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Euro 2012: Ukraine v England – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option. For this match we used a modified version of the spreadsheet for international tournament games with little or no head-to-head history.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 18th June, 2012…

England Draw Pain in Ukraine:

Both teams have to go for the win on Tuesday night: Ukraine just to qualify at England’s expense and England hoping to top the group and avoid a clash with Spain in the quarter-finals.

It’s a night when the fate of both nations could ride on the shoulders of their number one strikers with Wayne Rooney returning from suspension for England but Andriy Shevchenko rated only 50/50 for this game after aggravating a knee injury against France. It could also be a night which sees a repetition of Euro 2008, with both co-hosts bowing out of the tournament at the group phase.

Both teams have similar records over their last 30 competitive matches (Ukraine at home, England abroad). Ukraine have won 15 (50%), drawn 10 (33.3%), and lost only five (16.7%), scoring 47 goals and conceding 25 (average goals per game 2.40). England have won 18 (60%), drawn seven (23.3%), and lost only five (16.7%), scoring 48 goals and conceding 22 (average goals per game 2.33).

Ukraine have 15 clean sheets (50%), as opposed to England’s 16 (53.3%); Ukraine have scored and shutout their opponents on 11 occasions (36.7%), whilst England have managed this 13 times (43.3%).

The stats are close all across the board and both teams have even played under 3.5 goals in 22 of their last 30 competitive matches each (again, Ukraine at home, England abroad).

Salient statistics for the bet recommendations:

Ukraine’s last 30 competitive home matches in all competitions (since 2.9.2000):

  • Half-time Score 0-0: 13 times (43.3%)
  • Last 6 Half-time Scores (most recent first): 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1
  • Both Teams to Score = No: 18 times (60%)

England’s last 30 competitive away matches in all competitions (since 8.9.2004):

  • Half-time Score 0-0: 11 times (36.7%)
  • Last 6 Half-time Scores (most recent first): 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3, 0-2, 0-1
  • Both Teams to Score = No: 19 times (63.3%)

Identified Value Bets:

This is a particularly tight match to call and the market odds indicate it has been analysed to death with hardly any value around.

  • Value Betting Tip 1: Backing the draw at half-time is a wager worth making at the current odds of 2.28, which represent ‘value’ of 17.8% combined with a probability of winning the bet at 51.7%.
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 2: Back Half-time Score: 0-0 (Odds: 3.1; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 2.5; Value: 46.7%; Probability 40%).
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score = “No” (Odds: 2.2; Zero or ‘true’ odds: 1.62; Value 36.9%; Probability: 61.7%).
  • Bet WON

FT – Ukraine 0-1 England
HT – Ukraine 0-0 England

We understand that not all bets will win. Our strategy therefore revolves around the principle of ‘value’ betting (mathematical advantage based on statistical probability) – read the detailed review of our Betting Prediction Results: Dec 2011 – Jun 2012.

Last Update: 18 June 2012

Categories:Match Previews

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