Poll_living_betting_combined_2012.11.04
Recently we received an email from a distressed reader who after a very short time scale (just 2 months!) employing a strategy based on our Home-Draw-Away article, found that without warning several bookmakers (e.g. Boylesport, Stan James, Expekt, Betway, 888Sport, Sportingbet) cancelled his accounts and literally barred him from their e-premises.
Other bookmakers didn’t close his accounts but effectively also ended their relationship by limiting his stakes to ridiculously small amounts such as 2 € per bet.
Our initial response was that bookmakers are free to choose their clients and accounts belonging to customers who do not satisfy their business model are subject to cancellation. This was half accepted by the reader who stated you can read similar suggestions throughout the Web without ever finding a clear explanation but he was insistent and what he really wanted to know from us was WHY?
Therefore, this article attempts to answer in detail the legitimate question as to why customers are banned by bookmakers or accounts are limited.
However, we cannot promise that our conclusions will be agreeable to everyone because sometimes it is better not to know WHY, as dreams are sometimes all too easily shattered by the truth.
Warning: If you prefer to cling on to aspirations of becoming very rich one day with sports betting then perhaps you should stop reading this article now!
Doubtless, life is more bearable if there is some hope of better fortune involved. The reasons why bookmakers close accounts are banal. Using simple logic to interpret the business approach of bookmakers, the bigger picture almost certainly conveys a straightforward message to the masses of people with gambling dreams. Unfortunately, the truth which evolves is contrary to the popular belief system of becoming rich from betting.
Soccerwidow’s survey results for the question “Do you make money with betting?”
This poll has been present on the Soccerwidow site for many months. Let us take a look at the current vote scores to discover whether readers admit to making money from betting:
So far (as per November 2012), the survey has accumulated a total of 832 votes. Although this is a fairly representative sample, we cannot claim any scientific significance as it has not been carried out under controlled conditions.
Unfortunately, the survey also has a design error. It contains the option, “I make a living from betting”, but fails to quantify voters’ winnings over and above £5,000 (English site) or 5,000 € (German site). Therefore, we have to accept that anyone regularly winning more than £5,000 or 5,000 € per annum had no other option but to tick, “I make a living from betting”. Of course although this is insufficient for survival in most European countries, our readership is worldwide and it may be that 5,000 currency units is enough to live on in some countries.
Interpretation survey results for the question “Do you make money with betting?”
Nevertheless, the number of responses for “I make a living from betting” is quite eye-opening. Around 14% (13.57% English site, 14.36% German site: an independent perspective as hardly any visitors read both sites) indicate that they “make a living from betting”, or that they are winning more than £5,000/5,000 € per annum.
A common belief is that the percentage of successful gamblers is only 1-2% of the entire betting industry’s customer pool. This may be a misconception as our poll result gives the impression that the number of successful gamblers is actually ten times higher than generally assumed! Of course, in making this assumption we are taking for granted that people responded honestly with their vote.
Although our survey results may be skewed and therefore questionable, if this number reflects just a little of the truth, the financial consequences for bookmakers must be a real headache!
To translate the survey into numbers, we have prepared a very rough simulation of bookmakers’ profits/losses based on the poll votes:
The above figures are all rough estimates of the potential profits/losses bookmakers may face from individual customer clusters, assuming our poll reflects the true distribution.
In order to derive rules for the distribution we eliminated the answers “I do not bet” and “Other “, and for the distribution of losing clients we assumed a similar distribution as for the winners. The translation of the survey results into understandable figures is not so complicated, but a detailed explanation is beyond the scope of this article.
Of course, we reiterate that the main assumption is that our poll results have produced a representative picture of the market.
With this in mind, looking at the table we see around 19% of bookmakers’ customers regularly losing more than 5,000 currency units per year, while 15.6% of customers win more than 5,000 units. This is quite a tight operating margin for the bookmakers!
There is no need to have a degree in business studies to understand that it must be in every bookmaker’s interest to increase the number of customers in the first row (the big losers) and to reduce the customer numbers in the last row (the more professional, successful players).
Of course, it should be expected that the quality of customers is not equally distributed between the bookmakers. One bookmaker will have more “good” (profitable) clients than the next.
