Cluster Table Screenshot - Betting Table Tab
Soccerwidow’s Cluster Tables are an essential tool for identifying value bets and creating a profitable portfolio in the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals market.
They rely on dividing historical data (previous five complete seasons) into clusters according to the “HO/AO quotient” to provide a reliable comparison with future matches under analysis.
Betting odds are a mixture of statistical fact and public opinion (people voting with their money) as to what the likely outcome of an event will be.
Introducing the HO/AO quotient allows us to to ‘cluster’ groups of past matches and with that, to quantify the mutual relationship between the number of goals scored in matches and the strength of the teams involved. (The HO/AO quotients are a practical application of corellation).
This allows us to put an upcoming game into perspective.
In other words, we use the group of past matches bearing HO/AO quotients most similar to the match under analysis in order to make more accurate assessments about its likely number of goals.
The number of goals scored↔team strength relationship is a hugely strong correlation known to the bookmakers and used to a greater or lesser degree when setting their opening odds.
However, as public opinion (market pressure) leads to ‘errors’ in market pricing (odds), using the knowledge of the correlation allows us to spot ‘value’.
Following on from our Betting with Cluster Tables introductory article, here are the four simple steps needed to calculate pinpoint zero odds for intelligent value betting decisions in the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals market:
- Find the Home and Away Odds
- Calculate the HO/AO Quotient
- Record the Cluster Table Results
- Perform the Final Calculations
We shall look at each of these steps using the English Premier League as example.
Let’s look in fine detail at the EPL match: West Ham vs. Southampton from 31st March, 2018.
Step 1 – Find the Home and Away Odds
One of the most important components of the Cluster Tables is the HO/AO quotient (home odds divided by away odds), hence the need for both odds before referring to the tables.
To find the latest, up-to-date odds for any fixture you can employ bookmakers or betting exchanges of your choice, or make use of an odds comparison site. For the sake of our example, we are using OddsPortal.com as they are the only site showing time-stamped odds to support our illustrations.
The screenshot on the left is a composite image showing both the home and away odds just before this game started. Click on the image to enlarge it in a new tab.
Betsafe offered a price of 2.90 on West Ham six minutes before kick-off, whilst 5Dimes gave best price of 2.73 on Southampton seconds before the start.
Despite the multitude of odds movements throughout the entire ante post market, you will find in the vast majority of cases that the relationship between the home and away odds will stay pretty much the same throughout the ante post market.
Usually, the HO/AO quotient locates the match firmly between the two ends of a cluster, and the quotient tends to remain in that same cluster group no matter how the odds move during the lead up to kick-off.
This means that the timing of the analysis is not critical; you can perform it at any period during the ante post market before the match kicks-off. And of course, bet placement timing then also becomes just a matter of finding market odds containing value.
Timing only becomes an issue in the very rare event that the HO/AO quotient places the match very close to one of the ends of the cluster range for either team. It is then always wise to check odds close to kick-off to ensure that you have the match in the right HO/AO clusters for both teams.
Most of our tables are based on Pinnacle bookmaker odds, and for these leagues, you need only find which odds Pinnacle is offering at that time.
A small number of our tables use the highest audited bookmaker odds from a select panel included at Oddsportal. For these leagues, you will need to find the highest home and away odds being offered from a small range of bookmakers at the time.
Okay, we have our home and away odds – onto the next step…
Step 2 – Calculate the HO/AO Quotient
Easy! Take a calculator or enter the figures into a spreadsheet and just divide the home odds by the away odds to provide a quotient.
In this case, the quotient is: 2.90 divided by 2.73 = 1.0623 (rounded-up)
Step 3 – Identify the Relevant Cluster and Percentage Result
Cross-checking any team’s HO/AO quotient against their statistical percentages for any of the over/under 0.5 to 6.5 options in any match under analysis is extremely easy.
Within the Cluster Table for the appropriate league, click on the Betting Tables tab. This reveals a one-touch spreadsheet for obtaining both team’s results.
