Demystifying Betting Myths
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Soccerwidow’s Value Betting Results: 109 bets, from 07/12/2011 to 31/03/2012

Patience and persistence is paying off. Since December 2011, Soccerwidow has published regular match previews and betting recommendations mostly for English Premier League and German Bundesliga 1 games in the German language Betfair blog.

For English language readers, Betfair UK, Australia and Ireland uses our previews and bet recommendations but only for Manchester United matches due to a surplus of authors.
The diagram below shows the profit/loss curve for all 109 bets suggested so far in 38 match previews:

Line graph showing bank growth from 7th Dec 2011 to 31st Mar 2012

Profit & Loss Development of Soccerwidow's Betting Prediction Results up to 31st March 2012

After only 56 bets by the end of February, just three probability clusters (Soccerwidow’s calculations) had hit-rates within the calculated expectations, but a month later, after 109 bets, five of the seven clusters are in line with expected probabilities. We fully expect that after another 100 bets most, if not all, clusters should be very close to equilibrium.

Table showing performance of all bets up to 31st March 2012 banded into probability cluster groups

All Bets up to 31.3.2012 Banded in Probability Cluster Groups

Apologies to all the non-German speakers out there: “bis” means “to” or “up to”, and “mehr als” is “more than”.

The next table is a summary of the betting bank. The initial capital of 50 units is now more than trebled and profit amounts to 122.76 units. This corresponds to a 245.5% proportional increase in the size of the bank.

Table summarising overall performance of recommended bets including yield, return on investment, and value achieved

Evaluation of Recommended Bets up to 31.3.2012 - Bank Growth, Yield, ROI, Mathematical Edge (Value)

Focus on the column P/L per Bet. This column shows an almost constant return per bet which, confirms that the value computations are roughly correct. Firstly, match candidates for betting are sieved through a value filter to ensure a uniform selection process (using our Value Bet Detector Spreadsheet) and afterwards, each bet is individually evaluated before a final selection process is performed.

The initial bank of 50 units has rolled-over 38 times and total stakes (risk) adds up to 824.96 units. The net profit of 122.76 units corresponds to 14.9% of the total stake (ROI – return of investment). Nice work if you can get it!

If you you are not already aware, Soccerwidow has developed a sophisticated Excel spreadsheet which automatically calculates the probability of bet success and whether the odds for the bet carry positive or negative ‘value’. All of our football betting predictions are based on this tool:


The spreadsheet relies on inputting historical results for the game you are analysing in order to see how accurate the odds are being offered by the market. The formulas do the rest and display the value bets available for more than 100 betting options (including Asian Handicap HT and FT), leaving you to decide which ones to include in your portfolio.

Last Update: 31 March 2012

Categories:Case Studies Match Previews Value Betting Academy

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