Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain.
Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!
Remember folks it’s all about finding the “edge”.Image: Cartoonresource (Shutterstock)
It is common knowledge that the gambling industry as a whole relies to a large extent on the ignorance of its customers and, only by understanding how bookmakers think and act, will you ever be able to compete with them on a level playing field.
The Most Valuable Book About Betting You Will Ever Buy!
This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.
It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.
Amongst the topics you will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.
You will gain a deep understanding of the many different elements required to understand the bookmaker market and odds calculation. Many false beliefs that the majority of gamblers and fans of football have about betting will be exposed and stripped away.
Readers will also be enlightened to learn about how odds are set in the market, where to find ‘errors’ in market prices, how to evaluate data and graphs, and much, much more.
What Do You Get For The Money?
The course comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. This course employs a didactic method of teaching, which is an educational technique. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next.
To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations.
All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…!
In addition, you will receive the very latest Bundesliga table for the current season, so that you can put into practice what you have learned and within the course, you will find a discount code enabling you to download for free the German Bundesliga sheet in future seasons, meaning that you will always have access to the most current Bundesliga cluster table, forever: it doesn’t matter when you bought the course.
*By the way, the PDF is a professionally formatted document and if you have a double-sided printer you can print your own book for studying.
Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Course with Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY
- Format: PDF & XLS
- Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
- Publisher: Soccerwidow Ltd; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
- Pages: 169 (almost 38,000 words)
- Tables and graphs: 70
- Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
- Language: ENGLISH
PDF document professionally styled for easy reading and printing
For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding.
Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible.
The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.
Contents at a Glance
Section A: Basic Knowledge
Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability
Basic Statistical Terminology
- Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
- Deviation from the Mean
- Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
- Precision, Trueness and Accuracy
Betting Odds Calculation
- Probability and Betting Odds
- Opening Betting Odds Range
- Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds
Risk Management Control
- Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
- Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
- Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank
Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy
Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables
Market Dynamics
- Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
- Falling Odds represent Price Increase
- Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions
Building of Cluster Groups
- What are Cluster Groups?
- Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team
Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
- Goal Distribution by Team
- Team Calculation Tables
- Standard Deviation Tables
- Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds
Finding Value Bets
- Everything that Glitters is not Gold
- Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
- Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
- Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification
…or ask any questions in the comment section below.
Working on 3.3.4 now and found some inconsistencies between the questions and the answers. You asked me to post those here, so here goes:
Question C ii) asks after how many bets the longest winning streak can be expected. However the answer for that question is how long the longest winning streak lasts. Two different things.
The longest winning streak at 20% and 500 bets is expected to be 4 bets in a row. Using the calculations before that would mean that it is expected to take 625 bets at a hitrate of 20% to hit a streak of 4.
Thanks for pointing out this little slip, we will make sure that when we revise the course we will provide the correct answer to this question.
Brilliant! You calculated totally right! Well done! 🙂
Feel free to continue pointing out whatever you find as we are planning to revise the course in November to remove any errors, doesn’t matter how tiny they are.
Hi there, me again 🙂
Another question concerning value. In the course you seem to favour comparing the Yield to the RSD, however when I look at my calculations I find it far easier (and more intuitive, but that’s personal) to just compare the market odds with the high fair odds based on the probability range.
Is that perfectly fine as well? Or am I missing some nuance that makes the Yield method more favourable?
Hi Stan, there are many roads which lead to Rome.
I’m explaining the Yield/RSD comparison in the course, but if you have another method which works fine for you, then there is nothing wrong with using it.
Could you please explain how you calculated profit/loss for both back and lay bets in table 12?
Thanks
Fig. 12: The back and lay odds in the table are taken from the Betfair screenshot (Fig. 11). I cannot see there any profit/loss calculations. Are we talking about the same course?
Ah, I have the old course, the first edition. Didn’t realise there was a new version out.
I think what I’m looking for is actually explained in the footnote.
Profit = investment * value.
Sorry should have looked closer!
