In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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0% VAT to Non-EU customers
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
Hi,
I have purchased the value calculator with Asian handicaps. I’m not sure if I’m understanding the Asian handicaps section correctly,
Hi,
I have purchased the value calculator with Asian handicaps. I’m not sure if I’m understanding the Asian handicaps section correctly. Basically, I can enter the odds for the various handicaps for the home team, but the away side handicap odds I cannot – apparently due to the cells where the odds would be input being protected.
Is this right, or can these cells be unprotected so I can input the odds?
Thanks
P.S my previous attempt to post this message cut it off midway through. Sorry.
Column AQ calculates automatically as the ASH is a simple Yes/No bet.
So, if the odds for the home team are 2.5 (40%), then the odds for the away team have to be 1.67 (60%).
Anyway, I’m going to email you the passwords then you can unprotect the sheets and change whatever you like.
Please ask whatever you like to know, and if the question requires a whole article I will probably even reply in form of an article. 🙂
However, please try to formulate your questions as specific as possible. What exactly do you find difficult to understand?
Hi, I just bought the Value dectector, how do I change the HDA in the grey cell?
The following videos should help you master the Value Calculator spreadsheet:
Introduction to the Value Calculator
How to prepare data for easy copying and pasting into the Value Calculator
How to input best odds available to you into the Value Calculator
How to input all other data into the Value Calculator
Hi,
This may have come up already, if so, apologies.
My question would be about the teams that were promoted in to a given league in the current season (e.g. Burnley or Middlesbrough in England promoted to PL ).
When they play against any team should I use the this seasons PL matches plus the previous seasons second league matches if there is a proper amount of H2H matches? Or do I leave out these matches entirely?
Thank you.
Hi zoltan, you’ll have to leave these matches. Sorry!
Sample Size Matters!
Deviation plays a vital role in analysing football statistics. This is a measurement for the distribution of an estimator function (i.e. estimating what is likely to happen in the future). If you mix two different seasons then you increase the error rate!
Hi,
Thank you for the above.
I have another question about HDA part in the Value Calculator table. At the U/O goals part you have to compare the Value 2 to the league Rel SD.
Does this mean that if I calculate the HDA Rel SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals then I can use it to compare to the Value 2 in the Value Calculator and if it fits the other 2 criteria ( high enough probability and a proper quotient) then I have value bet?
Thank you.
Hi zoltan,
betting on 1×2 results is far more complicated than just betting on over/under goals. Firstly you have with OU’s only 2 outcomes, either it’s over or it’s under. And secondly, it doesn’t matter which of the teams scores the goals. This is far more predictable that a 1×2 result.
Furthermore, 1×2 odds are often manipulated by the bookmakers who have to take public opinion into account. Our HDA simulation tables show this visually: Betting on so-called favorites constantly leads to loss for the bettor. In addition, it really makes a difference if there is a team involved in the game with a high probability to win with a lead of 2 or more goals. And there are many more things to consider.
You can certainly use the VC as a starting point and calculate the HDA SD the same way it is calculated with the number of goals and check against all the criteria described in the OU course. In addition you will have to factor in the goal differences.
Good luck! 🙂
Hi,
Another question. Could you please explain how the O/U section work in the VC table?
I see the real odds for Over X goals on the right side but I see no Value 2 for that only a value 1. Should I calculate it by hand and compare it to the Value 1 or there is another method to find the Over X bets?
Thank you.
Hi Zoltan,
you will have to calculate it by hand (or personalise the VC and e.g. add an additional column with some formulas).
Hello,
I bought the VC, but while changing H2H stats, i was asked to re-type a pw. Could you guys please e-mail it to me, so I can edit the H2H section.
thanks in advance
Hi Jaysmoove, I just emailed the passwords to you.
Good luck with the VC!
Hello Soccerwidow,
For the H2H data, if the Cup games involved ET and penalty, does the full time score includes Extra Time and penalty as well? or just the 90 minutes score?
Thank you
Hi JW,
Just the 90 minute full-time scores – don’t include extra-time or penalties. The league games we look to analyse with the Value and Probability Calculator are purely 90 minute affairs and we therefore compare on a like-for-like basis.
Good luck and thanks for the question.
My question is in regards to calculating the Yield and Profitability Quotient for a potential Lay Bet.
Value I will be a negative number due to the best odds being less than the true odds. This would lead to the Quotient also being a negative number.
When calculating the Quotient for Lay Bets should I ignore the negative in Value I (assuming of course that Value II is good) in order to determine the Quotient?
Hi Darren, the formula for the mathematical advantage (Value I) returns a positive number if the market odds are higher that the Zero odds, and it returns a negative number if the market odds are smaller than the Zero odds. If it’s positive it’s a potential back bet, and if it’s negative a potential lay bet.
Sorry that I didn’t point this out in greater detail in the O/U course. This is certainly something I will have to review when overhauling the course.
So, if the formula for Value I returns a negative figure then, in order to judge if it’s a worthwhile bet to consider, you’ll need to continue your calculations using the absolute value (remove the negative sign). Otherwise you use everything else exactly as explained in the course. Try to find bets with the highest profitability (Value I) achieved by an acceptable Yield (Value II) – O/U course, pages 124++
Thanks for the clarification Soccerwidow.
You’ve a great site, fabulous resources and the products I’ve purchased are exceptional.
Thank you
Hi Soccer Widow, I love your back-story and it has helped my wife to be more accepting of my attempt at mapping out a betting strategy that’s profitable.
I recently purchased the VC with ASH and am enjoying exploring its features and functions.
I have tried to trawl the previous comments to avoid asking a repeated question, but just to clarify, do we remove the league h2h instances from the home and away tabs seeing as they will be covered in the h2h section? Or do we leave them in? Which way does the VC’s calculations benefit from?
Also I see people requesting the password to change the away team’s ASH odds as they are calculated automatically and usually different to the bookies odds, as well as other modifications. May I request these passwords please? 🙂
Keep up the good work and I’m sure I’ll further pick your brains in the future.
Hi Sam,
Thanks for your questions.
In the head-to-head tab, definitely include all relevant, competitive games between the two teams at the home ground in question, even if this means duplicating one, or possibly two (unlikely to be more), results with the home/away tabs.
The head-to-head tab acts as a correction factor to each team’s last 25 league home or away results, and if some of these have been against each other, and/or they’ve played additional cup fixtures at the same venue, then these are valid statistics, which bring a little more focus to the fixture in question.
Retaining the duplicate information therefore adds more relevancy to the set of data we are using to form our opinions.
It may well be that the two teams in question have played each other more times in the same time scale as our data set than any other team shown in their last 25 home or away games.
This is recent, relevant information and needs to be included, even if the duplicated data makes little or no difference to the eventual calculated values.
You will see a difference when the difference matters, and this could be the difference between a positive or negative bet value, or enough of a difference to push the yield of a bet into your portfolio (when otherwise you would have discarded it).
Regarding the passwords, we don’t give them out publicly, but I have sent you the list by personal mail.
Thanks for your time and trouble contacting us again, Sam.