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Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Tips

All of the league match previews and betting predictions you will find on the Soccerwidow site are based around data obtained from our True Odds and Value Detector Spreadsheet, which is available to purchase with or without an Asian Handicap option.

Gambling without emotion and with ‘value’ on your side is the only way to approach betting for profit. The Soccerwidow spreadsheet combines historical statistics with current betting odds to determine whether a bet carries value, and also shows the percentage likelihood of winning the bet.

Armed with this advantage, applying just a little thought to the match situation itself is enough to decide upon a portfolio of value bets for each game you choose to analyse. The following article was originally published on 5th August, 2012…

You Can’t Win Anything With Kids…

Stabæk are in desperate trouble and marooned at the bottom of the Tippeligaen, 10 points adrift of even a relegation play-off place with just under half of the season remaining. It’s all a bleak contrast to the heady days of winning the Tippeligaen just four years ago. Since then, financial troubles have blighted the club who started this season with just three players aged over 23. All the star names have departed and the youthful line-up that has mustered just two wins from 17 games this season already looks doomed.

SK Brann are 16 points better off than their opponents but floating in mid-table obscurity exactly 16 points adrift of the league leaders. A concerted effort between now and the end of the season might bring Europa League qualification but the push has to start now to make up 10 points on the third placed team, Rosenborg, which does seem unlikely.

In nine league encounters and one cup match over the last 10 years, Stabæk have won six and drawn two, yet they are rank outsiders for this game based purely on their perceived change of circumstances. You can get odds of 4.0 for them winning this game, when in reality the stats suggest 1.85. Go the other way and SK Brann’s current price of 1.96 should be around 3.45.

Indeed, everything on the home-draw-away front is back-to-front as the draw is priced at 4.0, whilst the ‘true’ odds are closer to 5.88. However muddled the HDA market may be, one thing is certain: there will be goals in this game. Stabæk’s last 25 home league matches have averaged exactly three goals a game, and SK Brann’s equivalent away games have produced 99 goals at an average of 3.96 per game.

Another telling stat is that in their respective 25 matches, both teams have been outscored by exactly the same margin, 42% of the respective goals for, and 58% against. Leaky defence versus leaky defence = goals a plenty…

Salient statistics for the football betting predictions

Head-to-Head (Stabæk hosts, SK Brann visitors, 10 matches in all competitions since 18.8.2002):
Half-time Scores: 0-0 (none); Stabæk 0-2 SK Brann (none)
Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 8 times (80%)
Half-time Draws: one (10%)

Stabæk’s last 25 Tippeligaen home games since 3.10.2010:
Half-time Scores: 0-0 (5 times = 20%); Losing 0-2 (once = 4%)
Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 21 times (84%)
Half-time Draws: six (24%)

SK Brann’s last 25 Tippeligaen away games since 17.10.2010:
Half-time Scores: 0-0 (once = 4%); Winning 0-2 (once = 4%)
Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals = 23 times (92%)
Half-time Draws: five (20%)

Identified Value Bets:

  • Value Betting Tip 1: Lay the draw at half-time carries significant value of 150% at odds of 2.5 (‘true’ odds 6.25), with an 84% chance of success.
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 2: Back Full-time: Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 1.23; ‘true’ odds: 1.19; Probability of winning the bet: 84%; Value: 20.39%).
  • Bet WON

  • Value Betting Tip 3: “Dutch” Lay Half-time Correct Scores: 0-0 (odds 3.5); Stabæk 0-2 SK Brann (odds 11.0) (with weighted stakes for equal risk/return). Combined lay odds: 2.66; combined ‘true’ lay odds: 12.5; Probability: 92%; Value: 370.8%.
  • Bet WON

FT – Stabæk 0-4 Brann
HT – Stabæk 0-1 Brann

Last Update: 5 August 2012

Categories:Match Previews

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