Arbitrage Betting is ‘Sure Betting’
In the world of sports betting the art of arbitrage involves wagering on both or all sides of an event with the right combination of odds and stakes in place to make a profit whatever the outcome of that event.
The principle of arbitrage is ‘sure betting‘, supposedly with minimum risk (for the seasoned arbitrageur) and long-term, guaranteed profits.
Surely this is the closest you can come to attaining the “Holy Grail” in betting? Or maybe not?
Let’s examine why the reality rarely matches the myth.
If It’s So Good, Why Isn’t Everyone Doing It?
Despite the apparent rewards on offer, the number of professional sports arbitrageurs worldwide is estimated to be in the low tens of thousands — and likely not more. For context, Deutsche Börse AG, which operates the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, employs over 13,500 staff.[1]
But — you may say — RebelBetting? One of the largest providers of automated arbitrage services that claims hundreds of thousands of sign-ups.
Hey! Please think!!!
Most users likely never move beyond trial use, and probably only a tiny fraction operate at the professional level required to sustain long-term profits. It’s marketing talk you’re reading there, not a real report. And notice: RebelBetting holds back its actual user numbers.
In its June 2024 report, RebelBetting states that its users placed over 350,000 bets, generating total profits of €287,000. This sounds impressive, no?
However, the platform does not disclose how many users contributed to these results, what percentage were profitable, or how profits were distributed — making it difficult to assess how many users, if any, are operating at a serious professional scale.
Even assuming the numbers are accurate. Please take your calculator and do — just a little bit — some maths:
- €287,000 ÷ 350,000 bets = ~€0.82 profit per bet
- If an average user placed 500 bets that month, their profit would be ~€410
- That’s before accounting for limits, stake restrictions, errors, or closed accounts
Without knowing how many users were involved, we can’t tell whether this represents 100 professionals earning €2,870 each, or 3,000 hobbyists making just €95. That lack of detail makes the claim informative at best, but far from conclusive as evidence of sustainable professional income.
But one thing you can take for granted from these reasoning is that the number of professional arbers is in the low tens of thousands.[2]
Why may that be?
So, why such a relatively small group of customers taking advantage of the so-called ‘guaranteed’ gains averaging between 1.5% and 3.5% per bet (a typical ‘arb‘ provides around 2.5%), with perhaps 15-25% potential profit on the capital employed each month? That’s a far higher reward than any bank, building society, or share dividend offers!
Is Arbitrage legal?
There is no question that arbitrage is legal because the arber is simply exploiting price differences in the market, effectively buying and selling (bets) as any trader does. There is nothing illegal about this.
However, even when arbitrage betting is legal, since 2020 many countries (especially in the UK and EU) have introduced stricter regulations on online betting platforms – making it now even more difficult for arbers:
- KYC (Know Your Customer) – mandatory identity checks and source-of-funds documentation
- AML (Anti-Money Laundering) – stronger scrutiny of deposit/withdrawal behaviour
- Geo-blocking – limiting access based on user location (VPN use often violates terms)
- Betting limits – faster stake restrictions for accounts flagged as “professional” or “unprofitable”
Even if these regulations don’t make arbitrage illegal, they’ve made it significantly harder to sustain over time without being detected, blocked, or penalised.
Of course, it should be understandable that bookmakers are not fond of arbers — as arbers do not care if they win or lose, do not take any accumulators, and are not available for any of the marketing offers bookmakers use to attract losing customers. And as every company has the right (even arbitrarily) to decide who their customers should be, many bookmakers therefore prohibit arbers from their books. As soon as suspicion is aroused, accounts are quickly limited or even closed.
High Capital Requirement and Personal Characteristics
Successful arbitrage betting ultimately guarantees small returns but the sacrifice is that the process requires large funds. The money is tied-up in the venture for a potentially long period of time.
