2 July 2025

79 thoughts on “Sports Betting Course – Over/Under Goals – Product Specifics

  1. I got a little confused with %cv adjustments

    Say I got a range of fair odds 1.25 to 1.35 for over 1.5 market

    What odds is considered value back bet?
    What odds is considered value lay bet?

    Is it the same for over and under market ?

    Thanks

    1. Hi Teck Chuan,

      You only bought the course 2 days ago. It takes a genius to work through and completely understand the whole book in such a short period of time.

      Therefore, please work through the course from the beginning, do all the exercises, especially everything in part one, before you even look at part two (which is about betting though; I therefore understand that you probably read this part first and are now stuck) and then you will be able to answer your own question with great confidence.

      Good luck!

      It’s a lot to learn, I appreciate this. But learning and comprehending takes time!

  2. I found the first course an invaluable insight into how the markets are priced and how things work, and will certainly be looking to add this updated edition to my collection.

    Everything I have purchased so far from Soccerwidow has been excellent and very good value and I would have no hesitation recommending the products to friends and family.

    Many thanks!

  3. Hello Soccerwidow,

    Came across your site. Found out you got a new course to offer.

    I am really interested and wondering if you do also bet based on what you teach in the course? Can I find any P/L records on your site?

    Thanks,
    Paul

  4. I have just done over 100 matches of quartile betting, total goal market with %CV adjustments.
    Unfortunately I have not successfully gain a positive yield. At the moment about -3% yield, 20 units fixed risk/gain staking plan.

    Would you mind to help me out?

    1. I took historical odds statistics/results from Betexplorer. Their match result 1×2 odds is average bookmaker odds prior to match start.

    2. The leagues that I’m currently betting are MLS, Brazil, Japan, Sweden, China and Denmark.
    Majority is MLS Brazil and Japan. Have I selected wrong leagues? So far hits and misses for all leagues except for Brazil.

    3. I bet when 10% value, 70% hit rates appear. I have seen many instances where a back bet shows 1 – 5 % value, but lay bets shows a much higher value, 20 to 30%. Is it true that lay bets usually holds more value than back bets?

    4. MLS brazil and japan has 85 matches of data, Sweden china and denmark has only 75, is 75 matches data enough? I wonder this affects my odd computations.

    5. My spreadsheets will evenly divide data into 4 quartiles. Unlike what you have shown in your PDF where you divide them manually. Some 22 some 19. Do you think its ok?

    6. I would like you to have a look at my spreadsheets and my betting records, if thats OK.

    Please advise. I really hope to bet for long term.

    1. Hi Teck Chuan,

      Some leagues play statistically more reliable than others. Brazil definitely yes, Japan and China, no. It probably depends on their league format. But I cannot say that for sure.

      To you request to have a look at your spreadsheets… This is something I must unfortunately refuse. We have so much work that we don’t know what to do first; I cannot add anything more. Sorry! However, ask your questions here, and I’ll reply as much in detail as possible.

      Best wishes,
      Elena

      1. Hey there why is japan not a good choice?
        I compare leagues with 5 years average relative deviation. is that good enough?

        focusing on any market which has 3.5% and below deviation.

        1. Hi TeckChuan,

          Japan may be a good choice or not. Truly, I don’t know. Each league follows different patterns. What applies to one league does not necessarily applies to another.

          We mainly concentrate on the EPL and Bundesliga, and what I can say for sure is, that Japan has different patterns to those two leagues. But is is impossible to know every league in and out. For everybody, also for us. Therefore, as you are probably more interested for the Asian leagues that for the Europeans, then there is no reason why not to specialise on them. Just be careful to ‘mix and match’ in an intelligent manner, not randomly. Stick to a few leagues, learn everything about them, and become a master.

