In conjunction with our regular match previews published in the German Betfair blog we are pleased to present our league match with head-to-head history ‘Value’ bet detector spreadsheet.
with H2H History
WITH Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
(ex VAT; see below)
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Our bet selections are always based on true odds calculations identifying mathematical ‘value’ in the markets. Of course, not every bet can win, but ‘value’ betting is the only reliable method of ensuring long-term betting profits.
‘VALUE’ bet detector: The Excel spreadsheet calculates the ‘true’ odds (= expected probabilities based on historical statistics) and then displays each ‘value’ bet recommendation. For every event included the expected values are calculated, compared to market prices, and finally the statistical probability of winning the bet is shown.
Soccerwidow follows the philosophy that only through identifying bets containing mathematical ‘value’ in the prices offered by bookmakers or exchanges is it possible to make consistent profits.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. The tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of your own predictions, and the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgement.
The Excel spreadsheet offered for sale comes pre-filled with data from the Premier League game Liverpool v. Manchester City on 26/8/2012. Just delete or over-type this to analyse any match of your choosing.
Read a few sample match previews which apply ‘League Games with H2H History’ calculations:
- 26.8.2012 English Premier League: Liverpool v. Manchester City – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 6.8.2012 Norwegian Tippeligaen: Stabæk v. SK Brann – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
- 5.8.2012 Belgian Jupiler League: Zulte-Waregem v. Gent – Statistical Match Analysis & Football Betting Predictions
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
Supporting Videos
Data Sourcing: Learn where to find historical match data and download it from www.football-data.co.uk to make your own Excel store of statistics.
Data Input: Historical match results and head-to-head data input to populate the Value Bet Detector ready for input of the best odds you can find.
Frequently asked questions:
Can I use the spreadsheet in other leagues?
Yes, the calculations apply for any league in the world. The only parameters are that the game in question must be between two teams which have played at least their last 25 home or away games in the same league. The calculations are based on the home team’s last 25 home games and the away team’s last 25 away games, in the same league. Also, both teams must have played the corresponding fixture at least 6 times in the last 10 years (in other words, the home team has hosted the away team at least 6 times in all competitions (not friendlies) in the last 10 years).
How long does it take to enter historical data into the spreadsheet?
This is a manual procedure and you will quickly find which sources are best for the full-time and half-time results of both teams in the 25 matches to be analysed, plus the head-to-head encounters. We recommend Football-Data, Betexplorer, Oddsportal and Soccerway, although there are a host of other sites specialising in historical statistics.
At the start, you will find data collection will take about 30 minutes per match including entering the best bookmaker odds you can find (try Betfair and Oddschecker).
Are the formulas for the spreadsheet calculations visible?
Yes, we have hidden none of the formulas.
Exactly which historical records do I have to input?
The full-time and half-time scores for both team’s last 25 matches (home games only for the home team, away games only for the away team), plus the same for the head-to-head encounters over the last 10 years.
What knowledge is required?
You should already have a understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is just a tool to identify potential bet candidates. You will need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level, and you should be become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by the spreadsheet.
i try highlighting and deleting but it just deletes the first box and nothing else
Hi Scott, the Value Calculator contains a lot of ‘protected’ cells. The reason behind this is that cells which contain formulas and calculations are not accidentally deleted by the user.
I can certainly email you the passwords for un-protecting the sheets but then you run the risk to lose the functionality if you delete something what is required for the calculator to work.
Hi, I had already bought VD last year. My question is, did you make a back-test after 2012 on the formulas? I know that at this year you had success with 274 bets, bringing around 10% with level stakes. However a lot has changed since then.
Another comment I would like to make is, that you actually really can automate this process. Many more people would be a member here if they would see the results that these bring and also if they would not have to do many manual work. The results and odds are all there in internet, you could just add a page where the picks stay and show the w/l and the yield. You wrote earlier anyways that the other facts such as injuries/financial situations and so on can be ignored. That’s why I really do not understand why you say this is impossible 🙂 Please take this as a friendly suggestion.
Hello Soccerwidow!
Do you know websites from where football data for American leagues can be downloaded?
Thanks,
Hi sarkec,
in the German version of Soccerwidow there is a post which discusses websites for (free) data download: Die besten Webseiten mit historischen Fußballdaten (The best websites with historical football data)
Just use Google Translate, and have especially a look through the comment section. There you will find helpful advice as well as a few links where data can be found.
Hope this helps. 🙂
Thanks,
One more question:)
Do you know where can I find inplay statistics?
for example: Shots on target, shots on goal, corners, etc
Thanks
Sorry, we can’t help you here. We specialize in ante post betting.
Hello!
Did you try finding value in league matches with small liqudity, for ex: Egypt 1, Czech1-2, Poland 1-2, Ukraine, etc?
Do you think it’s worthwile trying at theese leagus where are at least 6 head to head matches were between teams?
Thanks
Hi sarkec,
Poland it’s certainly worth trying, the other leagues we don’t have experience ourselves. Sorry, the market is sooooooo huge and our time soooooooo limited that we mainly concentrate on the EPL and German Bundesliga.
Hi Soccerwidow!
After the game analysing, what do you advise how many hours before the kick off should I
give the odds the spredsheet in? Or when should I bet on the market?
Best regards,
Attila
Hi Attila,
whatever time is comfortable for you personally.
For example, in 2011/12, I was writing match previews for the German Betfair blog, and for this I carried out the calculations 3 days in advance. This was necessary as I had to write the article, send it for editing before it was then published 2 days before kick-off. The only important thing about “timing” is to consistently stick to about the same periods.
It may sound crazy but there are no “influencing factors” that influence the outcome and cannot be foreseen a few days in advance. Otherwise bookmakers could not stay in the business as they offer bets well before the kick-off of a game, sometimes even weeks before the game is due to be played.
Thank you!
One more!
What do you do if you have a prediction with Detector f. e. Italian underdog away, but the HDAFU Italy show this odds range is not profitable?
The HDAFU tables are for system betting, the VC for analysing individual matches.
When you use the HDAFU tables you identify a proftable odds range, and then bet on every match within the set criteria, without analysing these matches individually.
The VC is for calculating the odds for an individual match. As already said, this tool was developed in connection with my articles for the Betfair blog in 2011/12.
What’s the difference between column Q and S?
Column Q I used for recommending dutch bets as I was writing for the Betfair blog, column S for single bets. If both, column Q and S recommend the same, it’s certainly a single bet worthwhile considering.
Hi Attila,
Your name suggests that you are speaking my language.
If you would be interested in changing ideas about Value betting, feel free to contact me at my e-mail adress:
sarkanyszabolcs91 [at] gmail.com
nyugodtan irhatsz magyarul:)
Szia!
Küldtem Mailt!