Pursuing an average 2.5-3.0% profit per betting round and targeting a return of 15-25% of the capital employed per month, the ‘arber’ needs, for example, a starting bank of at least 25,000 € in order to make 5,000 € profit per month.
Wow! A lot of money required at the start to make it worthwhile, and entering the arbitrage arena on these terms will be impossible for many.
Of course, arbitrage betting is a pretty safe investment, but in addition to substantial funds it requires not only great expertise but also some strong personal characteristics to make it possible at all:
- Many time-consuming calculations must be performed. Ouch, lots of maths!
- Clear and complete records of every transaction must be kept. How boring!
- Discipline and consistency has to be maintained at all times. Far too unsocial!
And lastly, a really stable, reliable and fast internet connection is essential, without any limitations to any bookmaker or exchange worldwide.
However, the average punter is perhaps not such a ‘professional’ investor, but bets for fun and/or the excitement of watching an event knowing that money is riding on the outcome. Of course, he hopes to profit from the wager but his are gambles, not investments. Is that the reason why there are so few ‘arbers’ out there and active in the market?
Sports Arbitrage Betting – Cost and Effectiveness
Although arbitrage is legitimately described as “risk free”, it is still not absolutely free of risk as our article risks of arbitrage betting and solutions explains.
One ‘arb’ gone wrong can cost the profits of approx. 20 successful ‘arbs’. Therefore no more than 5% of the available capital should be used per arb. This means that of our total working capital of 25,000 €, approximately 1,000 will be employed per arb, earning between 20 and 35 € each time.
Do not underestimate the effort necessary to live from arbitrage betting!
To achieve a profit target of 5,000 € monthly, approx. 250 (!) successful arbitrage trades per month are needed and assuming 20 working days per month (with enough games to trade), around 12 trades per day are necessary, including recording, accounting and monitoring. Professional arbitraging is definitely a full-time occupation.
In addition to the time requirements, for anyone thinking of becoming a professional arbitrageur several other considerations need to be made:
- The arber’s place of residence should ideally be in a country where betting and the use of betting exchanges is actually permitted.
- By its very nature the job is anti-social and involves long hours on the computer, perhaps working at odd times of the day (or night).
So, arbitraging, it’s not just hard work — it’s isolating, repetitive, and high-pressure and, in addition, attaining significant, tax-free arbitrage profits usually takes several years of experience until a knowledge level is reached where a comfortable living can finally be made.
Here, we are talking about an annual income in the region of 50,000-70,000 €.
Whether this level of fortune is worth the effort and the sacrifices necessary, or if it represents success at all, is down to the individual to decide.
It is therefore a very personal decision if sports arbitrage betting is actually worthwhile pursuing…
Arbers may need to act below the radar of most bookmakers
There are very few bookmakers who openly welcome arbers as customers and Pinnacle Sports is one of the few we can name with any confidence.
Therefore, it may be necessary to act below the radar of most bookmakers and use a friend or family member as “a front”. In other words, registering with bookies using different names and/or different IP addresses. And while technically legal, using fronts or VPNs may violate terms and risk withheld balances.
There are probably many other ways to fool bookmakers regarding your true identity, but any such method is likely to increase your risks and costs.
The ultimate penalty is having an account closed by the bookmaker. This could be made worse if they decide to retain your account balance on the grounds that you have broken their rules and regulations, leaving you in a quandary of how to get it back. This in turn could result in several bookmakers black-listing you, making it difficult to re-enter the arbitrage arena online.
Conclusion
The market place for arbitrage transactions is comparatively small. There are hundreds, likely approaching 1,000, active online bookmakers worldwide—though only a few dozen are major players with significant market share. The vast majority operate on a much smaller scale, and most are hostile to arbitrage bettors. Stake limits, account closures, and geo-blocking are now routine responses to detected arbitrage activity.[3]
Arbitrage betting is a balancing act of pursuing a perfectly legal occupation but to be permanently treated as an ‘unwanted’ customer. Moreover, the potential income is perhaps limited to a maximum of 50,000-70,000 € per annum due to bookmaker stake limits, own capacity, betting bank size, time constrictions, etc.
