In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the **German Betfair blog** we are pleased to present our * league match with head-to-head history* ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

Our bet selections are always based on **true odds calculations** identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, **not every bet can win**, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

**‘VALUE’ bet detector:** The **Excel spreadsheet** calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game **Liverpool v. Manchester City** on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:

- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions

### Supporting Videos

Data Sourcing: **Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk** to make your own Excel store of statistics.

Data Input: **Historical match results and head-to-head data input** to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.

### Frequently asked questions:

**Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues? **

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

**How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?**

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

**Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?**

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

**Exactly which historical records do I have to input?**

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

**What knowledge is required?**

You should already have a **understanding of odds and how they are calculated**. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.

Hi Soccerwidow

I just want to give you a little feedback…

In 3 weeks I have completed 68 bets. My bankroll management hasn’t been perfect but it’s work in progress

Week 1

10 Bets

Bet £352

Returned £135.98 (Profit)

Yield 38.60%

Week 2

24 Bets

Bet £1,232.75

Returned -£54.34 (Loss)

Yield -4.41%

Week 3

34 Bets

Bet £4,612.75

Returned £1,039.73 (Profit)

OVERALL

68 Bets

Bet £6,197.78

Returned £1,121.37 (Profit)

Yield 18.09%

Week 2 loss was mainly down to one match that I messed up on, I shouldn’t have bet 4 different markets in one match that the result affected all 4 markets, I learnt from that. I had lots of time in week 3 and was able to study and find lots of value bets.

One other thing I have learnt from looking over my results is this:

If I highlight 10 bets and take the average percentage of true odds they usually fall between 70% & 80%, When I look to the right to see my win/loss rate more often than not match up. E.G when the average is 80% I lost 2 bets out of 10, and when its 70% I lost 3 bets out of the 10, this to me is unbelievable and confirms that everything you taught is working perfectly. I can do it with any 10 bets and the win/loss ratio is always in line with the average percentage.

One silly thing I found myself doing is trading out, I’ve only done it two or three times and im learning to control myself. Below is an example of one

Palermo v Chievo (Sunday 30th Sept)

True Odds Pointed to Goals, lots of Goals, Betfair market said complete opposite.

First Half Goals O 1.5

True Odds 1.53 – 64%

Betfair Odds 3.35

Over 1.5

True Odds 1.10 – 91%

Betfair Odds 1.42

Over 2.5

True Odds 1.43 – 69.90%

Betfair Odds 2.14

Over 3.5

True Odds 1.90 – 53.70%

Betfair Odds 3.77

My bank had grown so much I was experimenting with ways to bet. I was risking double the percentage, so 64% I backed £128 – 91% I backed £182 – 69.90% I Backed £139.80 & the 53.70% I backed £105.40.

If all bets won I stood to be up approx £874, however as I risked so much and the odds were so far apart I decided to trade out after the first goal and too profit totalling £243 over the markets, As the goals started pooring in I seen why I shouldnt have traded out as indeed the score was 4-1 and I would of been laughing considering it was the first match of the day. Anyway lesson Learnt.

I just wanted to say how great it is having this knowledge, I have been able to fix the sheet so I can price a match up within 5 minutes and after studying I can markets priced and bets placed within 8-10 minutes.

Thank-you and If you would like me to Ill happily keep you informed of my progress in the coming weeks, months, years…

Regards my bet amounts, I’m just experimenting. I started off with Level stakes as you say and the profit was steady, not going down much when I lost, By betting the percentage I notice a few swings but so far its not been risky, I backdated it through all the bets and during week 2 i entered minus profit before my graph exploded in an upward trend, I am keeping track of what is the most profitable and thus far backing say £69 on a 69% true odds is working great, my bank grew and at the minute im backing double the percentages, so for a 70% chance im backing or laying with a liabilty of £140.

Your a genius Soccerwidow..

Here my graph: Graph-2012.10-irelansfav.jpg

Week 2 is the downward slump, I recognized my mistakes and continue to work on them 😉

Hi, mate. First of all, amaing progress with your bankroll.

I was just wondering how did you fix the sheet so you can get all the needed data into it in 5 minutes? If you don’t mind me asking.

Hi lorenzo, there is no fix to the sheet.

What we have is the data of all leagues on the computer, sorted by years and teams. When we wish to analyse a certain match, we simply open the datasheets and then copy and paste the data into the spreadsheet. The H2H results we copy and paste from Betexplorer.

With a little practice this whole manual action only takes 5 minutes per match.

We tried macros, and various other automatizations. However, the main problem is that for this to work the row data has to be standardized, meaning to be in the same format for each league. Unfortunately, there are leagues who have 17 teams, others more, others less. Some leagues don’t play equal numbers of matches home and away, etc.

In the end we found it much faster to get the data manually into our spreadsheet than trying to stay ahead of the ever changing data.

Hello Soccerwidow!

Have two questions about spreadsheet:

1. Two teams are playing second season in Serie A but before they were both playing in Serie B. I can’t count 25 games just from Serie A matches and also I can’t count 6 H2H matches just from the time they were playing in Serie A. Ofcourse I can count the needed number if I take Serie B games. Is these kind of matches suitable for analytic?

2. If teams were playing a cup or play off game in neutral place are they suitable?

The more mixed an analysis (such as teams playing in Serie A and B) the more inaccurate the results of calculations. Just be aware of this. Do a lot of paper exercising before committing any money.

For H2H comparison you use everything – Serie A, Serie B, cup games, etc. – but not neutral grounds. In league matches is always a home game for one team, and an away game for the other team. Neutral grounds are away games for both teams.

What happens if the H2H form is say 0-5-5, for example? What do we do with the 0 figure? Also, what do you do with H2H with less than 6 games? Does this simply mean it is not suitable for analysis or can you use the H/A quotient to find the 10 closest fits?

Please explain what you mean exactly with H2H form 0-5-5?

If you have a match with less than 6 H2H then yes, you can use the H/A quotient to find the 10 closest fits.

However be very careful, especially if the teams have played in different leagues the previous season(s). In such cases, it’s possibly better simply to omit betting. At least lots of paper exercises are required before you feel confident to put money on those matches.

Thanks. Sorry I meant if one of the results in the H2H is equal to 0 i.e. team a has never beaten team b. By 0-5-5 i meant 0 home wins, 5 draws and 5 away, for example. This means a zero value will go into the spreadsheet and will skew the results. What do you do in this situation?

It will not really skew the results.

If there were, for example, 0 home wins, then this means that in 0% of the H2H matches the home team won. Say, the team comparison comes up with 20% home wins, then (20%+0%)/2=10%, meaning that the chance for a home win is pretty low, but not Zero.

In case, there are 2 times 0%, then the calculations will come up with a #DIV/0!. This means that this outcome will have odds of 100 and above. Please note that the spreadsheet is not developed for high odds like this as the calculations are based on very little data only.

With teams such as Manchester City, which have changed significantly in stature over the last years, would it generally be more prudent to simply leave out old results or avoid bets alltogether?

Unfortunately, there is no straight answer to your question, except of that you must never bet if you are not totally convinced that it is a good bet. By saying “being convinced” I do not mean that one has a positive gut feeling about a bet, but that it is a mathematically sound bet, fitting in the portfolio, etc..

If a team has changed significantly in stature over the last years, and therefore you don’t trust calculations which are taking H2H results into account, then yes, leave it. There are plenty of other matches to look at.

I just bought the spreadsheet with H2H to test this value betting approach. I remember seeing one of your videos where you input odds-data on all past matches and then look at the last ten matches with similar ratings of (homewin-odds/awaywin-odds). Was is the reason that this calculation is left out in this spreadsheet? Og maybe I just didn’t look at the right place 🙂

You probably remember the video for international club competitions.

The spreadsheet for

league games with H2H historydoes not require 10 matches with similar ratings as there is H2H data available. However, when calculating international matches then there are normally no H2H’s, or rarely very few. In order to calculate these matches accurately the spreadsheet uses the last ten matches against competitors with similar strength.I just bought the spreadsheet as well yesterday and I must say it makes it much easier for a beginner like me. Altough I’m am learning your true odds course also and want to understand everything myself.

But there must be an easier way to enter data into the spreadsheet, rather than manually enter it for every match. I wanted to try it by clicking Data -> Get external data -> From web, but the button is unactive.

Do you know how could I change it active or any other way to make entering data to the spreadsheet a bit easier?

Thanks in advance,

You will have to amend the spreadsheet to accommodate your personal needs. People who buy the spreadsheet do it for different reasons, meaning that everybody has singular needs. Unfortunately, we cannot provide a technical solution for each individual approach.

Hi Lorenzo,

let me give You a suggestion regarding on how You can easily sort the data from a historical results spreadsheet found for example at football-data. co.uk:

First you have to select the columns containing date, home team, away team , fulltime result and half time result. Once these columns selected, you can easily sort them by home team and the name of the team/ or away team adn name of team. Excel will then automatically arrange the results by specified sorting criteria. All that is left to do then is as simple as copy and paste the data into soccerwidows home and away tabs.

How can you sort selected columns in a spreadsheet to match specified criteria? Its simple: first select columns, then go to ‘Data’ , then ‘Sort’. Excel will then open a dialog box containing 3 drop-down boxes. In the first you select for instance ‘Home Team’ and in the third you select ‘Custom List’ where you will Add a team’s name. Press Ok and Excel will automatically arrange the results of the Home Teams with specified names.

So the entire operation doesn’t last more then 1 minute.

I hope I was able to help you.

Yep! Thank you very much, Jesse. Way easier to do it now.

And Soccerwidow, thank you even more for that amazing site and work you have done to help other punters to learn that valuable stuff here. Only in these last few days I have learned so much. I have a whole different view on betting now and it’s all thanks to you 😉 Of course it takes way more time than a few days to learn, but it’s a start and I keep reading your blog and öearn from you. So thanks again 🙂

One more question, though.

If I take odds from Betfair. Let’s say for the Arsenal – Tottenham game in the coming weekend. The backing odds are: Arsenal (2,00) Tottenham (4,00) and Draw (3,85). Now I enter these odds into the spreadsheet and by the looks of it laying Tottenham is pretty good value.

But laying odds in the betfair are a bit different (laying Tottetnham would be 4,2).

I know I should probably just put the lay odds in the spreadsheet if I want to find value on lay bets, and backing odds when I want to find value in back bets, but I have read and studied the course and spreadsheets so much the last few days that my brain is overheating and i’m getting confused 😀

Excellent, lorenzo. You answered your own question correctly. 😀

And another one:

There are Under 0,5 and Under 1,5 and Under 2,5 goals etc rows, but no Over ‘X’ goals … how can I find out Over’s value and win probability etc.?

Scroll a little to the right. Same rows as Under 0,5, Under 1,5 and Under 2,5 goals, etc.

I must be blind, but there is no Overs in my spreadsheet (except the halftime O 1.5). I put it in the search engine and all … did scroll a little right from Unders rows, still nothing :S

The over bets are the opposite of the under bets. This means that you are looking at

rows 32 to 38.Column O – calculates the ‘true’ odds

Column P – you need to input the current prices (odds) for the respective market for the under bets

Colum Z – automatically calculates the ‘true’ odds

Column Z – calculates the corresponding odds for over bets (of course, it will only work, if you have put in the current market prices for the under bets in column P)

Column AA – calculates the value

Hope this helps 🙂

Okay.

But I don’t understand how the columns P to X work in Under/Over rows (32 to 38)

Here is an example: Fulham – Sunderland this weekend.

I enter U 1.5 odds from Betfair (4,20) into column P. True odds in column O are 2,78. So it would have to be a good value. But when I write ‘back’ in column R it will show -33,9% value in column X. It also shows Win probability: Betfair 76,2% , Real 64%. Doesn’t make sense at all for me.

Should be good value and bigger Real winning probability compaired to the betfair winning probability, when actual odds are bigger than zero odds.

And where does it show the probability of winning for the overs then?

Please email your spreadsheet over to me.

Also, what’s that column S? I understand it sometimes automatically puts ‘back’ or ‘lay’ there, but on what criterias?

And is it normal that there is Lay in column S for Homewin, but the correct score the spreadsheets predicts is actually 2-1 Homewin?

I hope you understand what I mean 😀

(1) The formulas are not hidden so you can see the criterias. This is our personal strategy to pick the bets for our articles. Feel free to change the formulas suiting your personal strategy.

(2) Yes, this happens. For example, the correct score prediction may be 2-1, and the probability for the home team to win calculates, say, to 60%. Imagine the market offers a price for the home team which translates to 70%. This is a lay-value-bet despite the home team having pretty good chances to win the match because in approx. 40% of the cases they will not win, and therefore one can expect a long-term profit.

were to get good h2h stats that i can copy and paste quicky?

Betexplorer

You need to highlight and copy the whole H2H table, including header and the summary stats rows at the bottom. Then it works without a hitch. If you try to copy only a part of the table you’ll get the data into one cell in Excel, and this is not really helpful.

this does not give hta or hth figure so it useless. i need a copy and paste solution as this is taking around 2 hours for 1 game which is no good.

also what is the password. i am getting angry with this. it is not letting me add any away data without a damn password

Betexplorer is a copy & paste solution. For the HT results click on ‘details’ of the matches. However, the HT figures need to be entered manually.

With some practice, this whole exercise takes 5 minutes max.

Very rarely Betexplorer may not have all HT results. Another good source is Soccerbase.com. Unfortunately, although this site has more stats, it’s not as easy to use as Betexplorer.

We use these spreadsheets ourselves, and data collection is done within 10-15 minutes.

I find the best solution is, if You type into google “h2h statistics” -> the 3rd result will be the h2h statistics page from wettpoint.

Access the site and type the names of the teams to get the h2h stats. Wettpoint will display them neatly ordered by date, competition Fulltime and Halftime results alltogether.

Info obtained by cuortesy of Soccerwidow.

Thank you very much for answering every question so thoroughly, Soccerwidow.

I have a whole new view on betting now after reading your blog/site.

And I think I have asked most of the questions I have had in my mind and can now start focus on picking out some good value bets 😀

Just checking in lol

Hope your well, Took me some weeks but I THINK im back on track. Have gathered lots and lots of data and after sifting through all of it piece by piece I have a couple of value strategies that I have been following.

