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How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
A question we often receive from readers is why the Value Bet Detector requires 10 years’ head-to-head (H2H) data and why it is optimised to address matches where there has been a minimum of six H2H meetings in this time frame.
Image:...
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
We often receive queries asking how to calculate odds for league newcomers and why we don’t develop a Value Bet Calculator for league matches involving teams without head-to-head (H2H) history, or their respective last 25 matches being in...
Oddsportal Archived Odds – Identifying and Correcting 1×2 Odds Errors
As we have mentioned before, one of our favourite sites for collecting historical data is www.oddsportal.com, and in our recent article about the concepts for football betting systems we outlined how to set-up an Oddsportal user account and...
Football Betting Odds: Study Comparison Bookmaker vs. Exchanges Odds
It may surprise you to know that when placing a back bet before the commencement of a game, our research shows that more than 85% of Betfair’s odds (at 5% commission) can be beaten by bookmakers whether you are betting on the home win, draw,...
How is Overround Calculated and what are the Benefits of Removing it from the Betting Odds?
Simply put, overround is the bookmaker’s profit margin. Overround percentages vary and usually average between 4 and 7%, depending on the bookmaker.
Although bookmaker odds do not always fully represent the ‘true’ (expected)...
True Odds & Value Detector: International Club Competitions (with no head-to-head history)
This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
International...
True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History
In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
League Games
with H2H History
Price: £29.90
WITH...
Are Odds at Betting Exchanges Always Better than with Bookmakers?
The answer to this question is unequivocally YES and only in rare or extenuating circumstances are odds in betting exchanges priced less than with a bookmaker.
The reason is simple: If the ‘back’ price for an event with a bookmaker...
Understand Odds: Cup Finals and International Tournaments, played at neutral venues
Both sides of the coin…
The ‘true’, ‘fair’ or ‘zero’ odds are all synonyms for those odds which exactly reflect the statistical expectation of an event. For example, the ‘true’ odds for the...
Value Betting – Popular Misconceptions & Common Myths
In many betting forums there are regular discussions and queries about value betting. However, it seems that there are a good number of bettors who believe in myths and indulge false concepts.
Image: Jeff Banke (Shutterstock)
Here are some of...
