Demystifying Betting Myths
Statistics are the language of betting; learn to speak fluently, and the market will reveal its secrets.

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Closeup of bunch of skeleton keys / Nahaufnahme eines Schlüsselbundes

The Ten Golden Rules of Gambling

If you survive the assault course of these 10 Commandments of Gambling then you may have a chance of being successful with your betting activities… There are no more than ten “golden rules” for gambling success and it’s...
Woman holding bank notes close to her face with a calculator and bills in the background / Frau hält Banknoten an ihr Gesicht mit Taschenrechner und Rechnungen im Hintergrund

The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping

One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Red pen on a calculator beside a piggy bank - save on costs, expenses, and budget / Roter Stift auf einem Taschenrechner neben einem Sparschwein - Kosten sparen und Ausgaben reduzieren

Arbitrage between Bookmakers and Cross Market Arbitrage

(1) Arbitrage between Two Bookmakers in One Betting Market This is the classic form of sports arbitrage (sure bets) in football betting. The arbitrage opportunity relies on at least two bookmakers evaluating the same event differently, each...
A pile of white dice / Haufen weißer Würfel

What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?

A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size. This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...
Soccer ball on cell phone; broken glass mobile phone / Fußball bricht durchs Handy; viele Glasscherben

Website Traffic Report: Soccerwidow / Fussballwitwe – October 2013

It is not just website owners who are interested in how their site performs or how much traffic their website receives. Concrete information about website traffic, visitor numbers, and page views is also particularly interesting for agencies...
Filling in a football betting coupon / Hand beim Ausfüllen eines Fußballwettscheins

The Birth of a Problem Gambler

I recently caught up with an old friend of ours who used to passionately follow EPL football and bet on matches hoping to make a fortune. He staked ‘real’ money. Sometimes a lot of it! We had a great chat, which he allowed me to record....
Chimpanzee in thoughtful pose with finger in mouth / Schimpanse in nachdenklicher Pose mit Finger im Mund

The Mind of a Problem Gambler

This is Part 2 of my interview with DM, a self-confessed problem gambler… I have to admit that although it was hugely interesting to dive so deep into the mindset of a hardcore gambler, it was also a little harrowing. He undoubtedly considered...
Wicked nun wielding a ruler ready to hand out some discipline! / Übelgelaunte Nonne schwingt ein Lineal in drohender Pose

The Reform of a Problem Gambler

This is the last part of my interview with DM, who is no longer a problem gambler… Beware of false beliefs; only knowledge is power SW: “Did you make any strategy breakthroughs with your football betting?” DM: “Yes,...
Screenshot from the Value Bet Calculator video tutorial how to input historical match and H2H data

Video Tutorial: Input Historical Football Data and H2H Results into Value Bet Detector

Our darling Soccerwidow is at it again with another eastern European rendition in our series of video tutorials showing you how to input historical football data into the Value Bet Detector for league games with head-to-head history. Enjoy the...
Video tutorial on how to download data spreadsheets from football-data.co.uk and sort them for functionality

Video Tutorial: Download Historical Football Data and Sort for Functionality in Excel

We are often asked for advice and shortcuts on how speed up the process of filling-in data in our various Value Bet Detectors such as the League Matches with Head-to-Head History spreadsheet. Here is our very own Soccerwidow with some Excel...