In 4 weeks iv had a ROI of 25%. It hasnt been plain sailing, before I was able to get my data I was betting blindly on value bets I simply picked myself across different markets, I never made any decent returns until the eureka moment finally came.

Im sending you a picture of a graph that covers the last 4 weeks for me. Tell me, is this to be expected? is this normal and is it viable to continue like this? Because that excites me…

Any value bets that fit the system are bet like this. Over 52% winning chance is backed or layed with liability of £100, any bet in the system below 52% gets backed or layed with a liabilty of £50. So with bets of £50 & £100 I have a profit of £2,710 from an investment of £10,500 over 117 bets giving me yield of 25.8%.

Can I expect this to continue? Is the graph normal? I only ask as there isnt much fluctuation, its a graph that makes my hairs stand up but I can assure you, it is a true representation of the strategy ive been covering lately.

Your graph looks good – typical of a sound value betting system!

25.8% is a fantastic return but I would like to see 500 bets performed before suggesting you are on to a winner.

Without knowing exactly what your strategy is I can’t really provide any firm comments, but am happy we’ve helped expand your thinking about ‘value’ betting.

I would also suggest that you maintain the current staking plan until the end of the season before you consider any form of proportional increase (ratchet). We have experienced very similar curves to yours and then seen a drastic dip in fortunes, so the great start you’ve had is by no means a guarantee of continued success.

You sound happy though and I am pleased for you!

This is perhaps an open question to everyone. How do you select which of the bets highlighted by the spreadsheet that you consider to be “valuable”? Do you bet on all where ‘value II’ is positive, regardless of win probability? Does anyone have any “minimum” levels?

Asecond question, possibly directed more at soccerwidow. I find the spreadsheet generating a far larger number of lay bets than it does back bets. Is this normal?

The formulas in cells O18 to O20 are highlighting the lays and backs according to our personal selection criteria which we were using for the match previews (German Betfair Blog). Have a good look at the formula. It’s picking the minimum or maximum, and then comparing the averages of the calculations, and making a choice.

We do not bet on every game. This is our personal strategy when selecting bets, but there are millions of other strategies. Everybody has his or her own.

You need to change/adjust the formulas in O18 to O20 according to your personal selection criteria, e.g. choosing the matches with the highest value to back or lay. The cells are not protected, and you can change the formula in whatever formula you prefer to use.

Good day Soccerwidow,

I hope I find you and the other half well, hoping you had a wonderful Christmas & new year.

I did say I would hold off from bothering you until Feb. Well as were nearly there I thought I would jump the gun & keep you up to date on where I’m at… I’ve again copied a list of my bets, all strategies mixed together to forge nearly 500 bets. (You did say to come back when I have 500 bets) –

see chartYou will notice my strike rate is in perfect line with the True Odds Predicted rate. After nearly 500 bets I’m amazed at being within 0.09% of the True Odds marker.

My question is related to my hit rate, as you will see overall my strike rate is 86%.. I toyed around with a rate between 65-75% but the more losses where affecting my mindset. In your opinion what strike rate should I be looking for, I had in my head 67% for some reason and tried to attain that with certain markets, although playing U1.5, U4.5 & the CS markets brings up the rate.

It really depends on your personal preferences. As you are saying yourself, the many consecutive losses in the lower clusters (65%) were affecting your mindset. Hence, it seems for you perfect to stick to the 85%+ probability bets.

Hi,

Just bought this a few days ago and I’m enjoying researching the data in order to identify value. However, as I am completely new at sports betting and am only doing this for a bit of fun the time it takes to input data etc. doesn’t matter to me at this stage.

I was showing a friend the spread sheet which I’ve done for Sunderland Vs. Man Utd. this Saturday and I had inputted the wrong odds for ‘both teams to score’ Yes. The true odds are Yes 2.52 and I had entered 11 rather than 1.91. With the odds at 11 Value I is 557.5% but there is no value II and no recommendation to back, which I don’t understand. I can only assume that the probability of both teams to score is so low that even with the fantastic odds it’s not a worthwhile proposition?

Is this the case?

Hi Wingnuts, please have a very close look at cells S28+S29 which contain the formulas.

The formulas are set that it has to be the minimum of these 2 values, and then the market odds have to be lower than the calculated average odds from the last 25 matches, and also from the H2H.

However, please note that the automated formulas are only meant as examples. They should be changed and adjusted to suit your own strategies, preferences and needs. For example, you may prefer backing to laying, or feel more comfortable to bet within a certain odds zone or maintain specific probability clusters.

Hey Soccerwidow I want to ask you something.If I buy this I will get only the excel page? And if I select a match I have to enter manually all the datas of the last 30 games of the each team and H2H games?

Hey Soccerwidow I have some questions.I decided to buy the League Game True Odds & Value Detector but I still have some questions.The pack contains only the excel page with formulas? And if I want to select a soccer match what dada’s I need to obtain about teams? I need to get the 30 last matches from every team and enter them manually? Same with H2H? I really appreciate your job!

Hi Sergiu,

yes, it is correct that you will have manually to insert the results for the last 25 matches as well as for the H2H. However, of course, there are short cuts which will limit the necessary time.

Actually, I’m planning to produce a video for this task over Easter.

Thanks for the fast reply Soccerwidow and thanks for the answer.I have another question.The video will be free or you will have to pay for it? PS:Sorry for the double post.

For purchasers of the true odds calculator explanatory videos on how to use the spreadsheet will be definitely free.

Hello

Im new to the site but impressed so far, however I am wondering why the difference in methodology between this excel sheet (25 home/away results plus h2h) and the one used to calculate in your betting course (using multiple year data with clustering). Wont they give different results? Is one more accurate than the other?

Hi PMan,

Using the last 25 matches plus H2H for league games is a kind of “back-of-the-envelope calculation”, taking from the huge assortment of matches available (such as cup games, internationals, matches without H2H history, matches between teams having not played in the same league, etc.) only the partial subset of

league matches with H2H history.Once odds calculation is understood using 5 years of data with clustering, then simplifications emerge. In order to predict quite accurate distributions for a particular sample it is not always necessary to carry out the whole set of exhaustive calculations. The value calculator is such an example.

Hope this makes sense.

Hi,

I’ve been using this spreadsheet for a while, but I still don’t have a sample size big enough (of 100 or + bets) to talk about results, as almost all european domestic leagues are approaching the end of the season this is going to wait until next season.

Anyway, my question is what is the reason behind choosing the latest 25 matches instead of, let’s say, 38 which would mean the latest 2 entire seasons of a team playing at home or away?.

Does choosing the latest 25 provide any significant edge over a bigger sample size?. For example in Italy’s Serie A, comparing the odds offered in most bookmakers from the ‘true’ odds calculated using this method they tend to differ a lot, favorites are “favorited way too much” clearly underpriced, and underdogs are overpriced. Seems like bookmakers pay more attention to recent form (latest 6 or 8 games) than the latest 25, 38, or x number of games from a certain team. So I keep asking myself everyday what is more important, past statistics or recent form?.

The reason why I chose 25 matches instead of 38 is to give more weight to the recent matches. For example, at the start of a season if you are considering 38 matches, you are considering the last 2 seasons with a 50/50 weight. After the new season is halfway through, you will be still giving the season 2 years ago 30% weight, and so on.

However, in some circumstances, e.g. when teams have not been playing in the same league an approach of using more seasons for the calculation of odds may produce more reliable results that the last 25 matches only.

What we are looking at in this particular spreadsheet are the matches between teams in the same league, and with H2H history.

Regarding your other question:

For example in Italy’s Serie A, comparing the odds offered in most bookmakers from the ‘true’ odds calculated using this method they tend to differ a lot, favorites are “favorited way too much” clearly underpriced, and underdogs are overpriced.Please see following article:How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?Answering your last questions: Past statistics are definitely more important than recent form! Recent form is statistically not significant for the big picture. Just think about bookmakers publishing their odds often 3-4 weeks prior to a match. How would they possibly be able to foretell the “recent form” on the day of the match? If there are adjustments prior to a match then it’s taking public opinion into account in order to balance their books and increase market shares, certainly not recent form. “Recent form” is very subjective and very much influenced by the media.

Of course, if one could use statistics telling you how much a certain player has been influencing a game, and how much effect him missing a game had on the observed results, you would perhaps be able to calculate these probabilities… Unfortunately, I do not think this is possible. Not enough data available, and also unreliable.

hello,

how does your sheet work with asian handicaps, can it find any value in that market?

really interesting, but lenght of the procedure remains an issue though, not all of us are that skillfull in manipulating excel sheets! 🙂

best

And one more – can I use this sheet to calculate FT odds only, does the HT data influence calculated FT odds in any way?

Best and thanks

The HT data does not influence the FT odds, but the H2H meetings do.

Excellent!

Do you keep stats of sheet’s asian handicaps winning rate?

I took the sheet and must say it does make very much sense!

Best

Yes, we keep stats. I’m in the process of publishing them.

Ok…

So, imagining that we are speaking about Italy Serie A:

The inputs are:

Home team: 25 last results playing at Home “on Italy Serie A Games”

Away team: 25 last results playing Away “on Italy Serie A Games”

H2H: Home team at Home vs Away Team Away – “on Italy Serie A Games”

My doubt is… if I’m planning to bet on an Italy Serie A game, I need to consider only past results played at this competition?

Other games played Home, Away or H2H at other cups shouldn’t be considered?

Thanks for the support,

Fabio

Hey SoccerWidow

I’ve just bought this spreadsheet and i think it’s amazing. I deal with excel myself, but its kinda complicated. There are so many formulas (Actually, i think its fantastic, but I cant understand everything).

Do you think about launch a PDF or something to explain in detail this spreadsheet? I’ve watched the video, but i’m not an English speaker myself. I understand a lot in there, but I miss some valuable points. A PDF or some tutorial will be great.

Thanks again!

Hi Alex, I’m happy to hear that you love the spreadsheet. There is an update on the way which will identify even more accurate picks, and also a manual and tutorial. We will inform all buyers as soon as it’s ready… However, unfortunatelly this project is on ice at the moment as I had a quite serious horse riding accident end of April which completely took me out since; I spend two weeks in intensive care in hospital followed by many weeks with a clowded mind at home. Luckily I’m getting better every day, but it will take time until I’m back to full strength again and able to adjust formulas in spreadsheets, prepare them for sale and write explanatory articles and tutorials.

So sad to hear about your accident… hope you get better soon!

About the spreadsheet, it is amazing. It does all the math needed to find good value bets (not only value bets, but value bets with high chance to occur). Looking foward for the update and tutorials, especially about the Asian Handicap sheet. Man! there is so many information in there! lol

And one last thing: thanks for the fast reply!

Hi Soccerwidow,

Great news!!! Looking forward to the User Manual and an updated version of the Value Detector. I am using the current version and I think its a great tool to analyse upcoming matches.

I wonder what you have got up your sleeve to improve the current version?

Its easy to use and the information you get out of it is absolutely fantastic!!

I usually copy the data across from http://www.football-data.co.uk, I use the SEARCH function in Excel and copy all the data straight into the Value Detector. For the H2H I use http://www.soccerbase.com – just click on Head-to-Head and select the teams – it couldnt be easier!!

Its easy to use and it does exactly what it says – it helps to find VALUE BETS which is what you want if you want long term profits

I hope you will feel better soon and I cant wait to see your next piece of work!

All the best from Australia!!

I’m really looking forward for this update, I’ve been using this tool for some time and it’s very helpful to have a mathematical edge in addition to own knowledge and perceptions for each game. It would be nice if it could calculate value in the for example 0.25, 0.75, 1.25 etc. asian handicap and goal markets, of course it can be done manually but it could speed up the process.

There’s another very reliable web site for raw data picking called http://www.footballzz.co.uk , it covers some leagues like those from latin america not featured in the other sites.

Hope you get well soon and keep the great work!

I could not leave a reply in your article about over/under guide so i try here instead, i hope thats ok. I am in the beginning om my betting season, using what i learned in your over under tutorial and collected data from 12 leagues around europe (many hours spent). After just 30 bets its looking quite good, i know that i need many more to be sure if my idea works. If all is looking good after a couple of months i am wondering, can i take what i learned from your over/under tutorial and collect data from hockey also. It should not matter if it is fotball or hockey ? i come to the conclusion that if it works for fotball it would be great to be able to let the money work because the hockeygames plays in other timelines.

Statistics always work.. for football, for hockey, for horse racing, for everything.

The only thing that is always necessary is of course a sufficent amount of data and the knowledge how to analyse and use it.

Thanks for your comment and good luck with your betting! 🙂

Hi Soccerwidow

First, can I say your website is superb. I’ve been looking for this kind of material for years and it has helped me immensely with my betting, thank you.

I am trying to work out how i can calculate the true odds for games involving teams that have just been promoted/relegated to a new league.

For example I am currently pricing up the English Championship fixtures for this weekend, and i’m experiencing problems with Yeovil who were promoted last season.

You normally advise using the last 25/30 home/away games and head to heads.

However Yeovil’s last 25/30 games were played in a weaker division so these will be misleading.

Also, Yeovil have never played at Championship level before, so there will be almost no head to head history for any of their opposition this season.

I’m having this problem with many of the promoted/relegated teams throughout the english leagues, Yeovil are just an example.

So how would i go about producing accurate ‘true odds’ for these kind of teams?

Thank you for your help

Hello again Jonathan, and thanks for all your praise (blush!), current, and past support of Soccerwidow.

The problem you describe is one that we try to avoid for the sake of comparing apples with apples.

Any fixtures within a team’s last 25 home or away games which have been played in a lower or higher league than their opposition in the game you are analysing automatically discounts that team from our analysis.

In other words, we do not analyse such teams with the Value Bet Calculator, nor do we include any matches where there are not at least six competitive head-to-head games in the last 10 calendar years at the ground in question.

You have to be consistent with statistics and if they are in any way a miss-match then there is no chance you will obtain a ‘true’ reflection of the odds. You will have to leave Yeovil, Bournemouth and Doncaster out of The Championship reckoning for this season and concentrate only on matches between teams which have remained in the division from last season. The same goes for all the other leagues.

