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Man receives money from hand within laptop screen / Mann bekommt Geld von einer Hand aus einem Laptop

Liquidity at Betting Exchanges – Which are the Best?

For serious bettors and professional traders, betting exchanges are the most convenient and reliable platforms. Bookmakers are often very quick to limit stakes and/or close accounts of successful customers, or void individual bets or even whole...

Football Betting Odds Calculation Course – How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals

Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section....
Woman holding bank notes close to her face with a calculator and bills in the background / Frau hält Banknoten an ihr Gesicht mit Taschenrechner und Rechnungen im Hintergrund

The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping

One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Percent cubes, 3D image / Prozent-Würfel, 3D-Bild

Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained

Introduction The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
Traditional bookmakers betting shop / Traditioneller Buchmacher Wettshop

Value Betting versus Gut Feeling

Surprisingly, it seems that there are many sports bettors who make their selections in much the same fashion as the multitude of people who select random numbers on their weekly lottery slips. Whilst the lottery player may opt for personal numbers...
Man with calculator sunk into a heap of paper / Mann mit Taschenrechner versenkt in einem Papierhaufen

How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting

Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance. When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
A pile of white dice / Haufen weißer Würfel

What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?

A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size. This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...

1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history

The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history). The data set represents a statistically significant...
Suspended business woman clutching calculator / Hängende Businessfrau umklammert Taschenrechner

How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion

A question we often receive from readers is why the Value Bet Detector requires 10 years’ head-to-head (H2H) data and why it is optimised to address matches where there has been a minimum of six H2H meetings in this time frame. Image:...
Lay Draw EPL 2008-09 to 2011-12

1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW

Numerous Web sites and forums pay homage to the Lay The Draw strategy with prolific threads from supporters claiming to have found extremely lucrative 1×2 betting systems. Therefore, I have decided to explore lay the draw betting in detail...