2 July 2025

33 thoughts on “The Science of Calculating Winning and Losing Streaks

  1. Hi Soccerwidow,

    Thanks for your response.

    Just wondering, is it possible to calculate the likelihood of the statistics occurring?

    For example, in my earlier post Person A is following a method of betting that has a 50% strike rate and places 500 bets in a row on something. According to the formula they can expect to experience a losing streak of 9 bets in a row at some point. Is it possible to calculate the likelihood that the losing streak of 9 will in fact occur? e.g. 95% confident.

    Cheers
    Mark

    1. Hi Marc, just google “Confidence interval”; there you’ll find a good number of mathematical articles on this topic.

  2. Hello I would like to ask a question.

    In 1149 games there are 30 0-0 games. According to the formulas the likely winning streak should be ABS(ln(1149)/ln(0.973))= 237 wins in a row but unfortunately the longest winning sequence is 121.

    Why there is such a huge difference ? Is it because it is likely to happen but actually it will never will ?

    1. Hi Nikos,

      ist all about probabilities… it’s about the “maximum likely” winning or losing streak, not about the real one. The real one can be shorter (as you observed) or in very rare occasions, even longer.

      That article is just to help readers to develop a sense of probabilities.

  3. Hi, just a question. You mention in the article “Then he can risk 2.2% of his bank each time he bets (10 divided by 450). If losing, the stakes will remain constant at 2.2% and, if winning, raised gradually.”

    Does that mean that even when losing and he has less than 450 units that he started he will still continue betting 10 per bet? Or is the stake still again reduce to reach the 2.2% of the new bankroll? I guess it stays the same and it only increases whenever the player reaches a new bankroll high, (for example having now 500 units so that he will stake 11 (500*2.2% =11) and continue to bet 11 even at losses until he reaches a new bankroll high again?

    1. Hi John, sorry for the late reply but I was moving house in April.

      Anyway, you may have already found the answer to your question. If not, here’s an article that goes far deeper into ratcheting and is more recent: Sound Staking: Flat Stakes & Ratcheting It will answer your question in great detail.

      Have a great day and good luck with your betting!

  4. The two formulas you present must have an assumed probability associated with them. For example, the longest expected winning streak is abs(ln(n)/ln(P)). What is the probability associated with “expected” in this case? What is the probability a winning streak exceeding that number is experienced? Or the probability that a winning streak of that length is not achieved?

    Similarly, for your “How many bets is it likely to take before I encounter ‘X’ losses in a row?”, what probability is implied by “likely”.

    Thanks!

    1. With our True Odds & Value Detector you can calculate the likelihood (probability) of an event happening, e.g. the team to win or to score in both halves, etc. In my book Fundamentals of Sport Betting, I explain more about odds calculation and how to calculate the ‘expected’ probabilities of Over/Under goals.

      That should have answered your question: What is the probability associated with “expected” in this case? Look also through this website, I explain it in many articles.

      Your other questions: What is the probability a winning streak exceeding that number is experienced? Or the probability that a winning streak of that length is not achieved? You can also ask: What is the probability to experience several times such a long winning or losing streak? – or – What is the probability to experience them several times in a row?

      Toque, we are speaking here about probabilities, about something to be ‘likely’, never certainties… Of course, you can calculate that stuff but it really doesn’t make sense for any betting decisions. This article has been written to raise awareness for the length of winning/losing streaks.

  5. Just want to thank for your articles and website. So well prepared and a really good approach to the whole betting thing. i look forward to order your course soon and learn more!

  6. Hi

    Just wanted to say a big thank you for creating this webpage (science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks) and detailed explanation – I’ve bookmarked the page!
    I’ve googled long & hard for a laypersons explanation of win/lose sequences before I found this. I have no understanding of logarithms but this explanation allowed me for create Excel formula for my own strategies so it’s much appreciated :>)

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