Before you decide to give arbitrage a go please consider carefully whether it is in fact a good use of your time to learn and master. There are other things you can do to learn a new trade and make money in a profitable, but more socially acceptable way.
If you are curious about arbitrage betting then it may be worthwhile checking out the experiences of a professional trader: Alan Seymour’s Sports Arbitrage Review. Alan has been arbing since 2002 and his blog describes his experiences both honestly and openly. Really great advice on his site!
Sources & Reasoning:
[1]Deutsche Börse AG. Annual Report 2022, p. 52
[2]🔍 Assessing the Claim: “Low Tens of Thousands of Professional Arbers Worldwide”
- RebelBetting’s Claim on their Mainpage
>>> This is a cumulative figure, not concurrent users.
According to RebelBetting’s own June 2024 report, users placed over 350,000 bets and earned €287,000 in profit, meaning a profit of €0.82 per bet. Without knowing how many users were involved, we can’t tell whether this represents 100 professionals earning €2,870 each, or 3,000 hobbyists making just €95 each.
- Forum and Community Data
Long-standing arbitrage forums like Arbusers or Smart Betting Club show thousands of posts, not tens of thousands of active professionals.
Most posts involve beginners or semi-pros. Very few document full-time income success.
- Bookmaker Behaviour
Most online bookmakers ban or limit arbers precisely because it’s a threat — but only in volume.
Industry interviews (e.g., Joseph Buchdahl, Pinnacle blog) suggest that serious arbers are a known but manageable minority — not hundreds of thousands.
- Comparison to Financial Arbitrage
Even in high-frequency trading, where tools are more accessible and regulation is stronger, true arbitrageurs are specialised and rare — generally concentrated in top firms or hedge funds.
[3]🔍 Reality Check
- “Likely approaching 1,000 bookmakers”
A database like Top100Bookmakers lists 946 active bookmakers as of June 2025.
IBISWorld reports 4,922 global casinos & online gambling businesses as of 2023, an increase of 2.9% from 2022.
→ So, the total number of bookmakers lies somewhere between several hundred and a few thousand.
- “Only 50 are of any real size”
Data on daily visits (Top100Bookmakers) shows a handful of operators with high traffic — such as Bet365, Betway, and Hollywoodbets.
TalkSPORT’s evaluation of the UK recognised about 15 major UK bookmakers.
→ The “rule of 50” holds as a reasonable heuristic: a small number of large operators dominate, while the rest are much smaller or niche.
- “Majority do not want arbers as customers”
Consistent bookmaker behaviour (e.g. geo-blocking, account closures, stake restrictions) is well-documented across forums and professional accounts.
While not every bookmaker posts formal policies publicly, the reported behaviour is widespread.
→ No single source quantifies this, but the claim aligns with industry norms and bookmaker communications to customers.
This article was originally published in July 2014 and has been fully refurbished and updated on 15 June 2025. If you have questions, observations, or would like to share your own experience with arbitrage betting, feel free to leave a comment below. Thanks for reading.
Hello friend. I like the post becuase you support Arbitrage betting. It is offcouse legal process. Thanks for the requirement and personal characteristics you mentioned in the blog. You technique is good. Thanks for all the information.
50-70k / annually? Well, you can make much more. I made 280k in my first year (€) and 430k last year. Arbitrage Betting is best business on earth.
Emre, but how?
please tell me are you still going ? Im very interested .
can you email me .
ermer , please tell me more about to get involved with 20 k .
Hello Emre….
Could I just make you a few questions??
What arbitrage betting software are you using?
The top 3 betting softwares?
Did you have many problems with the bookies limitating or closing your accounts?
Could you please tell me the top 10 bookies you are using to do arbitrage trading?