Jonathan, we hope this helps, but by all means ask again should you require clarification on any matter.

Best wishes for the new season.

Thank you for your prompt reply.

I completely understand where you are coming from about why these kind of teams are not included in the Value Bet Calculator, and that a prudent betting portfolio would not contain these games due to the statistical deficiencies.

But purely out of a thirst for knowledge i remain intrigued as to how these teams can be priced up as accurately as possible. After all, the bookmakers are able to do this (before adjusting the odds according to how the market will react).

So i think it’s just a case of me experimenting and seeing what i can come up with. Maybe an interesting place for me to start would be the methods used in Soccerwidow’s international qualifiers and international club competitions spreadsheets, as both try and cater for the lack of head to head history.

Many thanks for your help, and i hope the site continues to go from strength to strength.

The international spreadsheets you mention are certainly a good place to begin making value estimations of these teams, but it takes to garner data and enter odds for each of the historical 25 matches, as well as the results. In addition, the international games are all in the international arena, but you cannot make this comparison between the Championship and the EPL for example – different arenas altogether.

Newcomers are unpredictable without having any comparable data. We answered your question in form of an article: Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable

Hi Soccerwidow,

quick question in regards to the True Odds and Value Detector:

For the H2H comparison of both teams, would you include games played on neutral ground, i.e. domestic cup games for example? Or would you only include games played at the home teams home ground?

I came across this a few times especially in the Scottish Premier League

Hi Julian,

league games with H2H history are either played on the teams home grounds or on the other teams home grounds. Therefore domestic cup games played on neutral ground are not applicable for H2H comparison as it’s for both teams an away game.

Another question which comes up regularly is, if it is wise to include friendlies as well as cup games which are played at the home teams ground, or matches where the away team played on another teams ground.

I have not found any statistical reasons yet why these games should not be included. Their inclusions/exclusions neither make the odds calculation more accurate nor do they increase/descrease observed deviation.

Being a football supporter, my husband feels strongly not to include friendly matches, as they are not competitive games. But we disagree on this point. Me, being a practical and by nature lazy mathematical mind who is speeding up the data collection process by using macros and automated copy and paste functions to fill in the value sreadsheets with data, I dislike time spend to sweep through H2H matches to delete manually friendlies. Especially as I don’t see any mathematical, statistical reason for this.

Hi,

I refer to the the H2H function. I struggle to understand how a match that occurred several seasons ago have an effect on the odds of a match in the present??

Odds calculation is all about expected distributions.

For example, if from 10 matches between two teams in the past, eight games finished with a home win, then this is quite important and needs to be factored into the probabilities for the forthcoming game.

It makes no sense though, how can a result 4 years ago have any influence on odds for a forthcoming game?

In some cases none of the same players will even be playing on either side?

Do you have a more detailed explanation as to why the H2H records are so important as to my mind they should not have any influence?

Thanks

Hi Chris, successful gambling is linked to odds calculation, meaning predicting the probabilities of an event, calculating the expected distribution of results, but not about forecasting correct results with 100% certainty. Foretelling the outcome of a specific match is simply impossible.

You are right, H2H records from games, say 4 years ago, cannot have too much influence for a forthcoming game. However, in statistics we are not talking about “influences” or “stimulus”, or which other terms are common in connection with the wishy-washy discussions about “form” within the betting community.

Strictly speaking, there is nothing such as form which can be analysed statistically. The available data is neither large enough, nor comparable or

interval scaled. So-called “form data” cannot be interpreted arithmetically.It is important to remember that successful betting is all about calculating

expected distributions,coming up with true oddsand identifying value in the prices [odds] in the market.I understand that this pure statistical approach to betting may come accross as being unnerving and it is certainly in conflict with emotions. Therefore, you may wish to check the following article:

Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?. This was one of my first articles as my dear husband used to feel pretty disturbed if teams didn’t finish meeting his gut feelings and expectations.Thank you for your query as it’s something which seem to bother a lot of people, and if time permits I will address this question in greater length via articles, calculations, chart data, tutorials, etc.

Soccerwidow, this calculator (True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History) requires data of at least 6 H2H matches in the last 10 years, I guess those 6 matches (or more) are taken as an “accurate” sample size for it’s calculations (correct me if I’m wrong), but why the last 10 years?

My guess is: to put more weight in recent season performances than seasons played 12 or 15 years ago, but I’m only guessing. You already answered me some months ago about why 25 instead of 38 or more matches; I wonder if is the same case with H2H records?.

In other subject, I found very interesting your highly statistical/mathematic approach to soccer since I discovered this site; the vast majority only base their predictions/expected distributions on what many people like to call “form”, or if X or Y player is absent or available to be in the match, many bettors use to pay too much attention to those tiny details, some even wait until line ups are given to take a position.

I really doubt bookmakers pay so much attention to every single detail to build their prices, as they have hundreds of games per week in many sports not just soccer; that approach IMO it’s a bit time waster, unless they know in advance some significant and fishy information; like a match being fixed; I still can’t understand statistically how important is the starting 11; a midfielder being injured, a coach being fired, etc.?

Hi Jogomo, many thanks for your praise. It is always very motivating to hear kind words. 🙂

There are many reasons for using the last 10 years for capturing H2H statistics. I will try to answer your query in greater detail via an article. However, the short answer is that every other sample size is far less statistically significant, even the requirement of “at least 6 H2H matches” is very small in statistical terms. Nevertheless, it works and brings up pretty accurate results.

Regarding bookmakers, just keep reminding yourself that these guys publish their odds sometimes weeks in advance of a game. They don’t have a crystal ball to predict the starting 11, a midfielder being injured, a coach being fired, etc. Check this article:

How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?It may answer your query. If not, don’t hesitate and keep asking. Questions really help us to know which topics are of high interest to our readers and need addressing.Hey soccerwidow I bought the value detector and I started a portofolio.But I have a problem.I don’t have a real bank at the moment so I keep an evidence only virtual of my bets.The portfolio is only 2 weeks old so I started with a bank of 200 units but the problem is that only 1 or 2 times till now I got a bank increase in the rest of the time my bank still decrease.So I think the problem is on choosing the bets.In 2 weeks I picked about 85 value bets and 11 of them are Half Time/Full Time.From those 11 HT/FT picks only 1 win at the odd of 4.5 so I have a big loose of this kind of bet.Is there a trick on choosing the value bets ? How do you choose the value bets from a match ? I saw that you started with a bank of 50 euros and your bank growed almost every month.Do you also take the hgher probabilitys in count? Most of the HT/FT bets that I choosed are over 20% probability and win only 1.It’s true that a winning HT/FT bet can boost your bank but it seems that it’s so hard to win this kind of bet.I will really appreciate if you will give me and advice !

Hi Sergiu, the VC is not an automated betting tool. It has been developed to support people to identify value bets and implement their own strategies.

Column S brings up betting suggestions. However, you need to decide which betting types you want to concentrate on, and which probability clusters to follow.

For example, if you keep picking bets with a probability of 70% and higher to win, then on average you should observe 7 out of 10 picks winning. However, if you keep swinging between different probability clusters then the bets are not comparable, and also they are not comparable if you don’t stick to a certain strategy, e.g. Over/Under goals markets, or HT result market.

If you look at the value calculator you should see that the HT/FT market is marked “MONITORING PURPOSES ONLY”. The reason is that most of these bets have very low probabilities such as 20% and below. If you decide, for example, to bet on Home/Home if there is value and a probability of around 20% then you will be expecting that of every 5 bets one bet wins. However, unfortunately bets do not line up nicely. Within these low probability groups you may experience a ‘lucky’ streak and win a few bets in a row, but also observe dozens of consecutive bets losing.

I hope this helps.

Hi Soccerwidow,

Firstly, a very big and nice compliment to you … A few weeks ago I bought your Excel spreadsheet for league games and I am very happy with it.

It is so super clear, and the most amazing thing is that it works really great … I have analyzed a good number of games and only need half an hour for a complete evaluation. So far, I have calculated around 120 matches 🙂

Some of them fell through the filter and had almost no value, but 48 matches I was happy with and achieved a 16% ROI ;)! I think that the 16% figure is somewhat utopian and will probably correct itself to about 10% but that is more than satisfying…

It is truly amazing how accurately mathematics and statistics can predict a game … breathtaking output!

Hello,

Looks interesting as 90% of your website

To use this tool i have update odds for each match manually or updates are automated?

Sorry for my poor english.

Best regards

Hi Manu and thanks for your question…

Everything has to be done manually.

There are too many users from different parts of the world, using different bookmakers, interested in different leagues, following their own strategies and interests, etc. to make automation of the spreadsheet viable.

Hello,

Why 50-50% to estimate true odds? (Last results-H2H)

Why not 70-30?

Thanks

Hi Manu, because the 50-50 split is the formula which works best for league games with H2H history. It returns accurate results with a low variance – meaning that the expected distribution (own calculations) and the observed results match with higher accuracy than when applying any other approach.

This topic is on my schedule to address in more depth as we receive quite a good number of queries.

Hello,

Does the excel works automatic or i have to introduce odds (1×2, etc) manually?

Are there updates every month or similar?

Thanks

Dear Manu,

please watch the supporting videos (links are below the video embedded on this site).

The spreadsheet is not (!) a tool for automated betting, and it does not (!) work automatically.

It has been developed for learning purposes, for people who wish to learn odds calculation to improve their betting skills by pointing out match result probabilities and the notional “value” contained in each bet.

Hey soccerwidow I have a question for you.When you pick a prediction lets say one with value grater than 30% what you take in consideration Value 1 or Value 2 mathematical advantage? And what is the difference between those 2.Please help me!

Value I = % price difference between market odds/real odds

Value II = % ‘value’ or ‘mathematical advantage’

It’s up to you which one you take into considaration and base your decisions upon but stick to the same evaluation process all the time.

These two articles may help you to understand the term ‘mathematical advantage’ better:

What is a Bet? How to Calculate Mathematical Advantage?

Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Thanks for your question, and I will add it to my list of topics to address in a little bit more in detail.

I’m still confused and I readed the two articles you linked me.I saw that in the Liverpool-Man.City you tooked in consideration value I.

Hi Jay, I am really sorry for your confusion, but odds calculation is not explained in a short answer.

The value calculator is a learning tool; the level is more advanced than our Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals.

The course teaches an understanding of probabilties, odds calculation, as well as ‘value’. It contains loads of example calculations and own exercises. The value calculator presupposes that this basic knowledge is already there.

Hi, is there a problem on the U1.5 and U2.5 tabs? For example I have 29.18% and 3.43 in true odds, 4.50 best odds for U1.5. I type Back into custom and I get 77.8% betfair win probability and 70.8% real win probability for a value of -23.8%. Surely this is wrong, and it is the similar on the U2.5, it is acting like I have offered the lay odds instead.

Any help, appreciated.

Thanks, Ravi

Hi Ravi, thank you for your valuable indication.

Yes, you are right, but this is not really an error as the spreadsheet is set up in the belief that the majority of punters prefer backing O 1.5, not U 1.5.

However, I will address the issue today, and email to you an updated version as well as upload the newer version for future customers which takes this into account.

Thanks for the quick reply. Any ETA on the update?

Hi Ravi, I just emailed to you the updated version, and we will also upload the newer version to the site asap.

Hi again,

Just a update that since using the new spreadsheet I now don’t get the Value II %’s in the Full Time Result odds. Also, in the U3.5 tab, the Value II percentage’s are originally wrong unless I manually type in Back into the Custom tab.

Other than that I’m enjoying looking for some value strategies.

Ravi

Hi Ravi, this isn’t an error.

Value I shows the price difference between market odds and the calculated true odds. This percentage is always the same. Either the market price is higher than the true odds, then it’s a positive value, or smaller – then it’s negative.

Value II is either negative or positive, depending if it’s a lay or a back, and also depending if the market price is higher or lower than the true odds.

In the previous version a value was always displayed, assuming a back bet and disregarding a lay bet.

With the update, I improved the spreadsheet, and there is no value displayed as it’s misleading if it is not known if the bettor wants to back or to lay.

Many thanx for an excellent spreadsheet

The spreadshhet is an excellent doing for what I have been trying to do for a long while.

Hi

I readed your article. I watched your video. I still undertand. You can explain what is “HS-AO ,AS-HO,H-CS,A-CS” ? Thanks

HS-AO Home scores, Away NIL goals

AS-HO Away scores, Home NIL goals

H-CS Home Clean Sheet

A-CS Away Clean Sheet

Hi.

I don’t understand how you caculated Prob.W in Asian handicap ? Can you explain to me ? Thanks

Hi love,

how to calculate Asian Handicap is going to be a (paid) course one day. It cannot be explained in a few words. Sorry.

Ex: In video (Asian handicap)

Liverpool -1

Head to head

W bet win = 1

Push money back = 5

L bet Lose = 5

I think Prob W = 1/11=9.09%. But i saw you caculated =16.67%.

Can you share formula to me? I need the fomrmula

Hope you help.

Thanks

Hi love,

if you buy the spreadsheet it contains all formulas underlying the calculations in it (although without explanations why they work). The formulas are not hidden or secret.

Regards, Soccerwidow

Hello sir, I read some article of your site and I realized that they are in the right place … I have done a course with a professional player who taught me how to calculate the value of a game, in this way:

see the last 25 games for the home team, the team’s last 25 games on the road, add the wins for the home team and the away team’s defeats, x + x + defeats for the home team wins the away team, do the math and then find the percentages and convert them into shares …

Just recently I contacted a programmer to understand if there is the possibility of creating an application which goes to carcare the last 25 games, and does the calculations automatically … you have a software like this that updates only with matches? why do all this work every day, it takes a lot of time and effort.

Another question …. do you predictions a subscription service of value?

