In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Also, what’s that column S? I understand it sometimes automatically puts ‘back’ or ‘lay’ there, but on what criterias?
And is it normal that there is Lay in column S for Homewin, but the correct score the spreadsheets predicts is actually 2-1 Homewin?
I hope you understand what I mean 😀
(1) The formulas are not hidden so you can see the criterias. This is our personal strategy to pick the bets for our articles. Feel free to change the formulas suiting your personal strategy.
(2) Yes, this happens. For example, the correct score prediction may be 2-1, and the probability for the home team to win calculates, say, to 60%. Imagine the market offers a price for the home team which translates to 70%. This is a lay-value-bet despite the home team having pretty good chances to win the match because in approx. 40% of the cases they will not win, and therefore one can expect a long-term profit.
were to get good h2h stats that i can copy and paste quicky?
Betexplorer
You need to highlight and copy the whole H2H table, including header and the summary stats rows at the bottom. Then it works without a hitch. If you try to copy only a part of the table you’ll get the data into one cell in Excel, and this is not really helpful.
this does not give hta or hth figure so it useless. i need a copy and paste solution as this is taking around 2 hours for 1 game which is no good.
also what is the password. i am getting angry with this. it is not letting me add any away data without a damn password
Betexplorer is a copy & paste solution. For the HT results click on ‘details’ of the matches. However, the HT figures need to be entered manually.
With some practice, this whole exercise takes 5 minutes max.
Very rarely Betexplorer may not have all HT results. Another good source is Soccerbase.com. Unfortunately, although this site has more stats, it’s not as easy to use as Betexplorer.
We use these spreadsheets ourselves, and data collection is done within 10-15 minutes.
I find the best solution is, if You type into google “h2h statistics” -> the 3rd result will be the h2h statistics page from wettpoint.
Access the site and type the names of the teams to get the h2h stats. Wettpoint will display them neatly ordered by date, competition Fulltime and Halftime results alltogether.
Info obtained by cuortesy of Soccerwidow.
Thank you very much for answering every question so thoroughly, Soccerwidow.
I have a whole new view on betting now after reading your blog/site.
And I think I have asked most of the questions I have had in my mind and can now start focus on picking out some good value bets 😀
Just checking in lol
Hope your well, Took me some weeks but I THINK im back on track. Have gathered lots and lots of data and after sifting through all of it piece by piece I have a couple of value strategies that I have been following.
In 4 weeks iv had a ROI of 25%. It hasnt been plain sailing, before I was able to get my data I was betting blindly on value bets I simply picked myself across different markets, I never made any decent returns until the eureka moment finally came.
Im sending you a picture of a graph that covers the last 4 weeks for me. Tell me, is this to be expected? is this normal and is it viable to continue like this? Because that excites me…
Any value bets that fit the system are bet like this. Over 52% winning chance is backed or layed with liability of £100, any bet in the system below 52% gets backed or layed with a liabilty of £50. So with bets of £50 & £100 I have a profit of £2,710 from an investment of £10,500 over 117 bets giving me yield of 25.8%.
Can I expect this to continue? Is the graph normal? I only ask as there isnt much fluctuation, its a graph that makes my hairs stand up but I can assure you, it is a true representation of the strategy ive been covering lately.
Your graph looks good – typical of a sound value betting system!
25.8% is a fantastic return but I would like to see 500 bets performed before suggesting you are on to a winner.
Without knowing exactly what your strategy is I can’t really provide any firm comments, but am happy we’ve helped expand your thinking about ‘value’ betting.
I would also suggest that you maintain the current staking plan until the end of the season before you consider any form of proportional increase (ratchet). We have experienced very similar curves to yours and then seen a drastic dip in fortunes, so the great start you’ve had is by no means a guarantee of continued success.
You sound happy though and I am pleased for you!
This is perhaps an open question to everyone. How do you select which of the bets highlighted by the spreadsheet that you consider to be “valuable”? Do you bet on all where ‘value II’ is positive, regardless of win probability? Does anyone have any “minimum” levels?
Asecond question, possibly directed more at soccerwidow. I find the spreadsheet generating a far larger number of lay bets than it does back bets. Is this normal?
The formulas in cells O18 to O20 are highlighting the lays and backs according to our personal selection criteria which we were using for the match previews (German Betfair Blog). Have a good look at the formula. It’s picking the minimum or maximum, and then comparing the averages of the calculations, and making a choice.
We do not bet on every game. This is our personal strategy when selecting bets, but there are millions of other strategies. Everybody has his or her own.
You need to change/adjust the formulas in O18 to O20 according to your personal selection criteria, e.g. choosing the matches with the highest value to back or lay. The cells are not protected, and you can change the formula in whatever formula you prefer to use.
Good day Soccerwidow,
I hope I find you and the other half well, hoping you had a wonderful Christmas & new year.
I did say I would hold off from bothering you until Feb. Well as were nearly there I thought I would jump the gun & keep you up to date on where I’m at… I’ve again copied a list of my bets, all strategies mixed together to forge nearly 500 bets. (You did say to come back when I have 500 bets) – see chart
You will notice my strike rate is in perfect line with the True Odds Predicted rate. After nearly 500 bets I’m amazed at being within 0.09% of the True Odds marker.
My question is related to my hit rate, as you will see overall my strike rate is 86%.. I toyed around with a rate between 65-75% but the more losses where affecting my mindset. In your opinion what strike rate should I be looking for, I had in my head 67% for some reason and tried to attain that with certain markets, although playing U1.5, U4.5 & the CS markets brings up the rate.
It really depends on your personal preferences. As you are saying yourself, the many consecutive losses in the lower clusters (65%) were affecting your mindset. Hence, it seems for you perfect to stick to the 85%+ probability bets.