Thank for your help you and best regards.
well emre , i am afraid i do not believe you , i have made over 2700 arbs trades , i have my owh software program scanning 22 of the better sportsbooks for quite a few different wager types and sports and i am sure you cannot make that sort of money.
one reason why i say you are kidding us is i suggest it would be impossible to keep track of the number of trades you would have to make to make this sort of money , tell me , how much time a day do you spend checking that the bookmaker actually put your winnings into your account with him ?
in my opinion arbing is a part time money earner , a boost to you regular income only and in this regards it is as good as anything else on the net.
there are 7 bookmakers , real bookmakers , not mickey mouse ones like 10 bet , bet365, betway , blue square etc that do not care if you are an arber or not , they have worked out quite successfully that a bet from an arber is absolutely no different to a bet from anyone else , it either wins or loses , the fact that you have another bet with another bookmaker has nothing to do with them , it will either win or lose also.
good luck in arbing to you all , donar
can you say what the bookies are please I have tried many and been limited in very quick time
Hi Donar. Can you let me know what 7 bookie sites you are using as the best ones? What amount if capital is realistically needed to make $1-2k per month? Also, how can I get the software you are using? I totally understand this isn’t a get rich quick deal, so I am just looking for some real answers. Thank you for your time. Andy
Nice article. Thanks for good info in this blog. One of the ways to make money on the internet is sports arbitrage betting. I would like to recommend you a website there you know more about sports arbitrage & can get list of sports arbitrage for free: myarbets.com
hi soccerwidow, i am interested in what you mean regarding complex maths and cross market arbing , do you mean , mixed asian handicaps /cross market arbs surely not .
i can assure you it is very complex maths alright , far beyond that possessed by most people walking around.
i paid a professor of mathematics in bosnia to make my calc and a lot of money too , with my arbs service program the exact wager amounts required are all given by , i have a variable stake calc , but the mixed arbs are not included in this , do not know how to do it and i am not paying the prof anymore .
we have identified over 200 different m/a cross market combinations , this results in millions of possible wager types.
in one soccer game recently we found 19 different mixed asians and in another we found 16 different asians And these are arbs that 95% of the other arb providers do not scan for , much easier to get ‘on ” when 1000’s of others are chasing the same odds , donar
Hi donar, sorry for the late reply but I didn’t see you question earlier.
Give me one example of one ‘mixed arb’ where you cannot work our the stakes, and I’ll give it a try. If I come up with an easy solution I’ll probably even write an article about it.
Always happy for new content ideas! 🙂
hi , in reply to your message , i have no need to work out the stakes required in a mixed asian / cross market arb , i paid a mathematician in Bosnia some years ago to build me a calculator.
in my arbs program all wager amounts are given , you really do not have the time to fiddle around yourself with calculators , the idea is to get your wagers on as quickly as possible before the odds change.
but i will find a couple of mixed asian arbs and the stakes required and put them in another message , see if you agree with them , but please do not ask me to tell you how the stakes were arrived at , i am relying on my calc , the guy in Bosnia was a Professor of Mathemaics
thanking you , donar
hi robert ?? i hope this message reaches you ok , i sent a message a couple of weeks ago ?? i wanted to know if it is still ok if i mention my 2 web sites in a post.
maybe you are still on holidays maybe up there around BACCART ? not sure if i spelt the town name correctly , but it is on the OTHER side of the Rhine and up towards Koblensk ?? from Bingen .
i have been to Baccarat , i thought it was a fairyland , a magnificent timber walled village dating back , i think , to the 1200’s , beautifully preserved , if you could let me know about posting ?? thanks don rees
Hi, in Germany there’s a 5%tax and Betfair is forbidden. Do you think it is still possible to do arbitrage in Germany?
hi onur,regarding betfair and them not being allowed in germany , betfair is a betting exchange not a sportsbook , you may well need them for back/lay arbs but not necessarily for any other form of arbs trading.
if you do use the other main exchange , betdaq for your arbs trading make sure the 5% commission payable to betdaq on your WINNINGS has been allowed for in the expected winnings on the arb.
