Please Discuss…
Now and again Soccerwidow receives enquiries as to whether we consider ‘form’ in our match analyses and value bet recommendations.
The reader will have to excuse our increasing ignorance of the concept of ‘form’ and we dare to propose that the true meaning of the word is completely unclear and misunderstood by many.
Our approach for analysing matches and picking bets is the following:
Take the historical results of the last 25 games of each team (i.e. 25 home games if that team is playing at home and vice versa) and combine these with the head-to-head meetings of both teams at that venue over at least the last 10-years to compile an initial odds computation.
The probabilities of each betting option are then calculated (form plays no role at this stage!).
After the probabilities of each event are determined, we calculate what the corresponding odds should be and compare them with the market odds. Only bets where the market odds and our own calculations deviate are selected.
Usually there are four or five potential ‘value’ bet candidates, but sometimes there are none (meaning that our own odds computations correspond accurately to the market odds), and more rarely, there are more than five potential bets.
For making the final selections (picks), taking into account an element of ‘form’ becomes necessary.
We look at the last six matches in a little more detail and consider against which teams these results were achieved (whether relatively weaker or stronger teams). We may also read a few current articles about the teams in general such as the injury news, suspensions, et cetera, before establishing the final short-list of bets determined as holding value.
This approach seems to work admirably as the picks always seem to bring around 25% rate of return but, whether this strategy considers form sufficiently enough, is open to question.
In summary, the term ‘form’ is both misleading and mysterious. No-one seems to know precisely what it means.
What exactly does one understand by the term ‘form’ when applied to teams in a football match?
So, this article is just questioning the concept of ‘form’ and we wish to encourage readers to start a discussion on this topic with an attempt to define and explain what really is meant by it. There seems to be no real clarity either in the Internet or other literature.
Please drop us a line using the comments box below.
Thank you very much in advance, for your valued opinions and contributions!
Hi Panos,
1) Yes, right. Our system only considers the statistics in respect of the home team’s recent games and those of the away team. We don’t cross-over into taking both home and away form for each team into consideration.
2) We only look at a very select few European games where it is easy to find the respective club’s recent results/performances. If it’s a Premier League match, we only use the last 25 league games (excluding all cups). If it’s a domestic cup game, then the last 25 games including all domestic cup results.
3) Last 6 home league games for the home team and vice versa
4) Manually – an awful job, but once done, easy to keep updated
Re off topic Q’s = We’re just football (soccer) and nothing else, although the statistical principles we preach are transferrable to any other sport or event. We use mainly betting exchanges, Betfair & Betdaq, but also some traditional bookmakers and only ever the well-known names where liquidity and equity are never an issue. We make a living from betting, writing external articles and running Soccerwidow. Panos, your English is very good and don’t worry about it!
Thanks for your time and interest in Soccerwidow.
I am inclined to give more credit to the H2H history, where a relevant one there is.
A football club i think is a living entity and although player and trainers come and go, some teams have their absolute fear-nightmare opponents with which they cant win. It doesnt even matter if they play or not in the same league anymore, the psychological factor keeps one team failing to win because of the mutual history.
Hi Gustav,
if there is a h2h history I’m giving it up to 50% credit in my computations of probabilities, but only if there is a record of a minimum of 8 comparable matches in the last 10 years. These match predictions are actually the most successful of all my picks. Teams with no history are very difficult to predict with any accuracy and the results are very volatile.
An interesting case study would be the meeting Sheffield Utd vs. Scunthorpe from todays League One :D.
I say it would be interesting, because Sheffield somehow never managed to beat Scunthorpe, both teams relegated but Scunthorpe seems to be in free fall this season, while Sheffield will probably go back to the Championship.
Let’s wait and see what happens :-))
This is a particular difficult match to predict – both team relegated, stats for this season only against new teams, history h2h only for three games. Honestly, I would stay away from betting on this match if I were you 😉
to me seems like the bookmakers are up to take some money again 😀
I will be laying Sheffield Utd. :-))
😀 Good luck!
Thank You 🙂
Hi Soccerwidow , i have some questions for today.
1º In your bets , do you take into consideration this ?? (surely you have read it)
http://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf About goal superiority rating system.
