Tag Archives: odds calculation

True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)

This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores. International...

True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History

In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet. League Games with H2H History Price: £29.90 WITH...
Stressed-out man being interviewed / Gestresster Mann im Interview

German Bundesliga 2012-2013: Bottom 2 Automatic Relegation Betting Statistics

In our recent article “Who’s going to win the 50th German Bundesliga title?” we analysed the Meisterschale winning chances of each team taking into consideration the previous 49 seasons’ data. We now switch attention...
Cheerful soccer fan girl devoted to Germany / Frohsinniges Fußball-Fan-Mädchen Deutschland gewidmet

Who’s Going to Win the 50th German Bundesliga Title?

With just under 3 weeks to go until the start of the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga season we take a look at the 18 teams in contention for the title and statistically assess their chances of winning the Meisterschale next May. Defending...
Wizard with glowing magical orb / Zauberer mit glühender magischer Kugel

Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012

The end of the month has arrived once again and following 29 match analyses encompassing 67 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our usual reckoning. June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and...
Man and woman heads shown as percent sign / Köpfe von Mann und Frau dargestellt als Prozentzeichen

Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?

The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker. The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Man with measure tape and golden coins / Mann mit Messband und goldenen Münzen

Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays

Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen. Image: Elnur (Shutterstock) Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Smiling business woman with a calculator / Lächelnde Geschäftsfrau mit einem Taschenrechner

Football Betting Permutations: 5 Cup Finals in 5 Days

Slim chance for the favourites? It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea. Having...
Teacher standing near blackboard in classroom / Lehrerin in der Nähe der Tafel im Klassenzimmer

Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues

Both sides of the coin… The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Goal full of soccer balls / Tor voller Fußbälle

Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie

Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals. Image: koya979 (Shutterstock) The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches. From...