The Challenge of Predicting Individual Events

Furthermore, the expectation was that Bayern would win around 46% of their away matches, meaning eight of 17 games.

Bayern won nine away matches, just one more than expected.

Again, whichever matches these were going to be before the season started was impossible to predict with any confidence.

These lists can be continued at great length, using the statistics of every team in every league in the world.

To reiterate our earlier statement, although the aggregation of a large number of single events is predictable with high accuracy, each of the individual events comprising the whole is not at all or only vaguely predictable.

Amazingly, when completed sets of events are reviewed the total aggregation is usually always as expected.

Prediction of the Whole, but not its Constituent Parts

Another example, this time drawn from economics:

Economists are able to calculate how much of people’s savings will be redeployed in home ownership if the government increases taxes by a certain amount. This can be calculated accurately.

However, who of the millions of individuals in the country decides to redeploy their assets is a complete unknown.

It is possible to predict that a certain region will respond to tax increases more than any other region, but whether it will include the Smith family, their neighbours, or the rest of their street is not pre-determined.

The point is that aggregation laws apply to the national economy, to individual life and businesses, and ultimately to football.

It is possible to predict with an uncanny accuracy the outcome of the overall effects of single events, however predictions of specific events within the whole are very, very inaccurate.

Why this should be is anyone’s guess. Perhaps it is one of the magic rules of mathematics?

Food for thought.

Football Betting Systems

Blanket betting aims to scoop winning selections from a select pool of available events using the minimum number of bets.

Of course, it is impossible to correctly predict the event of your choice every time – not every bet will win – but if your selection parameters are carefully calculated and fine-tuned, it is possible to put together a consistently profitable system.

Read our article Betting System Concepts For Successful Football Betting for an idea of the procedures and analysis involved.

You may also be interested in our popular Home-Draw-Away-Favourite-Underdog back and lay bet tables, which you can use to:

  • visualise profitable and unprofitable bet types from the entire range of backing and laying the home win, the draw, the away win, the favourite win, and the underdog win
  • select individual teams which make perennial profits purely because they are constantly over- or under-priced by the bookmakers
  • see the effects of different staking plans and set the stakes to your preferred amount to see changes in the profit or loss figures
  • add betting exchange commission to the equation and see the effects on profits
  • sort the data to find the sweet spot in the odds clusters where profits are maximised
  • observe the maximum losing streak in each bet type for a more realistic picture of likely future outcomes

The tables available for sale cover five years’ results, which is a totally satisfactory and statistically significant sample size.

All of the major European leagues are represented and mid- to late-October is a good time to begin any betting system.

Last Update: 6 June 2012

Categories:Betting Guidance Investment Advice

One Response to “The Challenge of Predicting Individual Events”

  1. 10 October 2012 at 5:19 am #

    Good stuff, hope we can talk more on this subject.

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