Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics

Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!

Cartoon: Blindfolded people walk precariously close to the edge of a cliffRemember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.

Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)

It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.

The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!

This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.

What Do You Get For The Money?

The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.

To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.

All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!

In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.

Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals


Fundamentals of Sports Betting - book cover
  • Format: PDF & XLS
  • Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
  • Pages: 169 (almost 38,000 words)
  • Tables and graphs: 70
  • Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Only £59.00*

* 0% VAT to UK customers, 0% VAT to Non-EU customers     Read more: EU VAT Legislation    

>>> read an excerpt from the book <<<

PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing

For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.

Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.

The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.

Contents at a Glance

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability

Basic Statistical Terminology

  • Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
  • Deviation from the Mean
  • Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
  • Precision, Trueness and Accuracy

Betting Odds Calculation

  • Probability and Betting Odds
  • Opening Betting Odds Range
  • Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds

Risk Management Control

  • Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
  • Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
  • Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank

Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy

Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Market Dynamics

  • Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
  • Falling Odds represent Price Increase
  • Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions

Building of Cluster Groups

  • What are Cluster Groups?
  • Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team

Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

  • Goal Distribution by Team
  • Team Calculation Tables
  • Standard Deviation Tables
  • Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds

Finding Value Bets

  • Everything that Glitters is not Gold
  • Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
  • Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
  • Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification

>>> frequently asked questions <<<

…or ask any questions in the comment section below.

Last Update: 20 November 2016

Categories:Money Management Odds Calculation S T O R E Value Betting Academy

56 Responses to “Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics”

  1. Sarkec
    23 November 2017 at 10:05 am #


    I backtested this strategy for the last seasons of EPL and Bundesliga 1, but both returned -EV, EPL – 90 EURO with 10 euro stakes and Bundesliga -10 euro with 10 stakes.
    A total 139 bets were made, where I found value based on the calculated fair odds and the best odds available at the market for that match.

    Do you have the results for the last seasons of EPL and Bundesliga 1 ? Am I doing something wrong?

    • Soccerwidow
      23 November 2017 at 10:43 am #

      Hi Sarkec,

      no, you are not doing anything wrong. The only thing I would suggest is to leave the EPL alone. They don’t play as nicely ‘statistically correct’ as the Germans.

      The main problem with betting is that even if you consistently bet with a mathematical advantage on your site, the result distribution is random. That means that everybody will be experiencing different P/L curves if they don’t chose exactly incidentally the same bets.

      I’ve had a similar question to yours on another article and as reply I produced a P/L simulation. Just have a look at this: http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/simple-steps-win-over-under-betting/#comment-19567

  2. Vlad Balanescu
    22 November 2017 at 4:23 pm #

    Hello. Thank you for the reply. I imagine that the work that goes into the books and articles is considerable so if it happens, great, if not…that’s life.

    I read the article and using auto translate and got the basic facts and seems interesting I will be testing this out over the next couple of weeks on the exchange. If it works (of course not every time but consistently) it could be a great tool for pre-match trading either to get a few free ticks or create free bets, either option seems very interesting.

    I hope you find the time to translate the update for the Over/Under course to English. I think that the course is very good and would really like to see more of it.

    Good luck with everything.

  3. Vlad
    18 November 2017 at 6:12 pm #

    Hello. I bought the book a couple of months ago, went over it, did all the exercises. First of all I should say that I had some small prior experience with statistics but I knew very little about excel. The book is very interesting and as far as I was concerned it is not a hard read, and English is not my first language. After finishing the book I created a small version of a value calculator just for overs and unders as well as working with cluster tables and started testing.

    I soon found out that back-testing would be hard for me because I have very limited access to bookmakers and have to rely on the exchange. That is why I am just writing now, because I needed some time to have at least a reasonable number of matches to form an opinion. My results so far are very interesting. I work with two probability clusters for the value calculator picks as well as using the ratio mentioned in the book for selection purposes.

    The first probability cluster is >75, of course if there is value in the bet. As you can imagine the strike rate is high, losing streaks low and bank has shown consistent growth with 150 bets so far. The second cluster is >50<70 probability. Here the results have been less consistent, but still profitable after 117 bets. I should say I am using very very small stakes. It does take time, I am building my own database for results and head-to-head data for every championship that I get involved in. I also keep track of every bet I make including probabilities, final results, true odds, and exchange odds so that I can later try to identify ways to improve the selection process.

    Using the clusters I do not have enough to form an opinion yet but the seem really promising. All in all the book is worth the money in my opinion. I look forward to the new book concerning 1 X 2 betting, if you actually have time to finish it.

    I had one question. So far I just went for set and forget type of bets so no trading in play. What we calculate are true odds before the game starts. If i wait in-play for the odds on the 1.5 market, for example, to reach a point where they were value at the start of the game, is that bet viable?

    Thank you very much for all your materials, I found them all very informative. Good luck with your future content and all the best.

    • Soccerwidow
      22 November 2017 at 7:36 am #

      Hi Vlad,

      the odds in-play will go up to the expected odds; the problem is that there may be a goal the very first minute and you may not get your match. However, what you may consider, as you are interested in trading, is, to carry out the calculations one week (or at least a few days) before kick-off and then watch the odds moving in the direction of the calculated odds ranges within the last few hours before the match starts.

      Sometimes they reach the calculated range before kick-off but quite often they will only move by a few ticks. However, they will still move in the expected direction. Have a look at this.

      Coincidentally, I have just written an article on this topic. Unfortunately for Soccerwidow readers, it’s in German: Tipp für Trading: So werden Trades Smarter Simply run an auto translation over it. It should be understandable; I tried to write in as short sentences as possible.

      With the 1×2 book English readers will have to wait a little longer. As my mother tongue and education is German, I feel much more comfortable writing in German. Sorry! The Over/Under course is currently undergoing a massive update in German (for example, a large chapter on trading has been added – above article is a part from the update). We’ll see if we get anywhere with crowdfunding to get the book in the book shops and, if the book sells well, then there will be an English translation following.

      I truly hope that I will find the time to write the long promised book on 1×2 betting next year!

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