Hello,
i just finished the reading of your book, and found everything very interesting. I was womdering though if the same principles described in the book could be applied for 1×2 markets. In the specific, analyzing 1×2 data for 5 seasons, extrapolate means and deviation for everyone of them and adjusting the final results with the help of cluster tables build for this type of results. It seems to me that the very same approach could give quite satisfying results, please correct me if i’m wrong.Also i have a question regarding the building of cluster tables. Once i split the clusters into four quartiles based on the HO/AO quotient, how do i figure out the range of odds associated with every quartile? I hope my question is clear anough. Also, when do you plan to release new volumes of the series?
I hope you will find the time to answer all of my questions.
Thanks,
Daniele
Hi Daniele,
The 1×2 markets are more difficult because there are 3 results instead of just 2. The over/under markets are simply speaking just Yes or No. However, you are right, statistics are statistics. It’s all about means and deviations, plus for the HDA betting about the inflection points.
Regarding your question about the range of odds… Please have a look in the Cluster Table “Betting Tables” tab. There you will find in the columns D and E the average home odds for each cluster. If this is not enough then you will have to produce you own little table.
The next volume of the series is going to be predicting 1×2 results, and I really hope that in January/February I will find the time to write this new volume.
By the way, would you mind to write up a testimonial on the course and post it here on the comment section? We need to increase sales so that we can employ (and pay) someone to assist us to publish this book as a hard copy to be sold on Amazon & Co.
Many thanks,
Soccerwidow
Your course has proven to be invaluable. It teached me how to approach to statistical analysis to ensure the understanding of every odd that the bookies price. I am also developing a strategy based on what i learned on the book, and i have been able to create my own analysis tables for every league i am interested in. I am currently running a simulation on betting o
I am currently running a simulation based on finding values, and i have a solid idea on how to support what i have learned in the course with the help of inflection points and odds clusters regarding betting on 1×2. So i want to ask, if i buy the HDA simulation tables am i able to see excel formulas behind the calculations, like in the tables that came with the course? That helped me so much with understanding how to fine tuning this powerful betting tools to my needings! (And my excel competence, too)
Hi Daniele,
I’m very happy to hear that you are finding the course so helpful, and of course you will be able to see the Excel formulas behind the calculations in the HDA tables. However, please be aware that these are two totally different products. The O/U course teaches odds calculation whilst the HDA tables are simulations “what would have happened when”. There is a course scheduled for next year which goes in depth with 1×2 betting and utilising the HDA tables.
Hello!
Did you try this method of calculation of goals before producing it?
If yes, what results did you have?
I understand the concepts presented in it, but I am very sceptic about getting good results from my value bets.
Do you think someone can succeed long term with this method?
Thanks
Hi sarkec, it’s a while ago that we did public match previews, but here is our record: Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012
My husband has been nagging on me for years to reveal to the public my method how I did the picks, and this how the course came to live.
So, yes, you will get good results by using statistics!
Good luck,
Soccerwidow
Hi Soccerwidow,
in Germany 2010-2015 Over/Under workbook provided password for GD by Team tab is GbT@SW2015. In fact, the real password is GDbT@SW2015. And it’s the same for 2011-2016 Germany Over/Under wb – provided password misses “D”. For Data tab password Data@SW2015 doesn’t work in 2010-2015 wb, but works fine in 2011-2016. I tried some other options, but this time I’m not able to crack it. What is the password for 2010-2015 O/U workbook Data tab?
Hi jo,
Thanks for making us aware that we provided the wrong password for the GD by Team tab.
However, Data@SW2015 works fine for me for the 2010-15 file and Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file.
It’s really strange. I even tried Data@SW2015 on untouched copies of 2010-15 file and it doesn’t work, while Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file works fine.
Hi jo,
I just reactivated your purchase. Please re-download the file and see if it works now.
There was a bug with the passwords and we updated the Excel file in October what was after your purchase. So it should now work fine. At least I hope so. 🙂
Sorry for any troubles,
Soccerwidow
Hi Soccerwidow,
thank you, now it works fine:).