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How to Calculate Losing Streaks & Optimal Bankroll
In this article we will teach you to determine how large your starting bank needs to be to avoid bankruptcy by calculating the longest losing streaks that can be expected from your chosen betting strategy.
What is Bankroll Management?
Bankroll...
The Gambler’s Ruin Explained – Fair Coin Flipping
One of the phenomenons of probability is Gambler’s Ruin. The most common meaning is that a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected zero value to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent...
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Introduction
The terms probability, expectation, likelihood, chance and hit rate are all closely related, and express more or less the same thing. The difference is that before a game one talks about ‘chance’, ‘probability’,...
How to Calculate Average Odds in Football Betting
Sometimes it is necessary to figure out the average odds from a set of betting odds which can then be used as the basis for further calculations. For example, computing deviation and variance.
When using odds in European format (decimal) you...
What is the Ideal Sample Size for Accurate Predictions?
A common problem faced by data analysts is to decide upon the required sample size.
This can be estimated by using various calculations and distribution functions. However, even if a statistician is readily available, the answer is not necessarily...
1×2 Full-Time Table of Records – Value Bet Detector with H2H history
The 1×2 Full-Time table of records is a compilation of HDA data from 417 completed Value Bet Detector spreadsheets from 24 countries around the world. (League games with H2H history).
The data set represents a statistically significant...
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
A question we often receive from readers is why the Value Bet Detector requires 10 years’ head-to-head (H2H) data and why it is optimised to address matches where there has been a minimum of six H2H meetings in this time frame.
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1×2 Betting System: Analysis of HDA Data and Strategy Development – LAY THE DRAW
Numerous Web sites and forums pay homage to the Lay The Draw strategy with prolific threads from supporters claiming to have found extremely lucrative 1×2 betting systems. Therefore, I have decided to explore lay the draw betting in detail...
Calculating Odds for League Newcomers is Unpredictable
We often receive queries asking how to calculate odds for league newcomers and why we don’t develop a Value Bet Calculator for league matches involving teams without head-to-head (H2H) history, or their respective last 25 matches being in...
Correct Assignment of Football Data to Levels of Measurement
In statistics, information is collected using qualitative or quantitative data. The collected data is then organised using scales or levels in order to classify the data correctly because not every set of data is of equal value and can be analysed...
