Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics

Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.

Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!

Cartoon: Blindfolded people walk precariously close to the edge of a cliffRemember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.

Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)

It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.

The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!

This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.

Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.

What Do You Get For The Money?

The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.

To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.

All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!

In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.

*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.

Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals


Fundamentals of Sports Betting - book cover
  • Format: PDF & XLS
  • Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
  • Pages: 169 (almost 38,000 words)
  • Tables and graphs: 70
  • Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
  • Language: ENGLISH

Only £59.00*

* 0% VAT to UK customers, 0% VAT to Non-EU customers     Read more: EU VAT Legislation    

>>> read an excerpt from the book <<<

PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing

For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.

Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.

The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.

Contents at a Glance

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability

Basic Statistical Terminology

  • Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
  • Deviation from the Mean
  • Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
  • Precision, Trueness and Accuracy

Betting Odds Calculation

  • Probability and Betting Odds
  • Opening Betting Odds Range
  • Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds

Risk Management Control

  • Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
  • Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
  • Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank

Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy

Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables

Market Dynamics

  • Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
  • Falling Odds represent Price Increase
  • Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions

Building of Cluster Groups

  • What are Cluster Groups?
  • Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team

Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

  • Goal Distribution by Team
  • Team Calculation Tables
  • Standard Deviation Tables
  • Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds

Finding Value Bets

  • Everything that Glitters is not Gold
  • Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
  • Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
  • Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification

>>> frequently asked questions <<<

…or ask any questions in the comment section below.

Last Update: 20 November 2016

Categories:Money Management Odds Calculation S T O R E Value Betting Academy

47 Responses to “Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics”

  1. Jeff
    6 October 2016 at 3:53 pm #

    Could you please explain how you calculated profit/loss for both back and lay bets in table 12?


    • Soccerwidow
      8 October 2016 at 10:39 am #

      Fig. 12: The back and lay odds in the table are taken from the Betfair screenshot (Fig. 11). I cannot see there any profit/loss calculations. Are we talking about the same course?

  2. Jeff
    8 October 2016 at 3:49 pm #

    Ah, I have the old course, the first edition. Didn’t realise there was a new version out.

    I think what I’m looking for is actually explained in the footnote.

    Profit = investment * value.

    Sorry should have looked closer!

  3. Daniele
    6 December 2016 at 5:07 am #

    i just finished the reading of your book, and found everything very interesting. I was womdering though if the same principles described in the book could be applied for 1×2 markets. In the specific, analyzing 1×2 data for 5 seasons, extrapolate means and deviation for everyone of them and adjusting the final results with the help of cluster tables build for this type of results. It seems to me that the very same approach could give quite satisfying results, please correct me if i’m wrong.Also i have a question regarding the building of cluster tables. Once i split the clusters into four quartiles based on the HO/AO quotient, how do i figure out the range of odds associated with every quartile? I hope my question is clear anough. Also, when do you plan to release new volumes of the series?

    I hope you will find the time to answer all of my questions.


    • Soccerwidow
      6 December 2016 at 7:49 am #

      Hi Daniele,

      The 1×2 markets are more difficult because there are 3 results instead of just 2. The over/under markets are simply speaking just Yes or No. However, you are right, statistics are statistics. It’s all about means and deviations, plus for the HDA betting about the inflection points.

      Regarding your question about the range of odds… Please have a look in the Cluster Table “Betting Tables” tab. There you will find in the columns D and E the average home odds for each cluster. If this is not enough then you will have to produce you own little table.

      The next volume of the series is going to be predicting 1×2 results, and I really hope that in January/February I will find the time to write this new volume.

      By the way, would you mind to write up a testimonial on the course and post it here on the comment section? We need to increase sales so that we can employ (and pay) someone to assist us to publish this book as a hard copy to be sold on Amazon & Co.

      Many thanks,

  4. Daniele
    12 December 2016 at 6:43 pm #

    Your course has proven to be invaluable. It teached me how to approach to statistical analysis to ensure the understanding of every odd that the bookies price. I am also developing a strategy based on what i learned on the book, and i have been able to create my own analysis tables for every league i am interested in. I am currently running a simulation on betting o

    • Daniele
      12 December 2016 at 6:50 pm #

      I am currently running a simulation based on finding values, and i have a solid idea on how to support what i have learned in the course with the help of inflection points and odds clusters regarding betting on 1×2. So i want to ask, if i buy the HDA simulation tables am i able to see excel formulas behind the calculations, like in the tables that came with the course? That helped me so much with understanding how to fine tuning this powerful betting tools to my needings! (And my excel competence, too)

      • Soccerwidow
        13 December 2016 at 8:32 am #

        Hi Daniele,

        I’m very happy to hear that you are finding the course so helpful, and of course you will be able to see the Excel formulas behind the calculations in the HDA tables. However, please be aware that these are two totally different products. The O/U course teaches odds calculation whilst the HDA tables are simulations “what would have happened when”. There is a course scheduled for next year which goes in depth with 1×2 betting and utilising the HDA tables.

