How we made £10k in 178 days with the Summer League HDAFU Tables

They say that the proof of the pudding is always in the eating.

Here is the story of how we made over £10,000 in 178 match days from £100 level stakes during 2016 with a straightforward series of backing systems made up of a portfolio of nine leagues from our Summer League HDAFU tables. (Click Here: 14 leagues for 2017 now available for sale).

FREE Download!
2016 Summer League Campaign Workbook:

Full details of our 2016 Summer League portfolio are included in a dedicated Excel workbook, which you can download here for free. This workbook details every bet placed in all nine leagues, together with a chronological summary, the winning and losing streaks, and the parameters of each system employed. It’s a must-have simply as a monitoring sheet template, and you will need it to understand much of what we talk about below.

Click on the following link to receive your free download via email:

>>> 2016 summer league campaign <<<

Just click on the button above and then on “Continue Checkout” in the pop-up box. Enter your name and e-mail address and our store will then deliver the file to you via e-mail, free of charge. The size of the Excel file is 278KB. (Warning: Please do not apply these systems to future seasons – the parameters will certainly have changed, with each league requiring a complete re-analysis).

Overview of the Monitoring Workbook

1) Summary Tab

Here you will see the 15 separate systems we decided to play with; a well-balanced mixture of backing home wins and favourites (six systems: low risk/low return) and away wins and underdogs (nine systems: higher risk/higher return).

At the time of analysis, although there were viable systems for the draw apparent, other systems took preference. (However, we do employ several draw systems in our Winter League portfolio).

You will also see that in certain leagues, we ran different systems in the first and second halves of their seasons. In other leagues, the system chosen was a better fit for the whole of the season (U.S.A., Finland and Japan).

Analysing our HDAFU tables is now a much faster exercise than ever before despite the fact that each league now comes with three separate workbooks: one to demonstrate the five full seasons approach; one limited to games in the first half of each season; one limited to games in the second half of each season.

As frequently happens, there is more than one opportunity to analyse in each of the three workbooks, but we take only the most promising system per league, or two if the league is split into half seasons. Read more about this approach here.

Running more than one system per league in the same market (in this case, the 1×2 market) causes confusion with conflicting betting decisions. It also means relying on something that is not the most promising in that league to help support the portfolio as a whole. With portfolio betting it is essential to field the strongest team from the start without involving any also-rans.

If we were to start mixing the best performing systems with lesser ones then we would be mixing apples with pears. The sweet tasting apple pie we hoped to bake would be contaminated. Always better to compare and match apples with apples.

On the whole, the time taken to analyse and then decide upon which system to support was no more than a couple of hours per league, sometimes a little more, sometimes less.

For the nine leagues represented, we spent less than 20 hours coming up with the 15 systems.

i) Expectations Prior to 2016 Season

In columns F-P, you will see a complete breakdown of the figures our 15 systems forecasted for the 2016 season in each league.

You will also see a box entitled Possible Yield Range (Row 30). We have highlighted the Average Yield and Lowest Yield expected, which you will see is between 23.86% and 1.58%. This is the more realistic threshold we expected our final result to occupy.

The Highest Yield expected of 46.05% is an arbitrary figure. It is virtually impossible to achieve for the following reasons:

  • It represents a cherry-picking exercise because the 46.05% figure is a synthesis of each league’s single highest profit season from the five analysed. Which season is the ‘best’ is also unlikely to be the same one in different leagues. For example, it might be the 2015 season in Japan and 2016 in Sweden.

    Although there is a tiny possibility that all nine of our leagues simultaneously experience their best season in the last six in the bet types we are targeting, the statistical chance is negligible.

  • The HDAFU tables are based on highest market odds at the close of the ante post market and it is extremely unlikely that you will obtain the highest odds available with every bet you place. The more realistic expectation is therefore always going to be less than the Highest Yield forecast.
  • Some of our 15 systems were bound to fail although guessing which ones would was impossible to answer. We knew this before we even started. There are several reasons for this:
  1. We chose systems which showed a historical profit in at least four of the five seasons analysed. Even with a system based on five seasons’ profit, there would still be chance of it failing in the sixth season.
  2. The league may experience a lower than average hit-rate in the new season. In fact, the coming season may be an anomalous one altogether. For example, it records the worst hit-rate for home wins in the last 10 seasons. Without the need for a complicated mathematical calculation we can say right away that there is a basic one in 10 chance of this occurring, and 10% is 10%, not zero.

    The more leagues and systems used, the more times this chance is faced and 10-year record highs and lows have to be set sometime. Of course, if we narrow things down and say that the league records its worst set of home wins in the next season (the sixth: the one after our five seasons’ analysis), the chance of the new season being the worst of the last six is a basic one in six (16.67%).

