Tag Archives: odds calculation
Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays
Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen.
Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)
Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Football Betting Permutations: 5 Cup Finals in 5 Days
Slim chance for the favourites?
It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea.
Having...
Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues
Both sides of the coin…
The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.
Image: koya979 (Shutterstock)
The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.
From...
Similarities and Differences between Stock Trading and Football Betting
Analysing Investments
In the stock market there is a rule of thumb: Buy shares when the stock chart heads in a direction from bottom left to top right, and don’t burn your fingers when the curve is falling from top left to bottom right.
Whether...
Sharp Betting: Sports Betting as a Permanent Source of Income
Fortune Favours the Educated:
There are only three guaranteed ways of making regular, long-term profits from betting:
Arbitrage
Trading
(Both requiring large numbers of transactions for a steady drip-feed)
‘Sharp’ or ‘Value’...
What Does ‘Form’ Mean in Football?
Please Discuss…
Now and again Soccerwidow receives enquiries as to whether we consider ‘form’ in our match analyses and value bet recommendations.
The reader will have to excuse our increasing ignorance of the concept of ‘form’...
Manchester United’s Magical Powers of Recovery
On Sunday, 5.2.2012, millions of football fans around the world witnessed Chelsea leading 3:0 at home after 57 minutes. They subsequently went on to gain nothing more than a draw from a position which had looked completely lost for their bitterest...
What is a Bet? How to Calculate Mathematical Advantage?
It is difficult to believe but, there are plenty of people around who have little idea exactly what a bet is or what is meant whenever I mention being interested in betting or the fact that I run a Web site about online football betting.
Obviously...
Calculation of Odds: Probability and Deviation
Calculating odds is a science, and statisticians/analysts, who can do the job competently, receive good annual salaries (GBP 50k-80k; €60k-95k: Quantitative Analyst).
These jobs are paid so well because the results form the backbone of each...