Hi Morris,

it should be possible to create an application which does the capturing of historical data automatically. However, the tricky bit is that many leagues have different numbers of teams and games each season; there are several teams with shared grounds

(e.g. Inter Milan and AC Milan); in addition, there is some movement each season as teams are relegated and promoted. There are many things to consider when programming an application as leagues do not stay stable(data processing in programming terms). This is quite a challenge when automating the data collection process.Regarding predictions and subscriptions, I’m sorry but we follow a DIY (Do It Yourself) approach. Our readers come from every country on this planet, each of them following their own team, having access to different bookmakers, and preferring different betting types. It is therefore really not possible to create a subscription service which is suitable and will satisfy all of our readers.

ok thanks for reply …

You are doing a service in which the value indicated on the matches of the top European leagues?

My problem is that working out every day, I do not have much time to dedicate to betting the right study to find the value.

Do you have a service subscription predictions?

or know of a reliable site?

Hi Maurizio,

The match previews I think you referring to were commissioned by Betfair Germany, and we translated them for our readers into English and published them on Soccerwidow.com: Archive Match Previews Euro 2012

Unfortunately, there was a major change in gambling legislation in autumn 2012 in Germany which forced bookmakers and exchanges to withdraw from the German market. For us this meant that we lost our (well paid!) contract to publish free match previews and predictions: Soccerwidow Match Preview Pause in Betfair German Blog

Although the picks were very successful: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012, we have not succeeded to find another publisher who would be interested in statistical articles and picks.

Therefore, sadly, there are no more free picks, and no more match previews for the public from us.

To your question regarding a service subscription prediction: No, we are planning neither a pick service nor a subscription service. And I’m very sorry, but I do not know any pick service site in the Internet which I would fully and wholeheartedly call “reliable”; but not because there are no reliable sites. There may be some. But to check them if there are reliable we would have to monitor their services over a long period, and this is not our job.

Sorry we cannot be of further assistance.

Can you be more detailed and tell me what kind of selections should I pick? cuz simply it doesnt work.Lots of 80-90% LOSE and I loose a lot on those selections.What stacking pland do you use soccerwidow? How you choose the selections? I think the real answers for those two questions are crucial between using this spread sheet for “making a living from it” and use it in a loose like other 90% of people.

Hi Leon,

You are asking a question which I addressed in my article

What is Value? What is Value Betting?The Value Calculator computes two different ‘Values’:

(1) Value I: Mathematical advantage of a bet (expected return = ROI)

(2) Value II: Relative deviation from the market odds

Unfortunately, after ‘value’ has been calculated by our spreadsheet the brain needs to kick in, because there is no statistical analysis in this world, no formula, no super-computer, which is able to replace the human capabilities of reason and logic.

To become a winner it is crucial to understand the concept of value, but the story is not over then. In order to win, you have to build cluster groups as well as construct portfolios for risk diversification.

I am planning a comprehensive course on this topic, and if time permits it will be ready for publishing by the end of this year.

Regarding Cluster Groups you will find them mentioned in Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012.

Ok I read the article that you sent me and I got in the right direction , but I have one more question.There you say that Value I is mathematical advantage (ROI) and Value II is relative deviation but in the spreadsheet that I have Value I is % price difference between market odds/real odds and Value II is mathematical advantage….

Hi Leon, well observed 😉

The titles in the spreadsheet are somehow ambiguous, but the formulas are exactly as explained in the article.

First column – Value I – price difference/ expected ROI

Second column – Value II – relative deviation

Strictly speaking, both values are ‘mathematical advantages’.

Odds calculation is nowhere properly explained and terminology is wildly mixed up everywhere. Unfortunately, there is no reliable reference literature I can refer you to. I need to come up with the terminology myself and correct it along the way. This is something where I’m consistently trying to link up with native English mathematicians/statisticians to help me with the correct use of mathematical terminology.

My native languages are Russian and German, and my financial and mathematical education is from German universities. Although I have strong links to universities in Germany, the mathematicians there are as lost as I am in regards of the handling of English mathematical terminology.

This is actually the main reason why there are not too many explanatory mathematical articles in this blog as each one needs weeks (and sometimes months) of research before ready for publishing.

Hi, I am interested in your spreadsheet, but nowadays http://www.football-data.co.uk do not offer their historical matches results ordered as you demonstrate in your video, and take too much time to input every single result one by one from a data historical result, do you have a solution for this problem? Do you sell your historical results spreadsheet for be able to use the value detector?

Hi Luis,

Football-data.co.uk still offers historical data for free download. Here the link: http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php, but the data comes raw and needs to be prepared as explained in this video: How to prepare historical football data in Excel for further analysis

Hi Soccer widow,

Will you produce a value betting spreadsheet for the W.C. in Brazil this summer?

I don’t see something relevant in the online store.

Thank u

Hi Socrates,

I’m sorry, but there is nothing planned for the W.C. this year.

Odds calculation for matches without any (or hardly) any statistics is enormously time-consuming.

We did match previews for the Euro 2012 (archive here), and each of them took most of a whole day to compile and analyse. Although the picks were very successful, unfortunately we do not have the luxury of such time to devote to a similar exercise.

My advice is just to lean back and enjoy the competition. We can give you one tip, England will not win the World Cup! 😉

Thank u for the swift reply.

I was thinking of adjusting the spreadsheet for int. club competitions for the W.C.

Explaining : 30 competitive away matches for each team in order to assess the form + 10 on neutral turf and you can get a decent comparison for both sides.

With Brazil you need to include 30 matches on home turf

In any case, all of your sheets, which i bought, produce amazing results, but most importantly they change the way we bet.

Keep up the good work

Hi Socrates, please don’t! It’s not going to work. Save yourself the time and just enjoy the games. 🙂

However, if you wish to continue betting during the summer break in Europe, please note that the VC is applicable to every professional league in the world as long as it’s a league game with H2H history.

So, instead of a European team you can easily use it for Nordic games, or the MLS, for example.

Dear soccer widow,

How would u approach a match between teams who share common ground ?

I mean local derbies like ; AC Milan vs Inter Milan or Roma vs Lazio?

Perhaps : 25 home matches each club + H2H history irrespective of who is home, with a minimum of 25 games?

Enlighten me once again !

You are correct!

Last 25 matches – both teams the home matches

H2H – all matches – irrespective of who is home.. Stick here to last 10 years. You can even reduce to max. 10 H2H matches. It’s only a correction factor in the calculations.

Hi!

I am just wondering why can’t I change the best odds on Asian Handicap Away team. The cells are green, but it wont let me change the automatic odds the sheets have entered there…these odds are different to the bookies odds I would like to enter there.

And also, can somebody advice me a good site to check odds for the games that have been already played?

Thanks in advance

Hi Lauri,

I have sent you the password to unprotect the spreadsheet, but roughly speaking, odds on one side of the equation are always balanced out by those on the other side. Therefore, the spreadsheet takes away the necessity to fill in the away team odds by automatically calculating the corresponding odds. For example, if one side of the bet is priced with a 30% chance of winning, then the other side of the bet has to be 70% (minus approx. 5% bookmaker overround).

There is a plethora of sites to check for games which have already been played. A good start is our Link Directory, but also the many articles in which we address historical data.

Thanks.

I understand that.

But the “Best odds from the bookmakers” are different than what the sheets give us in the Overs market.

For example:

Southampton vs ManU this weekend. Bet365 offers Over 2.5 @ odds 1.72.

Excel sheets automatically gives Over 2.5 odds @ 1.88.

So if the sheets say there is value betting over 2,5 @ 1.88, but odds with my bookmaker are 1.72, not 1.88 so the value there is wrong …

If the expected O2.5 odds are calculated 1.88 (the formulae in the spreadsheet takes 5% bookmaker overround into consideration), then 1.72 is far, far, far too low! Huge overround, and huge advantage for the bookies.

Do not back bets like this. Laying though may be considered, but it really depends on your strategy and the probability group(s) you are focusing on.

Hi Soccerwidow,

I also really appreciate you sharing this knowledge.

Is it possible to have the password to unprotect the sheet?

Hy hunny2o2,

Thanks for your custom. I’ve emailed the password to you 🙂

Hi, I bought excel sheet, I have read all the comments and they were all helpful, but I would ask if any of your clients or staff, made a video which shows clearly how to load the data of 25 games at home and outside the home, I can not copy from the sites that you have said ….

I’m doing everything by hand and it is a long job.

it is possible to have a video of a few minutes when you see the start, what should I do?

The video that you have put all the data is useful but Liverpool – Manchester C. are already loaded and does not help people like me who has to start from the beginning.

thanks

Hi Maurizio,

here is a video how to input data: How to input match & H2H data

Although data input is a manual job, with a little practice it will become easier and quicker, and finally the time needed to fill in the data for the last 25 matches and H2H’s should take no more than 5 minutes for each match.

Thanks

Hi Soccerwidow,

In the case of international club competitions (UCL or Europa etc) where teams come from the same country (e.g. Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid) is it preferable to use the spreadsheet with H2H history, used for domestic leagues or the spreadsheet for club competitions ??

both seem to apply , but i get totally different value bets !

Regards,

Hi Socrates,

the VC with H2H history returns more accurate predictions than the spreadsheet for international club competitions because of the H2H correction factor. Therefore, it is advisable to use the spreadsheet with H2H history if applicable.

Best wishes,

Soccerwidow

Hi Soccerwidow,

I never play Asian handicap, would you recommend me to buy with or without Asian handicap excel? I mostly play Over/Under and “Both teams score or not” and if I find it worth betting FT. Will the excel sheet you provide enable my betting having a mathematical background. I am a Financial Mathematician in Turkey and I’ll probably understand the language you’ll talk to me but my main concern is that whether or not this excel will help me in my betting. 🙂 If I have a clear answer I would really appreciate it. Thank you

Hi TBBT, thanks for your interest in purchasing the VC… The ASH predictions are more accurate (

have a lower error rate – I speak here to a mathematician who knows the term😉 ) than the FT 1×2 market because the ASH calculations are based on goal differences whilst the 1×2 market is not.FT 1×2 is tricky for the bettor because only 1 goal in favour of a team can turn the whole match to win in either direction, or turn a lead into a draw.

The same applies to the O/U market – again more accurate that 1×2. However, if you fancy 1×2 betting then the HT market is quite interesting, far more than the FT as the lads have then only 45 minutes to mess up with statistics.

Thanks for the answer Soccerwidow, but my main question here is will this Excel sheet help me to predict a likely outcome of the goals scored in the game? Can I just input past 25 and 7 H2H games and find a probabilistic result?

Yes, you can just input past 25 and 7 H2H games and find probabilistic results.

The spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ probabilities of different outcomes (e.g. Under 3.5 goals, home team win at HT, etc.), for most bet types with error rates under 3%, meaning that if the VC calculated last weekend for Man City a 49% probability for their away win against West Ham

(see example in following article: Are Betting Odds Worthwhile Calculating? Are Betting Odds Always Fair?), then the expected and empirically observed hit rate for matches in this particular probability cluster is(of course, after a good number of observations)somewhere between 46% and 52% (49% +/- 3%).Here is a

screenshotfrom my monitoring of the VC ‘true’ odds cluster calculations containing 609 observed matches.Hi again, may i ask which indicators you look when betting over under, 1×2 and will both teams score or not? I believe, correct me if I’m wrong, from which I have learned from your videos is that:

1- if the true odds are lower than the bookmakers odds then there is a value there and is worth betting?

2- What if that even tough the value is negative but we believe that the bet will win, should bet on it, where it give higher odds to that bet.

3- In addition to this what if there are less than 6 h2h games, can we still bet on the game?

4- One last thing the game tomorrow between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, the model says to bet on Dortmund but I believe this is not a good bet, due to Bayern Munich’s winning streak and strength over Dortmund. Why is the reason for this?

Thank you in advance 🙂

and one last question, I really cannot understand what laying or backing is, from where I play there are no laying or backing. Can you explain this in couple of sentences also 🙂

Hi Soccerwidow

1.When you calculated those 609 and came up with the error rate, which “rules” did you use? Did you pick everthing that has shown a positive Value 1? Or everything that has shown you “Back” (Column D>E,…)? Or did you use more criterias apart from the calculated results (your personal/own estimate)

2.When testing the error rate for the AHC section, i assume u used the formula in automatic aswell, did you?

If yes, how did you came up with the “ColumnZ*1.2>ColumnR”

Did you only choose the Handicaps 0, 0.5, 1 or also the Handicaps 0.25, 0.75 (since these are only created out of the others)

– The problem is that i werent able to reach similar results – the percentages were off and also the expected yield is not matching the real. What could i do better when selecting a bet. (I prefer AHC and 1X2 – when i find a way to match the expected with the real results, like you do, i would be fine abandoning one of them)

3.To be sure: the H2H games are league aswell as cup games? i guess only the league cup in each country (not telekom cup or similar) – Ive read something about only using a max. of 10 H2H. What if e.g. south american leagues play each other 2-3 times a year at home, which leads to 15-20 H2H games.

4.The European Leagues are starting soon – would you leave out the first matchdays or start calculating from day 1.

Hi Kai,

In statistics, if one speaks about ‘error’ then the talk is about deviation: The deviation (error) from the (expected) mean.

You are referring to the screenshot with my monitoring of the VC ‘true’ odds cluster calculations. For example, look at Full-Time HOME – 40.0 to 49.99% probability cluster: You would have expected in this cluster a hit rate (mean) of 45.0%, and the observed hit rate was 48.3%

(‘error’ = deviation from the expectation: 3.3%)If you like to learn deviation and ‘errors’ then you should probably consider of purchasing the

Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course; there I explain in great detail this terminology and its use for betting.Your 2. Question… The automatic formulas are years of research and I simply cannot explain in just a few words how I came up with them. Please keep in mind that the VC was mainly developed to assist me with my match previews whilst I was writing for Betfair. I needed to be able to identify a diversified portfolio of different bet types for one single match, not only 1×2 bets.

If you are mainly interested into 1×2 betting you should probably consider the

HDAFU Tables, they are much more useful for developing a betting system for the Home-Draw-Away market.3. The more H2H you can take in the better. Again, please keep in mind as I was developing the VC that I was writing for Betfair Germany as well as Betfair England. Both were not interested into any American matches but only the EPL and the German BL. Therefore, at that time, I have never thought about the South American leagues when writing articles for Soccerwidow.

