2 July 2025

79 thoughts on “Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics

  1. Working on 3.3.4 now and found some inconsistencies between the questions and the answers. You asked me to post those here, so here goes:

    Question C ii) asks after how many bets the longest winning streak can be expected. However the answer for that question is how long the longest winning streak lasts. Two different things.

    The longest winning streak at 20% and 500 bets is expected to be 4 bets in a row. Using the calculations before that would mean that it is expected to take 625 bets at a hitrate of 20% to hit a streak of 4.

    1. Thanks for pointing out this little slip, we will make sure that when we revise the course we will provide the correct answer to this question.

      Brilliant! You calculated totally right! Well done! 🙂

      Feel free to continue pointing out whatever you find as we are planning to revise the course in November to remove any errors, doesn’t matter how tiny they are.

  2. Hi there, me again 🙂

    Another question concerning value. In the course you seem to favour comparing the Yield to the RSD, however when I look at my calculations I find it far easier (and more intuitive, but that’s personal) to just compare the market odds with the high fair odds based on the probability range.

    Is that perfectly fine as well? Or am I missing some nuance that makes the Yield method more favourable?

    1. Hi Stan, there are many roads which lead to Rome.

      I’m explaining the Yield/RSD comparison in the course, but if you have another method which works fine for you, then there is nothing wrong with using it.

    1. Fig. 12: The back and lay odds in the table are taken from the Betfair screenshot (Fig. 11). I cannot see there any profit/loss calculations. Are we talking about the same course?

  3. Ah, I have the old course, the first edition. Didn’t realise there was a new version out.

    I think what I’m looking for is actually explained in the footnote.

    Profit = investment * value.

    Sorry should have looked closer!

  4. Hello,
    i just finished the reading of your book, and found everything very interesting. I was womdering though if the same principles described in the book could be applied for 1×2 markets. In the specific, analyzing 1×2 data for 5 seasons, extrapolate means and deviation for everyone of them and adjusting the final results with the help of cluster tables build for this type of results. It seems to me that the very same approach could give quite satisfying results, please correct me if i’m wrong.Also i have a question regarding the building of cluster tables. Once i split the clusters into four quartiles based on the HO/AO quotient, how do i figure out the range of odds associated with every quartile? I hope my question is clear anough. Also, when do you plan to release new volumes of the series?

    I hope you will find the time to answer all of my questions.

    Thanks,
    Daniele

    1. Hi Daniele,

      The 1×2 markets are more difficult because there are 3 results instead of just 2. The over/under markets are simply speaking just Yes or No. However, you are right, statistics are statistics. It’s all about means and deviations, plus for the HDA betting about the inflection points.

      Regarding your question about the range of odds… Please have a look in the Cluster Table “Betting Tables” tab. There you will find in the columns D and E the average home odds for each cluster. If this is not enough then you will have to produce you own little table.

      The next volume of the series is going to be predicting 1×2 results, and I really hope that in January/February I will find the time to write this new volume.

      By the way, would you mind to write up a testimonial on the course and post it here on the comment section? We need to increase sales so that we can employ (and pay) someone to assist us to publish this book as a hard copy to be sold on Amazon & Co.

      Many thanks,
      Soccerwidow

  5. Your course has proven to be invaluable. It teached me how to approach to statistical analysis to ensure the understanding of every odd that the bookies price. I am also developing a strategy based on what i learned on the book, and i have been able to create my own analysis tables for every league i am interested in. I am currently running a simulation on betting o

    1. I am currently running a simulation based on finding values, and i have a solid idea on how to support what i have learned in the course with the help of inflection points and odds clusters regarding betting on 1×2. So i want to ask, if i buy the HDA simulation tables am i able to see excel formulas behind the calculations, like in the tables that came with the course? That helped me so much with understanding how to fine tuning this powerful betting tools to my needings! (And my excel competence, too)

      1. Hi Daniele,

        I’m very happy to hear that you are finding the course so helpful, and of course you will be able to see the Excel formulas behind the calculations in the HDA tables. However, please be aware that these are two totally different products. The O/U course teaches odds calculation whilst the HDA tables are simulations “what would have happened when”. There is a course scheduled for next year which goes in depth with 1×2 betting and utilising the HDA tables.

  6. Hello!

    Did you try this method of calculation of goals before producing it?
    If yes, what results did you have?
    I understand the concepts presented in it, but I am very sceptic about getting good results from my value bets.
    Do you think someone can succeed long term with this method?

    Thanks

  7. Hi Soccerwidow,

    in Germany 2010-2015 Over/Under workbook provided password for GD by Team tab is GbT@SW2015. In fact, the real password is GDbT@SW2015. And it’s the same for 2011-2016 Germany Over/Under wb – provided password misses “D”. For Data tab password Data@SW2015 doesn’t work in 2010-2015 wb, but works fine in 2011-2016. I tried some other options, but this time I’m not able to crack it. What is the password for 2010-2015 O/U workbook Data tab?

    1. Hi jo,

      Thanks for making us aware that we provided the wrong password for the GD by Team tab.

      However, Data@SW2015 works fine for me for the 2010-15 file and Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file.

  8. It’s really strange. I even tried Data@SW2015 on untouched copies of 2010-15 file and it doesn’t work, while Data@SW2016 for the 2011-16 file works fine.

    1. Hi jo,

      I just reactivated your purchase. Please re-download the file and see if it works now.

      There was a bug with the passwords and we updated the Excel file in October what was after your purchase. So it should now work fine. At least I hope so. 🙂

      Sorry for any troubles,
      Soccerwidow

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