Despite the potential shortcomings of our survey, this reasoning somehow makes sense. There are more and more well educated people around and growing numbers who see sports betting not only as pure gambling, but as a mathematical challenge, for which there is a solution. With explosive growth the Internet has provided a mountain of sites available to the public providing historical data and statistics, and many households own at least one computer. There are also various calculation tools accessible, tipster services, software applications, odds calculation tutorials, etc.
The ultimate task the bookmaker has is weeding out the “risky” (successful) players who are a liability and retaining the “good” (profitable) customers.
You may have seen the movie “21” where successful casino players are targeted and banned from winning. The film may be pure fantasy but the reality is that betting firms eliminate you for being too successful, or for even showing you have the potential to succeed against them.
Risk Diversification
Any avid reader of this blog may already have stumbled across the expression “spreading the risk” a good number of times. The more bets included in a portfolio, the more risk is spread to better effect, and consequently the deviation from statistically experienced distributions is smaller, leading to more consistent success.
The same applies of course for bookmakers. The more customers, the more bets, the greater the diversification and spread, the smaller the variance, the stronger their betting book.
The question now is how big is a bookmaker’s betting portfolio? How far do they spread their risks?
Regrettably, bookmakers do not report their customer numbers and revenues, at least not to the public. Again, we must rely on estimates, and for this we are going to use the Alexa rank of various bookmaker Web sites.
Alexa is a service which puts all Web sites worldwide into a ranking order. The more popular a Web site, the smaller the Alexa rank. Today, Google.com is the most popular site in the world according to Alexa with a ranking of 1, followed by Facebook in 2nd place. Wikipedia ranks number 6 in the list. Betfair.com is found at 1,097, and Soccerwidow is at position 243,159.
Alexa seems to stop counting at 30 million and Web sites with a worse position than this display “n/a” (not applicable) in the Alexa toolbar.
The Alexa rank is not only an indication of popularity, but it can also be used to estimate (roughly) how many visits per day a site attracts.
For example, Soccerwidow’s ranking corresponds to around 500 visitors per day (Alexa rank 200,000 to 250,000). A few weeks ago, our Alexa rank dropped just for a couple of days to 190,000, but without any change in our visitor numbers. This shows that there are many sites constantly jostling for position, and no ranking algorithm is perfect.
Nevertheless, an Alexa rank of 100,000 means around 1,500 visitors per day, and an Alexa rank of 50,000 approximates to 5,000 daily visitors. Using these guidelines we can make a very rough estimate of the number of visitors online bookmakers receive:
With these rough estimates it is now possible to estimate the number of new customer sign-ups the bookmaker receives on average per day as well as the number of active customers.
Don’t forget, all these calculations are highly erroneous because firstly we are basing them on Alexa ranking and visitor estimates, and secondly, both new customer sign-ups and the number of active customers depend on a great variety of factors, such as the Web site design, its marketing, free bet offers, attractiveness of odds, presence on odds checking sites, etc.
We have therefore assumed in the above table that from the daily flow of visitors each online bookmaker receives, around 0.5% register as a new customer and around 5% of the daily visitors are active (i.e. place bets, play online casino, etc). The remaining 94.5% of visitors are passive, accessing the bookmaker’s site to check odds, watch live sports, read their blog, etc. This figure also includes those users who ‘bounce’ within a short period of accessing the site.
Of course, figures differ from bookmaker to bookmaker but nevertheless, the numbers provide a good idea of the size of the bookmaker for comparison purposes.
Again, just by applying common sense, it should be obvious to everybody that a bookmaker like Betway, for example, which sees around 1,500 visitors a day and probably averages 75 active clients daily, is facing a completely different set of challenges and risks than a giant like Bet365 which, accommodates daily around 1 million visitors with perhaps 50,000 active customers in all kinds of markets.
The lower the number of active customers, the less diversified the risk, the more restrictive risk management the bookmaker must make in order to retain solvency margins and avoid bankruptcy.
Hence, just by looking at the Alexa rank you should now be able to estimate the size of a bookmaker and judge how quickly they may have to denounce your account if you show signs of becoming successful at their expense.