1º-Sub-question; Do you use Table positions (as in the pdf mentioned) in your betting system to rate the teams?
2º (Offtopic question) , Some days ago you have said to me that you just use Excel to make the calculations , my question , Do you use Macros in your excel spreadsheets? , i know it’s a silly question , i have a small idea how to use excel (at least at very basic level) i have data base from 5 key leagues from last 10 years and i can try some strategies , i can do +, -, X, /, % , use =if( =And( =or( and use some filtres , nothing more , but i don’t know if necessary to use macros… because sometimes i have a feeling that i need to automatize some things.
pd: i always read your betfair blog (i use google translator) , you have given me some ideas to how to betting , (about form in football etc) but i dont have a real idea to how to get your percentages yet (for 1×2 , o/u 1,5 2,5 etc) ,i’m trying , some times close but not exactly like your percentages; and about soccer-rating.com i have several questions but these are questions for another day.
Greetings.
Hello again Panos,
Yes, we have previously read the PDF file you linked to, but “there are many ways to skin a cat”, and in our opinion, rating the strength of goals scored according to the strength of the opposing team is not as relevant.
So, to answer point 1 of your questions, no, we do not use this style of table positions system in our analysis. You can also consider Poisson distribution and a whole host of other statistical methods and instruments, but the key is what works for you and what is easiest to manage/maintain.
Yes, some of our spreadsheets contain macros just to save time – effectively, they are just formulas which produce a certain cell display depending upon the content of the figures entered into other parts of the tables. We recommend you concentrate on getting a reliable system in place before worrying about cosmetics such as macros at this stage. It’s easy to trust macros and their results too much and they will certainly cloud your judgment if you do not have 100% understanding of the mechanics of your own system before you begin using them.
Consider buying the Soccerwidow course: Betting on Under / Over ‘X’ Goals
This teaches you how to calculate accurate percentages, odds, probabilities and ultimately value. In your position, we think it is the best investment you can make to relieve you of the uncertainty you currently face. We are sure that the investment would be recouped fairly quickly as soon as you have mastered the course and have learned how to make regular profits with your betting. Additionally, we are here to offer full support with anything you do not understand within the course.
Hope this helps Panos, and thanks as always for your interest in our blog.
Soccerwidow’s Bloke
Good afternoon , i will consider the course but i must wait some months because i don’t know what is the future of betfair.com in my country ; is your tutorial -Basic Betting Course Under/Over- valid for 1X2 and Correct score or not?
I want to say, that this site is a great resource for betting ideas and statistical analysis! Really great work you have done here!
But one question keeps me wondering! So, you say that you take into consideration last 25 matches and some results are dated really long time ago! But to me this does not make any sense and I explain why – well teams that are playing today dont have a memory or any connection to games that they have played years ago! I see this as flipping coin, if you take random coin and it turns on one side 10 times in a row, the 11th time will still be a 50/50! So why do you take those games that have been some years ago in consideration, its the same as with coins? How is it different? If both teams have played lets say 50% of their last matches as draws, taking in consideration all the other aspects you mentioned as stadium recent games, would you really pick draw next game with odds lets say 2,5??? =) From stats its a value no? But in reality I think its different, because teams don’t have that kind of memory to take their last 25 games into playing their 26th game! Every game is random and it makes more sense to consider form only, because it indicates of problems or advantages of that team at that moment! This is how I see it, but maybe I am missing something and I am totally wrong!
Thanks!
Thanks for your question, Torres. Unfortunately, there is no quick answer, but you will find much food for thought in this blog.
You are partly right, team members may not have memories of particular matches, especially if they were played long ago, but the format of a club does not change as fast as players. Therefore, although football results are a kind of random events, but they are not coin tosses. A coin certainly doesn’t have a memory. However, if your throw the coin often enough you’ll find the expected 50/50 distribution. And if teams play often enough then you’ll find the dominating team will win the expected percentage of matches, for example.
Bad afternoon , since today , betting exchanges have been banned in my country , we can not use betfair.com , betdaq.com anymore . I thought it never would happen :(.
We can bet only in traditional bookies with local domain.
bye bye