also not sure how you would feel about it , but a good VPN , like HMA or Easy-Hide-IP will fix the problem of not being able to get betfair there ,
we cannot get betdaq in Australia ( they are Irish) , this is a betdaq choice not a government ban but i use HMA and i have no problems getting them , similarly with william hill , cannot get him here either , this is because w hill came to Australia about a year ago and paid something like 650 million dollars to buy 2 or 3 of our biggest books and he does not want to compete here with his own brand.
good luck with your arbing. donar
Hi Andy (@16 September),
Apologies for the delay in replying.
You have the right attitude all round regarding arbing – it is not a full time thing unless you consider $1800-$2000 per month to be worthwhile.
Sure, I will tell you the 7 books that are arbs friendly, but it will not do you much good as you really have to use the bookies the arb service finds the arbs for: 5Dimes; betcris; The Greek; Centerbet; William Hill; Pinnacle Sports; SBObet.
Regarding being limited, the US books seem to be the best, whilst UK books such as Bet365, Betway, Unibet, and a few others are a joke.
I have my own arbs program and aim to start marketing it on Soccerwidow hopefully very soon. I will be charging 30 dollars a month.
For this, you will find back/back arbs, back/lay arbs, mixed Asians, mixed under and overs, biased bets and a few others things. Literally, everything the $150.00 a month guys have.
I will also have another program called “saver bets”, which I believe is a pretty unique service. In my opinion, saver bets are much better than arbs – you place a bet on one team and the 2 or 3 bets required on the other, but these 2 or 3 bets are only enough to cover your stake on the first one if it loses. If the first bet wins, then good – the return will be better than an arb. If it loses you get all of your stake money back – it is a genuine risk free bet proposition AND because the % returns will definitely be better than arbs, we should be able to “round off” our stakes on 2 and 3. (The bookies find you as an arber because of the “FUNNY” bets we have to make – I mean, who but an arber places stakes such as 479, 343, etc.?).
The saver bets will be available as a stand-alone program, and at this stage I am not sure of the cost but it will be around 50/60 a month.
Regarding starting capital it is very hard to say. One reason is that you do not know how quickly the bookie will give you your money back. Neither do we know how long we have to wait for each transaction to conclude. In other words, tying you money up in games where the odds make it worthwhile placing bets perhaps a week in advance.
Whatever the arbing arena has in store for you, I think 5k should give you a good start. Try and go for the 2-way arbs at all times: the under/over ‘X’ goals market, or the + & – 0.5 goals Asian handicap market. At one time it was taking me 6-8 minutes to get the 3 wagers needed to play the full-time 1×2 market.
One thing I would like to say is that in my arbitrage program I have all of the arbs listed in a table. One of the headings in the table is “more arbs” – if you click this you will get a list of other bookies who have odds either the same as those in the tables or very close to those odds – maybe a tick difference or sometimes less. If you use this facility the chances are you will see a book where you already have money stacked up, and you can take the arb with him. Sometimes, it might be for slightly less return, but it may suit you to do this.
Here is an example of a “saver” bet: the odds are not realistic but I will use them as they are easy to work out in your head and serve to illustrate the point.
If in a tennis match we have player A & player B:
Player A has odds of 2.00 – we wager 500.00 to win 500.00
Player B has odds of 5.00 – we wager 168.00
If A wins, we win 500 less our stake of 168 on B = a net win of 332.00
If A loses, our bet on B wins: 168.00 x 4.00 = 672.00, which is almost our total stake (500 + 168) so, effectively, we have a free bet on player A.
Of course, the ideal thing in a saver like this is to do it also in reverse: put 500 on Player B, then a ‘saver’ bet on A, which in this case will be 500. If B wins, (and the underdog does occasionally win), our net win will be 1000.00.