    Likewise, for a bet type to record its best results for 10 seasons, the chance is again 10%, and 16.67% in the last six seasons.

    Of course, the reality of the overall performance is likely to be somewhere in the middle (a standard distribution bell curve). Not all systems will fail and not all will over-achieve but by picking the sweet spots in the historical results, our chances of overall success are enhanced.

  3. Bookmaker odds across the board may be slightly lower than usual. We have definitely seen evidence in the data we have collected over the years that there are some seasons where the odds setting for a particular bet type is markedly different from previous seasons. It’s not often, but it does happen. It may not influence whether you make a profit, but it will affect the size of it.
  4. Next Page: Season Results and Post-Mortem

    learn to think like a bookmaker!
    deciphering bookmaker mathematics

Last Update: 19 February 2017

Categories:Betting Advice Betting Systems

35 Responses to “How we made £10k in 178 days with the Summer League HDAFU Tables”

  1. Shomen
    5 March 2017 at 12:27 am #

    Hi, one question. You’ve based your portfolio on odds clusters only. Was that on purpose to begin with or weren’t there any viable strategies in betting on teams and/or ratios?

  2. Right Winger
    6 March 2017 at 2:45 pm #

    Hi Shomen,

    Personally speaking, we have certainly moved away from betting on individual teams, although this analysis is still included in the current format of the HDAFU tables.

    Ratios are still viable, but trying to convey the message to the wider audience is difficult. With odds clusters, it is far easier to understand and explain.

    If the concept of odds clusters is something that we enable our readers to grasp, then I am sure they will also be able to extend their thinking to odds ratios or any other method of clustering results to identify where the areas of perennial profits are.

    Thanks for your question.

  3. Shomen
    6 March 2017 at 6:16 pm #

    Hi right winger, wouldn’t say you took a gamble with The Japan pick? 3 out of 5 seasons were either meager or negative, which might have caused a bumpy ride. In the end 20% of your profits came from this ‘gamble’.

    • Right Winger
      6 March 2017 at 7:04 pm #

      Not quite sure what you mean there, Shomen.

      After filtering the data, Japan was in profit in all five previous seasons – perhaps check the 2016 Campaign spreadsheet again.

      This was one of our ‘perfect’ systems built on five consecutive profitable seasons. No gamble there.

      Away wins has been a target for us in Japan for 2-3 seasons now.

  4. Attila
    6 April 2017 at 12:31 pm #

    Hi Right Winger!

    You said you use the highest closed odds. Its Ok, but my question is: Which bookmakers’ odds? Because on the page Oddsportal there are many soft and small bookmakers for example 1xbet, Marathonbet, Tempobet etc.. who give the highest odds on the market. Why?
    Because the are very slow and they can not follow quickly the oddsmoving.
    Also I would like to know, from which bookmakers odds do you choose when you make the HDAFU tables?

    Thank you!

    • Right Winger
      6 April 2017 at 1:21 pm #

      Hi Attila,

      Thanks for your comment.

      Yes, we use Oddsportal odds but we are also aware of the technical glitches they have.

      Indeed, all sites using API’s to record odds at specific times have problems.

      Certain bookmakers on Oddsportal do not update properly. This can create a situation where a firm’s opening odds never update and end up appearing as their closing odds too. They then stick out like a sore thumb in comparison to the closing odds of others around them.

      Because of this, Oddsportal highest odds at close of the ante post market need to be checked for accuracy. When recording them we use over-round calculations as an indicator of anything that needs to be double-checked.

      Getting accurate odds representative of any one moment in time during the ante post market is the biggest challenge for anyone when compiling data for analysis.

      We have no choice but to use Oddsportal’s compulsory set of 20 bookmakers or so, added to which, are another 10 of the larger, more reliable firms. Our personal portfolio is therefore around 30 bookmakers.

      Many of the problems are caused by Oddsportal’s compulsory list. Problem bookmakers here include Tempobet, Marathonbet, Titanbet, Boylesports, William Hill, to name but a few.

      Contrary to your point about odds moving slowly, I would disagree as no bookmaker wishes to remain with the highest odds on any outcome for any great length of time. They need to keep their books balanced and will dip in and out of the market according to the weight of money they receive from the punters.

      If any one bookmaker were to offer best price some way ahead of its rivals, then it would see a lot of money placed on that outcome as punters shop for the highest price. Receiving a flood of money on one outcome leads to more difficulty balancing the other outcomes.

      Low margin bookmakers (e.g. Pinnacle, Marathonbet) rarely offer best price on the favourites – more usual practice is bigger prices on the more unlikely outcomes.

