I bought the book a couple of months ago, went over it, did all the exercises. First of all I should say that I had some small prior experience with statistics but I knew very little about excel. The book is very interesting and as far as I was concerned it is not a hard read, and English is not my first language. After finishing the book I created a small version of a value calculator just for overs and unders as well as working with cluster tables and started testing.

    I soon found out that back-testing would be hard for me because I have very limited access to bookmakers and have to rely on the exchange. That is why I am just writing now, because I needed some time to have at least a reasonable number of matches to form an opinion. My results so far are very interesting. I work with two probability clusters for the value calculator picks as well as using the ratio mentioned in the book for selection purposes.

    The first probability cluster is >75, of course if there is value in the bet. As you can imagine the strike rate is high, losing streaks low and bank has shown consistent growth with 150 bets so far. The second cluster is >50<70 probability. Here the results have been less consistent, but still profitable after 117 bets. I should say I am using very very small stakes. It does take time, I am building my own database for results and head-to-head data for every championship that I get involved in. I also keep track of every bet I make including probabilities, final results, true odds, and exchange odds so that I can later try to identify ways to improve the selection process.

    Using the clusters I do not have enough to form an opinion yet but the seem really promising. All in all the book is worth the money in my opinion. I look forward to the new book concerning 1 X 2 betting, if you actually have time to finish it.

    I had one question. So far I just went for set and forget type of bets so no trading in play. What we calculate are true odds before the game starts. If i wait in-play for the odds on the 1.5 market, for example, to reach a point where they were value at the start of the game, is that bet viable?

    Thank you very much for all your materials, I found them all very informative. Good luck with your future content and all the best.

    • Soccerwidow
      22 November 2017 at 7:36 am #

      Hi Vlad,

      the odds in-play will go up to the expected odds; the problem is that there may be a goal the very first minute and you may not get your match. However, what you may consider, as you are interested in trading, is, to carry out the calculations one week (or at least a few days) before kick-off and then watch the odds moving in the direction of the calculated odds ranges within the last few hours before the match starts.

      Sometimes they reach the calculated range before kick-off but quite often they will only move by a few ticks. However, they will still move in the expected direction. Have a look at this.

      Coincidentally, I have just written an article on this topic. Unfortunately for Soccerwidow readers, it’s in German: Tipp für Trading: So werden Trades Smarter Simply run an auto translation over it. It should be understandable; I tried to write in as short sentences as possible.

      With the 1×2 book English readers will have to wait a little longer. As my mother tongue and education is German, I feel much more comfortable writing in German. Sorry! The Over/Under course is currently undergoing a massive update in German (for example, a large chapter on trading has been added – above article is a part from the update). We’ll see if we get anywhere with crowdfunding to get the book in the book shops and, if the book sells well, then there will be an English translation following.

      I truly hope that I will find the time to write the long promised book on 1×2 betting next year!

  27. Vlad Balanescu
    22 November 2017 at 4:23 pm #

    Hello. Thank you for the reply. I imagine that the work that goes into the books and articles is considerable so if it happens, great, if not…that’s life.

    I read the article and using auto translate and got the basic facts and seems interesting I will be testing this out over the next couple of weeks on the exchange. If it works (of course not every time but consistently) it could be a great tool for pre-match trading either to get a few free ticks or create free bets, either option seems very interesting.

    I hope you find the time to translate the update for the Over/Under course to English. I think that the course is very good and would really like to see more of it.

    Good luck with everything.

  28. Sarkec
    23 November 2017 at 10:05 am #

    Hi,

    I backtested this strategy for the last seasons of EPL and Bundesliga 1, but both returned -EV, EPL – 90 EURO with 10 euro stakes and Bundesliga -10 euro with 10 stakes.
    A total 139 bets were made, where I found value based on the calculated fair odds and the best odds available at the market for that match.

    Do you have the results for the last seasons of EPL and Bundesliga 1 ? Am I doing something wrong?

    • Soccerwidow
      23 November 2017 at 10:43 am #

      Hi Sarkec,

      no, you are not doing anything wrong. The only thing I would suggest is to leave the EPL alone. They don’t play as nicely ‘statistically correct’ as the Germans.

      The main problem with betting is that even if you consistently bet with a mathematical advantage on your site, the result distribution is random. That means that everybody will be experiencing different P/L curves if they don’t chose exactly incidentally the same bets.

      I’ve had a similar question to yours on another article and as reply I produced a P/L simulation. Just have a look at this: http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/simple-steps-win-over-under-betting/#comment-19567

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