However, of course you can use the VC for any other professional leagues in the whole world

(statistics are statistics!)as long as it’s a stable format.4. For betting purposes if you use the VC only I would leave the first six weeks untouched as with taking 25 games for calculation you are going to cover the previous season and the pre-previous season which makes the results very volatile to deviation (errors).

Dear TBBT,

The indicators are formulas we have inserted into the Value Calculator (VC) based on the probabilities of winning each bet type. The formulas are based on a statistically significant data set of matches we have analysed ourselves using the VC. Therefore, past performance has been noted and used to set the benchmarks for identifying future results.

In answer to your numbered quesions:

1. Yes, if the bookmaker odds are higher than the true odds then this is a value back bet. If they are lower than true odds, then this is a value lay bet.

2. We cannot influence your betting decisions but if you bet under-value consistently then you are guaranteed to make a long term loss on your investments.

3. The VC is set up in such a way that a correction factor of at least six competitive head-to-head games must have been played between the two teams at the same venue in the preceding 10 calendar years. By competitive games we mean league and cup fixtures, no friendlies. If you have less than six H2H meetings then do not use the VC for that match.

4. The VC will indicate whether to make a bet if the value is positive and the probability is high enough. At the end of the day, the VC is purely an arithmetical tool and does not substitute for your better judgment. Use the VC to highlight potential bets and then use your own intuition to make the final set of bet selections.

Do you mean no laying only backing results where you play? Laying is effectively betting against a particular result. If you feel Dortmund are only good enough for a draw at best then you should lay them to win. If they lose or draw, your bet wins. This type of bet can only be performed at betting exchanges or in the following ways via bookmakers:

http://soccerwidow.com/betting-advice/alternatives-to-lay-betting/

I hope this helps and thanks again for your interest in Soccerwidow.

What I mean by no laying and no backing is, you only play against the bookmaker, I play from Tempobet if you can go to the internet site than you can see what I am talking about. Please help me 🙂

Hi again TBBT,

To be absolutely clear – Backing is what you do when you play against the bookmaker.

I have had a look at Tempobet’s site and they are no different from any other bookmaker. Every bet you make here is a back bet, but please read the “Alternatives to Lay Betting” article linked in my previous post to you. You will see the back bets with bookmakers which are effectively lay bets (i.e. betting against an outcome). For example, Tempobet allows you to make 1X, 12, or X2 bets. This is the double chance market. If you choose 1X, you are backing the match to end in a home win or a draw to win your bet. You are effectively betting against the away team to win, which is the same as placing a straight lay bet on the away team with a betting exchange.

I hope this helps! 🙂

Hi SoccerWidow,

I’ve been using the spreadsheet for a couple of years now with excellent results. I am trying to fine tune the model and my main concern is which odds to use?

Should i use the highest opening odds from various top notch bookmakers or wait until the final odds a few minutes prior to game?

Arguments for the latter say that odds just before kick off reflect the true odds of the particular fixture, because the market has considered all variables and therefore this set should be used on our calculation.

Personally, i prefer using the highest opening odds from top bookmakers (bookie’s juice <3%), before market forces distort the prices and making you lose most of the value .

I wonder your thoughts on this ….

I would greatly appreciate an article on "Is there value when the odds are dropping?"

Hi, again

How would you rate predictions based on team strength (table position) brackets or playing styles against pure h2h statistics? H2h gives a gut feeling of having little relevance when we’re talking years of separation. Do you have any indication of where one should draw the line on h2h back history?

Hi again Socrates,

We find the spreadsheet accuracy over the long term very satisfactory with many of the 1×2 bet types especially, within +/-3% error rate. That said, we have had to fill-in over 700 spreadsheets from different leagues to gain enough data to analyse with this much confidence.

Personally speaking, we use the highest odds on the evening before kick-off and then place the bets early next morning. So long as you set yourself benchmarks for odds collection and bet placement and stick to them, you should receive pretty uniform results from the calculator.

After all, the Value Calculator looks only at past results (numbers) to predict future performance. It doesn’t take into account all the movements in team news and odds in all the historical fixtures analysed, so there is no need to let yourself become influenced by market movements prior to kick-off. The Value Calculator exists to take out the emotion from betting and turn it into a pure numbers game. Use your judgment once you have the numbers in front of you.

Because the Value Calculator uses the last 25 respective home/away results of the two teams involved, plus all competitive head-to-head results in the last 10 calendar years prior to kick-off (minimum of 6 h2H’s needed for relevance), you are always going to be slightly restricted on your match selection for analysis. But this is good, as you are only ever looking at a cluster of matches which roughly correspond with one another. You will always be comparing ‘apples with apples’ using such an approach.

Try also looking at the probability fields in the Value Calculator – backing high probability outcomes is still profitable in some leagues, even when the odds do not indicate significant value.

I hope I have touched upon “is there value when the odds are dropping”, but it is certainly an excellent point of discussion and perhaps a topic for an article in the near future.

Thanks again for your interest in Soccerwidow, Socrates.

Hello again Mike,

As I’ve just mentioned in my last post, we find the most relevant sample for statistical significance is 10 calendar years of competitive H2H results (no friendlies) prior to kick-off. In other words, historical games between the two teams you are analysing which took place at the ground of the home team. We also set a minimum figure of six H2H’s in that 10 year period – if the teams have played less than six H2H’s in the last 10 years then we do not analyse the game. The H2H record is the first thing we look at when deciding upon match selection.

H2H history is a great leveller. You can see the effects on the odds once you’ve inputted the historical data. Enter the two teams’ data first and then look at the main Value Calculator tab. Notice the odds and compare them with what is being offered in the market. Then fill-in the head-to-head data. Look back at the VC tab and you’ll find the effect the H2H results have.

In the Value Calculator, averages are compared with averages. Analyse three home games in a row for a particular team and you won’t see much difference in the odds and probabilities suggested because much of the same data is used for the first match back as opposed to the third match back. It’s the same for the away team. It’s the same for the H2H’s. All of this data is only used to define what an ‘average’ game (in terms of numbers) between the two teams would look like if the match played out to recent form.

H2H data also helps build a picture of how the two teams in question have played against each other in past. If the home team holds a hoodoo over the away team then this factor is built in to the values and probabilities shown in the calculator. It has a ‘smoothing effect’ and is the only data directly relevant to matches between the two teams. With data this important, why would you not include it in your calculations?

Don’t forget, the Value Calculator is a tool to give you the numbers in advance of a situation. You cannot influence the match outcome, but looking back at the past in order to interpret what may happen in the future is the only way of setting odds. This is the way bookmakers operate, so in order to compete, you must join them.

Mike, I hope this helps!

Hi Soccerwidow and Soccerwidow’s Bloke :),

I want to find historical data for the Denmark League can you help me please as soon as possible. I cant find historical excel sheet data about the Denmark league anywhere.

If you could help I would really appreciate it 🙂

Thank you 🙂

Hi Soccerwidow,

i’ve tried the spreadsheet and I´ve got interesting results. In some leagues are the odds very similar to odds of bookmakers, but in some ligue f.e. germany bundesliga is your algoritmus for setting of “true odds” very dubious. I made backtesting in more than 100 matches, which I choose value regads your algoritmus (matches with big value),but I have to say, I would lost a lot of moeny, if I use your algoritmus.

50% weight for h2h is relly optimistic and I am sure, that bookmakers don´t give so big weight for H2h by setting the odds.

Nevermind, I like your website 🙂

Hi Jozef,

Thanks for taking the time and trouble to comment.

Having analysed over 750 matches with the Value Calculator in various worldwide leagues, we find the algorithms accurate to within +/-5% on most bet types, with others performing even better.

When we get to 1,000 matches analysed we shall publish the results and this in turn may lead to one or two of the algorithms being tweaked. It may even lead to individual calculators for certain leagues, but 100 spreadsheets is probably too few to be able to make firm judgments. 100 games in the Bundesliga does not even represent a third of a whole season – the more stats you have, the more reliable information extracted from them becomes.

Please don’t get caught in thinking that the calculator is an automated bet picking tool. All it does is give you numerical information regarding the probabilities of outcomes occurring and whether or not they contain value.

Once you have this information to hand, it is then necessary to pick the bets you feel are right for you. You might want to place bets only on outcomes where the calculator has indicated a 75% probability of success, or higher.

Concentrate on the probabilities and then look to see if the bet carries value. Even if the value is negative, in the long run you may still turn a profit backing 75% chances.

If you are going to work on specific algorithms for the Bundesliga then it would be great to hear from you again with any findings you may discover. We can then trawl through our data and confirm whether or not you are on the right track.

Hope this helps and thanks again for your interest in Soccerwidow.

Hi Soccerwidow, I’ve been using this calculator for a while, so far has been a hit and miss; the biggest issue I had it’s the variance, from month to month even choosing the same kind of bets and probability clusters (flat stake mostly asian handicap and over/unders with 65-75%) the results differ a lot. The earnings from a good period are lost in the following month and so on, after nearly 400 bets it’s hard to break even.

Maybe I’m missing something or using an older version of this spreadsheet, but sometimes I feel this is pure luck. Also I think when it comes to bigger leagues as EPL, La Liga, Serie A it’s very difficult to have an edge against the bookies, they have too many sources and information, they won’t commit mistakes that easily in those markets; for example it doesn’t matter if an underdog it’s “value” priced generally they know very well in advance why they’re publishing those odds. Perhaps the biggest amount of money in these leagues and some others mostly comes from arbitrage betting and it could explain the irrational odds movements pre match, that’s a theory a I have.

Finally, I’d like to discuss when you say that this is only a numeric tool (which I agree) but then you add to “pick the bets you feel are right for you”; in my opinion picking the bets you consider the winners without any numeric calculation, it’s basically betting by gut feeling. For example it doesn’t matter if this spreadsheet tells me that Parma +1.5 (1.82 in Pinnacle) has 70% probability against Napoli if I’m certain that Napoli it’s going to trash Parma which is having a terrible season by 2, 3 or even more goals? what I should trust in that case, the numbers or my perception?

I would like to read your answer.

P.D: By the way, Parma lost 2-0; according to the calculator Napoli -1.5 had 30% of probability and was priced 2.14 in Pinnacle right before the game, I lost many bets like this.

In the video you said that

2,94+11,00 aver. is 4,64

How come when is 6,97

Please find an explanation of the calculation of average odds here: How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting

I have the sheet for a while now but didn’t had any time to use it. Last weeks i did some tests whit it and it looks like this could be a handy tool to add to my analysis. I was wondering if i can use this sheet also for south american competitions who are working with apertura and clausura? Do i have to use the last 25 home games in the apertura for example or can i take the last 25 home games of apertura and clausura together?

Hi R82,

The Apertura (opening) and Clausura (closing) are just two halves of a complete ‘season’ in many South American leagues.

You should use the last 25 home games for the home team and the last 25 away games for the away team regardless of whether the run of games came in the Apertura or Clausura, or both (which is more likely as the largest leagues of this nature contain only 20 teams).

Essentially the data you will use comes from the same ‘league’ and it doesn’t matter which half produces the larger portion of your 25 game complement.

I hope this helps and thanks for your question. Good luck!

Thanks for your quick answer 🙂

hi soccerwidow

i am very interested in your true odds calculations.

are they calculated in this product the same way as in the O/U course??

And if so have you a more advanced model/product for more accurate odds?? ie. different variables

thanks and keep up the good work😊

hi soccerwidow

does this product explain how the true odds are calculated or does it just give the formulas??

i like the tool but am also interested in where the numbers come from…

thanks

Hi Pico,

Thanks for your questions. The Value Calculator (VC) relies upon a smaller data set – the last 25 respective league home and away games of the two teams involved. There is also the inclusion of head-to-head (H2H) results between the two teams in the same fixture over the last 10 calendar years, with the proviso that there must be at least six such results to make the spreadsheet calculations valid. (In other words, the match analysed must contain at least six H2H meetings in all competitions excluding friendlies – don’t use the VC in cases where there are insufficient H2H data.

The H2H data helps add significance or weight to the calculations and sometimes you may find H2H results are also included in the home and away statistics of both teams (i.e. they may have played each other in this same fixture within their last 25 respective home or away league games).

So, as the VC is a snapshot of statistics, it does not employ the same methods as the Over/Under course, which is a more thorough but also more time-consuming method of odds calculation.

The VC provides a solid benchmark to use to identify probabilities of future events occurring and the mathematical value included in any bets flagged up by the VC, or indeed those you are consistently interested in.

The VC has been put together with four years of analysis, and comparing the results with the actual odds available in the market, the accuracy rate of the VC is between +/-3% and +/-5%, depending on the bet type. With this degree of accuracy, it gives a reliable platform to compare current odds with historical statistics and provide you with serious betting options.

The VC contains just the formulas – if we were to explain how the true odds are calculated in words, we would be here until next Christmas (sorry!).

We have tried to make it easier for you to comprehend odds calculation with the introduction of our

Home, Draw, Away, Favourite and Underdog (HDAFU) tables, which are statistical works of art and as such, would fall into the category of more advanced product. Watch out in the next few days as we put the latest batch of these on the site for sale…Best regards.

thanks for your in depth reply

i will purchase the O/U course in the next few days

thanks

Some questions please.

1) I want clarify what the situation is if both teams have less than six H2H statistic

2) Does the chart work for teams that are new to the league

3) When is the best time to enter odds and analyze?

4) Does column AG and AH automatically populate when you enter the odds?

Many thanks.

Hello Mahendra,

Answering your questions in order:

1) If the match in question has less than six head-to-head (H2H) competitive meetings at the same ground in the last 10 calendar years immediately preceding the date of the match you are analysing, then do not use the Value Calculator in this case. Pick only games with at least six H2H encounters. Use http://www.betexplorer.com to find this out quickly. Here’s a link to the game you mentioned showing all the meetings at Old Trafford (since 1999/2000 in this case): http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/england/premier-league/mutual-matches/?home=ppjDR086&away=WSzc94ws&where=1

With cup games, take only the results as they were after 90 minutes – don’t include extra time or penalties. 10 years to the day would include all the results shown in Betexplorer up to the 0-0 draw on 14.04.2006 – no need to enter any earlier games than this. There are therefore nine games to include on the H2H tab – all matches from 14.04.2006 to the most recent on 03.05.2014.