If you read a few forums, you will find that Betway, Sportingbet and Stan James are pretty quick in closing accounts (Alexa ranking higher than 35,000), and that the slightest sign of professional gambling or arbitrage will cause dismissal. Expekt is a little more generous (Alexa ranking between 15,000 and 35,000), with fewer blogs seeming to suggest they close accounts quickly, whilst from the largest worldwide online bookmaker, Bet365, we have seen mixed reports.
Risk Management
This article has identified two important reasons why it is necessary for bookmakers to manage their risks with customers:
- There are in fact perhaps more professional and successful players than most people think who win larger amounts than the bookmakers are comfortable with.
- Especially the smaller bookmakers face the problem that their client portfolios are not large enough to be sufficiently diversified, and thus the risk of being severely damaged by a professional player is disproportionately high.
Thus, as with all professional companies, bookmakers develop guidelines and profiles on what type of customers they want and those they would rather avoid. These policies are based on strategic decisions and internal cost-benefit analysis, and they certainly differ from company to company.
The main belief of gamblers is that customers are screened especially if they operate surebets and/or arbitrage strategies. However, this is surely not the only criteria. There may be licensing issues in a certain region/country or perhaps a certain region is known for better educated customers than another, and therefore it is a higher risk for the bookmaker.
Therefore, the real reason for dismissal from a bookmaker may not necessarily lie on personal betting behaviour, and sadly it is probably enough to fall into a specific risk group.
Possible indicators for bookmakers that they are dealing with a professional punter:
- Time of betting – Professional gamblers are organized. They calculate their portfolio in due time before the game and bets are likely to be placed at certain times, for example, on the evening before kick-off. The bookmaker is aware of your time zone.
- Number of bets – Professional players diversify their risk and bet on a portfolio (placing many bets).
- Bet size – Professional punters have a business plan. They do not experiment with their bank. For example, odd stake amounts such as £24.43 indicate an arbitrage or matched bettor.
- Special offers / free bets – Professional players do not take every special offer or free bet. They will only take it if it fits into their business plan.
- Specialization – Professionals are characterized by planned action, specialization and a systematic approach. Some professionals will exclusively bet on value. Others specialize on outsiders markets, etc.
- Profitability – Professional gamblers take more money out of the bookmaker than they pay in during their life as a customer. This is of course not profitable for the bookmaker. But, how high the reporting threshold is probably varies from bookmaker to bookmaker.
- User behavior – Professional punters do not hang around. For example, they are not interested in watching live matches, a few horse races or a tennis match between their bets. They find their way around the bookmaker’s site quickly. They log in, locate their bet(s), place the stakes, and then move on to the next bookmaker.
There are certainly many more indicators through which a bookmaker may filter professional bettors. Just try and imagine being a bookmaker yourself and what precautions you would take to detect a potentially damaging customer as quick as possible in order to exclude them from your business.
Of course, this rigid style of investigation may catch out a few players who are not professionals (or perhaps not yet), but it is better for the bookmaker’s risk management to employ, “If in doubt, kick him out”, rather than run the risk of losing money.
Whenever we are asked what to do when you are unsure whether to place a certain bet or not, we always answer: If in doubt, do not bet. A bet not placed cannot lose! This also applies to bookmakers. If in doubt, better off without the potential liability. Bookmakers are not in business to speculate or to take uncalculated risks.
It is also sometimes discussed that there is an electronic “warning system”, allowing bookmakers to receive information indicating the possibility of a high risk client. For example, iesnare is such a system. However, removing the cookies from your computer will probably thwart this ‘big-brother’ threat.
The simple fact is that bookmakers will do anything to rid themselves of non-profitable customers. The goal of fortune seekers to gain long-term winning bets, or even make a living from betting, is absolutely contrary to the business plan of bookmakers.
However, what specific criteria individual bookmakers use to manage their book of risk and make decisions, is open to speculation. To publish and disclose such information would be the downfall of their risk management mechanism.
Is the Picture Clearer?
Hopefully, having read this article you will now understand that bookmakers MUST manage their risk to stay in business!
You should now know WHY bookmakers ban customers or limit accounts. It may not be a satisfactory answer because it puts the dream of “getting rich from sports betting” in an even more remote and difficult place to reach.
Once again we reiterate that getting rich quick from sports betting is illusory.