          Best wishes,
          Soccerwidow

  5. Results

    Excluding Sweden, Denmark and China leagues,

    41 matches of Major league soccer, yielded about 9%

    12 matches into Brazil league, yielded 29%

    13 matches into Japan league, yielded 2.4%

    MLS, Brazil and Japan has about 85 matches for quartile analysis.

    I would say this looks pretty promising. Thank you soccerwidow

    1. This course is the first of a series of books educating the ‘Fundamentals of Sports Betting’.

      There are more topics planned such as ‘Betting on Home, Draw, Away’, ‘Asian Handicap’, or ‘Betting In-Play’, and so on. Of course, it will take a while until all of these books have been written and published, but we reassure you that more course books are on their way.

      For the first volume we have chosen the Over/Under goal market because this is the easiest betting market to teach statistics and maths without the need to dive any further into much more advanced formulas and concepts. You will need a basic grounding before moving on to more complex calculations for bet types with multiple options such as 1×2, HT/FT and the Correct Score market.

      To answer your question… yes and no… The 1×2 market uses more or less the same stats and maths, but to reliable find value there is more to consider than explained in this Over/Under Goals course.

  6. I do not understand this part. please help.

    I bet when 10% value, 70% hit rates appear. I have seen many instances (betfair exchange) where a back bet shows 1 – 5 % value, but lay bets shows a much higher value, 20 to 30%. Is it true that lay bets usually holds more value than back bets?

    1. Hi TC,
      you cannot generalise that lay bets hold more value than back bets. It all really depends on the market price offered for the bet.

      Please continue working through the course, repeat the exercises, until you really understand everything.

      Just as an aside, I asked a trained actuary to read through the course and provide me with comments as we are currently looking for a publishing house. Here is one of her comments:

      Probably four different times, I tried to jump ahead and not do some portion of the earlier exercises, because I was convinced I knew the probability calculations already. And even though I do, I found I really needed to just work through everything methodically if I really wanted to understand it. I bet other readers probably try to do the same thing! However, going through everything slowly and steadily, it is very well laid out and each piece builds on the next, just as it is intended to.

      Therefore, please, work and work and work through this course, and continue working. You may even have to repeat the exercises several times in order to understand everything. Please really work from the beginning to the end, don’t skip a single chapter.

      Good luck!

    1. In order to keep this book down to a reasonable number of pages I have assumed that readers have had a little experience with statistics in the past. For example, you are familiar with terms such as ‘mean’ or ‘median’, can handle some graphs, and you may vaguely remember having seen a ‘distribution’.

      I have also anticipated that readers have a basic knowledge of mathematical operations and recognise signs used in algebra such as ‘x’, ‘y’, the summation sign, etc. Furthermore, I have assumed that the reader understands fundamentals such as finding the square root of a number, or squaring a number (or at least know where to find the right buttons to press on your calculator), and so on.

      But please don’t worry if you are challenged by maths or regard yourself as extremely rusty; I do explain things as thoroughly as possible as we go along.

      Of course, you’ll need a computer to read this PDF document, and having a calculation program such as Excel will certainly also help working through the exercises.

  7. Hi there,

    On Page 67 there’s a link: ‘Soccerwidow Value & Probability Calculator’, however it isn’t clickable on OSX. Could you tell me where it leads? 🙂

    Thanks!

  8. Another question: on page 69 you mention ‘Consistency with statistics is of vital importance’ with regards to using an unbroken chain of 25 matches, however, does this same principle apply to the H2H matches? Or can these be from any year as long as there are 6 or more in total?

    1. Of course, it would be better if you could get 6 consecutive matches, or even 10, but teams have the habit of dropping out of a league and coming back again. Therefore, just 6 (or more) from the last 10 years is enough. There isn’t a way round it.

      1. Thanks! And just to make sure – if a team has dropped out of a league 1 season due to degradation and got back in the next, would this render all future statistical analysis useless due to the break? Following the ‘consistency’ mantra seems to suggest so…?

        Or, can I interpret the ‘consistency’ better by reading it as ‘never skip any available data’?

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