2 July 2025

23 thoughts on “How to Calculate Losing Streaks & Optimal Bankroll

  1. Hi Soccerwidow,

    I compiled my portfolio for the Winter Leagues.

    Bets / Hit Rate / Yield / LLSe
    59 38,98% 28,40% 8
    65 54,13% 14,59% 5
    124 36,13% 16,25% 11
    43 83,57% 8,33% 2
    102 48,73% 15,12% 7
    145 37,19% 17,47% 11
    62 32,69% 15,36% 10
    24 71,90% 19,42% 3
    69 76,23% 11,45% 3
    102 32,68% 18,30% 12
    86 51,16% 14,87% 6
    37 81,62% 11,38% 2
    _______________________
    918 47,95% 16,17%

    Now I’m wondering what my stake size should be. I have 3000 units as starting bank. I was thinking about 30 units per bet, so 1% per bet and giving your “Stake Ratchet & Stop-loss Mechanisms” from the 2016-17 Winter League Campaign a try. Not really sure how to calculate the perfect stake size for a whole portfolio, because of the high number of bets each week.
    What do you think about this?

    Thank you in advance and greetings
    Lukas

    1. Hi Lukas,

      I’m in the process of finishing an article with the performance of our portfolio for the WL 2017-18 and there is a chapter about ratcheting and bank size included.

      To answer you very short… you have 918 bets expected over the period of approx. 47-48 weeks and you may have probably up to 40-50 bets in any round (week), sometimes less, and probably occasionally even none.

      By limiting the number of the bookmakers you use to 5 you will have in each of them a starting bank of 600. So if you stake 1.5% of your bank per bet that makes 45 units each and allows you to place up to 13 bets with each bookmaker/ exchange.

      Have a look at this direction of thinking… How many bets per bookie/exchange are you going to expect in each round?

      What you want is to avoid to have to juggle too much between bookies/exchanges. Try to keep it simple.

      If in the end you are staking 1.3% of your (total) bank it’s fine. But I wouldn’t do more than 1.5% as otherwise you may find it hard to place all bets at the same time if there are too many in one single period.

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