The Power of the 6th Generation of HDAFU Tables


We are happy to announce that the 6th generation of HDAFU tables are now ready for sale!

This is a substantial upgrade taking customer comments and queries into account such as the request of reducing human error when identifying systems, providing more assistance when judging the volatility of an identified system, speeding up the process of constructing a portfolio, providing a better feel of the expected losing sequences, and much more.

To give existing clients a comparison with the old table and new clients a good taste of what to expect, we have created a HDAFU Example Table:

The size of this Excel .XLSX workbook is 4.2 MB

>>> free epl hdafu table download <<<



It is a fully functional table and its only limitation is that it is an expired table (it’s a EPL 2012-17 table) and cannot be used for the forthcoming season. Of course, it can be used for backtesting its functionality against the 2017-18 season.

The test table will give you a pretty good idea of what to expect when purchasing HDAFU Tables for other leagues.

Of course, we will be populating Soccerwidow.com with updated User Guides and How To articles over the course of the next few weeks, but for those who already familiar with the filtering process, we are sure that they will very quickly pick up on the new method.

The Mightiness of the HDAFU Tables

(1) bookmaker’s business model

The bookmaker’s business model is primarily based on two factors:

Firstly, they keep a small commission on every game via overround. This is well known.

What is less known is that bookmakers when setting their odds adjust them according to the expected weight of money to be staked (= public opinion), meaning that some odds are being lowered and others are increased.

Of course, bookmakers predict (calculate) the outcomes of matches as good as they possibly can on the basis of historical statistics and whatever price adjustments (odds changes) they make are not huge and only in the region of 2 to 3% of the expected true probabilities and therefore not easy to spot.

(2) the power of the hdafu tables revealed

Due to the market expectations that the sum of the three likelihoods of home ~ draw ~ away must add up to 100% the bookmakers’ business model leads to the fact that if one side of the 1X2 bet is reduced (e.g. reducing the home win odds from ‘true’ odds of 1.65 [60.6%] to say, 1.6 [62.5%]) the other two bets in this example, the draw and away win, have to be adjusted as well (e.g. the draw odds being increased from 3.57 [28.0%] to 3.70 [27.1%] and the away odds from 8.78 [11.4%] to 9.57 [10.4%]).

Of course, another market pressure is that bookmakers tout for market share and some bookmakers will therefore offer certain bets to inflated prices (odds). To stick with the example; although the away win should be priced (according to the above ‘adjusted’ calculation) at 9.57 one bookmaker decides to offer this bet for 15.0 [6.7%]. This leads in the market to a correction of the draw odds from 3.7 to 3.24 [30.8%].

This all doesn’t mean that the true probabilities of the outcome of the match have changed. They are still 60.6% [1.65] for the home win, 28.0% [3.57] for the draw and 11.4% [8.78] for the away win but the implied probabilities now show 62.5% [1.6] for the home win, 30.8% [3.24] for the draw and 6.7% [15.0] for the away win.

Here’s where the HDAFU Inflection Point Graphs come in: They display the turning points in the odds (the previous five seasons in each league) where bookmakers habitually increase or decrease their prices.

Our HDAFU tables visualise the profit/loss curves that a bettor would have attained would he have been betting on the all the matches during a period of five seasons and with that they reveal the bookmakers best kept secret – where they ‘adjust’ their odds due to market pressures and public opinion.

With the help of the Inflection Point graphs it is very easy to visually identify the turning points and with the interactive ‘system picker’ tab to narrow down the field of view and identify profitable betting systems.

The Main Upgrades from the Previous Version

All three scenarios (whole of season, 1st half, 2nd half) are now in one file. Instead of the three HDAFU tables per league like last season you now get only one. But this doesn’t mean that you get less for your money. On the contrary, you’re getting much more!

The HDAFU Tables are in a new style Excel workbook, with everything fully automated. No more time wasted filtering and amending formulas manually, one-by-one – it’s all touch of a button stuff now.

The fully automated ‘System Picker’ tab removes the need of sorting through the data and carrying out any manual calculations. All the necessary calculations are done automatically for you and you will see the results in an instant.

In addition to inflection point graphs by odds the new tables now also provide 15 additional analyses by ‘home odds divided by away odds quotient’ (HO/AO Quotient). The relationship between the home and away odds remains very constant throughout the ante post market. This allows identification of bets and their placement at any time during the ante post market, removing the need to place bets close to kick-off. In short, there are no more time restrictions and results should be more reliable.

The price per league remains sensible at £35.00 each.

We truly hope that you are going to love the new format of the tables and we would be very interested to hear any feedback on the new style table once you’ve had a chance to look at it.

Just as a side note, the available summer leagues have also been upgraded to the new format and we’ll send out update emails to all buyers in due course. However, we’ll wait with that until we have published all the supporting articles in order to avoid confusion for those who are in the middle of their summer league campaigns.

HDA Betting: Profit/Loss Simulation Tables
PRODUCT SUMMARY

  • Format: Excel .XLSX (compatible with Excel 2007 and higher)
  • File Size: between 1.72 MB and 4.55 MB each
  • Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd (formerly Soccerwidow Ltd); 6th revised edition
  • Profit/Loss Simulations within each Workbook: Inflection Point Graphs by Odds and HO/AO Quotient for Home Win, Draw, Away Win, Favourite & Underdog, plus a breakdown of individual teams’ performance in each bet type from both a home and away perspective.
  • Language: ENGLISH

By purchasing this product you agree to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy.

After payment you will get the product download link(s) delivered immediately to your inbox. For that you will receive an email from GetDPD, our digital delivery partner.

Should your download link not arrive within 10 minutes after purchasing, please check your spam folder. We do sometimes receive reports from our clients that GetDPD emails land there occasionally. You can play it safe and allow within your email program emails with the endings: digitalproductdelivery.com (GetDPD) and soccerwidow.com (us).

‘Allowing’ communications from digitalproductdelivery.com and soccerwidow.com is actually quite important because we do update and/or upgrade products from time to time and you certainly don’t want to miss the free download link we will send out to buyers.

If you have any further questions please check our Frequently Asked Questions – HDAFU Tables

>>> buy your hdafu tables <<<

Comment for the Tables in their new format

It is very much an improvement on last years format and much much easier to use. It does take out a lot of the previous manual filtering and adjustments, which is important to minimise any errors made purely from manipulating the spreadsheets.

I do like its split between both, the odds and the HO/AO quotient and looking at it and comparing to previous. It certainly gives more insights to analyse. I also really like the time profile of the profit/loss over the 5 year period as this was one area I think last year I could have improved my portfolio with smarter decisions.

Michael


Last Update: 10 July 2018

Categories:1x2 Betting Betting Systems S T O R E



2 Responses to “The Power of the 6th Generation of HDAFU Tables”

  1. Jamie
    18 July 2018 at 3:23 pm #

    Would purchasing 5 leagues be enough to collate the 500 bets required? Using 2 systems per league based on the HO/AO and by odds?

    • Soccerwidow
      18 July 2018 at 4:44 pm #

      Hi Jamie, the statement of “500 bets required over one whole season” is just an advice for risk diversification. It is not set in stone. You can also look for at least 15 bets per round (week), or just concentrate on one half of a season and there for a total of 250 bets, and so on.

      Yes, it is probably likely that you will find two (if not even more) systems per league with the ‘required’ number of bets. However, the much greater challenge is going to be to find enough low risk systems with a probability of well over 50% of winning. There I’m not so sure that 5 leagues is a sufficient number.

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