It is open warfare with the bookmakers and before you jump out of the trenches and cross no-man’s-land to fight them you had better understand odds calculation, be able to compose a betting portfolio, have several bookmaker accounts and develop a good strategy, etc. Oh, and you have to know the market like the back of your hand, preferably even better. If you are weak in any one of these areas, you are dead as soon as you raise your head above the parapet.
And whilst you spend many long, hard working hours (probably even years) slowly developing into a professional bettor, at the same time, you are becoming an enemy of the bookmakers.
Perhaps it is better to call off the war and do something more constructive with your time? Or instead of betting yourself, why not write articles about betting? Please contact us if you fancy publishing for Soccerwidow. Paper exercises also increase adrenaline levels. This we say from experience… 😉
About the Author
I initially used a system i brought that basically look for races with 7 or less horses then look on odds checker and find races with the over round 102% or less then back every horse in the race to win the same amount eg £200 with preferably best odds guaranteed bookmakers or max of 1 or 2 that arnt. By using bog bookmakers on average 1 race in 4/5 the winner odds have gone up since you placed the bet. Easy but highly effective. The downside is that because of using pence bookmakers possibly realise you are doing arbitrage and shut you down.
You mention Bet365 dont limit/ban accounts but i have had mine limited can only bet with pence.I think all bookmakers will ban you once you are winning regularly i have consistently made £300 to £500 per week over the last week.
I have now had to get friends to put money on for me but they soon get limited once we extract monies from them.
Hi Kevin!
Can you share your tips with me? I mean Can i bet on your tips since you Said you have been winning and that means you have good knowledge of the game. Just a favour 🙂
I have won consistently for over a year over £20k and can say without doubt that bookmakers do ban you when you win consistently. I cannot place bets with any of the following or very small often pence stakes.
Bet365, Sky bet, Totepool, Bet Fred, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Boylesport, Stan James, 888Sport, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Unibet, Red365 and Racebets.
To continue betting I have to share my methods with others and get them to put my money on until they get closed down again.
My question is surely this is unfair trading and cannot be legal and the Government should be looking in to unfair business practices (Ok to take bets from losing clients only).
When I ask why my bets are declined/restricted all I am told is that it is a traders decision and cannot be altered but no it isn’t because I win LOL.
I mentioned the 0-0 HT correct score purely because the odds are usually low – 2.3 to 3.3, so any wins in the bookmaker account won’t draw too much out of your exchange account.
Another thought is to place accumulator bets in the bookmaker account. Perhaps minimum trebles. Stagger the event times so that the first match finishes before the next starts, etc. Lay each leg of the accumulator, one at a time, until you have your original stake back (or accumulated stakes if one of your lay bets loses), and then let the remaining legs of the accumulator run their course. The more legs on the accumulator, the less your chance of winning it and of course, bookmakers just love accumulator bets.
I can think of many other ways to match bet your way out of a bookmaker balance and have tried numerous methods. In the end it’s just a numbers game and you will eventually transfer your entire balances to the exchange account.
Hi Anonymous,
You will need to analyse leagues to find the statistical patterns where outcomes lose regularly enough to back at the bookmaker and lay at the exchange. For example, the 0-0 HT score is the most common in every league you will look at, but it happens only 25-35% of the time, depending upon the league. You may need to take the odd hit where you cannot profit from the lay bet because of the odds difference, but ideally speaking you should be acting as an arbitrageur – trying to make profit, whichever side of the bet comes in.
Our Home, Draw, Away, Favourite and Underdog tables available in the Soccerwidow Store allow you to quickly see which half-time and full-time back and lay bets perennially make money every season, and which lose money every season. You will even see which individual teams to favour with back bets at the bookmaker and lay bets at the exchange in order to transfer your profits.
Good luck!
Hello Soccerwidow’s Bloke,
Thanks for your reply.
Surely the data is taken into account within the price (odds)? For the example you gave
“For example, the 0-0 HT score is the most common in every league you will look at, but it happens only 25-35% of the time, depending upon the league”
– the 35% of the time my selection does win in the bookmaker account, I shall be paid multiples of my bet. No matter what selection you chose, if the odds approximately represent the probability of the event, then you’d be moving money back and forth.