2) With new entrants to any league it is difficult to fulfill the criteria of last 25 matches in the same league for the home and away tabs. In the case of the EPL, you will find that games between two new entrants can be entered safely in the Value Calculator as both will have played in the same league (The Championship) last season. Remain consistent and never mix data.

3) There is no best time to enter odds as the Value Calculator is based purely on historical statistics. The best time is whenever you are ready to input the odds you have at your disposal as these will provide you with the probabilities and value calculations at that moment in time. If the odds change before you place your bet, then change them in the Value Calculator to see if the values remain positive. Any value above zero is good if you are using bookmakers only, but if you are using a broker or a betting exchange, you must account for the level of commission being charged and only pick potential bets with value over and above the rates of commission you are being charged.

4) Column AH automatically updates when you have entered all the required information. Column AG is a manual override facility if you want to force the calculator to show you probabilities and value. Just type “back” or “lay” (without the speech marks) into column AG when the calculator does not flag up anything in column AH.

Hope this helps.

Hi soccerwidow,

Shouldn’t we include an element of Home Field Advantage in our calculations ?

I wonder your views on that !

Hi Socrates,

the “Home Field Advantage” is factored in by including the H2H history in the calculations as a correction factor. The more often the home team won against their opponent in the past the stronger the factor.

Hi, if I can’t get the odds I desire before kick off is it ok to wait for in-play for the odds to reach what i need? for instance say i want to lay the away team but their odds are too low, could I wait and see if the home side scores or if the match remains a draw then lay the away side once my odds target has been reached?

Hi Marc, yes, this a possible betting strategy. Once you worked out an algorithm which works, it’s advisable to use a bot. Otherwise it’s quite tiresome to sit in front of the computer all the time and wait for a goal. Here an article on this topic: Review and Tips: MarketFeeder Pro – Betfair Bot

Hi, for domestic cup matches which spreadsheet would be best to use would it be the domestic one with head to head or the international club competition without head to head? I was just confused because for example tommorow Middlesbrough who play in the championship are playing Burton Albion who are in league 1 but both teams are in really good form in there respective leauges so it may confuse the true odds.

Hi SoccerWidow,

I purchased your valuebet dector, however, on some match I cannot have the H2H minimum of 6 matches. For example, there were only 1 H2H during the past 10 years, how should I proceed without the H2H data?

Your feedback will be greatly appreciated.

Looking forward to your response!

Best regards,

XNX

Hi XNX,

the VC is ONLY for league games

H2H history! This is a very important correction factor.withIf you don’t have H2H data, i.e. the teams have not played against each other in the last 10 years, then leave it. The calculations are totally different, and much more complicated.

What is HwBH and AwBH?

Hi Graziano,

HwBH = Home team wins both halves

AwBH = Away team wins both halves

Hope this helps!

I have enjoyed using your value bet detector and compliment you on a well thought out and intelligent spreadsheet.

I do however have some recommendations to maybe improve your product.

1. You mention in the notes that column T shows the likelihood of success. Column T is blank.

2. You say that column R shows potential bet candidates. Column R is actually the custom column where the user inputs their own recommendation?

3. Could you explain the criteria that makes a back or lay appear in column S? I have seen on occasion a bet that looks real value but doesn’t trigger this condition.

4. On the home sheet, the home team name is brought in from the main sheet via a function. If you had this as a column where you entered the value it would save cutting and pasting twice to enter data values from the results information that has been acquired. The same could be said with the HTHG/HTAG etc. Columns could be placed in an order so you could enter data in one go instead of several copy and pastes. This also applies to the away sheet.

5. The H2H should be in the same format as the away/home tabs for ease of data entry too.

I have found a way of quickly getting the data together that may work for others. It takes a while to set up but once done gets the information easily and in the format that your tabs are in.

1. download the last 10 years results for each league from football-data as recommended by you.

2. Put the last ten years results in one excel sheet in date order.

3. Look at a site like soccerstand to see the H2H data. This is the quickest filter for a bet recommendation. If there isn’t 6 matches in 10 years go no further.

4. Check both teams home results to see if they are both from the same league. This filters out relegated/promoted teams.

4. When a possible fixture is identified use the data tab and the filter in your 10 years of results spreadsheet to request the info relevant to the home and away teams and copy and paste into the value spreadsheet.

5. in the data tab use the sort facility and sort the home and away teams in two levels to show previous meetings for the H2H.

6. Add other meetings ie, cup/different league etc into the H2H.

7. Your sheet then does the calculations.

regards

timmyp

Seasons greetings from Malaysia. I have a question pertaining to the Value Detector if you don’t mind.

I’ve just a completed 5-year study of the Japanese leagues using the value detector sheet. I used Pinnacle Sports’ closing odds instead of using the highest to be more realistic and League 2’s yield was a loss of 5%. Pinnacle Sports’ average over-round was 3.9% so quite a reasonable over-round.

So are there some leagues that are either too random, or possibly too predictable, that it’s not possible to make a profit? Or do they all make a profit in the long run and this is just an anomaly?

Cheers!

Hello again Mark,

Thanks for taking the trouble to write.

You will find that most divisions outside the top tier league in any country will return negative figures across the board.

The overround is usually so large on these leagues that the odds are simply not high enough to justify committing money to.

The reason for this is that the bookmakers have a real problem trying to balance their book when demand for the bets is not high.

With any fringe division, such as J-League 2, the amount of money turned over and the frequency of the bets struck mean that any bookie will drop odds across the board, making it more expensive for you to buy the bet (in terms of value). When demand is low, the price is low.

I would wholly recommend sticking with the premier leagues in any country you wish to analyse. In fact, any league where demand for bets is high. Prices will be higher, there will be more bookmakers to choose from, and there will be more ‘value’ opportunities because of these.

In answer to your last question, every league is different but patterns can be detected. No league is too predictable! 🙂 It is possible to make a profit from any league where historical statistics (results and odds) can be filtered to show the inflection points in that league (i.e. the point where profits turn to losses or losses turn to profits).

In terms of making an overall profit, you will need numerous systems to support each other and an expected bet count of at least 500 in total per season, although more is preferable. (The Law of Large Numbers).

Hope this helps and thanks again for your contribution.

Hi, I purchased your value bet calculator awhile ago and had a question regarding the head to head games. I noticed that there is a minimum of 6 and max or 10 games. So wouldn’t 6 games give a weight to the formula by 25% and 10 games give a weight to 40%. So with 6 being the minimum wouldn’t this make the results inaccurate since there is a variation of 4? I hope im making sense. Best regards, Amy

Hello Soccerwidow.The last 25 matches of each team must be only league games or league+cup ?

Hi Sergiu, league games only.

Cup games are something totally different. Most teams don’t know each other, they play against other division teams. It’s just complicated.

Hi Soccerwidow,

I don’t understand why I get negative Value II in Over/Under X goals when I have higher “best” odds in column P than “true” odds in column O. I type “back” in column R and Value II is negative. In other cases I have automatic “B” in column Q or/and “Back U 3.5” in column S and Value II is positive, but if I type “back” in column R, Value II turns negative.

And I don’t understand what “NO” bets Betfair mean in column Z?

This is a little “bug” in the spreadsheet. You have to type exactly in the respective line, either:

Back O 1.5, Back O 2.5, etc.

or

Back U 1.5, Back U 2.5, etc.

Just “Back” returns the opposite – the spreadsheet doesn’t know what to do.

Sorry for the confusion, it’s only an Excel spreadsheet.

The Over/Under calculations are made for U 1.5, U 2.5, …, U 6.5

The column “Z” are the calcualated prices for O 1.5, O 2.5, etc.

Sorry, I was not very accurate with my question about column Z. I understand it’s for O 1.5 etc., but I meant why it’s called “”NO” bets” in row 18 and “Betfair” in in row 19?

Regarding the same type of table for “win to nil”, “clean sheet” and “win both halves” markets, “Real” odds in column Y correspond “true” odds of “Win to nil”- No, CS-No, WBH-No?

Hi Jo,

The VC was developed whilst I was writing my match previews for Betfair. Therefore this heading “NO Bets Betfair” in the VC.

If you use Betfair for betting then you open for example the “Under 1.5 Goals” tab. If you bet on “Yes” this means you bet on under, “No” is over.

Sorry for the confusion,

Soccerwidow

Japanese league is about to start, it has 3 stages, the 3rd one is play offs. I prepare manually historical results data sheets (the same like from football data co uk site). Should I include 3rd round play offs in my own made sheets? I’m not sure about it, because 3rd round play offs doesn’t look like a round of regular season to me.

Hello, I’ve purchased the Value Detector several months ago and I am very pleased. It helped me understand how vitally important it is that absolutely all the bets that one places contain mathematical value compared to the odds at which they are placed.

However, I made one very important tweak to it – it now makes THREE separate checks to the so called “true odds”:

– the first with the default 50/50 weighing of the h2h results with the last 25 matches

– the second with 66.7/33.3 weight advantage to the recent 25 matches of bot teams and

– the third with 100% advantage to the recent 25 matches (that is, it completely omits the direct H2H results and calculates the true odds only using the recent matches)

Once these three checks have been complete, I delete the 10 “oldest” matches of both teams and run the three checks once again, but with only 15 recent matches for both teams (this way i give some importance to the more recent form)

ONLY IF a bet passes all SIX checks (the calculated true odds are lower than what is offered on betfair or bet365), then I will begin consider betting on it.

So far, it has been a nice ride, with 280 bets on soccer and a ROI of 7,5%. I have been doing this for 3 months now.

My question to you, Soccerwidow, is when do you think you can say that you have found a winning strategy? How many successful bets do you need to make in order for their count to be a viable statistical example?

hello rado , im interested in knowing how did your betting season go ?

Hi Rado,

We are pleased to hear about your success and a yield of 7.5% is very respectable indeed.

Higher yields are possible when looking at outcomes with higher odds and the underdogs market is of especial interest.

Bookmakers tend to overprice underdogs in the vast majority of games to encourage money away from the favourites, which punters (unfortunately) see as a safer bet.

You would be surprised at how often the underdogs win and yields over 50% are perennially available in certain leagues.

If you go after these opportunities, of course you have to be emotionally immune to the longer losing streaks that naturally attach.

280 bets is a fair sample size. Our ‘rule of thumb’ tends to be 500 bets or more before you can say it is a statistically significant number.

I would be interested to hear from you again once you reach that milestone.

As for tweaking the calculator, well done! It is impossible for us to design one for everyone’s individual taste, and all we can do is provide the tools that make it possible to achieve a successful strategy.

But we can say hand on heart that winning at sports betting is an art – you just have to master the basics before you can begin applying your own thoughts and ideas to the canvass.

Thanks for your valued comment and we hope your run of success continues!

Re: Jo 25 February 2016…

Hello Jo,

You are right, we leave out the play-off stages in every league. They are not ‘normal’ league games and are more akin to cup games, which are vastly more unpredictable.

Stick to stage 1 and 2 in Japan.

Can I use this tool in betting in asianbookie.com? I have no knowledge of odds format. I only know asian handicap betting. May I know can I learn step by step in your website or in your store? Thank u.

Hi Zinphyo,

If you have no knowledge about odds calculation then the ideal place to start is the Odds Calculation Course on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals.

(Please note, there is an updated and far more comprehensive version of this due for release in the next 2-3 weeks, and anyone buying the original version on sale at the moment will be invited to acquire the new version upon launch for a much reduced price)The Value Calculator is a product for people with some more advanced knowledge. You need already to be comfortable with terms such as “probabilities”, odds conversion, and so on.

hello soccer widow, i would like to thank you and congratulate you and your team on the effort put to educate bettors.i purchased the under over x goals course a week ago , though i ve been using the value detector for 2 years now (which i bought a long time ago). i did the home and away clusters for all the italian teams (the last five years between the teams that competed in every previous year) as explained in the under over x goals, and i realised that when i calculate the average of any true odd, it differs a lot between the true odds of the clusters and the odds of the value detector.

example: AC Milan is playing Roma this saturday 14/05/16, and the value detector sheet (containing the last 25 matches and 11 h2h last 10 years) is giving AC Milan home win “2.93” as true odds , while the last 5 years clusters for AC Milan home and Roma away, is giving AC Milan home true odds “2.26”.

This is a huge mathematical difference,so which one is more accurate and which procedure should i employ?

thanks for your help 🙂

Hi Ely, these questions of yours are being addressed and answered in great depth the 2nd edition of the course. You are not the first to ask. 🙂 The course is finished, and we are currently adding the last finishing touch such as formatting and preparing it for publishing.

As soon as it’s published we will inform all the buyers of the 1st edition and offer the upgrade.

hello,

i purchased the under over course , and the value detector 2 years ago.

im curious to know how can i estimate the error rate in my clusters ? (i idid the last 5 years clusters for the premier leagues , but i need to be more precise in order to be okay with my betting).

Hi Ely, another question which has been addressed and answered in great depth the 2nd edition of the course.

To estimate the error rate standard deviation needs to be calculated. How? Again, I have to refer to the forthcoming course, this topic being covered over 20+ pages. No short answer possible, sorry.

Hi again! As promised, I return with the results after 500 bets using the Value Detector. Things have been running smoothly, except for a prolonged losing streak in the 50-59% probabilty cluster that has cost me about 50% of the winnings last month.

My ROI has therefore suffered a drop, but it still is at 6,1%, which is not too bad. All in all, i have placed 506 bets, of which 306 were successful, which is 60,5% accuracy.

The bets that I make are primarily backing the home team, backing over 2,5 and over 1,5 goals and sometimes backing 1X and BTTS. I have had continued misfortune in the under 2,5 and under 3,5 goals markets and have since abandoned them. Another promising field is the “Draw no bet” for the home team, which offers nice odds and reduced risk (when the game ends in a draw, you lose nothing).

By placing these bets, I have been able to win about two minimum wages of the country where I live in each of the past four months, which is pretty solid, I think.

I have one question. How about calculating the value of the matches of EURO 2016 which is right around the corner? Obviously, I can’t use the value detector, because the teams don’t have head to head stats. So, how many matches of the two teams that play a particular game should I take under consideration? How do I calculate the “true odds” and how have you done it 4 years ago at EURO 2012? 🙂

Thanks and I will be returning after I pass the 1000 bets mark around end of the year.

