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True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History


In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.

True Odds Calculator & Value Bets Detector


League Games
with H2H History


Price: £29.90
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Price: £19.90
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.

‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.

Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.

It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.

The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.

Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:




Supporting Videos

Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.

Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.

Frequently asked questions:

Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?

Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).

How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?

This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.

At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).

Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?

Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.

Exactly which historical records do I have to input?

The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.

What knowledge is required?

You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.


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Last Update: 29 August 2012

Categories:Odds Calculation S T O R E



238 Responses to “True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History”

  1. zoltan
    23 January 2017 at 9:00 pm #

    Hi,

    This may have come up already, if so, apologies.

    My question would be about the teams that were promoted in to a given league in the current season (e.g. Burnley or Middlesbrough in England promoted to PL ).

    When they play against any team should I use the this seasons PL matches plus the previous seasons second league matches if there is a proper amount of H2H matches? Or do I leave out these matches entirely?

    Thank you.

    • Soccerwidow
      24 January 2017 at 9:20 am #

      Hi zoltan, you’ll have to leave these matches. Sorry!

      Sample Size Matters!

      Deviation plays a vital role in analysing football statistics. This is a measurement for the distribution of an estimator function (i.e. estimating what is likely to happen in the future). If you mix two different seasons then you increase the error rate!

  2. zoltan
    26 January 2017 at 10:47 pm #

    Hi,
    Thank you for the above.

    I have another question about HDA part in the Value Calculator table. At the U/O goals part you have to compare the Value 2 to the league Rel SD.

    Does this mean that if I calculate the HDA Rel SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals then I can use it to compare to the Value 2 in the Value Calculator and if it fits the other 2 criteria ( high enough probability and a proper quotient) then I have value bet?

    Thank you.

    • Soccerwidow
      27 January 2017 at 9:08 am #

      Hi zoltan,

      betting on 1×2 results is far more complicated than just betting on over/under goals. Firstly you have with OU’s only 2 outcomes, either it’s over or it’s under. And secondly, it doesn’t matter which of the teams scores the goals. This is far more predictable that a 1×2 result.

      Furthermore, 1×2 odds are often manipulated by the bookmakers who have to take public opinion into account. Our HDA simulation tables show this visually: Betting on so-called favorites constantly leads to loss for the bettor. In addition, it really makes a difference if there is a team involved in the game with a high probability to win with a lead of 2 or more goals. And there are many more things to consider.

      You can certainly use the VC as a starting point and calculate the HDA SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals and check against all the criteria described in the OU course. In addition you will have to factor in the goal differences.

      Good luck! 🙂

  3. zoltan
    28 January 2017 at 11:26 pm #

    Hi,

    Another question. Could you please explain how the O/U section work in the VC table?

    I see the real odds for Over X goals on the right side but I see no Value 2 for that only a value 1. Should I calculate it by hand and compare it to the Value 1 or there is another method to find the Over X bets?

    Thank you.

    • Soccerwidow
      2 February 2017 at 11:36 am #

      Hi Zoltan,

      you will have to calculate it by hand (or personalise the VC and e.g. add an additional column with some formulas).

  4. Jaysmoove
    12 February 2017 at 9:50 pm #

    Hello,

    I bought the VC, but while changing H2H stats, i was asked to re-type a pw. Could you guys please e-mail it to me, so I can edit the H2H section.

    thanks in advance

    • Soccerwidow
      13 February 2017 at 8:02 am #

      Hi Jaysmoove, I just emailed the passwords to you.

      Good luck with the VC!

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