I think the only model I can think of to move profits is the matingale, when your ready to move your profits out, keep betting your entire account on a single bet, and lay this on betfair. Even this though, will result in you eventually making a fortune in your bookmaker account (when eventually you get lucky and get 5-8 selections right). But atleast this might lead the bookmaker to view you as a crazy gambler who will eventually go bust, so they might allow you to play without restrictions.
Thanks
Hi Nijinski,
I must admit that you are the first we have heard of to be restricted by Bet365.
Personally speaking, if we strike success with any bookmaker, rather than withdrawing money from their account, it is always best to try and stay under the radar and withdraw your profits gradually using matched betting techniques via a betting exchange such as Betfair or Betdaq (try to find an arbitrage situation where you will make profit over and above whatever commission rate is applicable).
Of course, losing money in this fashion from your bookmaker accounts (i.e. transferring it to your exchange accounts) will necessitate topping-up the bookmaker funds from time to time, which should keep them sweet.
Pinnacle is indeed one of the few bookies to openly encourage arbitragers and their low margins also make them a powerful player when it comes to best odds. This is especially so when you are looking to lay an outcome using the Asian Handicap +0.5 market, where they are particularly strong.
Take a look at our article “Why a Pinnacle Account is Essential” and decide for yourself. If you value the advice we have provided then we would be grateful if you would sign-up with Pinnacle using our link – the small affiliate incomes we receive from referrals help keep this site running.
Good luck Nijinski – please let us know how you get on!
Hello,
Could anyone suggest a model to transfer/ hedge out profits from the bookmaker account to the betting exchanges? Over the long term the fav and underdog is going to win a certain % of the time, and I think if I did this I’d just be transferring money back and forth.
Thanks.
I’ve also been restricted by bet 365, so much so that i can only win a maximum of £5 on any bet whether that be on a single or an accumulator. This just happened last week and after a little search on the web it’s apparently very common for 365 to do this. in fact they do this to such an extent that punters have nicknamed them Bet £3.65. So unfortunately they do restrict accounts heavily if they show any sign of being a savvy gambler. Which is a shame as they’re in-play markets and interface are streets ahead of any other in my eyes.
Hi A1 Cam
Unfortunately I’ve only just seen this.I must say I’m absolutely fascinated to read that bet365 will not lay you £5 on an accumulator bet!?
Would it be possible for you to give a clue as to why you think the is?
I mean I’m assuming that we are asking sports betting here and that you are not some genius bettor?
Presumably you were arbing,yes? Bookies hate arbers.
As far as the results of the survey is concerned the idea that 14 % of bettors on sport especially soccer are making a living at it is one of the most laughable things I’ve read on a serious website ever.
They aren’t.
The 2/3 % figure that is much quoted isn’t even the number of people who make a living from betting.
It’s the proportion of people who make a lifetime profit from betting!
Of course it’s a made up figure but still.
Gosh,on rereading A1Cams post it seems he can’t even get £5 on an acca with bet365.,
£5 is the most he can get back even from an acca!!!
Curiouser and curiouser.
I actually placed a very large accumulator with them on Monday so clearly they consider me to be one giant MUG.
Then again I don’t arb. 🙂
I have been closed down by Victor Chandler and Boyle Sports and virtually closed down by Ladbrokes due to their restrictive practices. Its a nightmare when you can see an opportunity and then realise you cant take advantage.
I have just been restricted by Bet365 this week. The article says this has never been heard of before. I realise there is a time lag between the article and today so am I still the first and only one to be banned by Bet365?
I will be looking into the writers options of the Asian markets and will be opening a Pinnacle account.
Its a wonderful site loaded with remarkable material. I’m glad i stumbled upon it. Coming back to the topic of discussion, i personally have been barred from many sportbooks and ultimately i turned to Asian books. They have a motto, “Bet as much as you want and win as much as you want”. They would never close accounts,and closing of accounts are unheard of here in asia.
I’m from Singapore and there are many professional bettors here. Bookies here are known to accept bets as big as $ 5 million up. They don’t limit accounts because it would apparently be an insult to the business in terms of the asian context. I guess its because the base collections can run into the billions of dollars so limiting any account becomes a negligible option. Also,the betting rings span across the whole of asia and bets could be directed to different syndicates to spread the risk. Pinnnacle sportsbook has been added to the agent list here in Asia as the only sportbook that links up to the asian agent system.