Hi Rado, the Euro 2016 is a real challenge to calculate. There are so many teams which play in this competition for the first time, or have played there but decades ago. Either no data available, or hardly usable.

You can use the VC for teams like France and Germany, but the problem here is that for Germany it is going to be an away game, and for France a home game. And are they actually in the same group? They are not. Bad luck! Should you actually find two teams in the same group with enough H2H’s then you will also have to increase the number of matches to 30 in the Home and Away tabs. You may be lucky and find a couple of matches which can be calculated. But really, is it worth your time? I would recommend to leave the Euro alone, betting wise. Just enjoy the games!

Another thing, as you have been placing 506 bets and monitoring them properly. Would you mind to sort them in probability clusters of 5% and count the losing streaks and the observed hit rate per cluster group? Please also show how many bets there were per cluster. We have an article

The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streakswhich would certainly benefit from a real life example.Unfortunately you won’t be able to upload a screenshot, but you can email the screenshot to me for upload and I will add it to your comment. This would be great! Thanks!

I do not have quite the time to divide them in 5% increments now, but I’ll try to do it later. From what I see in my spreadsheets now, in the 10% increment probability groups, the longest losing streaks are as follows:

50-59% probability – 5 consecutive losses

60-69% probability – 5 consecutive losses

70-79% probability – 3 consecutive losses

Bear in mind that each of the three groups only contains abount 160-170 matches.

Thank you!

Just keep us posted. It always helps to get some other statistics and observations.

“Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).”

Would you mind explaining to me,

Is a minimum of 6 times H2H enough?

i noticed small samples of H2H is going to have a lot of weightage, if averaged with a 25 games home or away stats. Hence the true odds is quite a distance compared to bookmaker odds.

Of course H2H data is really not easy to get.

Thanks again. Teck Chuan

Hi soccerwidow,

I would like to ask you something. Is there any one live bet strategy that we can follow to find value bets?

For example, if a home team is winning 1-0 at the 20 minute mark we can calculate in which games, where the score was 1-0 after 20 minutes, we had a home victory or draw or an away victory. Do you find this strategy right or can you suggest us something else?

Hi Panos,

Unfortunately, in regards of in-play betting I have to pass, at least if it is required to make a statement about specific goal scoring times and their probabilities. We simply don’t have the data. However, what I can say hand on heart is that it is possible to take value in play in the goal market.

We have just published the

2nd edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Courseand with the help of the maths and stats explained in it you will be able to calculate probabilities for both, half time and the full time goal market. Then you could chose, for example (depending on your strategy and preferences of course), matches with a high probability of scoring during the first half. These matches can be backed, say O 2.5 goals before kick-off, and then layed as soon as the first goal has been scored (without depending on the time of the goal within the first half). I’m going to address this strategy in more detail in an article to follow. It is actually very much what Dr. Slicer did with his well-known “Lay the 0-0 at HT” strategy.Can you email me the password for the Value bet detector spreadsheet? thank you.

Jo, I just emailed the password to you. 🙂

Thank you, my spreadsheet is with Asian handicap, you emailed all the passwords except for Asian Handicap. I need this one too. Thank you.

Hi,

Typically I bet on results with a probability of 70% or above, but to see value, that usually means having to ‘lay’ much more often than ‘back’.

Given the ‘high risk for little reward’ nature of lay betting and the exchange commission, is lay betting advisable as opposed to back betting, or is this likely to end in long term losses?

Thanks,

Dave

Hi Soccerwidow, I recently purchased your value bet detector without Asian handicap. I have read through many of the questions and answers by others and I have some of my own about the VBD that I’d like to ask.

1. When entering the data into the home and away tabs in the spreadsheet from the results of the last 25 matches for the home and away teams in question, should I only include the last 25 normal league matches for both the home and away teams? Or should I also include matches from the likes of the Champions league, Europa league and friendlies? (if these matches have occurred within the last 25 matches played by the home and away teams in question)

2. I read on your website the VBD is not a tool for automated betting. What exactly does that mean? Do you not recommend using the VBD on its own as a sole basis to decide what bets to take on, for the goal of long term profitable betting by placing value bets? (That is to see what the true odds are for bet types, and then to bet on the value bet selections the VBD identifies?) If not, why not? I’m also wondering, when does or how do you know when salient news renders the true odds given by the VBD inaccurate?

If the true odds given by the VBD are accurate, would long term betting on value bets given by the spreadsheet, using a level staking plan, not be a good idea in the interests of investing money into making a profit?

3. I read that you’ve said that the accuracy rate of the VBD is at +/- 5 percent. Is this on all bet types or what bet types does this include? Within the spreadsheet, are there any specific bet types that you are more confident that the given ‘true odds’ are more accurate than other bet types? Say, for example do you think that the ‘true odds’ given by the spreadsheet for the full time result are any more accurate than the ‘true odds’ given for over/under x goals?

Thanks in advance for answering my questions.

Best regards,

Jordan

Hi Jordan,

1. League matches only

2. The VC is a calculation tool which helps to make informed decisions if to be or not to bet. Unfortunately, automated betting is impossible. Otherwise, there would be by now enough computer programs developed which would do that, and the bookmakers would be probably already out of business.

I like comparing betting with running a business. There is no way of automating the set-up process for a business enterprise, even everything is known what requires a ‘good business’ and what makes a business successful. There are too many variables which permanently change.

In the article

What is Value? What is Value Betting?I explain a little what the columnsValue IandValue IIin the VC actually mean. However, I explain it in far greater detail in my course:Fundamentals of Sports Betting3. The VC calculates the past probability ranges which means that similar ranges will be expected in the future. How this exactly works, again I must strongly recommend working through my course

Fundamentals of Sports Betting.The past probability ranges which the VC shows are all accurate. How much they will be repeated in the future is another question – this is why I write +/-5%. It’s about the Standard Deviation and other correction factors. For the OU goals I have written a whole course, explaining deviations, ranges, fair odds, etc. 1×2 bets are in the pipeline to become a course.

Best wishes,

Soccerwidow

Hello Soccerwidow.In the Leagues with play-offs rounds should we also include the play-off’s matches in the last 25 matches or only the matches from regular season?

If the play-offs include teams from the same league (what I doubt) then you can include them if you wish, otherwise stick to matches from the regular season.

However, keep in mind that there is no need to complicate things… matches from the same league are absolutely sufficient.

Hello Soccerwidow

Tell me please, is it necessary to input data in the Year/Date coloumns? Isn’t enough to just enter the goals of each game?

Thanks!

Hi sarkec, no there is no need to put the year/data in the columns. This is just for beauty as we are archiving the value calculators once they are filled in, and it helps later when we need to look back at calculations.

You’re welcome. 🙂

Thanks, one more question.

I am planning to use the Lay the Draw strategy with the value calculator.

This means that if the value calculator says the 0-0 odds is 15 or higher and the draws odds is smaller than 3,5, than I lay the draw and exit the trade after the first goal was scored.

What do you think about it?

What do you think, should I use just the value calculator for calulcating 0-0 odds or it’s better if I use the last 5 seasons of data for each team?

Thanks,

Szabi

Hi Szabi, there is the statistical phenomena “regression to the mean”. This means that if the value calculator odds indicate a very low probability for the draw but the probability of the league is much higher, then the likelihood increases that it will be a draw in the next game. This is a really funny phenomena, and to understand it fully you will have patiently to wait until I have found the time and written the 1×2 course.

By the way, a draw can be also a 0-0. Therefore to speculate that there will be a goal in the game is gambling. I would leave this kind of bets alone if you don’t have further information which prove your strategy correct.

hi soccerwidow!

ive just purchased the value bet calculator and am very much a novice in excel. just wanted to know the quickest way to delete the existing odds data in the column without deletie at a time? i keep trying but end up deleting loads of the other fixed info.

many thanks

scott

i try highlighting and deleting but it just deletes the first box and nothing else

Hi Scott, the Value Calculator contains a lot of ‘protected’ cells. The reason behind this is that cells which contain formulas and calculations are not accidentally deleted by the user.

I can certainly email you the passwords for un-protecting the sheets but then you run the risk to lose the functionality if you delete something what is required for the calculator to work.

Hi, I had already bought VD last year. My question is, did you make a back-test after 2012 on the formulas? I know that at this year you had success with 274 bets, bringing around 10% with level stakes. However a lot has changed since then.

Another comment I would like to make is, that you actually really can automate this process. Many more people would be a member here if they would see the results that these bring and also if they would not have to do many manual work. The results and odds are all there in internet, you could just add a page where the picks stay and show the w/l and the yield. You wrote earlier anyways that the other facts such as injuries/financial situations and so on can be ignored. That’s why I really do not understand why you say this is impossible 🙂 Please take this as a friendly suggestion.

Hello Soccerwidow!

Do you know websites from where football data for American leagues can be downloaded?

Thanks,

Hi sarkec,

in the German version of Soccerwidow there is a post which discusses websites for (free) data download: Die besten Webseiten mit historischen Fußballdaten

(The best websites with historical football data)Just use Google Translate, and have especially a look through the comment section. There you will find helpful advice as well as a few links where data can be found.

Hope this helps. 🙂

Thanks,

One more question:)

Do you know where can I find inplay statistics?

for example: Shots on target, shots on goal, corners, etc

Thanks

Sorry, we can’t help you here. We specialize in ante post betting.

Hello!

Did you try finding value in league matches with small liqudity, for ex: Egypt 1, Czech1-2, Poland 1-2, Ukraine, etc?

Do you think it’s worthwile trying at theese leagus where are at least 6 head to head matches were between teams?

Thanks

Hi sarkec,

Poland it’s certainly worth trying, the other leagues we don’t have experience ourselves. Sorry, the market is sooooooo huge and our time soooooooo limited that we mainly concentrate on the EPL and German Bundesliga.

Hi Soccerwidow!

After the game analysing, what do you advise how many hours before the kick off should I

give the odds the spredsheet in? Or when should I bet on the market?

Best regards,

Attila

Hi Attila,

whatever time is comfortable for you personally.

For example, in 2011/12, I was writing match previews for the German Betfair blog, and for this I carried out the calculations 3 days in advance. This was necessary as I had to write the article, send it for editing before it was then published 2 days before kick-off. The only important thing about “timing” is to consistently stick to about the same periods.

It may sound crazy but there are no “influencing factors” that influence the outcome and cannot be foreseen a few days in advance. Otherwise bookmakers could not stay in the business as they offer bets well before the kick-off of a game, sometimes even weeks before the game is due to be played.

Thank you!

One more!

What do you do if you have a prediction with Detector f. e. Italian underdog away, but the HDAFU Italy show this odds range is not profitable?

The HDAFU tables are for system betting, the VC for analysing individual matches.

When you use the HDAFU tables you identify a proftable odds range, and then bet on every match within the set criteria, without analysing these matches individually.

The VC is for calculating the odds for an individual match. As already said, this tool was developed in connection with my articles for the Betfair blog in 2011/12.

What’s the difference between column Q and S?

Column Q I used for recommending dutch bets as I was writing for the Betfair blog, column S for single bets. If both, column Q and S recommend the same, it’s certainly a single bet worthwhile considering.

Hi Attila,

Your name suggests that you are speaking my language.

If you would be interested in changing ideas about Value betting, feel free to contact me at my e-mail adress:

sarkanyszabolcs91 [at] gmail.com

nyugodtan irhatsz magyarul:)

Szia!

Küldtem Mailt!

Hi,

I have purchased the value calculator with Asian handicaps. I’m not sure if I’m understanding the Asian handicaps section correctly,

Hi,

I have purchased the value calculator with Asian handicaps. I’m not sure if I’m understanding the Asian handicaps section correctly. Basically, I can enter the odds for the various handicaps for the home team, but the away side handicap odds I cannot – apparently due to the cells where the odds would be input being protected.

Is this right, or can these cells be unprotected so I can input the odds?

Thanks

P.S my previous attempt to post this message cut it off midway through. Sorry.

Column AQ calculates automatically as the ASH is a simple Yes/No bet.

So, if the odds for the home team are 2.5 (40%), then the odds for the away team have to be 1.67 (60%).

Anyway, I’m going to email you the passwords then you can unprotect the sheets and change whatever you like.

Please ask whatever you like to know, and if the question requires a whole article I will probably even reply in form of an article. 🙂

However, please try to formulate your questions as specific as possible. What exactly do you find difficult to understand?

Hi, I just bought the Value dectector, how do I change the HDA in the grey cell?

The following videos should help you master the Value Calculator spreadsheet:

Introduction to the Value Calculator

How to prepare data for easy copying and pasting into the Value Calculator

How to input best odds available to you into the Value Calculator

How to input all other data into the Value Calculator

Hi,

This may have come up already, if so, apologies.

My question would be about the teams that were promoted in to a given league in the current season (e.g. Burnley or Middlesbrough in England promoted to PL ).

When they play against any team should I use the this seasons PL matches plus the previous seasons second league matches if there is a proper amount of H2H matches? Or do I leave out these matches entirely?

Thank you.

Hi zoltan, you’ll have to leave these matches. Sorry!

Sample Size Matters!

Deviationplays a vital role in analysing football statistics. This is a measurement for the distribution of an estimator function(i.e. estimating what is likely to happen in the future). If you mix two different seasons then you increase the error rate!Hi,

Thank you for the above.

I have another question about HDA part in the Value Calculator table. At the U/O goals part you have to compare the Value 2 to the league Rel SD.

Does this mean that if I calculate the HDA Rel SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals then I can use it to compare to the Value 2 in the Value Calculator and if it fits the other 2 criteria ( high enough probability and a proper quotient) then I have value bet?

Thank you.

Hi zoltan,

betting on 1×2 results is far more complicated than just betting on over/under goals. Firstly you have with OU’s only 2 outcomes, either it’s over or it’s under. And secondly, it doesn’t matter which of the teams scores the goals. This is far more predictable that a 1×2 result.