Here is the table of figures for West Ham (click on the image below to enlarge it in a new tab – and then use the magnifier to enlarge again if necessary):
To change the team, simply click on the orange team name in the top left-hand corner to access the drop-down menu of all teams with five-season data sets.
By clicking on the team you are looking for, the figures in the table will automatically revert to those of that team.
The first half of the sheet contains the home figures: Summary at the top, Over ‘X’ Goals, and then Under ‘X’ Goals. The bottom three panels are the away results.
For this example, let’s decide to go for the most popular ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ bet.
For West Ham’s home figures, using the second panel from the top, you can see on the left-hand side in dark blue, their dedicated HO/AO clusters.
The HO/AO quotient we have calculated is 1.0623 and this fits neatly into the third cluster down. Looking under ‘Running Total Probability’, we simply record the percentage figure, in this case, 73.9%.
Here are West Ham’s top two panels with the relevant cluster row and percentage result for Over 2.5 Goals highlighted:
And after changing the team name, here are Southampton’s away figures in their fourth and fifth panels:
You will also note that the HO/AO quotient fitted very firmly inside the relevant cluster group of both teams, and not too close to its edges (West Ham’s cluster group was 0.7301-1.9345, whilst Southampton’s was 0.8211-1.3880).
Again, you will rarely encounter situations that will need monitoring – most games will see the same cluster groups used despite the odds movements throughout the ante post market. This means that neither analysing nor placing the bets is time-sensitive, and both exercises need not be performed at the same time either.
Next Page: Step 4 – Do the Maths!
Approximately how many bets would you need to do before you would expect to see a positive ROI?
I have done 20 bets and I am – 3 points, I haven’t become emotional about it yet because I am using very low stakes on purpose.
I am only backing or laying o2.5 at odds about 1.5 to 2.5
I just want to know whats a reasonable expectation?
30 50 75 100 bets?
Hi Andrew,
you should normally see a positive ROI pretty straight away; of course, only if you have chosen bets with value and you don’t start with a losing streak straight away.
Have a look at my reports I did in real time in 2012 when I was writing match previews for Betfair Germany: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012
Of course, nobody can predict with certainty how bumpy the ride is going to be and it depends a lot of the probabilities you are playing.
The rule of thumb is: The lower the probabilities the bumpier your ride, the more difficult on your nerves.
Today I backed o2.5 on st johnstone v aberdeen @ 2.4 I did calculate the zero odds to be 1.71 so it seemed like an extremely good value bet.
I calculated ho/ao as: 3.95/2.18 = 1.8119
However do you think I made some kind of error, I think I may have done seeing as there was such a large discrepancy in available odds and zero odds?
Hi Andy,
you probably didn’t make a mistake as there are occasional discrepancies like that in the market. However, finding a value bet, of course, doesn’t mean that each bet wins.
Hi
How many cluster tables do you have on offer right now/ you offer cluster tables for how many/which leagues and whats the price for each?
Hello Ti,
Please refer to our online store for all the information you need regarding the Over/Under ‘x’ Goals Cluster Tables to help you identify value bets from the full range of over/under 0.5 to 6.5 goals.
We offer 15 top flight ‘Winter Leagues’ and 10 ‘Summer Leagues’, which should be enough for a substantial portfolio of bets throughout the entire calendar year.
The league bundles you will find in the store offer the best value, but if you want to ‘mix and match’ you can also apply discount using the discount codes under the heading ‘Multiple Item Discounts’.
Also, don’t forget the HDAFU Tables! Again the same 25 leagues are offered with similar bundles and discount codes.
Happy shopping!
Hi Soccerwidow
A question if I may….I purchased the course back a few years ago, and as you see above, I backtested a few seasons and had positive results. But I got sidetracked with the HDAFU tables and never pursued over/under goal betting.
I feel like having a crack at over/under goal betting and have re-read the course book to refresh my memory on how the cluster tables work in practice and make sure I’m performing the calculations and selecting bets correctly. Most likely I will be purchasing some tables before the leagues resume for the next season.
I noticed one thing in the article that differs to the method taught in the course book, and was wondering if it matters or not.
