In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
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WITHOUT Asian Handicap
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Hi Soccerwidow,
I don’t understand why I get negative Value II in Over/Under X goals when I have higher “best” odds in column P than “true” odds in column O. I type “back” in column R and Value II is negative. In other cases I have automatic “B” in column Q or/and “Back U 3.5” in column S and Value II is positive, but if I type “back” in column R, Value II turns negative.
And I don’t understand what “NO” bets Betfair mean in column Z?
This is a little “bug” in the spreadsheet. You have to type exactly in the respective line, either:
Back O 1.5, Back O 2.5, etc.
or
Back U 1.5, Back U 2.5, etc.
Just “Back” returns the opposite – the spreadsheet doesn’t know what to do.
Sorry for the confusion, it’s only an Excel spreadsheet.
The Over/Under calculations are made for U 1.5, U 2.5, …, U 6.5
The column “Z” are the calcualated prices for O 1.5, O 2.5, etc.
Sorry, I was not very accurate with my question about column Z. I understand it’s for O 1.5 etc., but I meant why it’s called “”NO” bets” in row 18 and “Betfair” in in row 19?
Regarding the same type of table for “win to nil”, “clean sheet” and “win both halves” markets, “Real” odds in column Y correspond “true” odds of “Win to nil”- No, CS-No, WBH-No?
Hi Jo,
The VC was developed whilst I was writing my match previews for Betfair. Therefore this heading “NO Bets Betfair” in the VC.
If you use Betfair for betting then you open for example the “Under 1.5 Goals” tab. If you bet on “Yes” this means you bet on under, “No” is over.
Sorry for the confusion,
Soccerwidow
Japanese league is about to start, it has 3 stages, the 3rd one is play offs. I prepare manually historical results data sheets (the same like from football data co uk site). Should I include 3rd round play offs in my own made sheets? I’m not sure about it, because 3rd round play offs doesn’t look like a round of regular season to me.
Hello, I’ve purchased the Value Detector several months ago and I am very pleased. It helped me understand how vitally important it is that absolutely all the bets that one places contain mathematical value compared to the odds at which they are placed.
However, I made one very important tweak to it – it now makes THREE separate checks to the so called “true odds”:
– the first with the default 50/50 weighing of the h2h results with the last 25 matches
– the second with 66.7/33.3 weight advantage to the recent 25 matches of bot teams and
– the third with 100% advantage to the recent 25 matches (that is, it completely omits the direct H2H results and calculates the true odds only using the recent matches)
Once these three checks have been complete, I delete the 10 “oldest” matches of both teams and run the three checks once again, but with only 15 recent matches for both teams (this way i give some importance to the more recent form)
ONLY IF a bet passes all SIX checks (the calculated true odds are lower than what is offered on betfair or bet365), then I will begin consider betting on it.
So far, it has been a nice ride, with 280 bets on soccer and a ROI of 7,5%. I have been doing this for 3 months now.
My question to you, Soccerwidow, is when do you think you can say that you have found a winning strategy? How many successful bets do you need to make in order for their count to be a viable statistical example?
hello rado , im interested in knowing how did your betting season go ?
Hi Rado,
We are pleased to hear about your success and a yield of 7.5% is very respectable indeed.
Higher yields are possible when looking at outcomes with higher odds and the underdogs market is of especial interest.
Bookmakers tend to overprice underdogs in the vast majority of games to encourage money away from the favourites, which punters (unfortunately) see as a safer bet.
You would be surprised at how often the underdogs win and yields over 50% are perennially available in certain leagues.
If you go after these opportunities, of course you have to be emotionally immune to the longer losing streaks that naturally attach.
280 bets is a fair sample size. Our ‘rule of thumb’ tends to be 500 bets or more before you can say it is a statistically significant number.
I would be interested to hear from you again once you reach that milestone.
As for tweaking the calculator, well done! It is impossible for us to design one for everyone’s individual taste, and all we can do is provide the tools that make it possible to achieve a successful strategy.
But we can say hand on heart that winning at sports betting is an art – you just have to master the basics before you can begin applying your own thoughts and ideas to the canvass.
Thanks for your valued comment and we hope your run of success continues!
Re: Jo 25 February 2016…
Hello Jo,
You are right, we leave out the play-off stages in every league. They are not ‘normal’ league games and are more akin to cup games, which are vastly more unpredictable.
Stick to stage 1 and 2 in Japan.