Furthermore, 1×2 odds are often manipulated by the bookmakers who have to take public opinion into account. Our HDA simulation tables show this visually: Betting on so-called favorites constantly leads to loss for the bettor. In addition, it really makes a difference if there is a team involved in the game with a high probability to win with a lead of 2 or more goals. And there are many more things to consider.

You can certainly use the VC as a starting point and calculate the HDA SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals and check against all the criteria described in the OU course. In addition you will have to factor in the goal differences.

Good luck! 🙂

Hi,

Another question. Could you please explain how the O/U section work in the VC table?

I see the real odds for Over X goals on the right side but I see no Value 2 for that only a value 1. Should I calculate it by hand and compare it to the Value 1 or there is another method to find the Over X bets?

Thank you.

Hi Zoltan,

you will have to calculate it by hand (or personalise the VC and e.g. add an additional column with some formulas).

Hello,

I bought the VC, but while changing H2H stats, i was asked to re-type a pw. Could you guys please e-mail it to me, so I can edit the H2H section.

thanks in advance

Hi Jaysmoove, I just emailed the passwords to you.

Good luck with the VC!

Hello Soccerwidow,

For the H2H data, if the Cup games involved ET and penalty, does the full time score includes Extra Time and penalty as well? or just the 90 minutes score?

Thank you

Hi JW,

Just the 90 minute full-time scores – don’t include extra-time or penalties. The league games we look to analyse with the Value and Probability Calculator are purely 90 minute affairs and we therefore compare on a like-for-like basis.

Good luck and thanks for the question.

My question is in regards to calculating the Yield and Profitability Quotient for a potential Lay Bet.

Value I will be a negative number due to the best odds being less than the true odds. This would lead to the Quotient also being a negative number.

When calculating the Quotient for Lay Bets should I ignore the negative in Value I (assuming of course that Value II is good) in order to determine the Quotient?

Hi Darren, the formula for the mathematical advantage

(Value I)returns a positive number if the market odds are higher that the Zero odds, and it returns a negative number if the market odds are smaller than the Zero odds. If it’s positive it’s a potential back bet, and if it’s negative a potential lay bet.Sorry that I didn’t point this out in greater detail in the O/U course. This is certainly something I will have to review when overhauling the course.

So, if the formula for Value I returns a negative figure then, in order to judge if it’s a worthwhile bet to consider, you’ll need to continue your calculations using the absolute value

(remove the negative sign). Otherwise you use everything else exactly as explained in the course. Try to find bets with the highest profitability (Value I) achieved by an acceptable Yield (Value II) – O/U course, pages 124++Thanks for the clarification Soccerwidow.

You’ve a great site, fabulous resources and the products I’ve purchased are exceptional.

Thank you

Hi Soccer Widow, I love your back-story and it has helped my wife to be more accepting of my attempt at mapping out a betting strategy that’s profitable.

I recently purchased the VC with ASH and am enjoying exploring its features and functions.

I have tried to trawl the previous comments to avoid asking a repeated question, but just to clarify, do we remove the league h2h instances from the home and away tabs seeing as they will be covered in the h2h section? Or do we leave them in? Which way does the VC’s calculations benefit from?

Also I see people requesting the password to change the away team’s ASH odds as they are calculated automatically and usually different to the bookies odds, as well as other modifications. May I request these passwords please? 🙂

Keep up the good work and I’m sure I’ll further pick your brains in the future.

Hi Sam,

Thanks for your questions.

In the head-to-head tab, definitely include all relevant, competitive games between the two teams at the home ground in question, even if this means duplicating one, or possibly two (unlikely to be more), results with the home/away tabs.

The head-to-head tab acts as a correction factor to each team’s last 25 league home or away results, and if some of these have been against each other, and/or they’ve played additional cup fixtures at the same venue, then these are valid statistics, which bring a little more focus to the fixture in question.

Retaining the duplicate information therefore adds more relevancy to the set of data we are using to form our opinions.

It may well be that the two teams in question have played each other more times in the same time scale as our data set than any other team shown in their last 25 home or away games.

This is recent, relevant information and needs to be included, even if the duplicated data makes little or no difference to the eventual calculated values.

You will see a difference when the difference matters, and this could be the difference between a positive or negative bet value, or enough of a difference to push the yield of a bet into your portfolio (when otherwise you would have discarded it).

Regarding the passwords, we don’t give them out publicly, but I have sent you the list by personal mail.

Thanks for your time and trouble contacting us again, Sam.

Hi again Right Winger,

Thanks again for your reply and support. I’m persevering with the VBC, mixed results but I’m starting to record my results better with cluster groups so I’ll have a better idea of my progress eventually.

I’ve been once again checking the helpful comments above to ensure I don’t re-ask a previous question, but just to confirm:

1. When including results for the league history, you recommend excluding any type of play off game? Does this include relegation games? Then with the H2H history anything other than Club Friendlies?

2. I’m just curious as to what sentinel checks yourself or the Soccer Widow would undergo before placing a bet? I know this is something you encourage us to work out ourselves, but to help formulate my own approach I am curious as to your approach? Do you guys solely go by the VBC calculations, or do you have a quick glance at recent form, injuries, weather, etc?

3. Is there any value in your opinion in using other VBC calculations to support a market you might be interested in placing a bet on, eg favouring an under 2.5 market’s value and looking to the fulltime score calculations to support this decision’s probable outcome?

4. Are there any markets that you wouldn’t mix as a general rule, I know this is obvious in some cases, but I was just after you opinion.

I understand, appreciate and commend you guys on instilling us with the confidence to come up with our own system and that you don’t give out ‘betting advice’. So if any questions I’ve posted cross that line I completely understand, I’m just after ideas to help formulate my own personal approach.

I am determined to make the VBC work for me and have faith it will pay off long term and I believe the more I investigate and tweak, the greater my success will be. Sorry to say that this may potentially mean harassing you more 😉

Many thanks.

Hi Sam,

the VC is for League Games with H2H history and as the names implies for ‘league games’ only. Therefore do not include in the H2H history play off games, relegation games, club friendlies, or anything else – league games only!

No, we don’t glance at recent form, injuries, weather, etc. … This was actually not even possible when we were writing the match previews for the Betfair blog. We had to publish the preview articles 2-3 days before kick-off, no chance to know the ‘weather’ or ‘suspensions’. Do you really think a bookmaker sets odds based on team news, injuries, suspensions, recent form, etc.? How can they possibly do that if they publish their odds, sometimes weeks before a match, and not only make profits and stay in business but even grow?

To your third question… Yes, there is value in using other VC calculations to support a market you might be interested in placing a bet on and looking to other calculations to support a decision. I don’t think that you ever bought our

Over/Under betting course. Did you?The course shows how to use the Home-Draw-Away odds to cluster teams into groups of perceived strength. Both, the ‘Cluster Tables‘ as well as the VC are explained in great leangth in the course. Although we don’t look in the course how to utilise the VC by using other calculations to support a decision but we look at the ‘Value I’ (expected profitability) and ‘Value 2’ (expected yield) in great detail.

To your fourth question… Be careful and do not mix too many markets. It is highly advisable to concentrate to become a specialist, e.g. for Over/Under betting. Avoid developing to a jack of all trades and master of none! 🙂

Hi Soccerwidow

I purchased the value calculator back in summer 2013 but I’ve just lost all files on my computer!

Can you see if you still have a record of my purchase (I know, a long shot) and if so, can you arrange to resend?

My email address should be the same at the time of purchase if that helps.

Thank you

Hello Jonathan,

I have just emailed you in more detail, but for the sake of everyone else, we charge a fee of £10 to retrieve old products that have gone beyond their 30-day download limit.

This is purely because it is a time-consuming exercise to find the original sale in our online store or manual records and then reactivate the product (which may even be defunct by now).

A message to everyone – please back-up your purchases! We can save you if you do lose them, but it will cost you a fee for our time! 🙂

Hello Soccerwidow,

At 7 July 2013, you wrote that there is an update of the spreadsheet on the way which would identify even more accurate picks. I’m interested in buying the spreadsheet, but would like to buy the latest/best/most accurate version. The first replies on this topic were at early October 2012. Since there has been almost 5 years in between, I just wanted to make sure the version in the article is the most upgraded version. Or should I look for this upgraded version in another article?

Kind regards

Hi Bert, since the 7 July 2013 happened a lot, and the most devastating event was that I’ve had a severe accident in this year. It took me more than two years to recover and therefore many things which were originally planned haven’t been addressed.

It was October 2015 that I finally succeeded to review the Over/Under course in German and then to translate the course into English which was then published in June 2016.

Therefore, sorry, there isn’t an update of the Value Calculator and unfortunately, there won’t be for a while as I’m currently writing on a 1×2 course.

One thing at the time, Rome also hasn’t been built in one day. 🙂

I can completely understand that under the circumstances you were not able to do the things you planned. However, if you do update the spreadsheet, will customers who purchased the former spreadsheet get the new version? (Just a question)

Hi Bert, if we ever update the spreadsheet then of course, yes, customers who bought the old version will get a huge discount on the new version.

For example, as we published the updated version of the course, buyers of the 1st edition paid 49£ less

(this was the price for the 1st edition).However, it will take probably another year before we get to an update of the current VC as the current version works just fine for everybody who gets their head round it.

By the way, I explained the use of the VC in length

in the coursefor its use on Over/Under bets. You may consider purchasing the course together with the VC.Hello,

I gave the spreadsheet a try on the Manchester City – Liverpool fixture (Sept 9, 2017). I filled the home, away and h2h data in, also the Odds my bookmaker offered.

I then looked to what the automatic back/lay recommendations were. As I cannot access a betting exchange, I can’t lay bets so I only look for “back” recommendations. Generally, this would appear for when the true odds are lower than the bookmaker odds.

But….

– there is no back recommendation in column S. This column is for automatic recommendations. However, for a DNB bet on Liverpool, true odds are 2.38 while bookmaker odds are 3.15. Thus, I expect a positive value. Nothing shows up automatically so I type “Back” in cell R12. Now Value II gives 32.4%, which sounds really nice to me. But when I have to type “Back” manually in column R because nothing shows up automatically in column S, even for a nice 32.4% value bet, this kinda defeats the purpose of this automatically value detector..

– there are only “B” spotted in column Q for under 4.5, under 5.5 and under 6.5.. I don’t find it worth betting on odds 1.09 (under 5.5), but when I type “Back” in column R, just to get a “Back” in column S, the bookmaker probability in column U shows 8.3% .. 1/1.09 however is 91.7%. So the probability is for backing over 5.5??

– For this certain bet (under 5.5, when I type “Back” in column R), the Value II in column X is negative (??), even though the bookmaker odds are higher than the true odds.

These are just a few of my questions, but I guess that will do for now.

Do you want me to email you a copy of the filled in spreadsheet for ManCity-Liverpool?

Kind regards

Hi Bert,

the automatic bet recommendations formulas check various conditions that produce more reliable bets

(within the expected cluster)than others. For example, you write that the DNB bet on Liverpool had true odds of 2.38 and the bookmaker odds were 3.15. You are right, on the first glance there seem to be a positive value of 32.4%, but this is so far out of the range of expected odds(taking deviation into consideration)that there is something in this match what bookmakers know and the formulaic approach doesn’t factor in. Bets who are deviating too much from the expectations produce long-term losses; that is why the VC doesn’t flag them up.For the Over/Under bets you need to type for example “Back U 5.5” or “Back O 5.5” and so on; then something will show up.

The ‘Q’ column uses other criteria than the ‘S’ column to flag up bets. Therefore you will see sometimes bet recommendations flagged up in both columns, sometimes only in one. If both flag up, these are bets who will be probably more reliable than others.

What you must not forget is that whatever flags up there are never 100% sure bet recommendations. However, what flags up will be producing a close match to the expected distribution. For example, if a bet flag up with ‘L’ in the ‘Q’ column and ‘Lay’ in the ‘S’ column then please keep in mind that this isn’t going to be a 100% secure lay but carrying out many bets of this type you will come pretty close to the expected ‘hit rate’. Say in this example, the expected hit rate were 78% then you should see a hit rate of approx. 8 out of 10 bets winning.

Do you know my course

Fundamentals of Sports Betting? This may be a product you may consider of purchasing as it explains bookmaker maths in great depth and detail. You may find the course very helpful! 🙂Hey guys,

I’m just testing out the value calculator. I’m looking at Ligue 2 in France.

The trouble is that I can’t find the half-time scorelines from the 2009/10 season. They don’t have them on either betexplorer.com or soccerbase.com as far as I can tell.

Any advice? How do you normally deal with bets on Ligue 2?

Hi Audiendi, you can also try oddsportal.com. However, if you don’t find the stats then I would recommend just leave the half-time bets alone.

How we normally deal with bets on Ligue 2? We normally don’t bet; easy as that. 🙂 No time! And I personally, no real interest. I feel much more intrigued by the maths and being able to predict the outcomes than the betting itself. You simply cannot imagine how time-consuming it is to run this website

(and there is even a German sister site); write course books and do all the research which goes with it. It was only the HDA tables, my husband tried for a couple of seasons to prove to ourselves that they work.Another thing is that there are sooooooooooo many different leagues in this world, and each of them having something special about them that we simply cannot know an answer to everything.

What you say makes a lot of sense. Particularly the part about comparing apples with apples. I’m going to carry on testing the value calculator against random matches and studying up with the Fundamentals of Sports Betting.

Then, depending how quickly I get my head around that, I’ll move on to the various HDAFU tables and actual betting.

I seem to recall one of the guys who regularly comments mentioning using the value calculator as the first requirement for value testing. Then he added some other requirement (perhaps some slight alternation he had made with the spreadsheet?) and when both tests implied value, he would proceed. I’ll look back through the the comments section to try to find out exactly what he did and how how. It may be superfluous but it’s food for thought.

I also have to say this has gotten me more interested in maths again. I wasn’t naturally brilliant at it at school. But I was good as long as I did lots of homework. That is, until Year 11 (then I got too bogged down by the workload of other subjects and fell behind). But this has given me a newfound interest in Calculus and probability. The more exact nature of the answer is somewhat reassuring. You can get that with maths, at least.

Kind regards.

Hi,

Can I have the password to unlock the sheet?

Thanks!