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True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History


In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector


League Games
with H2H History


Price: £29.90
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Price: £19.90
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:




Supporting Videos

Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.

Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.

Frequently asked questions:

Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

Exactly which historical records do I have to input?

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

What knowledge is required?

You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.


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Last Update: 29 August 2012

Categories:Odds Calculation S T O R E



273 Responses to “True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History”

  1. Audiendi
    9 March 2018 at 3:06 pm #

    Cheers Soccerwidow.

    That makes sense. Just to confirm, do you look at cup games in the H2H?

    For example, so far I’ve included (in the H2H) games from the DFB-Pokal when looking at teams in the Bundesliga. And the Coppa Italia for H2H in the Serie A.

    • Soccerwidow
      9 March 2018 at 7:02 pm #

      Hi Audiendi,

      cup games are not league games and the games are played with a different motivation than league games. In addition, the finals are not played on the home grounds of any of the teams. It’s all about consistency and comparable data.

      • Audiendi
        10 March 2018 at 9:07 am #

        Hi Soccerwidow,

        Sorry about the confusion. So are you saying you’d exclude cup games (at that specific venue) from the H2H? I agree with you that there might be different motivations.

        In the article above it says

        ‘…Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).’

        I took that to mean that one should include cup games between the two sides at that specific venue for the H2H data. But you don’t include them?

        Kind regards,

        Audiendi

        • Soccerwidow
          10 March 2018 at 9:25 am #

          Hi Audiendi,

          if you have 6 H2H’s for the last 10 years (league only), then don’t use the cup games. If you have only 5 H2H’s then add a cup game to get 6. Make sure that you don’t have more cup games than league games in your correction factor.

          Six is already a very low number to draw any reliable conclusions from. However, you’re currently working through the course and you should be by now aware how challenging it is with only little data available to predict ‘accurately’ what the future will bring.

          • Audiendi
            13 March 2018 at 9:49 am #

            Hi Soccerwidow,

            Cheers that makes perfect sense.

            I’ve effectively finished the course. And I’m most grateful to you for your guidance. Last week I paper tested the Value Calculator with 22 bets. The average statistical probability (according to the Value Calculator) was 82%. Out of the 22 bets, 19 were hits. That’s about an 86% hit rate (from a very small sample space).

            I think I’m starting to understand what you mean, from a statistical/mathematical viewpoint, with the idea that there’s simply too little data to predict outcomes with enough accuracy.

            If I may be so bold, my inference was that across 500+ bets per season, there should be a broad statistical trend which is hopefully reasonably accurate.

            So we can’t say how accurate the prediction for any given match will be. But we can have a degree of confidence that a certain proportion of matches will go as predicted (give or take standard deviation). So in other words, maybe about 400 out of 500 matches will end up with a particular characteristic (e.g. Over X goals). We don’t know which 400 matches. But we know about 400 matches.

            It’s all about surfing that wave of distribution.

            If I’ve misunderstood anything, feel free to shout me down.

            Kind regards,

            Audiendi

          • Soccerwidow
            13 March 2018 at 10:33 am #

            Brilliant! You’ve got it!!! 🙂

  2. Audiendi
    8 March 2018 at 9:24 am #

    Hey Guys,

    Just wondering, with the H2H minimum history, can we include matches between the two sides when they were in a lower division?

    E.g. I’m having a look at Roda JC vs Sparta Rotterdam. If one were only to include H2H matches from the Eredivisie, then there are only three such matches (with Roda at home) in the past ten years. However, in that period, there has also been one KNVB Cup match and two matches when the two were in Eerste Divisie. That takes it up to six.

    As I understand it, the last 25 home and last 25 away matches of the respective teams requirement is only met if all those 50 of those matches are in the same league. But that’s not the case for H2H is it?

    Kind regards,

    Audiendi

    • Soccerwidow
      8 March 2018 at 10:20 am #

      Hi Audiendi, sorry, but you have to compare apples with apples!

      Eredivisie has a totally different quality of contestants than Eerste Divisie, and cup matches are again something totally different.

      Therefore, no. H2H from one league only.

  3. Vlad Balanescu
    21 January 2018 at 5:13 pm #

    Also I wanted to ask, as there seem to be different answers to this in the comments. Should I include cup matches between the sides in the head to head or simply stick to league games?

    • Right Winger
      23 January 2018 at 7:40 pm #

      Hi Vlad,

      Include all competitive games at that same venue during the last 10 calendar years prior to the match date in question. So yes, this includes cup games.

      As an aside, as EPL side Tottenham are playing their home games at Wembley this season, it is probably wise not to analyse any of their home matches as to do so would be comparing apples with pears. You’ll need to be aware of things like this when deciding which games to analyse.

      I hope this helps!

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