      It is always educational to watch a site like Pinnacle and see how often their prices move – sometimes several times a minute on the more popular games. Compare this with betting exchanges where prices also fluctuate from minute to minute. Of course, betting exchange prices are influenced and led by the bookmaker prices – if this was not the case, we would all be rich, successful and professional arbitrageurs!

  5. Attila
    6 April 2017 at 3:07 pm #

    Thank you

  6. Jamie
    2 May 2017 at 8:00 am #

    Just wondering what would happen next season in terms of updates, do you provide instructions on how to update the tables or would I be required to buy new updated tables?

    • Right Winger
      3 May 2017 at 2:23 am #

      Hi Jamie,

      Updating the tables each season is a major task. You also need reliable historical odds representative of a certain period in time in order to use the tables most effectively.

      We also upgrade the tables each season with improvements or extra features.

      We are therefore sorry that we cannot provide a user manual for people to upgrade the tables themselves. Besides, in terms of the the time it would take to perform such an exercise, it is probably cheaper for our customers to buy the newest versions.

      The updated Winter League tables will be available in late May, early June, when the 2016-17 seasons have ended.

  7. jo
    4 May 2017 at 2:51 pm #

    Hi Right winger,

    I encountered one problem with Marathonbet a few times and will probably have it in the future. The problem is: I check odds in the Oddsportal on the outcomes having potential to bet on, 1 hour before kick off time odds are quite above my top (or below) inflection point I have to bet on across all bookmakers Oddsportal provides. But less than an hour before kick off time odds dropped significantly across all bookmakers except Marathonbet. Odds provided by all remaining bookmakers dropped within my inflection points with an exception of Marathonbet (and sometimes 1xbet is also slow to follow the market). They lower their odds just 0.2 or so during the last hour, while others move their odds down 0.5-0.6 or so. And if odds at Marathonbet are 4.3 and the rest of the bookmakers have 3.8-3.9. I would say Marathonbet is quite off line and what confuses me the most, these odds are available in their site to bet on, so it’s not Oddsportal fault. If my inflection points are between 3-4 should I care about Marahonbet odds or remaining bookmaker odds considering are the odds within my inflection points or not?

  8. Right Winger
    4 May 2017 at 3:55 pm #

    Hello Jo,

    Marathonbet and 1x2bet seem to be so similar in their odds setting that it is difficult to see that they are not connected in some way. There must be some common denominator connecting both bookmakers (apart from the fact they are both Russian).

    My advice regarding the fluctuations in prices between these two and the rest of the market is to trust the majority as your guide. If the indication of the majority is within your inflection points, but you can get a higher price with Marathonbet or 1x2bet, then place the bet at best price with either of these two.

    But be careful, we have experienced situations where, although the prices on their sites are indeed well above the crowd, stakes are sometimes limited.

    This is just a method of attracting ‘quick’ money to help them balance their books, which is essential practise for low margin bookmakers of this nature.

    I am preparing a paper on odds movements throughout the ante post market, which should be available later this year. It will be a vital addition to your knowledge.

  9. Daniel
    5 May 2017 at 6:03 pm #

    Hi Right Winger!
    How do you split the seasons for the mid-season break? Some seasons have their holiday breaks before the official closing of the first round of games (for example, although this changed in this year, the Italian Serie A had their holiday break just before Christmas, until around a week in the beginning of January, but the first round of games was finishing only one week later. So how do you choose when to split the season in a case like this? Is it on the longer holiday break, making the two halfs slightly different in terms of length, or just the official end of the round?
    Thanks in advance for your reply

    • Right Winger
      6 May 2017 at 11:55 am #

      Hi Daniel,

      Yes, it’s the holiday break – sometimes the two halves of a season do differ in length, but only by a few games and this is not likely to have much statistical significance on the results.

      We split wherever the ‘clean break’ is in the middle of a season.

  10. Daniele
    6 May 2017 at 4:00 am #

    Right Winger,

    let’s suppose for a match on the HDAFU analysis two teams have the same odds. How do you ensure the correct calculations when the system have to count favourites and underdogs? How can Excel manage to understand which one is the real favourite? Maybe you just shorten one of the two by a 0.01 to achieve this purpose?

    • Right Winger
      6 May 2017 at 12:00 pm #

      Hello again Daniele,

      If you’re using Oddsportal to check the odds, and the highest odds are the same for both teams, use the Average Odds as a tie-break.

      Whichever team has the higher average odds, make them the underdog, and vice versa.

      I have never seen a match where the highest odds are the same as each other, and where the average odds are the same as each other.

      For the sake of the HDAFU tables, we do occasionally increase the underdog odds by one tick as you suggest, but this happens so rarely that it should not be a statistical concern at all.

      Hope this helps.

Leave a Reply

Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.