In the course book, we obtain the HO/AO ratio and then look up that cluster for the one and away team and note down the percentages/zero odds for the different goal line bets for each team. Then we compare those odds to the bookmaker odds and where we see odds that are greater than our zero odds for both teams, we consider that to be a bet to explore further.
Example – O/U 2.5 Goals.
Team A (Home) – Over 2.5 goals, 60%, zero odds of 1.66
Team B (Away) – Over 2.5 goals, 55%, zero odds of 1.82
Say the odds for the over 2.5 bet at the bookmaker was 1.9, then we would be seeing higher odds at the bookmaker for both teams. The average of the 2 teams zero odds is 57.5, giving a final zero odds figure of 1.74. The odds on offer of 1.9 are higher than the zero odds, and for arguments sake lets say that it also is higher then the upper threshold of the fair odds range, so a value bet.
If we took the example in the article, we have one team with 73.9% for over 2.5 goals and the other team with 33.3% for over 2.5 goals i.e team has zero odds of 1.35 and 3 respectively. Individually only one team has zero odds lower than bookmaker odds of 2.27, but combined, the zero odds (1.8) are lower than odds offered by the bookmaker.
So I suppose my question is, when calculating bets, should we be safer looking for situations when both teams are displaying zero odds for a particular goal line (as in the course book) that are better than the bookmaker odds? Or in your opinion does it not matter if one team in isolation doesn’t show value, but combined they do?
In my mind, when both teams show zero odds better than the bookies odds, it appears both teams are pulling in the same direction, whereas in the situation where one team doesn’t show zero odds better then the books, it appears like they are a bit of a dead weight.
In your experiment you posted here, how were you performing the calculations?
Thanks in advance for your response.
Hi Simon,
many thanks for your questions and be assured that right now, I’m sitting on writing the final report for the Corona Experiment for the Over/Under picks including a video explaining how I did the picks as well as offering the monitoring spreadsheet for download.
Please give me a few days to finish writing and publishing that article as it will certainly give you the answers to your questions.
Hi Soccerwidow
Was wondering if the article may be coming soon?
Thanks
Hi Simon, the challenge is that I’d like to make one video (or even more than only one) to go with the final OU trial article but unfortunately, I’m not an expert in that. So, I find every time something else to do in the house but to work on that video. Sorry! However, please be assured that I’m working on it.
Hi, I have just noticed you use pinnacle odds to calculate the ho/ao quotient, I have been using betfair exchange odds.
Do you think it is a big enough mistake to make me fail?
Hi Andrew,
We use a mixture of Pinnacle, Oddsportal and BetBrain odds for all tables now – only one of these sources per table, but the sales information in the store will tell you upon which odds each product is based, plus the Notes tab in each product is the one which opens first – there you will find an Important Note regarding which odds to base your selections upon.
Does Betfair odds make a difference regarding selection? Of course, Betfair’s odds include a commission element, which may affect matches with quotients near the margins of each HO/AO quotient, but I wouldn’t have thought it was enough to push too many matches into different bands. You might find a 5-10% difference where matches you end up selecting based on Betfair’s odds would not have been selected using the source odds to check.
You’ll have to do a little back-testing to see if there is any huge swing, but if you are then using Betfair to place your selected bets, then the commission element will definitely eat away at your profits. You can find out by how much by entering toggle figures in the HDAFU Tables System Picker tab.
I hope this goes some way to answering your question and thanks again for contacting us.
The only problem is im banned from most bookmakers due to being successful with other systems, so I only have exchanges left. I think 2% should not be too bad with commission.
Hi
Running a mac. The spreadsheets do not import all the formulas and links on Numbers.
I am guessing I am not the first to ask this question – Any easy solutions?
Thanks
Chris M
Hi Chris, you are the first to ask. 🙂
Unfortunately, we don’t work with a mac but here’s what the Apple support centre says:
Import an Excel file:
Hope that helps.
Best wishes,
Soccerwidow
Hi
Thanks for the reply.
Quick solution – I bought office for mac.
Loved the course – didn’t realise how much I didn’t know! lol
Thanks and keep up the good work
Chris M