Most of the wagers here are taken on the Asian handicap which can be wonderful to study. Infact many base their conclusion to a match outcome to the monitoring of the odds fluctuations of the asian handicap for the day. This combined with hard past stats can be a real deal to pin-pointing the outcome of a match. Unfortunately,through the years the bookies have evolved through technology and a smarter betting market.The new era or odds reading is much challenging as one has to understand the true value of the teams of face the warth of the bookie odds traps.
In conclusion,the asian bookies believe that it is the system that has to be fine tuned to beat a fierce storm . It will be wrong to cut out sharp bettors who win often because that would only go to show that the system has a flaw. It is always better to fine tune the engine instead of getting rid of a paying customer,and that is how the world of soccer betting has been evolving through the decades. They have to balance marketing (pulling in new bettors to the system) and profit raking( whacking the general betting population). The fact is Marketing and profit raking cant be done simultaneously. So with this concept, there is really no real need to put a stop or cut accounts of bettors.
Very interesting to read this, Mike, since I am currently thinking of moving out of my country in order to make serious money from betting. I am among the mentioned 15% who regularly make profit and have to watch out not to make too much.
I would thank you if you could provide information on names of bookies I could have a look at there in Singapore or all over Asia.
Thanx
Hello,
I would like to challenge your basic premise that the profit/loss of a bookmaker is directly proportional to the numbers of losing customers minus winning customers. The PnL of a book, in my opinion, is directly proportional to how well balanced the book is. Here is an example –
3 players betting on a soccer game, player1 bets on teamA, player2 on draw and player3 on teamB. TeamB wins.
Would the bookmaker now ban player3 if he happens to make more money over time as compared to the other players? I don’t think so, I think that player3 is very valuable to the bookie, as players1&2 because together they balance the game/book.
We all know that the betting public – soccer fans collectively put down alot of money on the fav team. For the bookie to make a profit on a game/book he requires either some punters to bet the underdog/draw or hedge the risk out with other bookies/exchanges.Regardless of which punters make/lose money, the bookie only makes money when the book is balanced. If the book is not balanced, the bookie is taking risks – which is not their business model.
I understand that some punters have their accounts blocked, and my best guess is because their betting styles is causing the book to be unbalanced. And when a bookie looks at a very profitable account that is causing them problems, they limit the account.
I would appreciate your thought on this.
Thanks.
No problem – challenging is always good! Only this will help people to start thinking outside the box. 🙂
Regarding your question, the article does not say that the basic premise is that the profit/loss of a bookmaker is directly proportional to the numbers of losing customers minus winning customers in one soccer game. What I said is that bookmakers balance their books in order to make a profit. Bookmakers books (portfolios) are huge meaning that risk is diversified between hundreds or even thousand of sports events; and risk is not limited to one individual soccer game, or one league only.
It’s the fans who don’t follow a business model and easily lose sight of the overall objective by getting bogged down in small details, focusing on predicting an outcome of an individual match rather than balancing their own portfolios.
very interesting that you mention ” the bookie only makes money when the book is balanced, if the book is not balanced , the bookie is taking risks”
so how is this different to sports arbitrage trading ?, he has enough on all outcomes to ensure that whoever wins he will make a profit , exactly the same as an arbitrage trade??
donar
A quote from Pinnacle Sports web page:
“About Our Approach – A Unique Bookmaking Model
Pinnacle Sports operates a unique low margin-high volume model that enables us to offer the best odds, and highest betting limits online. This distinguishes us from a traditional bookmaking approach, because we don’t take positions, but let markets shape themselves. This is only possible because we have refined a unique combination of exclusive technology, and expertise in odds-setting, that no competitor has been able to match, let alone better!
Winners Welcome – Why We Need Sharp Players
Unlike our competitors we actively welcome winners. We aren’t afraid of successful players, we need them. Our model requires the volume that serious bettors bring, and the betting behaviour of sharp bettors informs us, giving us the confidence to provide the best odds and highest betting limits online.”