2 July 2025

20 thoughts on “How do Bookmakers Tick? How & Why do they Set Their Odds as they do?

  1. In particular, if a very large bet is placed with one bookmaker, this may be signalled to the others as a way of lowering the price on all the boards. While this method of communication is used less frequently than before, many of the terms persist.

  2. Hi all , I have a question I would like to be answered , I have in recent times delved into the world of tipping and my success rate is above average , my main sport I concentrate on is soccer, there is one area that continues to surprise me though and that is the odds of two teams prior to a match where clearly in all forms of understanding is totally out of place …………….. example team A] all the stats on this team are well below the opposing team …. by this I mean everything from recent form , position on the log , goals for and against ….. and so on …………. team B] as expected are well clear of team A ……… team A ]1.85 ….and team B]3.85 …………. now in the beginning I used to be shell shocked so I then went back to the info on the game and to any level of thinking there is no way on earth team A should be better than team B ………….. low and behold Team A wins ……. now this has continued but over time I have kept those games records and once I considered myself to have enough of them I went through the happenings of each and every game and it was to no surprise to find that there is something rather disturbing about them …… the one major occurrence that happens is the team that `should` have been favorites [team B] gets a red card during the course of the game …………. now the percentage of this fact is astounding …..86% ….believe me that is a monumental percentage considering the amount of games which to make you understand is a three figure number [ simplified …86 out of 100 games the `red`card ] ……. I have of course used this to my advantage and almost never went forward with this question here , …… just to let you know not one of those games were significant enough for either team should they have won or lost …………….. cheers Henry

  3. Hello Soccerwidow!

    I would like to ask that if Bayern Munich playing at home, it’s odds is 1.2, what are professional bettors do before kickof?
    They are trying the back high, and lay low or just simply they are waiting the odds to go out of fair odds range and simply lay them? If they are doing this, they shouls have big patient..

    Thanks,

    1. Hi sarkec, if you are referring to in-play betting then this question doesn’t have a simple answer because it really depends in which direction the odds are expected to move.

      However, if you are into fixed odds betting, and say you have calculated a ‘fair odds’ range between 1.18 and 1.22, and find odds for Bayern Munich of 1.2, then either lay Bayern at 1.15 and hope that somebody will match them after kick off, or back them at 1.25 (or higher).

  4. Hey guys,

    Firstly, I’m really impressed by your site and your diligent replies.

    I’m wondering is it at all common to find overpriced short odds in the 1 x 2 market? Or is it only common for there to be ‘value’ with long odds?

    I’m a beginner. But I want to start placing bets, the thing is I’m a bit scared by the prospect of betting with emotion or looking for upsets and then getting addicted to it. So I’m thinking of using a maths-based system and a more conservative low odds strategy with risk spread across heaps of such, single bets.

    May I also ask, is your value calculator similar to the type that betting agencies use to calculate their estimations of probability (before adjusting their odds for the reasons you outlined)?

  5. Hello Audiendi,

    You can find value in any size of odds – it is not just limited to the longer underdog (or draw) odds. But beware, perennial betting on favourites is a sure fire way to long term bankruptcy.

    The Value & Probability Calculator is certainly a good start for a beginner. It will enable you to analyse individual matches and find value in a large range of bet types.

    Yes, it is a valid method for calculating probabilities, which you must do in order to find value.

    The HDAFU Tables are also a sound method of betting unemotionally, without needing to know anything about the matches in question. It’s all based on maths and numbers.

    The strongest advice we give to beginners is to master things on paper before committing money on a single bet. If you feel you want to rush in and start betting straight away, then you are not mentally ready to make money in the long run.

    Consider also our Odds Calculation Course, which will teach you how to read and understand statistics, and use them for future forecasting. It’s an unique insight into how bookmakers set odds, and if you want to play them at their own game, you will need to know how they operate.

    Good luck!

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