This spreadsheet contains the calculations for international club tournaments between teams with no head-to-head history, applicable for competitions such as the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or even the South American Copa Libertadores.
WITH Asian Handicap
WITHOUT Asian Handicap
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The instructional video concentrates on the Home-Draw-Away odds section explaining the calculation of expected odds, and comparing them to market prices. We also show you where to find records of the opening bookmaker odds and their changes over time, and how to interpret this information.
Later in the video we identify a method of easily identifying matches to analyse with the spreadsheet, those with possible strong discrepancies in their odds, by looking at the money matched and waiting to be matched for bets in the betting exchanges.
This is an educational video, aimed at those who wish to further understand odds calculation, and would like to know how market prices are set.
This video is about: Calculation of 1X2 (Home-Draw-Away) True Odds in UEFA Champions League games & How Market Prices are set
The examples used in the video are the UEFA Champions League matches Real Madrid vs. Manchester City, Dortmund vs. Ajax and Manchester United vs. Galatasaray.
The spreadsheet can be used to calculate the ‘true’ odds for any match of your choice for international tournaments between individual clubs. The accuracy of the calculations improves if the teams in question have a similar recent history in the tournament under analysis (for example, both team’s last 10 international club competition games have all been in the Champions League).
All you need to do is fill-in basic data:
- the best odds you can find for the various betting options dealt with by the spreadsheet
- the home team’s last 30 home game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
- the away team’s last 30 away game half-time and full-time scores in their domestic league and all other competitions (no friendlies)
- the home team’s last 10 international club tournament home game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
- the away team’s last 10 international club tournament away game half-time and full-time scores (or if not 10, as many within the last 5 years as can be gathered)
The team stats can easily be found in sites such as www.soccerway.com or www.oddsportal.com.
Use a combination of an exchange site such as www.betfair.com and www.oddschecker.com for the best odds.
For each of the following events, the expected mathematical ‘value’ is automatically flagged up together with the expected probability (statistical mean) of winning the bet:
- Match Result (home-draw-away) at both half-time and full-time
- Draw No Bet
- Win to Nil
- Clean Sheet
- Both Teams to Score
- Over/Under ‘X’ Goals
- Half-time/Full-time
- Half-time and Full-time Correct Scores
- The full realm of Asian Handicap options including all the half and quarter point thresholds
The spreadsheet calculates ‘true’ odds (expected probabilities), and compares market prices with the statistical probability of winning the bet to show you whether there is any ‘value’ in the bet and therefore whether it is financially worthwhile undertaking.
It should be noted that the spreadsheet is not a tool for automated betting. Although the tables provide vital information to improve the accuracy of predictions, the figures do not substitute for reading salient news and applying good judgment in addition.
Required Acumen
Ideally, you should already possess a basic understanding of odds and how they are calculated. The spreadsheet is a tool to identify potential bet candidates.
However, you need to understand what is meant by the term ‘value’ and also have a good idea how to spread risk with a well-structured betting portfolio. The spreadsheet is intermediate level and you should become entirely familiar with its mechanics before committing money to any bet recommendations suggested by it.
Good Excel skills would also be an advantage.
For beginners we offer a starter course: Soccerwidow’s Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds: Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals, which is a step-by-step guide including exercises and tutorials on how to understand odds calculation. Although the example used is the popular over/under ‘X’ goals market, the principles can be just as easily applied to any market of your choosing.
Full support for all of Soccerwidow’s products is always provided should you require pre- or after-sales assistance or clarification. Feel free to ask any question via the Comment section below.
Hi,
Is this calculation also applicable for Domestic Leagues?
This spreadsheet has been developed for the calculation of odds for international club competitions. It has not been tested yet for international club friendlies, domestic cup competitions, or league matches without H2H history. However, it may produce some accurate results in certain constellations.
Domestic league matches between teams with ample H2H history are calculated using the following spreadsheet: True Odds & Value Detector: League Games with H2H History
Ok thanks. I did not notice that post earlier.
Hi SoccerWidow,
Kudos to you for having such a fantastic website! I enjoyed myself while sifting through the countless articles that you have with regards to viewing soccer betting.
I am also in the sportsbook trade where we do see consistent winners ranging form a ROI of 12 percent (at least ) on dead ball matches to ROI of 5-6 percent on live matches.
Given your expertise , would you think if it is possible for a mathematician or statistican to calculate value bets in the midst of a live game ?
Regards,
Thomas
If somebody has sufficient mathematical knowledge as well as plenty (!) of time at hand for research, it’s certainly possible.
However, I don’t really understand you.
You write: “I am also in the sportsbook trade where we do see consistent winners…”
Which sportsbook trade are you in, and why do you ask if you see those consistent winners?
Not sure if u have heard of this Asian sportsbook ,IBCbet .
The reason for asking if it is possible for a mathematician or statistican to calculate value bets in the midst of a live game is because they have other fields in their calculations unlike yours such as : total shots , total shots on target , attack ,dangerous attacks (correct me if i am wrong, thanks!)
Consistent winners on dead ball matches have a few notable personalities in Asia which I have heard and seen their predictions. However, you are the first person to actually ‘show me the light ” in deriving these calculations. I have almost been glued to your website since 2 days ago .Will defintely get your avaliable products once I am done reading all your avaliable articles .
Once again ,thank you for your willingness to share your expertise and knowledge .