This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
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The instructional video below concentrates on the 1×2 odds section explaining the calculation of expected odds, and comparing them to market prices.
We also show you where to find records of the opening bookmaker odds and their changes over time, and how to interpret this information.
Later in the video we identify a method of easily identifying matches to analyse with the spreadsheet, those with possible strong discrepancies in their odds, by looking at the money matched and waiting to be matched for bets in the betting exchanges.
This is an educational video, aimed at those who wish to further understand odds calculation, and would like to know how market prices are set.
This video is about: Calculation of 1×2 (Home-Draw-Away) True Odds in UEFA Champions League games & How Market Prices are set
The examples used in the video are the UEFA Champions League matches Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Dortmund vs. Ajax and Manchester United vs. Galatasaray.
Notes: Adjust the picture quality at the bottom of the screen above by clicking on the ⚙ button (to the left of the YouTube logo), then click on ‘Quality’ and choose a higher resolution as desired. Go to full screen mode by clicking on the box symbol (to the right of the YouTube logo).
The spreadsheet can be used to calculate the ‘true’ odds for any match of your choice for international tournaments between individual clubs. The accuracy of the calculations improves if the teams in question have a similar recent history in the tournament under analysis (for example, both team’s last 10 international club competition games have all been in the Champions League).
All you need to do is fill-in basic data:
- the best odds you can find for the various betting options dealt with by the spreadsheet
- the home team’s last 30 home game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
- the away team’s last 30 away game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
- the home team’s last 10 international club tournament home game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
- the away team’s last 10 international club tournament away game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
The team stats can easily be found in sites such as www.soccerway.com or www.oddsportal.com.
Use a combination of an exchange site such as www.betfair.com and www.oddschecker.com for the best odds.
For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the expected probability (statistical mean) of winning the bet:
- Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time
- Draw No Bet
- Win to Nil
- Clean Sheet
- Both Teams to Score
- Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
- Half-time/Full-time
- Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores
- The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds
The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.
Required Acumen
Ideally, you should already possess a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.
However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.
Good Excel skills would also be an advantage.
For beginners we offer a comprehensive course: Fundamentals of Sports Betting: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.
Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.
Hi, i have a problem when opening the football database from football-data.co.uk When i opened it doesn’t have a decent tablet formart instead its just text with comas. Do you know how to fix it?
Hi Yunte,
When you click on the files in football-data.co.uk, instead of choosing to open them, save them instead.
The files are in CSV format on their site (Comma Separated Values). Choose to save the file as an Excel Workbook and you should then be able to see all the information. (You may have to close the saved file and then reopen it).
This should solve your problem.
Thanks it worked. I’ve another question, in LaLiga there are teams that have been relegated (sporting, osasuna and granada) and others have been promoted (levante, girona, getafe). What should i do now with the data of h2h between the teams that are now relegated to LaLiga123 and the new teams in the first division? Hope you understand my question
Hello, what should i do if im trying to calculate a LaLiga match but some teams have descended to liga123 and other have ascended to LaLiga? I won’t have info between the new teams vs the other teams. Hope you understand me 😀
Games with teams that have been relegated or promoted you will have to leave alone. There are too many unknown factors which the calculations in both Value Calculators don’t factor in.
Hi Right Winger,
one additional information: after the download I noticed, that the home sheet, cell E22, is protected/locked by an unknown password (I guess, by accident). There are some tricks to unlock it (what I did) but I wonder that no one else mentioned it here or informed you in the past.
Thank you, acepoint! It’s really odd but your are the first (since 2012!!!) who pointed this marginal error out to us. Probably all other people either found a way round this like you did, or they just didn’t fill in the cell as it’s not necessary for the calculations as cell E22 is within a ‘cosmetic’ column in the home tab.
Anyway, I have just corrected the cell E22 and uploaded an updated version to the store.
Thank you again!!! 🙂
Hi again,
one (hopefully) last question regarding the international sheet. In the video I have noticed, that you count international games twice: at first in the home tab and additionally in the H-international tab. Same for the away team. Is this correct? And what’s the reason for taking these games twice?
Hello again Acepoint,.
In the head-to-head tab, definitely include all relevant, competitive games between the two teams, even if this means duplicating one or two results in the home/away tabs.
The H-international tab acts as a correction factor to each team’s set of home or away results, and if some of these have been against each other, then these are valid statistics, which bring a little more focus to the fixture in question.
Retaining the duplicate information therefore adds more relevancy to the set of data we are using to form our opinions.
It may well be that the two teams in question have played each other more times in the same time scale as our data set than any other team shown in their last set of home or away games.
This is recent, relevant information and needs to be included, even if the duplicated data makes little or no difference to the eventual calculated values.
You will see a difference when the difference matters, and this could be the difference between a positive or negative bet value, or enough of a difference to push the yield of a bet into your portfolio (when otherwise you would have discarded it).
I hope this helps!
Hi Right Winger,
thx for the quick response, but I think you misunderstood what I meant. In the video (min 1:17 you see the CL game Real Madrid vs Ajax in the home tab, in min 2:29 you find the same game in the H-international tab. That is he duplication I was talking about. Anyhow, after reading your answer I guess that putting a certain CL or EL game into both (home and H-international) was on purpose.
Hi Soccerwidow,
How would you calculate odds for this year’s champions league final?
Am I right to assume that you use the last 30 away games for each team , all competitions, and the results against teams from the same nation’s opponent when away for the last 5 to 8 years ? i.e real madrid playing away against english teams and liverpool playing away against spanish clubs ..
Hi Sokrates,
it would be too good to be true if it would be that easy. Sorry, but it isn’t.
Two teams playing in the finals… if you would have head to head competitions from exactly the same teams in international competitions then you may consider these but you certainly haven’t. But only because a team has been playing another team from the same nation… No! This is absolutely not comparable.