They say that the proof of the pudding is always in the eating.
Here is the story of how we made over £10,000 in 178 match days from £100 level stakes during 2016 with a straightforward series of backing systems made up of a portfolio of nine leagues from our Summer League HDAFU tables. (Click Here: 14 leagues for 2017 now available for sale).
2016 Summer League Campaign Workbook:
Full details of our 2016 Summer League portfolio are included in a dedicated Excel workbook, which you can download here for free. This workbook details every bet placed in all nine leagues, together with a chronological summary, the winning and losing streaks, and the parameters of each system employed. It’s a must-have simply as a monitoring sheet template, and you will need it to understand much of what we talk about below.
Click on the following link to receive your free download via email:
Just click on the button above and then on “Continue Checkout” in the pop-up box. Enter your name and e-mail address and our store will then deliver the file to you via e-mail, free of charge. The size of the Excel file is 278KB. (Warning: Please do not apply these systems to future seasons – the parameters will certainly have changed, with each league requiring a complete re-analysis).
Overview of the Monitoring Workbook
1) Summary Tab
Here you will see the 15 separate systems we decided to play with; a well-balanced mixture of backing home wins and favourites (six systems: low risk/low return) and away wins and underdogs (nine systems: higher risk/higher return).
At the time of analysis, although there were viable systems for the draw apparent, other systems took preference. (However, we do employ several draw systems in our Winter League portfolio).
You will also see that in certain leagues, we ran different systems in the first and second halves of their seasons. In other leagues, the system chosen was a better fit for the whole of the season (U.S.A., Finland and Japan).
Analysing our HDAFU tables is now a much faster exercise than ever before despite the fact that each league now comes with three separate workbooks: one to demonstrate the five full seasons approach; one limited to games in the first half of each season; one limited to games in the second half of each season.
As frequently happens, there is more than one opportunity to analyse in each of the three workbooks, but we take only the most promising system per league, or two if the league is split into half seasons. Read more about this approach here.
Running more than one system per league in the same market (in this case, the 1×2 market) causes confusion with conflicting betting decisions. It also means relying on something that is not the most promising in that league to help support the portfolio as a whole. With portfolio betting it is essential to field the strongest team from the start without involving any also-rans.
If we were to start mixing the best performing systems with lesser ones then we would be mixing apples with pears. The sweet tasting apple pie we hoped to bake would be contaminated. Always better to compare and match apples with apples.
On the whole, the time taken to analyse and then decide upon which system to support was no more than a couple of hours per league, sometimes a little more, sometimes less.
For the nine leagues represented, we spent less than 20 hours coming up with the 15 systems.
i) Expectations Prior to 2016 Season
In columns F-P, you will see a complete breakdown of the figures our 15 systems forecasted for the 2016 season in each league.
You will also see a box entitled Possible Yield Range (Row 30). We have highlighted the Average Yield and Lowest Yield expected, which you will see is between 23.86% and 1.58%. This is the more realistic threshold we expected our final result to occupy.
The Highest Yield expected of 46.05% is an arbitrary figure. It is virtually impossible to achieve for the following reasons:
- It represents a cherry-picking exercise because the 46.05% figure is a synthesis of each league’s single highest profit season from the five analysed. Which season is the ‘best’ is also unlikely to be the same one in different leagues. For example, it might be the 2015 season in Japan and 2016 in Sweden.
Although there is a tiny possibility that all nine of our leagues simultaneously experience their best season in the last six in the bet types we are targeting, the statistical chance is negligible.
- The HDAFU tables are based on highest market odds at the close of the ante post market and it is extremely unlikely that you will obtain the highest odds available with every bet you place. The more realistic expectation is therefore always going to be less than the Highest Yield forecast.
- Some of our 15 systems were bound to fail although guessing which ones would was impossible to answer. We knew this before we even started. There are several reasons for this:
- We chose systems which showed a historical profit in at least four of the five seasons analysed. Even with a system based on five seasons’ profit, there would still be chance of it failing in the sixth season.
- The league may experience a lower than average hit-rate in the new season. In fact, the coming season may be an anomalous one altogether. For example, it records the worst hit-rate for home wins in the last 10 seasons. Without the need for a complicated mathematical calculation we can say right away that there is a basic one in 10 chance of this occurring, and 10% is 10%, not zero.
The more leagues and systems used, the more times this chance is faced and 10-year record highs and lows have to be set sometime. Of course, if we narrow things down and say that the league records its worst set of home wins in the next season (the sixth: the one after our five seasons’ analysis), the chance of the new season being the worst of the last six is a basic one in six (16.67%).
Likewise, for a bet type to record its best results for 10 seasons, the chance is again 10%, and 16.67% in the last six seasons.
Of course, the reality of the overall performance is likely to be somewhere in the middle (a standard distribution bell curve). Not all systems will fail and not all will over-achieve but by picking the sweet spots in the historical results, our chances of overall success are enhanced.
- Bookmaker odds across the board may be slightly lower than usual. We have definitely seen evidence in the data we have collected over the years that there are some seasons where the odds setting for a particular bet type is markedly different from previous seasons. It’s not often, but it does happen. It may not influence whether you make a profit, but it will affect the size of it.