Regards and good luck, Don
Maybe I’m really dumb but I can’t understand why bookies are unhappy with arbers as long as they split the bets w/different bookies. Each individual bookie makes makes his commission. It’s an industry problem–not an individual bookie problem. But maybe I’m missing something.
The problem w/arbing, I find, is that there are so few opportunities & such small margins of profit that if even one online site doesn’t pay it can wipe out almost a year’s profit. I live in the US & that’s a problem for me. I don’t know who can be trusted & have no recourse if things go bad.
The math of arbing is simple. I explained it to my 14 y/o granddaughter & she understood it & she tells me she’s not good at math.
Hi Donar,
Regarding your Saver Bet and going by decimal odds, player A has a 50% chance of winning & player B has a 20% chance of winning giving you and arb profit of 286 regardless of outcome using you 500 + 168 initial bet, giving you a 42% return. Going by your saver bet you get a return of 500/668= 74% return, but this will happen only 50% of the time. Now for instance a compounded return of 42% over 10 bets gives you 3333% return whereas 74% return only half the time ie. 5 bets gives you 1594%. This seems like a losing option to me.
Unless you mean by your saver bet:
Player A odds are @ 2.0 and player B odds are at roughly the same.
Put 500 on A to make 500, but as game progresses player B gets the upper hand and you want to hedge your bet to break even? But here player B’s odd will deteriorate with time exponentially and we look to hedge when player B’s probability of winning is 80%, this hedge will then cost 2000. Tying up 2500 of capital.
I think this could be plausible but not for large bets and also a there is a risk of hedging too early.
Last option odds for both players are roughly 2.0.
Bet on A, and as A looks like winning B’s odds will drift and then back B guaranteeing a small but safe profit. But given player A’s odds are 2.0(50% prob) this will only happen half the time ie. player B’s odd will shorten and then you are back to hedging. Either way you are looking at small profits and time consuming strategy, unless you are selling a high frequency trading bot?
For me its sports arb, high frequency live betting, or just calculate your own odds, look for deviations with book makers and backing when you have a positive expected return and hedge some of losses where possible.
I am starting to put more time into betting strategies and developing algorithms, i would love to hear any thoughts and debate on this going forward as it will help us all learn.
Robert, they are unhappy with arbers because they are worried about anything that looks like a system.
as you say as long as the bets are between 2 or more bookies , and this is a must anyway , any time you see an arb with the same bookie forget it , one of them is a mistake and the bookie will wake up and void the bet.
there are books on the nett that do not care if you are an arber or not , indeed the best book around , pinnaclesports has at the top of their odds tables ” arbers welcome “, or something similar, this may actually be a good thing , as most people accept that pinny is the best on the nett , other bookies may have another look , realise they are not being robbed and start accepting arbers also .
the asian books are reputed to be tolerant to arbers , i have read that if someone wins from them regularly they do not ban or limit them , they assume there is something wrong with their system , to ban or limit someone , or not to pay someone is a matter of losing face , a great idea i think .
also i think sports arbitrage trading must be one of the most mis-understood programs possible, here in Australia we have 6 states , every state has a state government that has a FAIR TRADING DEPARTMENT and everyone of of these says that ” sports arbitrage is a scam ” I have sent more than one email to them pointing out that what they say is incorrect , they do not even answer.
their mistake is in assuming that every sports arbitrage trading program requires a customer to lodge money with them 10,000 dollars etc and THEY trade arbs for you , guarantee you an enormous monthly % win , and people actually give them money , of course they never see it again, and our dear pollies etc think that is the only way sports arbitrage trading is carried out and of course this is a scam , good luck with your future arbing , donar
How can they logically say arb betting is a scam? The bookie makes you an offer & you accept it. That’s a scam? My problem is I’m in the US & I don’t know which books can be trusted. If they rob me I have no legal recourse.
Many accounts are needed (kneaded) to do arb betting & the profit margin is so thin that if just one robs you it can wipe out a few months profit. I can probably make more money with a bad job.