Tag Archives: odds calculation
True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)
This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
International...
True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History
In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
League Games
with H2H History
Price: £29.90
WITH...
German Bundesliga 2012-2013: Bottom 2 Automatic Relegation Betting Statistics
In our recent article “Who’s going to win the 50th German Bundesliga title?” we analysed the Meisterschale winning chances of each team taking into consideration the previous 49 seasons’ data.
We now switch attention...
Who’s Going to Win the 50th German Bundesliga Title?
With just under 3 weeks to go until the start of the “Golden Jubilee” Bundesliga season we take a look at the 18 teams in contention for the title and statistically assess their chances of winning the Meisterschale next May.
Defending...
Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 274 Bets, from 07/12/2011 to 30/06/2012
The end of the month has arrived once again and following 29 match analyses encompassing 67 more value bet recommendations, it is time for our usual reckoning.
June was indeed an exceptional month realising a yield of 16.4%. The formulas and...
Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?
The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker.
The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Impact of the ‘Overround’ on Accumulators, Multiple Bets, and Parlays
Betting odds are supposed to reflect the probability (statistical expectation) that a particular event will happen.
Image: Elnur (Shutterstock)
Because bookmakers are profit-making enterprises who offer bets on the market, it is understandable...
Football Betting Permutations: 5 Cup Finals in 5 Days
Slim chance for the favourites?
It has been a busy week in the world of football with the conclusions of many major tournaments across Europe, including the jewel in the crown, the UEFA Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Chelsea.
Having...
Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues
Both sides of the coin…
The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
Judging purely from statistics, watching French league games must be rather boring as there are never many goals.
Image: koya979 (Shutterstock)
The Dutch, on the other hand, tend to have at least five goals in nearly 10% of their matches.
From...