  5. sarkec
    16 December 2016 at 10:10 pm #


    Did you try this method of calculation of goals before producing it?
    If yes, what results did you have?
    I understand the concepts presented in it, but I am very sceptic about getting good results from my value bets.
    Do you think someone can succeed long term with this method?


    • Soccerwidow
      20 December 2016 at 12:57 pm #

      Hi sarkec, it’s a while ago that we did public match previews, but here is our record: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

      My husband has been nagging on me for years to reveal to the public my method how I did the picks, and this how the course came to live.

      So, yes, you will get good results by using statistics!

      Good luck,

  6. jo
    17 December 2016 at 11:07 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    in Germany 2010-2015 Over/Under workbook provided password for GD by Team tab is GbT@SW2015. In fact, the real password is GDbT@SW2015. And it’s the same for 2011-2016 Germany Over/Under wb – provided password misses “D”. For Data tab password Data@SW2015 doesn’t work in 2010-2015 wb, but works fine in 2011-2016. I tried some other options, but this time I’m not able to crack it. What is the password for 2010-2015 O/U workbook Data tab?

    • Soccerwidow
      20 December 2016 at 1:02 pm #

      Hi jo,

      Thanks for making us aware that we provided the wrong password for the GD by Team tab.

      However, Data@SW2015 works fine for me for the 2010-15 file and Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file.

  7. jo
    20 December 2016 at 3:27 pm #

    It’s really strange. I even tried Data@SW2015 on untouched copies of 2010-15 file and it doesn’t work, while Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file works fine.

    • Soccerwidow
      21 December 2016 at 8:09 am #

      Hi jo,

      I just reactivated your purchase. Please re-download the file and see if it works now.

      There was a bug with the passwords and we updated the Excel file in October what was after your purchase. So it should now work fine. At least I hope so. 🙂

      Sorry for any troubles,

  8. jo
    21 December 2016 at 12:51 pm #

    Hi Soccerwidow,

    thank you, now it works fine:).

  9. ivan
    26 January 2017 at 11:43 am #

    I am a beginner and I don’ t know the meaning of back and lay. Can I buy this ebook?

    • Soccerwidow
      26 January 2017 at 12:32 pm #

      Hi ivan,

      the course explains not only the difference between back and lay, but also the opening odds range, you learn to calculate your own betting odds, and much more!

  10. Chris
    3 May 2017 at 11:08 am #

    I thought I would take the trouble to write and tell you that I love what you have achieved with Soccer Widow! I’ve seen a lot of so called experts selling products and services relating to gambling, but none of them have come close to SW’s offerings for me.

    I started with the Over/Under Odds Calculation Course and whilst it took me some time to get used to a “new” way of looking at markets because of some bad (unprofitable!) habits I had to reverse, I’m now on course to becoming profitable in my betting and considering plans to increase my existing tiny stakes (I’m naturally risk averse…) as a result of the positives I’m seeing coming from the mindset change.

    The Value Bet Detectors and HDAFU Tables are really challenging my perceptions of what the numbers mean and how to maximise their potential returns.

    Without the SW products and education, both paid for and all the free info shared in the blog, etc, none of this would be possible.

    In return, I’d like to say well done on a cracking product portfolio and thanks for helping me to find the light! I’m so looking forward to the new football season in August, my real life trials of the solutions you have provided so far have been very interesting and this year will see the Summer leagues I’m trialling between now and then be the first season results that are profitable for me.

    I can’t wait to see what you release next – I’m sure I will be buying it, whatever it is!

    Thanks again!

  11. Right Winger
    3 May 2017 at 11:22 am #

    Thanks Chris, we are humbled by your kind words!

    I’ve added a few links to your text to direct others to the products you mentioned.

    Yes, there is a stigma attached to any site that sells gambling related products, but as they are put together by mathematicians here who are unconnected and unemotional regarding the sport in general, success at gambling boils down to a simple numbers game.

    And bookmakers exist to take advantage of most people’s poor grasp of mathematics, I’m afraid.

    When I see adverts telling people to gamble responsibly and to stop when they are no longer having fun, I cringe to say the least. The reality of the situation is the strong preying on the weak, and the vast majority of people don’t gamble for fun – they gamble to win.

    Hopefully, we do help people reassess their own abilities when it comes to understanding gambling maths, and if we can stop them from losing, then that’s our job done.

    As you say, most of our guidance is in the form of free information on this site, but if people require the little extra help in the form of ready-made solutions on a plate, then the money they pay us for those products will probably be the best value they will ever receive for such small stakes in their gambling careers.

    All the best.

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