Can I use this tool in betting in asianbookie.com? I have no knowledge of odds format. I only know asian handicap betting. May I know can I learn step by step in your website or in your store? Thank u.
Hi Zinphyo,
If you have no knowledge about odds calculation then the ideal place to start is the Odds Calculation Course on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals. (Please note, there is an updated and far more comprehensive version of this due for release in the next 2-3 weeks, and anyone buying the original version on sale at the moment will be invited to acquire the new version upon launch for a much reduced price)
The Value Calculator is a product for people with some more advanced knowledge. You need already to be comfortable with terms such as “probabilities”, odds conversion, and so on.
hello soccer widow, i would like to thank you and congratulate you and your team on the effort put to educate bettors.i purchased the under over x goals course a week ago , though i ve been using the value detector for 2 years now (which i bought a long time ago). i did the home and away clusters for all the italian teams (the last five years between the teams that competed in every previous year) as explained in the under over x goals, and i realised that when i calculate the average of any true odd, it differs a lot between the true odds of the clusters and the odds of the value detector.
example: AC Milan is playing Roma this saturday 14/05/16, and the value detector sheet (containing the last 25 matches and 11 h2h last 10 years) is giving AC Milan home win “2.93” as true odds , while the last 5 years clusters for AC Milan home and Roma away, is giving AC Milan home true odds “2.26”.
This is a huge mathematical difference,so which one is more accurate and which procedure should i employ?
thanks for your help 🙂
Hi Ely, these questions of yours are being addressed and answered in great depth the 2nd edition of the course. You are not the first to ask. 🙂 The course is finished, and we are currently adding the last finishing touch such as formatting and preparing it for publishing.
As soon as it’s published we will inform all the buyers of the 1st edition and offer the upgrade.
hello,
i purchased the under over course , and the value detector 2 years ago.
im curious to know how can i estimate the error rate in my clusters ? (i idid the last 5 years clusters for the premier leagues , but i need to be more precise in order to be okay with my betting).
Hi Ely, another question which has been addressed and answered in great depth the 2nd edition of the course.
To estimate the error rate standard deviation needs to be calculated. How? Again, I have to refer to the forthcoming course, this topic being covered over 20+ pages. No short answer possible, sorry.
Hi again! As promised, I return with the results after 500 bets using the Value Detector. Things have been running smoothly, except for a prolonged losing streak in the 50-59% probabilty cluster that has cost me about 50% of the winnings last month.
My ROI has therefore suffered a drop, but it still is at 6,1%, which is not too bad. All in all, i have placed 506 bets, of which 306 were successful, which is 60,5% accuracy.
The bets that I make are primarily backing the home team, backing over 2,5 and over 1,5 goals and sometimes backing 1X and BTTS. I have had continued misfortune in the under 2,5 and under 3,5 goals markets and have since abandoned them. Another promising field is the “Draw no bet” for the home team, which offers nice odds and reduced risk (when the game ends in a draw, you lose nothing).
By placing these bets, I have been able to win about two minimum wages of the country where I live in each of the past four months, which is pretty solid, I think.
I have one question. How about calculating the value of the matches of EURO 2016 which is right around the corner? Obviously, I can’t use the value detector, because the teams don’t have head to head stats. So, how many matches of the two teams that play a particular game should I take under consideration? How do I calculate the “true odds” and how have you done it 4 years ago at EURO 2012? 🙂
Thanks and I will be returning after I pass the 1000 bets mark around end of the year.
Hi Rado, the Euro 2016 is a real challenge to calculate. There are so many teams which play in this competition for the first time, or have played there but decades ago. Either no data available, or hardly usable.
You can use the VC for teams like France and Germany, but the problem here is that for Germany it is going to be an away game, and for France a home game. And are they actually in the same group? They are not. Bad luck! Should you actually find two teams in the same group with enough H2H’s then you will also have to increase the number of matches to 30 in the Home and Away tabs. You may be lucky and find a couple of matches which can be calculated. But really, is it worth your time? I would recommend to leave the Euro alone, betting wise. Just enjoy the games!
Another thing, as you have been placing 506 bets and monitoring them properly. Would you mind to sort them in probability clusters of 5% and count the losing streaks and the observed hit rate per cluster group? Please also show how many bets there were per cluster. We have an article The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks which would certainly benefit from a real life example.
Unfortunately you won’t be able to upload a screenshot, but you can email the screenshot to me for upload and I will add it to your comment. This would be great! Thanks!